NPR Electoral Map: Biden Expands Lead Over Trump In Swing States : NPR


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Via:  jbb  •  2 weeks ago  •  20 comments

By:   NPR. org

NPR Electoral Map: Biden Expands Lead Over Trump In Swing States : NPR
At this point, Biden leads nationally and in enough key swing states to reach 270 electoral votes. Still, Trump remains within striking distance in several important places.

Even if Trump wins all the remaining tossup states he still loses. Biden's lead is that big now...

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T

October 9, 20205:01 AM ET Heard on All Things Considered

Domenico Montanaro

NPR Electoral Map: Biden Lead Widens Again With Less Than A Month To Go

It has been a rough couple of weeks for President Trump.

His performance in the first presidential debate was widely panned; Trump and several members of his inner circle contracted COVID-19; and then the president said he was pulling out of the next debate, after the debate commission said it wanted the candidates to appear from remote locations, citing safety concerns in the wake of Trump's diagnosis.

The latter has left the fate of the remaining debates in doubt, as the campaigns and commission scramble to figure out how to proceed.

Given all of that, Trump's standing in the NPR electoral map analysis has gotten worse. With states that are determined to be likely to go for either candidate or leaning toward them, Democrat Joe Biden now leads Trump, 290-163.

Here are the moves we've made in this month's map:

Wisconsin: Toss-Up —> Lean D
Arizona: Toss-Up —> Lean D
Nebraska 2nd Congressional District: Toss-Up —> Lean D
Iowa: Lean R —> Toss-Up
Nebraska 1st Congressional District: Likely R —> Lean R
Missouri: Likely R —> Lean R
Alaska: Likely R —> Lean R

That puts Biden — right now — above the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win a majority of the 538 available, leaving Trump with an uphill climb to win reelection. It comes with less than a month to go in the election — and with millions of votes already cast.


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To put Biden's lead in context, even if Trump wins all the remaining toss-up states, it would not be enough for him to win. The president would need to make gains in the next three weeks in states now leaning toward Biden. Of course, Trump was able to do so against Hillary Clinton in 2016, particularly in the Upper Midwest.

We will update our map in a couple of weeks before the election - and things very well may shift and tighten between now and then, as they did in 2016.

Fueling Biden's lead, according to national and statewide surveys, continues to be the former vice president's overperformance with white voters, suburban voters, independents and seniors, all groups Trump won in 2016.

Biden is showing strength in the Midwest and is also eating into Trump's margins in traditionally red states. Biden is unlikely to win places like Alaska, Missouri, Montana and South Carolina, but being more competitive there than Hillary Clinton was in 2016 is putting him on track to surpass Clinton's vote total and popular vote margin of 3 million more than Trump.


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It should be noted, however, that Trump remains within striking distance, especially in the Sun Belt states, across the South and West.

What's more, Democrats are worried about mail-in voting, not because of fraud, but because of the high rate of disqualification of mail-in ballots because technicalities like not signing in the correct place. Democratic voters are saying by far greater margins than Republicans that they're more likely to vote by mail, rather than in person, because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Below is a deeper look at what we've changed and what we didn't and why.

What we changed

Toss-Up to Lean D

Wisconsin: Polls have shown a consistent bent toward Biden this cycle. We had been reluctant to move it to Lean D, given Wisconsin's high percentage of whites without a college degree, a strongly pro-Trump group. But Biden's lead has remained consistent, up by 7 points now on average and above 50%.

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Arizona: This is a closer race than Wisconsin with Biden up 4 points on average. It's just on the edge of remaining in the Toss-Up category, but here are a couple of points for why we moved it: (1) Trump hasn't led here since early March and (2) when you look inside the polls, Biden is consistently doing better than Clinton did in Maricopa County, where two-thirds of the state's vote comes from, and he's even ahead of Clinton's margins in Pima County, the traditionally Democratic area where Tucson is. What's more, Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly has a wider lead in his race against incumbent GOP Sen. Martha McSally, which could help Biden's chances as well.

Nebraska-2: Despite its Republican lean and the Democrat in the district's U.S. House race polling close or behind the GOP incumbent, this Omaha-area district has continued to favor Biden.

Lean R to Toss-Up

Iowa: This is a state that should favor Trump, given he won it last time and its significant white, non-college-educated population. But polls have shown it neck and neck, with Biden ahead in some recent surveys.

Likely R to Lean R

Nebraska-1: This district borders the 2nd Congressional District, encompassing the college town of Lincoln and some Omaha suburbs. It should be a district that goes to Trump easily, but polls have shown the race within 5 points there.

Missouri: This used to be a traditional battleground state but has has fallen off in the last two election cycles. In 2008, Republican John McCain beat Barack Obama there by just 3,700 votes out of almost 3 million. The key here is if Biden continues to overperform with whites, margins will become tighter in red states and in red counties in swing states.


