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Omicron wave: Have Covid cases finally peaked in the U.S.?

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  perrie-halpern  •  2 years ago  •  91 comments

By:   Kaitlin Sullivan

Omicron wave: Have Covid cases finally peaked in the U.S.?
Has the omicron wave peaked in the U.S.?

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



Covid-19 cases are finally falling in the United States, welcome news after nearly two months of skyrocketing case counts driven by the highly infectious omicron variant.

"Nationally, the case numbers are coming down, which I consider an optimistic trend," Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a White House Covid briefing Friday.

But the falling numbers don't mean Americans are out of the woods.

That's because, as cases fall, a huge number of people will still be infected: As many people who got sick as cases soared to their peak will get infected on the downward slope, said Dr. Jonathan Li, an infectious disease physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston.

"It's a great sign that the slope is going down but case rates remain very high," he said.

Friday, the seven-day average of cases in the U.S. was 743,913 cases, down 7 percent from the week before, according to NBC News data. Deaths, however, rose slightly, from an average of 1,979 on Jan. 14 to 2,131 on Friday.

According to Katriona Shea, a professor of biology at Pennsylvania State University and a member of the coordination team for the Covid-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a group of institutions that pool multiple models to create pandemic projections, cases and hospitalizations are expected to peak before the end of January in most states.

Cases are already falling in parts of the Northeast, Walensky said. "We are starting to see steep declines in areas that were first peaking, so areas of the Northeast — New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut — are really starting to come down."

Shea said that cases in the rest of the country and deaths, which lag behind cases, are expected to trail shortly after.

It wouldn't be surprising if we saw a few more bumps in the road.

Justin Lessler, University of North Carolina Gillings School of Public Health.

The big dropoff in cases in large states like New York can make the nationwide average look lower, even though cases are still rising in many states, but she expects all states to hit their peaks soon after Northeastern states.

Even so, people should not see this as a time to ease up on precautions, she said.

"People think that if the peak is at the end of January, then we're done. But a lot of damage can be done on the other side of that peak," Shea said.

The omicron variant now accounts for nearly 100 percent of new Covid cases in the nation, CDC data show. Although early evidence suggests this strain of the virus is less likely to cause severe disease than its predecessors, many more people are being infected than ever before, so the number of people dying will still be significant, she said.

People also shouldn't expect a smooth decline.

"It wouldn't be surprising if we saw a few more bumps in the road, temporary bounce backs that don't get back at the level of the peaks we're seeing now, but are still brief periods of increase on this general trend of a decline," said Justin Lessler, a professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina Gillings School of Public Health in Chapel Hill.

These brief spikes will likely be driven by lags in reporting and behavior changes, such as traveling more over holiday weekends, he said.

According to Li, although much of the decline is driven by immunity and fewer hosts for the variant to infect, behavior changes also play a vital role. If these behavior changes such as wearing masks ease up, it could blunt the speed of the decline, he said.

The latest Covid-19 Scenario Modeling Hub predictions, published Thursday, projected that by April, cases could drop to the lows seen in June 2021, before the delta wave hit.

What the models cannot predict, however, is how the virus may evolve.

"All it takes is one new variant," Shea said. "There was no indication of omicron and there were other variants that did not take off. Omicron made a huge change and it's definitely possible it could happen again."


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Kavika
Professor Principal
1  Kavika     2 years ago

If they are in decline, the next new variant will pop up soon.

 
 
 
cjcold
Professor Quiet
1.1  cjcold  replied to  Kavika @1    2 years ago

Folk have always been complacent and not masking in my redneck small town.

I expect that small town America in red states will keep the variants going strong.

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
1.1.1  XXJefferson51  replied to  cjcold @1.1    2 years ago

Small town and rural America in blue states is no different than we are in red states.  

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
1.1.2  Krishna  replied to  XXJefferson51 @1.1.1    2 years ago
Small town and rural America in blue states is no different than we are in red states.

Angels and Ministers of grace defend Us!

(Could it be that Jefferson of the double size X's has become... {gasp}...a.. DEMOCRAT! jrSmiley_27_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Masters Guide
2  Right Down the Center    2 years ago

Of course it is on a decline.  It has to make room for the BA.2 sub-variant

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
3  Greg Jones    2 years ago

How much more severe is Omicron as compared to the seasonal flu? Would any new variants tend to be more or less severe? With all the new cases here in the US are we approaching  some level of natural or "herd" immunity?

gv012222dAPC20220122064504.jpg

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
3.1  XXJefferson51  replied to  Greg Jones @3    2 years ago

In my case it was exactly the same as a major flu.  My first symptoms were last Sunday during the 49ers Cowboys game.  I had low fever never more than 101.5, then chills, cough, congestion, sore throat.  I tested positive.  I had the flu shot, pneumonia vaccine, and covid vaccine.  The worst was Thursday as my doctor told me it would be.  I’m still recovering and gradually feeling better.  So far I’m the only one in my immediate family to have gotten this China virus.  Tomorrow if all goes well, I get tested early morning and if negative return to work.  

