Phase 3: The Seige
Satellite imagery shows a large Russian military convoy heading towards the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. The convoy is approximately 40 miles long, stretching from Antonov airport in the south to Prybirsk. Additional images show increased military activity in southern Belarus, with ground attack helicopters spotted less than 20 miles from the country's border with Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin has no real off ramp. He is trying to restore the nation he once knew and he has to do it will 100 Million less people, 30% less territory and exactly what was lost to get it back. He is an opportunist, who springs like a panther when he feels the opportunity is right. The events leading to 2021 led him to believe the time was right.
The Ukraine is a country of 45 Million people and has enormous potential. It has the largest acreage of fertile land in Europe. It is a repository of vast amounts of natural gas along with deposits of precious minerals necessary for the next generation of high tech. On the flip side, it has the lowest per capita income in Europe, primarily because it is an utterly corrupt society.
How corrupt is it?
Exhibit A would be the stories we already know: Burisma, Hunter Biden and the checkered career of the now retired Colonel Vindman. Vindman was the man, who didn't disclose his true relationship to Adam Schiff. Vindman may have either been the actual whistleblower or relayed information to a whistleblower who was not allowed to be on the phone call and therefore a violation of the law. All of it contributed to the 1st faux impeachment but also did serious damage to the Ukraine and yet Ukraine offered him the Ministry of Defense on 3 separate occasions. Then Vindman went on a tirade about Trump not helping Ukraine, when it was Trump who gave Ukraine offensive weapons that Obama never did. The $2 Billion that the Ukraine had for it's defense came from the Trump administration. That's a small sample of how corrupt things have been. All of that is no longer important because Putin is in the Ukraine and he is now risking everything on making a regime change.
Despite the valiant fight the Ukrainians have put up and it has been impressive, things are really going to get worse now. Moscow poured large reinforcement convoys across the border as airstrikes on Kyiv have picked up. Russia, facing military setbacks and under mounting economic sanctions appears to be escalating its assault on Ukraine. The city of Kyiv is being surrounded and most likely will be besieged. The UN says that half a million people have left the country already. The peace talks are over (to continue later) and the next few days will be critical.
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We will know more in the morning.
Tanks and artillery worked for them during WWII. Looks like they're going for that again, now. I expect we'll soon read about them just shelling the crap out of everything if they can. They can't do it from a 40 mile long column, though. I think a key factor is going to be the condition of the soil. If it's too soft, Russians are going to have a tough time deploying, maybe. But, man, oh man! Imagine if the Russians had a 40 mile long column fighting against NATO. I seriously hate to even contemplate it.
It's snowing an average of an inch a day but the ground is already softening for spring.
Some of the vehicles forced off of the highways are either stuck in the mud
suffered transmission or hydraulic failures
or simply ran out of gas..
The "spare" Ukranian MiG pilots arrived in Poland today to start ferrying 70 donated
MiGs and SU 27s back to the Ukraine, planes that were sitting idle since NATO supplied former Soviet countries with
NATO equipment.
I am sure they are wishing those planes were A-10s but they can still have a huge possibility for a devastating turkey shoot.
Look for huge convoy kills by Thursday or Friday.
We can only hope.
I know what you mean but I'd seriously hate it. It may be that most of those Russian troops are thoroughly miserable and angry about all of this. I have to wonder what the discipline among the troops is like. I wonder how much dissent there's been, if any. I wonder how pissed off they are with their own government?
It must be a terrible feeling going in against what used to be your own people and having them stand there defenseless shouting go home.
More or less what I've been thinking. Don't know if it's right. There's danger in projection. But based on vids I've seen so far, the Russian who ran over that civilian car with his APC seems to be the exception. Again, hard to know for sure. One of the things I wonder about is, are there Russian soldiers who are refusing their orders and what is happening to them, if so.
Damn! Being human is such a mess!
"Highway of Death II" hopefully coming soon!
A 40 mile convoy against NATO? Remember the Highway of Death in Kuwait? That would be small in comparison.
Yes. I spent 20 years in the Army and I don't know which emotion would dominate. Joy or horror.
I did 26. After so many deployments I've really become numb to it.
Hear you, brother. But the more I come to know Christ, the less numb I become. That doesn't mean I've become a pacifist but that the horror of it all registers more.
The first casualty of war is the loss of innocence
Isn't that the truth? When I was in Iraq, I constantly wondered if I was there for what I thought I was there for or was I simply a small, insignificant part in a machine for the rich and powerful. Not something I could really figure out. What mattered to me most were my fellow soldiers. In the end, I was there for them, not national policy.
In Nam, I was only there for my fellow troopers, not mom, apple pie, or the government.
I thank you for your service to your fellow troopers. It doesn't feel right to simply say, thank you for your service. I say this because what happened to you and your fellows, in my opinion, was the result of indifferent attitudes of what I consider to be the equivalent of video game players in charge of policy. I don't mean we shouldn't have been involved in Nam because I don't know. What I do know, or strongly believe, is that you weren't allowed to fight but, rather, were just used as pawns by political video game players rather than prosecute the war by soldiers.
Regardless of whether what I just said is right or wrong, I truly appreciate your service and what you went through and I'm sorry for what you came home to.
