A new Cold War without rules: U.S. braces for a long-term confrontation with Russia
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The United States and its allies are girding for a long-term confrontation with Russia, a contest of wills reminiscent of the Cold War, triggered by Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, current and former U.S. and European officials say.
With Putin showing no sign he is ready to pull back Russian troops shelling Ukrainian cities, and with the United States and Europe vowing to arm Ukrainian forces and wage unlimited economic warfare on Russia, there is no end in sight to the emerging duel between the West and Russia.
"I think we are going to have to face it as something that we're going to have to deal with for quite some time and be quite resolute and creative about confronting it," said Eliot Cohen, a professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, who served in George W. Bush's administration.
As in the Cold War, countries are being forced to choose sides in a clash that President Joe Biden and European leaders describe as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, between the rules-based order set up after World War II and the "law of the jungle" where might makes right.
"Any nation that countenances Russia's naked aggression against Ukraine will be stained by association," Biden said in his State of the Union address last week.
His speech carried echoes of past presidents during the Cold War, who also vowed to lead the "free world" against the threat from Moscow. And Biden's top diplomat, Antony Blinken, also employed similar rhetoric that recalled the Cold War years.
"With this brutal invasion, we, our European allies and partners and people everywhere are being reminded of just how much is at stake. Now, we see the tide of democracy rising to the moment," Secretary of State Blinken said on Friday in Brussels.
Putin warns neighboring countries 'not to exacerbate the situation'
Mary Elise Sarotte, a historian of the U.S.-Soviet conflict who recently published the book "Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of the Post-Cold War Stalemate," said she is stunned by how quickly the ground has shifted in a matter of days, and the many parallels with the Cold War.
"It's kind of shocking how fast this has happened. This new Cold War has ramped up really quickly," Sarotte, who is a professor of history at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, said. "This is a major breaking point in history."
After Russia launched its attack on Ukraine, European leaders rallied in a united front, marking a historic shift. Germany and other European governments recast their foreign policies to begin sending weapons to Ukraine and enact unprecedented sanctions on Russia that would have been unthinkable two weeks ago.
Unlike the Cold War, Moscow cannot rely on a large bloc of countries in its camp, or a communist ideology that had resonance for many around the world who saw it as an attractive alternative to capitalism or colonialism.
The wild card is how China will respond as the crisis drags on. So far, Beijing seems ready to support Russia and to buy its fossil fuels. But economic sanctions could force China to choose between trading with the developed world, or trading with an isolated Russian economy, some analysts say.
Putin's Russia is arguably in a weaker position than the former Soviet Union, and unlike its economically closed predecessor, vulnerable to international sanctions, experts said.
A campaign of intense economic pressure against Russia is a distinguishing feature of this new showdown with Russia, an option that could not have worked against the old Soviet state that was mostly closed off from global markets.
"There wasn't anything we could really do during the Cold War that was going to really punish the Russian economy. Well, now there is," Cohen said.
Even so, Russia is "unquestionably dangerous, and it's unquestionably deeply malevolent," he added.
The Cold War emerged more gradually than the current crisis, and over time the two sides developed de facto codes of conduct and, eventually, elaborate arms control treaties, according to Sarotte.
But the current standoff represents uncertain territory without mutually accepted "rules of the game," and a volatile Russian leader ready to flout international norms.
"There were times during the Cold War that were more stable than we see today," said Thomas Wright, director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution think tank.
"This feels like a very dangerous moment, especially given the personality of Putin. That might be the biggest difference" between the current crisis and the U.S.-Soviet contest, Wright said. "So much of this seems to be about Putin personally."
Putin almost certainly will retaliate for the sweeping financial sanctions imposed against Russia, Wright said.
"I don't think he is just going to let our response unfold on our terms," he said. "He's likely to try to escalate and put pressure on us."
Not since the Soviet Union dissolved has the world had to contemplate the unthinkable, a potential clash between the world's foremost nuclear superpowers.
"This is clearly an unprecedented situation," said Tara Drozdenko, director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "I can't think of another event other than the fall of the Soviet Union in my lifetime that has been so consequential when it comes to nuclear weapons."
Despite the current tensions, Drozdenko said it's crucial the two superpowers renew arms control talks to lower the risk. The New START treaty, the sole remaining arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia, expires in 2026.