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
3.1.1  Krishna  replied to  XXJefferson51 @3.1    2 years ago
 So far I’m the only one in my immediate family to have gotten this China virus.

"China Virus"?

Isn't it ironic that since that term (as well as the term "The Kung Flu") became popular, hate crimes against Asian-Americans-- particularly Chinese-Americans-- have sky-rocketed?

(Coincidence? jrSmiley_26_smiley_image.gif )

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
3.1.2  Krishna  replied to  Krishna @3.1.1    2 years ago

Isn't it ironic that since that term (as well as the term "The Kung Flu") became popular, hate crimes against Asian-Americans-- particularly Chinese-Americans-- have sky-rocketed?

Hate crimes against Chinese-Americans sky-rocketing?

LET'S GO BRANDON!!!

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
3.1.3  XXJefferson51  replied to  Krishna @3.1.2    2 years ago

One must ask why so many African Americans committing hate crimes against Asian Americans living there are doing so.  They are not MAGA country you know.  

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
3.1.4  XXJefferson51  replied to  Krishna @3.1.1    2 years ago

All crime in big blue democrat cities where almost no Republicans live is skyrocketing. Why is that?  

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
3.1.5  CB  replied to  XXJefferson51 @3.1.3    2 years ago

It is a shame too. Arrest those who are guilty and throw all relevant laws against them, I say! Black people are not immune to making wrong value judgements or being 'members' of the criminal element in this country (and the world).

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
3.1.6  CB  replied to  XXJefferson51 @3.1.4    2 years ago

Things that make you go, "Hmmm"  - eh?  Population density up in blue states, may be?

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
3.1.7  Krishna  replied to  XXJefferson51 @3.1.3    2 years ago
One must ask why so many African Americans committing hate crimes against Asian Americans living there are doing so.  

Ah c'mon Double X-- what's up with this "African-Americans" schtick?

Why not just stop beatin' around the bush and say what you mean?

Why not just come out of the proverbial closet and say what you mean-- why not use the "N word"?

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
3.1.8  Krishna  replied to  XXJefferson51 @3.1.4    2 years ago
All crime in big blue democrat cities where almost no Republicans live is skyrocketing. Why is that?

WHy?

Probably for the very same reason that crime in the big red areas where no almost no Democrats live is also skyrocketing.

Back atcha...and  is that?

WHY?

(Is it really necessary to add the word...PERIOD?...Heck..if only for stylistic reasons...???)

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
3.2  Krishna  replied to  Greg Jones @3    2 years ago
How much more severe is Omicron as compared to the seasonal flu? Would any new variants tend to be more or less severe? With all the new cases here in the US are we approaching  some level of natural or "herd" immunity?

All good questions. But unfortunately at this point its all just speculation. No-one knows for sure.

Of course that doesn't stop those who are governed by some extremist political agenda are sure they know! And what are they so sure they know? Well that depends upon whatever political agenda they have...

(But then.. you probably already know that)

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
3.3  Krishna  replied to  Greg Jones @3    2 years ago

With all the new cases here in the US are we approaching  some level of natural or "herd" immunity?

Well, as a famous Yogi master (a highly regarded guru) once said:

Prediction is difficult...especially about the future!

-- " Gurudev " Yogi Berra

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Participates
4  Nowhere Man    2 years ago

Well, the talking heads are saying on various media from the radio to television that the Omicron wave is beginning to subside... It's been an announcement that has been expected for a week now...

But what is real interesting, is they are also saying that the pandemic is probably reached it maximum impact, from this point on it will probably be no more bothersome that the flu or a severe cold... (barring another variant) the infrastructure to deal with it is in place and the methods of treating it are in place... so there shouldn't be any need for further mandates or lockdowns...

I thought that was interesting...

 
 
 
cjcold
Professor Quiet
5  cjcold    2 years ago

It's far from over here. Many folk have never masked and likely have never vaccinated.

The perfect breeding ground for COVID voted for Trump and scoffed at Fauci. 

I had COVID early and have yet to get over it. Though fully vaccinated I'm a long hauler.

Been suffering from all of the signs and symptoms for over a year and a half now.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
5.1  Krishna  replied to  cjcold @5    2 years ago

It's far from over here. Folk have never masked and likely have never vaccinated.

Well it seems that a growing numbers of Republicans who were formerly an-Vaxxers are finally starting to get vaccinated...but many Republicans still refuse to get it:

A growing number of Republicans urge people to get vaccinated as COVID-19 cases climb

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
5.1.2  Krishna  replied to  Krishna @5.1    2 years ago

Well it seems that a growing numbers of Republicans who were formerly an-Vaxxers are finally starting to get vaccinated...but many Republicans still refuse to get it.

Roughly one in three Louisianians are fully vaccinated. This week the state's Health Department reported the highest number of hospitalizations since late February. Scott Rowe is one of them.

Personally I find it "interesting" what he said when asked if he had to do it all over again (would he have chosen to get the vaccine before being hospitalized if he had another chance?).But what I found to be especially "interesting" is his reason why he said what he did (the segment starts at about 1:50 into video).

