Hispanic Voters Now Evenly Split Between Parties, WSJ Poll Finds - WSJ
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The nation’s large and diverse group of Hispanic voters is showing signs of dividing its support between Democrats and Republicans more evenly than in recent elections, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds, a troubling development for the Democratic Party, which has long counted on outsize Hispanic support.
One year after giving Democratic House candidates more than 60% of their vote, according to polls at the time, the Journal survey found that Hispanic voters are evenly split in their choice for Congress. Asked which party they would back if the election were today, 37% of Hispanic voters said they would support the Republican congressional candidate and 37% said they would favor the Democrat, with 22% undecided.
Hispanic voters were also evenly divided when asked about a hypothetical rematch in 2024 of the last presidential contenders , with 44% saying they would back President Biden and 43% supporting former President Donald Trump . In 2020, Mr. Biden won 63% support among Hispanic voters , nearly 30 points more than Mr. Trump, according to AP VoteCast, a large survey of the presidential electorate.
Hispanic voters account for about 1 in 8 eligible voters and are one of the fastest-growing groups in the electorate, factors that compound Democratic fears about any deterioration in support.
“Latinos are more and more becoming swing voters.…They’re a swing vote that we’re going to have to fight for,’’ said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, whose company conducted The Wall Street Journal Poll along with the firm of Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio.
Messrs. Anzalone and Fabrizio said the poll showed that economic issues were the main concern among Hispanic voters, drawing Hispanic men, in particular, toward the GOP.
Hispanic voters in the survey ranked economic issues as the priority for Mr. Biden and Congress to address. Hispanic men said Republicans had the better economic policy, by a margin of 17 points. Hispanic women, by contrast, said Democrats had better economic plans, by a 10-point margin.
A majority of Hispanic men said they would like to return to the policies that Mr. Trump pursued as president, while a majority of Hispanic women said they would rather stick with Mr. Biden’s policies.
“You see in this poll that there’s a group of Hispanic men who were without a doubt enticed by Trump and have become more Republican. We have more work to do on that,’’ said Mr. Anzalone, referring to Democratic candidates and their allies.
Mr. Fabrizio said: “This says to me that the economy matters, particularly to Hispanic men. The economy and economic factors are driving them.”
The survey is the first under a new Wall Street Journal Poll that will explore the forces driving American politics and changes in society. The firms of Messrs. Fabrizio and Anzalone will work together on surveys on the political landscape.
The Journal survey included 1,500 registered voters, including 165 Hispanic voters. The margin of error for the Hispanic sample was plus or minus 7.6 percentage points.
Strategists in both parties have been working since the 2020 election to calculate the size of the shift among Hispanic voters to the GOP and to understand its causes. One in-depth study, by Catalist, which compiles and analyzes voter data for Democratic candidates and progressive causes, found that Hispanic voters swung toward Mr. Trump by 8 points compared with 2016 in the two-party vote.
Shifts in some parts of the country were larger. In its analysis of the 2020 electorate, Equis Labs, which studies the Latino electorate, found swings toward the GOP of 20 points in parts of Florida’s Miami-Dade County; of 12 points in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas; and double-digit swings in parts of the Northeast. In South Florida, the shift was big enough to flip two congressional seats to the GOP, the firm concluded.
In last month’s election for governor in Virginia , AP VoteCast found that Republican Glenn Youngkin, who won the race, outpolled his Democratic opponent among Hispanic voters.
In the Journal survey, Hispanic voters had a negative outlook on the economy, with 25% saying it was headed in the right direction and 63% saying it was headed in the wrong direction. That 38-point gap compared with a 31-point gap among all voters.
Hispanic voters saw Republicans in Congress as better able than Democrats to handle some economic issues, such as reining in inflation and cutting the federal deficit. They also saw Republicans as best able to secure the border.
The Hispanic voters saw Democrats in Congress as better able to control the Covid-19 pandemic, rebuild infrastructure and make healthcare more affordable.
The results showed Hispanic voters differing little from the overall electorate in their political preferences. Hispanic voters mirrored the overall voter pool, for example, when asked how Mr. Biden was handling his job. Some 42% approved of the president’s job performance and 54% disapproved—in line with the 41% approval and 57% disapproval among the broader voting public.
POLL METHODOLOGY NOTE
- The Wall Street Journal Poll was conducted by the firms ALG Research and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, who surveyed 1,500 respondents, drawn from a list of known, registered voters, from Nov. 16-22. Half the respondents were interviewed on their cell phones. One quarter were reached by text on their cell phones and completed an internet survey. One quarter of respondents were interviewed by landline phone. The margin of error for the full sample was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
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Ronald Reagan once said, “Hispanics are Republicans, they just don’t know it yet.”
I think we can simply call them Americans.
Exactly and so much for Texas turning blue since a lot of this change is there and pretty much everywhere but California
Liberals have been claiming Texas is turning for years now.
And just like their claim that Democrats always win when voter turnout is high is wrong, so is this claim.
Just let the democrats rule for 10 months and we didn't have to worry about Texas anymore!
The press had a lot of Hispanics (legal and not) in genuine fear for their lives when Trump was running in 2016, and that fear remained for quite a while. But at this point, it should be clear that he’s no scarier for Hispanics than the Democrats are. Democrats righteously pontificate about the border and “immigrants who have misplaced their papers,” but other than that, they don’t have much to say that might be of interest. Furthermore, Democratic administrations (Obama and Biden) are happy to ignore or deport people at the same rate or higher than any Republican administration.
So, once you get past the issue of immigration (which doesn’t directly impact that many actual Hispanic voters), what are the issues of concern?
Well, Covid was big last year. But a year later, it’s pretty clear that Biden isn’t getting rid of it any faster than Trump was, making him less of a savior than was advertised. So that probably doesn’t sway many people anymore because it’s not apparent that anyone has a plan to actually get anything done.
Other than that, the issues are the same as they are for anyone else in any other year. Jobs. Economy. Crime. Housing. Healthcare. Infrastructure.