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Alaska: The tightening margins in these kinds of places are signs of a potential wave. We'll see if that holds over the next few weeks, but right now, Biden is closer in the polling average in Alaska than Trump is in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or Nevada. Trump has got his work cut out for him.

What we didn't move but are watching closely

Texas: While the polls show a race within the margin of error, Trump has been near or above 50% and leading in the polling average. The Biden campaign is looking to make things interesting, spending $6 million on ads in the state. So let's see if they move the numbers and where things are in a couple weeks. But given Texas' voting history and the GOP's statewide political power, this one still leans toward Trump for now.

South Carolina, Kansas, Montana: All of these are traditionally red states that Trump won by significant double-digit margins in 2016. But each of them is within 10 points in the race between Trump and Biden, according to the polls. All of that points to a rising sea level for Biden. Does it stay that way?


Why The 2020 Presidential Election Is Not 2016

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio: These all remain Toss-Ups. The southeastern Sun Belt states were expected to be very competitive, but Ohio was thought to be trending steadily Republican. That tells you a lot about the landscape and Trump's struggles in the Midwest.

Florida, at one point this summer, looked as if it was leaning toward Biden, but there is almost no path to reelection for Trump without Florida. So his campaign doubled down there and the race tightened, though a couple of polls this week have shown Biden opening up a lead again.


jrDiscussion - desc
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1  seeder  JBB    2 weeks ago

Biden's lead is becoming insurmountable for Trump!

Release The Kraken
1.1  Release The Kraken  replied to  JBB @1    2 weeks ago

OMG you said the same thing on the other site. "I'm With Her"   Guaranteed win coming!


1.1.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  Release The Kraken @1.1    2 weeks ago

This is not 2016, Biden is not Clinton [deleted]

1.1.2  MrFrost  replied to  JBB @1.1.1    2 weeks ago

The right wing has convinced me to not vote for Hunter or Hillary so I am voting for Joe Biden. 

Release The Kraken
3  Release The Kraken    2 weeks ago

NPR ran exactly the same article in 2016, they really just changed the name from Hillary to Biden. LOL

Release The Kraken
4.1  Release The Kraken  replied to  MrFrost @4    2 weeks ago

That makes sense, only the betas are afraid to get out in public. A Biden bumper sticker and a masked driver go hand in hand. Evidently car to car transmission is a thing. 


Just Jim NC TttH
4.2  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  MrFrost @4    2 weeks ago

Not a surprise at all. Some Dems love 'em some lazy mail in convenience it seems

4.2.1  Tessylo  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @4.2    2 weeks ago

So,  your 'president' voted by mail.

He falls into the lazy department, also the big fat ugly sloppy pig department.  

I'm very fortunate that I don't have to vote by mail.  My location to drop off my ballot and also to vote in person is right across the street from me.

I'm fortunate that way but many folks had to stand in line for hours to vote early, thanks to their republican representatives who closed many voting locations in order to suppress the vote.  

Because some know they can't win unless they lie, cheat, and steal.

Just Jim NC TttH
4.2.2  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Tessylo @4.2.1    2 weeks ago
So,  your 'president' voted by mail.

Absentee ballot. Because he lives in D. C. and is a legal resident of Florida. Would you rather he fly down on election day to vote and at taxpayers expense? I think not.....but then again, it could be a talking point for those who search for such things to be offended by.

I'm fortunate that way but many folks had to stand in line for hours to vote early, thanks to their republican representatives who closed many voting locations in order to suppress the vote.

Not to suppress the vote. Here in NC there are many less locations for early voting than on election day. Too expensive? to open up and pay all of the workers perhaps? And history would show that many less people, at least in the past, have early voted. Who expects 120,000 (Georgia) people so show up on the very first day. And I would hope they took a vacation day.....................IF they have a job at all.

4.2.3  JohnRussell  replied to  Tessylo @4.2.1    2 weeks ago

I tend to think that everyone should vote in person. Less chance for confusion that way.  However I dont blame people for wanting to vote by mail when they have to stand in line for 4 or 5 hours to cast their vote in person. 

5  Tessylo    2 weeks ago


The 'president' knows that when we all vote, HE LOSES.  He has said so.  

Just Jim NC TttH
5.1  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Tessylo @5    2 weeks ago

So now you listen to him?


And of course you have a link to him saying that right? RIGHT??

5.1.1  Tessylo  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @5.1    2 weeks ago

So you admit trumpturd said it.  

Good job [ deleted ]

Trump just said what Republicans have been trying not to say for years

The president revealed his real concern about mail-in voting: He’s worried Republicans will lose more elections

Just Jim NC TttH
5.1.2  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Tessylo @5.1.1    2 weeks ago

And just where did he say "I will lose". He said it would lead to the end of the Republican party.


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