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
5.1.3  Krishna  replied to  Kathleen @5.1.1    2 years ago

A lot of Democrats are also older folks! Places like NYC, Boston and San Francisco are heavily Democratic...but they have old people living there.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
5.1.4  Krishna  replied to  Kathleen @5.1.1    2 years ago
According to the census, it’s mostly young adults that are not vaccinated not older folks. A lot of republicans are older folks. How can you be sure about that Krishna? 

Good question.

Now that I've though aboutit a bit...more and moreII starting to think you can't trust the date we're getting. And will it might not be politically correct here, I not pointing the figure at either the Dems or the Republicans. I know-- the politically correct thing on social media is to immediately decide..who's to blame!

But IMO its no conspiracy-- its just that Covid has just created so much havoc in hospitals,,,and other institutions...that IMO its difficult if not impossible to get reliable date.

So IMO its not caused by some insidious conspiracy, but its actually hard to know exactly what's going on.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
5.1.5  Krishna  replied to  Kathleen @5.1.1    2 years ago
How can you be sure about that Krishna? 

I'm not not sure about any statistics when it comes to Covid. And I don't know ifthere's any overal large conspiracy to cover things up.

RatherI just think that the longer this drags on, the more chaos there is...the more uncertainly. 

Many hospital can no longer accept patients for routine elective surgery!  Need emergency surgery to extracta Cancerous Tumor? Sorry-- no beds available-- they're all filled with Covid cases...

That's pretty extreme...

Some of the doctors and  nurses who work there are amazing...almost saint -like. But some are starting to break down due to long shifts without breaks...and constantly facing patients who are certain to die because their Covid has  gone too far-- many anti-Vaxxer who are now being told its to late...imagine being a nurse have to tell someone that-- several times a day to different people?

Or people dying in intensive care wards who ask to see family-- but can't because there are no visitors (to prevent the spread)???

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
5.2  Krishna  replied to  cjcold @5    2 years ago
Been suffering from all of the signs and symptoms for over a year and a half now.

From everything I've read, there are a few things people could do that may help-- that may increasing resistance, building up immune system:

1. TCM ("Traditional Chinese Medicine): Some people have reported that  Accupuncture is helpful... I don't know if that's been proven. `  I believe that ancient Chinese traditions actually  recommends eating Mushrooms for Immunity! (I don't know if that has been Scientifically proven either). They believe that almost any are helpful in strengthening Immune system, , but some are better. Of course this may just be folklore-- I don't know if its been proven.it may not work for everyone and some  people may be allergic to some, etc-- so I'm not recommending them. Ancient Chinese folklore believes Lion's Mane is believed also to be helpful for mental clarity & preventing memory loss.. Cordyceps is believed by some to increase overall energy, perhaps to enhance oxygen utilization. Reishi is believed to slow aging and "calm the spirit". Again I don't know is these have been scientifically proven yet. (P.S: Better to cook them, raw not good in some cases)

2. One of the things that's apparently has  been proven is maintaining a normal body weight (being overweight has been proven to be a risk factor for Covid)-- and harms immunity in general.

3. Exercise (even moderate walking) apparently is helpful.

4. Eating junk food fast food has been proven to be very detrimental to health. And more and more evidence has been accumulating from reputable medical sources that sugar..in any form! (including Cane Sugar...and even"organic sugars").. is one of the major causes of increasing mortality rates in the U.S. (yes-- even before Covid). High Fructose Corn Syrup is especially deadly...a few localities are actually starting to outlaw it. (Some politicians in the "Nanny State" have our best interests at heart and don't want us to die or become very sick)

5. Some of the "super Foods" that enhance health:
Dark green leafy veggies-- cooked and raw (Spinach, etc)

Cruciferous veggies (Broccoli, Cauliflower, Kale, Collard, little cabbages (what you Americans call "Brussel Sprouts"),.

Nuts (not roasted and raw only ): especially Almonds, Walnuts, Pistachios

Seeds especially Black Sesame, Pumpkin, Chia, 

Berries, especially Blueberries. (should be only organic as they are heavily pesticided)   Strawberries                           

6. Olive oil. Avocados, Olives all good i

7. Wild Caught Pacific Salmon. (Mercury? Generally speaking ,the smaller the fish the less the Mercury-- but you can google specifics). Sockeye-- can't be farmed so they are all Wild Caught.. 

8. Whole grains (some people should eliminate Gluten,:Wheat, etc)

9. . Excessive Alcohol is not healthy. (I get my Resveratrol from organic Red Grapes)

Smoking is one of the worst killers-- anyone who still smokes at this point IMO either has a death wish ..or is extremely stupid!

Anti-inflammatories: most herbs and spices. (Although I don't trust those from India, possibly China).

I eat 100% Organic except on the extremely rare occasions I eat out. Also the less processed the better. 

Oh-- Organic Green Tea/Matcha is considered to be a ":Superfood>"

I am not recommending any of this-- a lot of it is based on what I've found seems to work for me....and may not work for, or even be slightly detrimental, to some people!