The presence of U.S. and Russian forces in close proximity around Ukraine raises the risk that an accident or miscalculation could spark an armed conflict between NATO and Russia. To try to avoid an unintended clash, the Pentagon announced Thursday it had set up a hotline between U.S. and Russian military top brass to "deconflict" forces in the area.
"You could imagine all kinds of ways in which this could get out of hand and suddenly become a NATO-Russia confrontation," said Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense in Barack Obama's administration. "And in that instance, if that escalates, then the nuclear shadow becomes much more real."
After the U.S. and the E.U. unveiled punishing financial sanctions on Russia following the start of the Russian invasion, Putin announced he had put his nuclear forces on alert.
Russian military doctrine openly embraces the idea of "escalating to de-escalate," promoting the idea of invoking the nuclear arsenal to force an adversary to back off.
"I think this is the first time we're seeing Putin actually put it into practice," said Flournoy, now co-founder and managing partner of WestExec Advisors, a consulting firm.
Instead of responding in kind, the Biden administration made it clear the United States was not placing the nuclear deterrent forces on higher alert, and even canceled a scheduled test launch of a Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile to make it crystal clear that Washington was not interested in escalating nuclear tensions.
In what could be a long struggle ahead, Sarotte said, the U.S. would do well to draw on the lessons of the Cold War, including the need to support resistance fighters against troops sent from Moscow.
Historians say the U.S. won the Cold War by containing the Soviets, building a more prosperous economic model and by cultivating a vast network of alliances.
To prevail against Putin's Russia also will require maintaining solidarity among allies, even when the economic blowback from Moscow inflicts some pain at home, former officials said.
"The main thing is, you just have to steel yourself for what's going to be a long, difficult time," Cohen said. "That's not something that comes completely naturally to us. We would rather things that were short, decisive, get it over with and move on to the next thing. Well, that's not going to be our world, and we just have to accept that."
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"To prevail against Putin's Russia also will require maintaining solidarity among allies, even when the economic blowback from Moscow inflicts some pain at home, former officials said."
As long as it can be used as a midterm election tool, get ready for a minimum of 6 seeds per day blaming the 'Let's Go Guy'.
Why not? We already get more than 6 seeds a day blaming Trump for anything and everything that has occurred since he left office. Chances are we will get countless more blaming Trump for Russia invading Ukraine; and not doing enough to prevent it.
trumpturd told little putin that invading Ukraine was a savvy and genius move and y'all are blaming President Biden???????????????????????????????????????
Yes, and Vlad Putin is very grateful to all the far rightwingers in the gop blaming Biden for Putin and the Russians invading Ukraine...
You want to answer for her?
Nobody on the right supports Putin. That is an outrageous smear.
And you say?
I said those blaming Biden for Putin's invasion!
Ya, I see that!
The invasion is happening on Biden's incompetent watch. Therefore, he gets the blame.
Only 6?
Why so few?
WTF?
Remember this?
"I went in yesterday, and there was a television screen, and I said, 'This is genius.' Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that's wonderful," Trump said. "I said, 'How smart is that?' And he's going to go in and be a peacekeeper."
Trump has conveniently left out that his first impeachment was, in part, due to the fact he withheld roughly $400 million in military aid to Ukraine while pressuring it to launch an investigation into Biden and his son Hunter over bogus allegations of corruption. Ukraine has heavily relied on US assistance while fighting a war against Kremlin-backed rebels, the war Putin claims to now be entering on behalf of Russian speakers.
The Civil War happened on Lincoln's watch-- therefore he gets the blame!
(Why do wars start under Republican presidents? Curious minds want to know!)
In the specific case of the Civil War, it started because a bunch of racist Democrats didn't want to give up their slaves. Republicans didn't start the war.
Anyone who really thinks the Ukrainians are better off now than they were under Trump, isn't a serious person.
It's not President Biden's fault that little putin and his supporter trumpturd and his supporters is a murdering thug scum who is invading/killing Ukranians for absolutely no reason whatsoever.
As soon as Biden was elected the die was cast
A murdering thug supported by murdering thugs and assorted scumbags.
Name Putin's supporters. We all want to hear.
trumpturd is his biggest.
Wendy Rogers?
Your comment has what to do with anything serious?
