Donald Trump is losing by 16 in a new CNN poll. And that's not the worst news. - CNNPolitics

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  jbb  •  2 weeks ago  •  4 comments

By:   CNN

Donald Trump is losing by 16 in a new CNN poll. And that's not the worst news. - CNNPolitics
With less than a month before the November election, President Donald Trump has hit a new low: He now trails former Vice President Joe Biden by his largest margin (16 points) of any CNN poll conducted in this entire election.

It looks like Biden has already amassed an insurmountable lead...


S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



(CNN)With less than a month before the November election, President Donald Trump has hit a new low: He now trails former Vice President Joe Biden by his largest margin (16 points) of any CNN poll conducted in this entire election.

Which, if you are the President or his supporters, is bad! Like, really bad! But it's actually not the worst news in the latest CNN/SSRS poll. That honor goes to this: 9 in 10 likely voters (90%) in the CNN poll say that their minds are made up when it comes to which candidate they will be voting for this fall. A meager 8% of those likely voters said they might change their mind while 1% (who are these people???) said they had no preference between the candidates as of yet. What that number makes clear is that there just aren't all that many persuadable voters out there. Which makes sense. Trump has been the most polarizing president in American history -- essentially driving weak partisans and people who thought of themselves as independents into the Republican or Democrat camps. (According to Gallup, 89% of Republicans approved of the job Trump did in his third year in office while just 7% of Democrats felt the same -- an 82-point delta.) At issue for Trump then is not just that he is losing to Biden by double digits nationally and is behind or, at best, tied in virtually every swing state. It's that there just aren't many people who haven't already decided who to vote for or even see themselves as potentially open to changing their opinion. The die appears to be cast. Read More Consider the CNN numbers again. Less than 1 in 10 likely voters say that they might change their minds on a candidate between now and when they vote. Might doesn't mean "will." And all 8% of those voters open to persuasion are not currently voting for Biden! There are plenty of people who say they may change their minds who are for Trump right now. In fact, 10% of Trump supporters said they might change their mind on a candidate as compared to 8% of Biden supporters, according to the CNN data. It's also worth noting here that nothing that has happened over the past year has fundamentally altered the dynamic of this race. Yes, Trump's struggles to effectively deal with the coronavirus and his tin-eared response to the protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd in Minnesota in May caused his numbers to dip. And yes, his numbers recovered somewhat over the summer. And yes again, his numbers have dropped in the wake of a disastrous debate performance last week. 180921091202-cillizza-youtube-overlay-tease.jpg

THE POINT -- NOW ON YOUTUBE!

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But the truth is that these MASSIVE events have only effected the race at the margins. Biden has, for much of the past few months, held a high single-digit/low double-digit lead over Trump nationally. A strong majority of Americans both disapprove of Trump's job performance and, specifically, how he has handled the Covid-19 crisis. (In the latest CNN poll, 59% said they trusted Biden more to handle the coronavirus pandemic while 38% named Trump.) The truth of the matter is that this race hasn't been all that close for a very long time. And Trump's path to an upset victory -- as he scored in 2016 -- is very narrow simply because there are just not that many people who are even open to his closing message -- whatever that is. To pull off a win -- or to even get within striking distance -- Trump needs to execute a two-step process: 1) Peel voters away from their certainty of voting for Biden and then 2) Convince them to vote for him. Is it possible? Trump proved almost anything is possible four years ago. But 2020 is not 2016. And the lack of undecided and persuadable voters is a massive impediment to a Trump comeback.


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JBB
1  seeder  JBB    2 weeks ago

I am not singing Happy Days Are Here Again, yet...

But, I am humming it and remembering the words!

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
1.1  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  JBB @1    2 weeks ago

That is going on the assumption that political polls can be believed to begin with which I do not. Political polls are highly subjective and results are largely dependent on who commissions the polls. The fallacy of said polls are the that the pollsters may poll a number of people from 100 to 1000 people in a particular demographic area. Negative responses are most likely circular files. The pollsters then try to give the impression that said poll results represent a large majority segment of the country's population. For those reasons alone I do not trust said polls no matter which side of the aisle they come from.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
2  Buzz of the Orient    2 weeks ago

I am SO looking forward to November 3rd, because it's THEN that the REAL circus is going to start.  I'm glad I'm on the other side of the world...

 
 
 
pat wilson
3  pat wilson    2 weeks ago

Every presidential election that I can remember has been very close, within 3 to 5 % points yet people always talk about landslides. Here are some "landslides" :

7. 1804 Thomas Jefferson 176 162 14 0.841 92.05%
6. 1972 Richard Nixon 538 520 17 0.933 96.65%
5. 1984 Ronald Reagan 538 525 13 0.952 97.58%
4. 1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt 531 523 8 0.970 98.49%
3. 1820 James Monroe [d] 232 231 1 0.991 [e] 99.57%
2. 1792 George Washington [f] 132 132 77 1.000 [e] 100%
 
 
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