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
5.2.1  Krishna  replied to  Krishna @5.2    2 years ago
From everything I've read, there are a few things people could do that may help-- that may increasing resistance, building up immune system:

Oh-- one of the best types of bodywork I've done (in addition to getting Accupuncture) is the ancient Japanese art/science of Reiki. Regular visits to a practitioner can be expensive-- so you can learn to do it on yourself (its hand on healing-- channeling energy). One of the best things i've ever experienced in terms of healing.

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
5.2.2  XXJefferson51  replied to  Krishna @5.2    2 years ago

Try Quercetin.  It’s an over the counter supplement.  Combine it with vitamin C.  Add vitamin D with Zinc.  This is all widely available over the counter.  Quercetin is the tool to replace Hydrochloroquiene and ivermectin in fighting Covid 19.  It has a property of the two RX drugs in being able to get the zinc and vitamins inside the affected cells.  Zinc and D alone can’t get inside the cell.  

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
5.2.3  Krishna  replied to  XXJefferson51 @5.2.2    2 years ago
Quercetin is the tool to replace Hydrochloroquiene and ivermectin in fighting Covid 19.

Why nothing could possibly be as good for your health as Hydrochloroquiene and ivermectin which some of the nuttier anti-vaxxers advocate.

/sarc

BTW, I've been taking Quercetin supplements (low dose) for years. But it has nothing to do with my immune system. Rather, I am taking it because it an anti-inflammatory. (Suddenly some people discovered that, and the "Cytokine Storm" is one of the ways Covid attacks you (triggering yuge inflammation..).

But while they may lessen severity of Covid infections, it won't kill the virus.

Unlike some of the crazier stuff anti-vaxxers advocated, Quercetin is safe, and natural. 

And unless you have inflammation from severe Covid, its better to get it naturally. And most of the foods that have it aren't especially exotic. Red Onions, Kale, (Cranberries IIRC) Organic Tomatoes, Black Plums. Also a lot of leaves and other plant parts (which also means many common herbs and spices): Dill, Cilantro, Fennel. Raddichio and related plants. (Usually in those clamshell sald greens mixes.). Watercress.

A lot of those things I had already eaten before I found out about Quercetin!

BTW if you want a more exotic plant, I believe I've read that Lovage is high in Quercetin-- its an interesting plant.

(Basically changing to a healthier diet begins with eating lots more vegetables, and a variety. Organic is safer and also contains more nutrition). Less sugar, much more veggies. nuts and seeds, berries.

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
5.2.4  CB  replied to  XXJefferson51 @5.2.2    2 years ago
Add vitamin D with Zinc.

Under a doctor's supervision. "D" can be toxic if ingested too much. The body does not dispose of it as with some other supplements. A blood test is required to know if you need more "D" than you can get from natural sunlight or lifestyle means. Important! (I know what my "D" levels are because it is doctor supervised since 2020.)

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
5.2.5  XXJefferson51  replied to  CB @5.2.4    2 years ago

Most get enough with sunlight and milk but what’s in a high quality natural multivitamin supplement would be sufficient for this.  No need for exotic amounts of it or the other three items.  Even people who are vaccinated should use all 4 if they have a breakthrough case like I did and can’t get the new Merck or Pfizer therapeutic, like I couldn’t because I don’t live in a big blue city.  At least I won’t need Regeneron now.  

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
5.2.6  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Krishna @5.2.3    2 years ago

I wonder if he has started drinking his own urine yet.

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
5.2.7  CB  replied to  XXJefferson51 @5.2.5    2 years ago

Actually, as we age we process Vitamin D differently (especially during the winter months), especially Black Americans (despite our darker skin), come to find out. I got blood tested, discovered I was lower than the "standard range," and have been taking an off the shelve D supplement for two years now and am in the range now. (It takes a long time to "mess up" if you know your levels.

Important: What will get someone in trouble is taking Vitamin D (in quantities) they do not need, because they are in standard range already.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
5.2.8  Krishna  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @5.2.6    2 years ago
I wonder if he has started drinking his own urine yet.

BTW that's not new with Covid. Its actually a variation of a Homeopathic principle. I've known people who did it over 20years ago!

(Jus' sayin'-- its not my intention to discuss the pros and cons of Homeopathy).

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
5.2.9  Krishna  replied to  XXJefferson51 @5.2.5    2 years ago
Even people who are vaccinated should use all 4 if they have a breakthrough case like I did

How'd that work out for you-- had only a few mild symptoms?

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
Professor Principal
5.2.10  Trout Giggles  replied to  CB @5.2.7    2 years ago

Do African Americans tend towards lower Vitamin D levels? Mine are normal...but I had to take a calcium supplement last year even tho I consume a lot of dairy

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
5.2.11  CB  replied to  Trout Giggles @5.2.10    2 years ago

Oddly enough, yes. African-Americans, as we get older, tend to have lower Vitamin D levels. Mostly, we don't know it, because we have been told through life that dark skin draws (heavily) on the Sun's rays for its production. This is where science comes in as blood tests are telling the narrative that we are not 'filling' up Vitamin D as one would suppose-even when we purposely sunbathe.