Anyone who really thinks the Ukrainians are better off now than they were under Trump, isn't a serious person.
"He is a very talented statesman. He has lots of gifts," Pompeo said of Putin during a Fox News interview in January. "He was a KGB agent, for goodness sakes. He knows how to use power. We should respect that."
Pompeo also expressed "enormous respect" for Putin, an authoritarian who has ruled over Russia for 20 years. The Russian leader, who has taken steps to ensure he can be president for life , is widely viewed as an enemy to democracy. Putin's opponents often end up dead or imprisoned. He bullies and threatens smaller countries that neighbor Russia — invading Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 (and has invaded again in 2022). And, not to mention, Russia has interfered in US elections under Putin's watch, as he's sought to divide and weaken the country.
But Trump, Pompeo, and other conservatives like them apparently don't find these trends especially problematic.
Trump. Pompeo. To name some of the better known ones.
(See comments # 1. 1. 7. and 1. 1. 8, above.
Are you one of those fine folks who believe that Ukrainians are better off right now than when Trump was President--for any reason?
Seriously?
You think having a war in your country is preferable to peace?
Name Putin's supporters. We all want to hear.
I never thought you'd ask!
None?
Well, in addition to Trump himself, of course, there are people like Nick Fuentes of the America First Political Action Conference: At the AFPAC event, Fuentes got the crowd to chant “Putin! Putin!”
AFPAC’s leader Nick Fuentes ’s repeated use of the N-word, his belief that America should be a “White Christian” nation, his Holocaust denialism, his fascination with Hitler, and his support for Vladimir Putin. Fuentes, a young provocateur who now runs a far-right podcast, attended both the neo-Nazi “unite the right” rally in Charlottesville in 2017 and the January 6 insurrection in D.C. in 2021.
At the AFPAC event, Fuentes got the crowd to chant “Putin! Putin!” and compared him to another of his idols, Adolf Hitler. To this, the fascists in the audience whooped back, “Let’s go! Let’s go!”
Tcch, tchh, tchh... fo' shame!
What a totally bizarre comment!
Do you really think people here are that gullible?
The Ukraine is not part of the United States-- and never was!
The Ukraine has had have various rulers over time-- but obviously it was never ruled by Trump (or any other American for that matter!)
Ukraine better off under Trump?
What's next-- a claim that the Ukraine was better off when ruled by Thomas Jefferson?
How about Warren Gamliel Harding? (Whoever he was...???) When Harding ruled the Ukraine?
Or maybe the Ukrainians were better off when under the rule of Lady Gaga? (/sarcasm)
Your total and utter misinterpretation is highly amusing.
OBVIOUSLY he meant that WHILE Trump was President, they were better off than they are now.
Unless YOU think war is preferable and better?
This is something that has been in the making for many years. Anyone looking to blame Biden/Trump are shortsighted and have no memory. There have been too many poor decisions in the last 30 years and too many broken promises. This is not an easy situation to solve.
It will be alright just as long as the 80's don't call for their foreign policies back, eh?
The 80's call for..?
Sorry, I'm not familiar with them
(Is that an old music album...or a group?)
Inane.
Anoon...well we are totally shattered in the Great Southern Land...
Putin had just branded us as an "unfriendly country"....how will we ever cope with that??
I think I will have to go and seek counseling...it is more than a koala can bare..
Don't mock Putin-- many of the MAGA-groupies still have a lot of respect for him..even worship him!
Unfortunately, Putin can not back off from this invasion. It would mean the end of his regime and total humiliation.
Unfortunately, the Ukrainians have proved themselves worthy of our support. When have we had an ally in the past willing to fight to defend itself as they have. The South Vietnamese nor the Afghans merited our support, yet here because of nuclear weapons we can't give it. There was a chance once of Ukraine being accepted into NATO, but we partnered with them and told them to clean up their corruption problem first. Now we must stand by and watch the inevitable take place.
As for the premise of this article, there will forever be a cold war as long as a Communist or any rogue nation has nuclear weapons. That after all is what normalized them and forces us all to accept them.
Unfortunately, Putin can not back off from this invasion. It would mean the end of his regime and total humiliation.