Thank you and thank you for your service and welcome home.
There was no way that we were going to win that war and it was known very early on. A lot of what is said is we were not allowed to fight needs some clarification. We could not cross into Laos which was a sanctuary for the NVN, but unknown to Americans we had a secret war going on in Laos. We also dropped more bombs on Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia than on Europe and Asia in WWII. We used Agent Orange, napalm, and willie peter. So, yes, there were some things that held us back and there are other things we used that were devastating.
If you want to read one of the best books ever written about Vietnam read, ''A Bright and Shining Lie'' John Paul Van and America in Vietnam by Neil Sheehan.
20 years here in the Navy for me as a FMF Hospital Corpsman from 1973 to 1993. Tail end of Vietnam to the 1st Gul War. Between sea and shore duty rotations/deployments and tours with the Marines, I've lost track of all the places I've been to. Still have the PTSD and nightmares that went with it.
Amen to that!
First week on a LPH off of Danang took care of that for me. Flying as medical aircrew in the back of USMC UH-1 Hueys trying to keep the shattered Marines alive long enough to reach proper medical facilities, while the pilot jinked the aircraft trying to minimize and avoid the ground fire coming up though the floor of the bird.
Enemy at the gates
I like it!
Do I dare?
Zelensky says “Victory will be ours Ukraine!” Like Churchill he speaks to rally other leaders to his cause, is direct about the sacrifice and enormous threat they face, but always ends with optimism and unity to prevail.
i read today that the kremlin , has a group of paid mercenaries out of Africa , called the Wagner group already in country ( maybe even before) looking for the Ukraine government officials it was alluded to that they were there to "eliminate " the vestiges of the government officials , what better way to set up a puppet government if the old one is dead and cant be ruling in exile . as with anything this is not confirmed .
Side note , when i checked my radar app this afternoon i found a saudi military C-130 flying parallel to the Ukraine border .
i thought that .....odd....
The same group that was in Syria.
I believe they had some chechens doing the same thing, but that unit was decimated.
WE will also find out about the emergency NATO accession requests tomorrow as well...
The next few days are going to be critical. The Russians may surround Kiev and start a siege, but I'm sure the president and major governmental figures are probably in Leiv by now or heading there...
So, what's happening in eastern Ukraine? Wasn't that the point of contention when all of this began? Russia did evacuate people from Donetsk and Luhansk. And the land connection between Crimea and Russia is in eastern Ukraine.
Urban fighting is a tough go. Russians avoiding urban combat isn't too surprising. Especially if they aren't the objective. But reports are that the Russians are fighting harder in Kharkiv.
Russia widens war; Biden speaks tonight
http:// hill.cm/RMEV2Rf
Are they totally avoiding it?
Or are they waiting until they have even stronger forces surrounded cities-- and then they plan to go in full scale?
(IDK_
From what has been reported, yes, Russian forces are avoiding urban combat. The heavy fighting will occur in cities that are Russian objectives. And that fighting will involve long range bombardment by artillery, missiles, and aircraft. So far, the Russians are using the same battle tactics that the US has employed in the Middle East. That's how the US did things in Raqqa, Mosul, and Ramadi, too.
JUST IN: Ukraine's Zelensky calls for war crimes investigation over Russian attack
http:// hill.cm/afeJwgt
SAINT JAVELIN OF UKRAINE
China won't sanction Russia over Ukraine
http:// hill.cm/Y4auPYe
Neither will India.
IIRC, a large part of India's air force consists of Russian supplied planes.
And they are vital to India's defense (vs attacks from Pakistan-- and the threat of atacks from China.
My guess is that they don't want to piss off the country supplying them with crucial weapons.
That is true what is also true is that the two countries have had a relationship going back to the 70's. Russia supported India in the 1971 war with Pakistan.
Oh well, they call themselves the largest democracy in the world, so there is that.
Worried about attacks from China, I wonder who Russia will support in that war, China or India....My bet is China.
Also another thing to consider, given the worlds reaction to the Attack on the Ukraine, China's position that Russia should stop and go negotiate a resolution, what does that do for the ones that think China is going to forcefully attempt to take Taiwan?
The chinese aren't stupid, they see the worldwide reaction against Russia.. Do they really want to deal with that pointed their way?
I don't think so...
JUST IN: Russia demands list of weapons that will never be deployed in Ukraine
http:// hill.cm/ZtLu
Then we should immediately approve and deploy those weapons to Ukraine, fuck Putin and his lapdog Lavrov.
Yep!
Mar 02, 6:18 am
Third world war would be nuclear and destructive, Lavrov warns
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned Wednesday that if a third world war were to take place, it would involve nuclear weapons and be destructive, according to Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti.
Golly gee-- I wonder when he finally figured that out!
I thought it was kinda humorous myself.... Like he was asleep or something when his fearless, (or feckless) leader was directly threatening it four days ago...
Just finished reading a article on Fox news. It seems the Ukranian government has just told it's citizens that if they are in posession of captured Russian equipment such as tanks and armored personnel carriers, they don't have to declare them on their taxes. It's all theirs! Just imagine looking out your front door and finding a abandoned and fully armed intact T-90 tank sitting in your front yard...