I learned this from an article on Vitamin D's significance to the SARS 2 Covid virus mid-summer 2020. Got tested. Saw I was indeed 'below standard range' for "D" and have been taking a supplement since (it takes quite a while to 'over-top' the range). I ask for checks on it when I get blood tested to see how 'steady he goes.'

BTW, this is important too: Doctors don't offer Vitamin D level testing in standard practice - ASK FOR IT and it will be done. Furhtermore, doctors do not RETEST for Vitamin D unless you remind them to periodically recheck you (to make sure you are not overdoing the supplement).

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
Professor Principal
5.2.12  Trout Giggles  replied to  CB @5.2.11    2 years ago

Interesting information. Thanks!

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
5.2.13  CB  replied to  Trout Giggles @5.2.12    2 years ago

jrSmiley_124_smiley_image.gif Sure thing. Thank you for giving me a chance to 'put it out there'. (It might help somebody to read it.)

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
5.3  CB  replied to  cjcold @5    2 years ago

So sorry to hear you are suffering so. You are in the medical field ('first medical responder'), if memory serves me, right? I am wishing you so much "chicken soup for the soul" right now!

 
 
 
charger 383
Professor Silent
5.4  charger 383  replied to  cjcold @5    2 years ago

I hope you fully recover and feel good soon 

Chiefs had amazing win 

 
 
 
cjcold
Professor Quiet
7  cjcold    2 years ago

Seems we are experiencing another extinction event.

Fuck all polluters responsible

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
Professor Expert
7.1  seeder  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  cjcold @7    2 years ago

Well, that's a bit bleak.

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Participates
7.1.1  Nowhere Man  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @7.1    2 years ago
Well, that's a bit bleak.

I know we are overdue for one according to the scientists, but I have to agree, that is a bit bleak...

 
 
 
cjcold
Professor Quiet
7.1.2  cjcold  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @7.1    2 years ago

Do the research.

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
7.1.3  CB  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @7.1    2 years ago

Well, admittedly, these last two years forgive my language have 'sucked big' - sorry. It's just that with all the deaths, spectacular news shows on the subject of disease, illness, and dying, a few familial losses, maskings 'galore, long Covid sufferings, and now anti-vaxxers AT-LARGE . . this gnawing is finally getting through my personal veneer. How many more of these can the likes of us - weather?

Or, will it be climate change that bursts our evolution 'balloon' post-haste?

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Participates
7.1.4  Nowhere Man  replied to  CB @7.1.3    2 years ago

None of the above... IMHO

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
7.1.5  Krishna  replied to  cjcold @7.1.2    2 years ago

What should we research? The changes of Covid wiping out the humzn race?

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
7.1.6  XXJefferson51  replied to  Nowhere Man @7.1.1    2 years ago

AOC said it, what is it, 9 years left to us all now? 

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
7.1.7  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @7.1    2 years ago

Sometimes, the truth is bleak.

 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.1.8  mocowgirl  replied to  Krishna @7.1.5    2 years ago
What should we research?

This could be what cjcold is referencing.  And despite some people's lofty sense of our species' superiority to Earth's other life forms, we are not immune to going extinct for same reasons that other species have gone instinct.  However, in our species' case, we knowingly/unknowingly hastened the process.

Our planet will eventually become inhabitable regardless of what our species does.  The interior of the Earth is cooling.  The sun will eventually burn out.  An asteroid may wipe out our species and begin a new evolutionary cycle. 

We may have an inkling of how the Earth will end, but it probably won't be in our lifetime, so we ignore all of the things we are doing until it bites us in the butt.

Article is from 2020....

The sixth mass extinction is happening faster than expected. Scientists say it's our fault - CNN

(CNN) The sixth mass extinction is not a worry for the future. It's  happening now much faster  than previously expected, and it's  entirely our fault , according to a study published Monday.

Humans have already wiped out hundreds of species and pushed many more to the brink of extinction through wildlife trade, pollution, habitat loss and the use of toxic substances. But the findings published in the scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) show that the rate at which species are dying out has accelerated in recent decades.
Gerardo Ceballos González, a professor of ecology at the National Autonomous University of Mexico and one of the authors of the study, said approximately 173 species went extinct between 2001 and 2014.
"173 species is 25 times more extinct species than you would expect under the normal, background, extinction rate," he told CNN in an email. He and his team found that in the past 100 years, more than 400 vertebrate species went extinct. In the normal course of evolution, such extinctions would have taken up to 10,000 years, they said.
 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.1.9  mocowgirl  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.8    2 years ago
so we ignore all of the things we are doing until it bites us in the butt.

A short, but interesting article from 2019.

What's likely to cause human extinction – and how can we avoid it? (stanford.edu)

What's likely to cause human extinction – and how can we avoid it?

Stanford epidemiologist Stephen Luby sees three potential outcomes for humanity by 2100: extinction, the collapse of civilization with limited survival, or a thriving society. 

As part of the center’s Planetary Health lecture series, Luby gave a talk titled, “Can our collective efforts avert imminent human extinction?”