What goes up, must come down. How will this one ever come down without total humiliation on the part of Putin? I hear military strategists saying that Putin doesn’t want nuclear confrontation … I’m not so sure. Putin oscillates between a dead-eyed and feral-eyed malignant narcissist, exhibiting the actions of a soulless nihilist. He’s in the twilight stage of his existence - does he care if everyone on earth dies along with him while he maniacally grins and laughs? I personally don’t think so. He may not be the most evil human alive, but he is the most evil human alive who possesses the power to end it all with the push of a button.
One of three. The idea of nuclear deterrence is to have the other guy believe you might use it. Biden saw a "killer" when he looked in Putin's eyes. You can be sure that Putin saw a barely functioning coward when he looked in Biden's eyes.
You can be sure that Putin saw a barely functioning coward when he looked in Biden's eyes.
Jesus Christ, do you ever stop with this shit? It appears that now you are setting up a justification for Putin using nuclear force because of the look he saw in Joe Biden’s eyes. [Deleted]
Yeah, and what about that look in Putin's eyes?
Not to worry, I hear tell that Biden is getting revved up to give Putin the old Corn Pop treatment.
War's almost over now!
Vlad Putin appreciates your confidence in him.
Don't look now butt Americans support Biden...
Now then, that statement is simply idiotic.
I don't support Putin, only a fool could possibly believe that crap!
I posted something about a new poll yesterday, take a gander at it if you want to see how independents weren't swayed by Biden's SOTU speech.
Or keep dreaming of Democratic victories on election day 2022.
Dissing your President during a crisis is idiotic!
Same attitude you had in 2020 and the pandemic??............../S
Strange/funny how Vlad looks like a freshly shaven Durham.
Which war are you referring to?
Russia-Ukraine.
Once old Joe gives someone the old Corn Pop treatment, is is OVER for them!
P.S.
It was a JOKE. Perhaps you have heard of them?
Bernie misses the old Soviet Union swinger parties. Nothing like sitting at a table naked drinking State vodka with your comrades.
Ah yes, the sister city trip, you might be surprised as to how many US towns/cities have sisters in nefarious nations.
Back to the photo, did Bernie get a medal from Putin like Rex Tillerson did? And just who is sitting next to Putin celebrating Russia's real fake news site?
Putin obviously sucks at calculus ...
That fuck up waddled out of the White House on 1/20/21
Putin can not back off from this invasion.
And especially since he knows that many on the American far-Right are great supporters of his.
Inane.
LET'S GO BRANDON!!!
/sarcasm
Russia has been historically a second level "power" that succeeds in war by throwing waves of humanity at the military opponent and by sheer willpower to survive as a people.
Because of the flawed politics Russia has embraced over the decades and centuries it has never been able to reach the top echelon of developed countries. An inferiority complex is always there.
It just is what it is, and would be a lesser concern if not for the fact that their nuclear weapons could effectively end human civilization.
They won the war in Europe for us that way. 7-1 they lost vs the Wehrmacht.
It just is what it is, and would be a lesser concern if not for the fact that their nuclear weapons could effectively end human civilization.
Thus we are forced to accept it.
True!
The hidden secrets of WWII-- the Allies lost!
What?
You should attend a world history class and pay attention this time.
No wonder Trump loves Putin so much!
The Russian upper and even middle classes have gotten used to the benefits of being part of the much larger modern world. Used to foreign travel and foreign money and foreign business and foreign goods and even foreign jobs. Seeing all of that evaporate practically overnight is a shock to their systems. Russia and Russians became pariahs unwelcome pretty much everywhere outside Russia. I don't think this can be stressed enough. Much of the support Putin enjoyed (past tense) is waning at home due to this...
Undoubtedly some has waned. And more should..but may not wane significantly (?)
Why? because of the incredible control Putin has over the media-- all they get is the official Russian "party line".
So they don't hear a lot of thef acts.
And even when they do, they get the official interpretation, which is about as accurate as you would get if you only listened to Fox news every day. (Different POVs on many issues-- but both are similarif outting forth only a very biased set of "facts"!)
All Putin had to do is replace the Russian flag with the Soviet Flag and announce Communism was coming back and the American left would fawn over him.
A miscalculation for sure.
We know who has always supported the murdering thug little putin and so do you MK - [deleted]
Maybe if they got a giant birthday card. /S
A communist Hallmark card? checking......
Prove it!