In the end, Luby comes down firmly on the side of yes, we can. But along the way and without intervention, the future looks pretty grim. By 2100 – a short 81 years in the future – he sees three potential outcomes: human extinction, the collapse of civilization with limited survival, or a thriving human society. The first two outcomes could be the result of population growth coupled with the increasing destruction of our planet.
 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
7.1.10  Krishna  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.8    2 years ago
This could be what cjcold is referencing.

Oh, OK.

I can see a strong possibility that life might be a lot more miserable in the future-- for those reasons.

In fact its possible we will cause life to become extinct.

BTW I believe that may be the reason Elon Musk wants to colonize Mars? (Although I really don't know much about that..).

In one sense the future here does look pretty grim, given the fact of how we are abusing the planet.

And we should do everything we can to stop that.

OTOH for some strange reason I'm quite an optimist-- and hopin that there's a chance that in the not to distant future more and more people will wake up to the grim realities and cause a change.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
7.1.11  Krishna  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.9    2 years ago

Well, I've posted this quote several times before:

Prediction is difficult-- especially about the future.

-Yogi Berra

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Participates
7.1.12  Nowhere Man  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.9    2 years ago

I see one problem sis that leans more towards extinction even involving the universities...

(from the article, highlighting mine)

For Luby, universities can play a critical role in protecting us. Governments tend to be short-sighted; non-government organizations tend to have limited resources; and corporations are not incentivized to protect humanity. But universities, with multiple areas of expertise and a commitment to interdisciplinary research, may be best-suited to leading to a solution, he said. Universities also have loads of young people with fresh ideas and professors, like Luby, who are committed problem-solving.

Just where does the scientific community get most of it's funding?, since WWII? the US Government and Major Corporations... And we all know science doesn't go anywhere very fast without money...

We are either going to kill ourselves, or nature will do it for us, we are too stupid, or better put too arrogant, to have any other possibility come true... I mean who else takes a rather benign animal disease and PAYS to have it mutated into something that kills mankind?

Mankind...

Mankind would live forever if it wasn't for the brilliance of mankind...

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
7.1.13  Krishna  replied to  CB @7.1.3    2 years ago
How many more of these can the likes of us - weather?

And I'm wondering something else-- how much more of the devistating effects of climate change can we whether?

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
7.1.14  CB  replied to  Krishna @7.1.13    2 years ago

A lot, i hope. "Climate Change" -Coming to a location near you! 

Earth axes flip event soon?

 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.1.15  mocowgirl  replied to  Krishna @7.1.10    2 years ago
OTOH for some strange reason I'm quite an optimist-- and hopin that there's a chance that in the not to distant future more and more people will wake up to the grim realities and cause a change.

I believe hope is what keeps us most of us alive.

There are over 7 billion people on the planet striving for a "better" life.  

Realistically, do you really believe that most people are willing to give up their lifestyles that destroy the environment in order that future generations will have a better chance of survival?  And what about the people working to have the lifestyles of the affluent?  

Maybe, someday there will be leaders that can meaningfully address the issues of overpopulation and over consumption instead of promoting it.  So far, that day is not even on the horizon as headlines continue to prioritize division over unity and promotes war to destroy lives instead of peace to build lives.  

I also hope that "more people will wake up to the grim realities and cause a change".  Realistically, I am not optimistic that it will happen or is even possible.

 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.1.16  mocowgirl  replied to  Nowhere Man @7.1.12    2 years ago
We are either going to kill ourselves, or nature will do it for us, we are too stupid, or better put too arrogant, to have any other possibility come true... I mean who else takes a rather benign animal disease and PAYS to have it mutated into something that kills mankind?

I totally agree.

Because I have raised various livestock for many decades, I have seen what a lethal disease can do in a very short time.  When covid-19 was first announced, I was concerned that this could be similar to shipping fever in calves.  Luckily, this is not the case.

I don't believe that we will ever know if this was created in the lab.  Zoonotic diseases are common.  I do believe that with enough DNA research that it is possible that scientists can accidentally create a disease that will create huge death losses while trying to prevent another disease.  It is also possible that it will be deliberate, but I agree that it is more probable to be done because of stupidity or arrogance. 

Of course, doomsday scenarios are not limited to the scientific community.  Isn't most destruction done by people who are stupid and/or arrogant?  Disease can be a consequence of the destruction and poverty caused by war. Also, the exposure to the chemicals/radiation released by all of the bombing. 

How will life on Earth end?  I googled for some scenarios.  Fortunately, humans might have millions of years to figure this out.

I included just a paragraph from what is viewed as the most likely end of life on Earth and then Earth itself.  

The Four Ways The Earth Will Actually End (forbes.com)

1.) The extinction of humanity . This is not just prophesy; this is an inevitability. Although there are over seven billion of us (and growing) today, humans have only been around in our current form for under a million years, with all of the great apes having existed for only a few million years. Evolution may be slow to occur in our species on the timescale of a single human lifetime, but over millions of years, it's inevitable. As the Earth changes, the pressures on different species to survive will change as well, all while random genetic mutations occur. Some mutations are beneficial to surviving the present pressures, and those are the genes that are most likely to get passed on.

2.) The boiling of Earth's oceans . It's such a fortunate cosmic coincidence that our planet is the size and mass it is, with the atmosphere it possesses, at the distance it is from a star exactly as massive as our own. Only the right combination of all these parameters can give us a life-supporting planet with copious amounts of liquid water directly at the surface. For billions of years, Earth has been an ocean-covered world, with simple and complex life originating in the seas and only coming onto land relatively recently. Yet thanks to the future evolution of our Sun, our oceans won't be around forever. As helium builds up in the Sun's core, the region in which nuclear fusion occurs expands, with dire consequences for us.

3.) Reduction to a barren rock . You thought having our oceans boil was bad? How about the prospect of having every atom of atmosphere ejected from our world. Of everything that ever lived on the surface reduced to charred ash; of the record of everything that living creatures left behind turned into dust. With enough heat and energy, that's exactly what would happen to any world, with Mercury, the closest planet to the Sun, being a prime example. In another five-to-seven billion years, this is exactly what will happen to Earth, as the Sun runs out of hydrogen fuel in its core. 

4.) Swallowed or ejected?  Even though it's been cleared of life, boiled, then charred and evaporated, and finally bombarded with quadrillions of years' worth of cosmic rays, our corpse of a planet will still continue to exist. It will remain intact, orbiting around our central, stellar corpse, until one of the following things happen:
 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Participates
7.1.17  Nowhere Man  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.16    2 years ago

Well the datum I've read says that our sun is a small one... and small stars don't have the mass to explode in a supernovae... so getting toasted according to some is a non starter, but as the sun burns down and turns into a white dwarf star, the earth will experience an ice age that will make all the others feel like a walk down a Hawaiian beach in the summer... Or the rocky bullet from space will do us all in, just ask the dinos about that one....

Ain't much we can do about either of those and as far as prediction, one is about as more likely as the other... hey we have supervolcanoes, the earth my just up and decide it's time to start over...

This is what get me about all the angst about the AGW theories that seem to be all the rage today... There is really nothing we can do about it, we can't change it, if the earth IS getting warmer who going to turn the thermostat down, who even knows where it is? and if they do find it whos to say they didn't turn it down too much? if they can even figure out how?

This is the arrogance of the human being... Thinking they can do anything, they are the masters of all nature... Gain of function experiments, whose to say they don't create a disease that can't be stopped?

Hell we can't even keep from killing each other over petty assed bullshite... 

Man is a stupid creature.. can rationalize anything, except a way to survive in a hostile environment...

Well there is one constant, this lump of rock floating in space... we are all but temporary passengers on a spaceship to nowhere...

Then there is also the science fiction ideal that we are the disease, we infest the earth, the earth is sick with humanity... we have a biological function that protects us from basic common disease, why doesn't the earth have one as well?

WE are the infection...The earth is the patient? Maybe we get bad enough that the earth will fight us off...  Heck we haven't developed to the point where we are contagious yet, but we are getting there...Mars is probably the first victim we will infect.. but once that is accomplished how many other worlds we will infect with our disease?

Of course we are masters of the universe, at least the universe we all know, anything outside what we know doesn't exist in our rational way of thought... But we will adapt and overcome, according to our rational soothsayers... Cause man is eternal, he has a soul and the great creator made us in his image... 

But I submit, could it be that the great creator has created us in a petrie dish just to see what gain of function capacity we have?

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
7.1.18  Krishna  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.15    2 years ago
Realistically, do you really believe that most people are willing to give up their lifestyles that destroy the environment in order that future generations will have a better chance of survival?  And what about the people working to have the lifestyles of the affluent?   Maybe, someday there will be leaders that can meaningfully address the issues of overpopulation and over consumption instead of promoting it.  So far, that day is not even on the horizon as headlines continue to prioritize division over unity and promotes war to destroy lives instead of peace to build lives.  

I don't know.

A quote from Albert Einstein:

I know of two things that are infinite,The Universe and human stupidity. And I'm not entirely sure of the former.

 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.1.19  mocowgirl  replied to  Nowhere Man @7.1.17    2 years ago
This is the arrogance of the human being... Thinking they can do anything, they are the masters of all nature...

I have had to give this reply some thought.  I am not a fan of arrogant people who think they can do anything.  But I am a fan of the problem solvers who have largely benefited the lives of our species.  The fact, that some of the solutions have turned out be problems, is nothing new in history.  

Without the ability to adapt, to innovate and to mold our environment, our species might have gone extinct tens of thousands of years ago.

Compared to other animals on Earth, humans do seem to have many unique abilities, but that might be because we really don't speak dolphin.

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Participates
7.1.20  Nowhere Man  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.19    2 years ago
Compared to other animals on Earth, humans do seem to have many unique abilities, but that might be because we really don't speak dolphin.

And a simple truth...

IF we were the masters of the universe and created in god's image, then the ability to speak dolphin wouldn't be an issue would it?

WE are a different specie of course, in the mind of man the most capable and adaptable that has reared it's ugly face on the planet....

But that is simply the mind of man....

Are we killing off the rest of the living creatures on the planet?

More than 500 new species, including colorful beetles and a 'hell heron,' discovered in 2021

Or, is it the fact that we just simply don't have a clue? (most likely)

I think the arrogance of man is that he thinks he is the best biological construct ever conceived... At some point that fallacy is going to bite man in the ass...

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
7.2  Krishna  replied to  cjcold @7    2 years ago

Do you really think covid will make the human race extinct?

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
7.2.1  XXJefferson51  replied to  Krishna @7.2    2 years ago

China’s next one might do that…

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
7.2.2  CB  replied to  XXJefferson51 @7.2.1    2 years ago

Jefferson, it is a new year. In Christian terms, a time of Refreshing. You need to let some of that racist, separatist bull patty go. Do it not because its the Jesus thing to do. If it takes much prayer, humble yourself and pray for all you are worth.

I am going to say something that may surprise you and even be awkward at first, but let it grow on you, please.

I extend my virtual hand to you in fellowship today. Let's example something of Jesus' peace (which he left with us) for NT to see and 'prosper' through our doing of it.

CHAMPION PEACE. "JEFFERSON, TEAR DOWN THIS WALL!"

 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.2.3  mocowgirl  replied to  Krishna @7.2    2 years ago
Do you really think covid will make the human race extinct?

What is the death and survival rates of covid?

Does the data show that covid has the potential to make the human race extinct? (Example: Are children and people of reproductive age dying in large numbers?)

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
7.2.4  Greg Jones  replied to  mocowgirl @7.2.3    2 years ago

 Are children and people of reproductive age dying in large numbers?)

NO!

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
7.2.5  Krishna  replied to  XXJefferson51 @7.2.1    2 years ago
China’s next one might do that…

Well, apparently you can carelessly post predictions-- based  not upon a desire to learn the true facts, but rather upon some need to push some partisan agenda.

(Not that there's anything wrong with that.. at least on Social Media).

But I've been investing in the stock market for 40 years. And sometimes I had based trades on my political views. (and religious biases , and any other  strong beliefs)

Eventually over time i learned a lot about the Market-- and one lesson I learned was to put my political  biases aside when trading. And to search for the actual "true facts" (Not "Alternative Facts"). And my trading result increased considerably.

512

So on sites like NT, go ahead-- try to push some political agenda. Its perfectly appropriate (and after all those arguments make money for more page views which = more profit for site owners).

Its a "win-win" jrSmiley_2_smiley_image.png

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
7.2.6  Krishna  replied to  CB @7.2.2    2 years ago
You need to let some of that racist, separatist bull patty go

Correct!

There's an olde sayin' that comes to mind:

What goes around comes around.

I think that same concept may be from The New Testiment, although phrased a bit differently there:

If a person continually exudes prejudice and racism-- it will eventually come around and bite him in the Kishkes!

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
7.2.7  Krishna  replied to  mocowgirl @7.2.3    2 years ago
Does the data show that covid has the potential to make the human race extinct? (Example: Are children and people of reproductive age dying in large numbers?)

Of course one could still make the argument that even in people of any age were not dying in large numbers, that wouldn't conc;usively prove that we won't become extinct. 

Obvious, considering how we've been treating the planet...for many years and getting worse...eventually we may have to pay the piper!

To coin a phrase..

(And rumour has it he still ain't excepting bitcoin!)

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
7.2.8  Krishna  replied to  XXJefferson51 @7.2.1    2 years ago
China’s next one might do that…

Well if that's not a good excuse for launching attacks on elderly Chinese-Americans in our country's Chinatowns-- I don't know what is!

(The new rallying cry: "Kill those Commie Bastids"..who gave us the CHINA VIRUS!)

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
8  Greg Jones    2 years ago

 Are children and people of reproductive age dying in large numbers?)

NO!

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
8.1  Krishna  replied to  Greg Jones @8    2 years ago
Are children and people of reproductive age dying in large numbers?) NO!

Correct!

And as the Great Sean Hannity so brilliantly put it:

This is the Democrats Latest Hoax!

That's all a hoax...spread by the Libs!

And occasionally by The Tards!

(See what I did there?)

Fact (of the Alternative Kind);

A total myth. 

A Hoax

And its not killing anyone... as  wise 'ole Jeanine Pirro (PBUH) so succinctly put it:

Its a Virus

Like the Flu

All the talk about The Corona Virus Being Much More deadly doesn't reflect reality!!! (0:49 on)

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
8.2  Krishna  replied to  Greg Jones @8    2 years ago
Are children and people of reproductive age dying in large numbers?) NO!

Good argument-- can't disagree much with the impeccable logic you presented!

But I wonder: wouldn't you argument  have been much more persuasive if you had added one simple word ("period")?

Instead of a simple no (as powerful as that is).

...and admittedly. the all caps is a nice touch.

But better  if you had presented your argument thusly it would be:

NO!

PERIOD!

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
9  Kavika     2 years ago

Per John Hopkins yesterday there were over a million new cases and close to 2,000 deaths from COVID. 

Doesn't look like its over.

 
 

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