Does Putin have a diplomatic way out of Russia's war in Ukraine?
Category: News & Politics
Via: perrie-halpern • 2 years ago • 30 commentsBy: Phil McCausland (NBC News)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Ukraine is still standing.
That may be a surprise to Russia as its invasion grinds toward a third destructive week. Not only has it seemingly underestimated its neighbor's resolve, but now its ability to wage — let alone win — a prolonged conflict has come into question.
Between the stiffer-than-expected Ukrainian resistance, Russia's early military woes and the expansive penalties that have roiled Moscow's economy, could President Vladimir Putin look for an early offramp to end the war?
Ukrainian officials and Russia experts did not express much optimism.
"Maybe there's more happening there than meets the eye, but the Kremlin has gone all in on this invasion — a major war of a kind Russia has not fought since 1945," said Michael Kimmage, who joined the State Department in 2014 to focus on Ukraine-Russia issues and is now chair of the history department at the Catholic University of America.
"Putin has bet his presidency on this venture, so either he will get major concessions from the Ukrainians or just keep on fighting," Kimmage said.
Nearly 100% of Russian forces now inside Ukraine, says senior U.S. defense official
Experts said Putin entered the conflict with some very clear political goals: push back against NATO, topple the Ukrainian government and install a new regime more sympathetic to the Kremlin.
To do that, Russia hoped to move in with a swift military victory before the West could react.Now that it has become a protracted fight, Moscow appears to be retooling its efforts: The quick-moving ground offensive is turning into a devastating aerial assault.
"It is now an air war," said Oleksandr Danylyuk, the former secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council who is now helping organize the territorial defense on the front lines in Kyiv.
"If they wanted to take over Ukraine, they know now they cannot manage it," he added over the phone. "When I look at their behavior, they don't care about this at all. They cannot occupy this country, so now they will try to destroy it."
Still, as the war has quickly shifted, so have some of Moscow's public demands.
On Monday, Russia provided Ukraine with a pared-back version of the goals it had outlined earlier — though experts doubt there's much room to budge.
Rather than requiring Ukraine's full demilitarization and pushing NATO to remove all deployments east of where the alliance stood in 1997, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Reuters the war could end "in a moment" if Kyiv agreed to four conditions.
Ukraine would have to end all military action, write into its constitution that it would not join NATO or the European Union, officially recognize annexed Crimea as Russian territory and accept the independence of two breakaway eastern regions.
"These goals Mr. Putin has presented are the ones that are maybe the lowest common denominator of what they would agree to," Mathieu Boulegue, a specialist in Eurasian security and defense at the London think tank Chatham House, said.
"All of this has been there for a long time, but this is the first time we see them on paper," Boulegue said. "The question is where do we go from here? How can they turn what they're doing now into a military victory that would ensure them and guarantee them the ability to carry forth with their political strategic ambitions?"
Russian forces are not occupying much territory in Ukraine, with the focus instead apparently aimed at encircling or leveling cities. Kherson, Mariupol, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv have seen intense shelling, with the destruction only growing as the war continues. Thus far it seems to have only served to embolden Ukrainian resistance, rather than convince it to give in.
'This could go on for some time'
While Russia's demands are high, so is Ukraine's resolve to oppose them and any deal short of Russia leaving the country fully independent and free to make its own choices.
"We make sacrifices every day now," Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, a member of Ukraine's parliament, said over the phone when asked whether his country would accept any of Russia's demands.
"Thousands of our people are wounded. Hundreds of our people are killed," he said. "We don't have the ability to stand back and be neutral."
"Ukraine is now the frontier of democracy, of Western values," he added.
Ukraine's Zelenskyy sends defiant message from his office in Kyiv
NBC News has not verified the number of people killed.
Ukraine accepting Russian terms could further embolden Putin's regime and cause future blowback for democracies and sovereign nations across the world, experts said, with neighboring countries already fearing they might be the next target of Russian aggression.
The West itself, Boulegue said, should "make damn sure that they [Ukraine] don't sacrifice on anything."
A State Department spokesperson said the United States would not push Ukraine to make concessions to end the conflict and that "we have consistently said that sovereign nations have the right to choose their own alliances and make their own decisions about their security."
"The challenge is this," the spokesperson said, "Putin continues to press this aggression, and that is why we are concerned this could go on for some time."
The length of time Russia can afford, between its military and its economic resources, is unclear. But it is a certainty that the country is taking on a huge toll to commit to the conflict.
Each day the number of young Russian men who will never return home grows, with the U.S. putting the total between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian soldiers killed so far — possibly more than the number of Americans killed in the 20-year war in Afghanistan.
As the cost mounts for the Kremlin, can it maintain an expensive fight against Ukrainian resistance for the long term?
"For Putin, I think it's very difficult to withdraw with nothing — from a regime survival perspective — otherwise he would be admitting defeat," said Dmitry Gorenburg, a senior research scientist who studies Russian politics and its armed forces at the military think tank CNA. "My suspicion and my fear is that what we'll see is the use of more indiscriminate violence to make the Ukrainians decide that the losses aren't worth it."
It could also prove difficult for Ukraine and Russia to hammer out an agreement because there is little to no trust between the two sides, particularly if Putin is involved, Ukrainian officials said.
The most recent round of negotiations did not make much progress, and efforts to evacuate civilians from besieged cities have been repeatedly marred by unceasing Russian attacks.
Danylyuk helped women and children evacuate through occupied territory north of Kyiv on Monday and said they saw heavy shelling constantly.
"Putin's intentions are absolutely clear," Danylyuk said. "If we give him a finger, he will bite the whole hand. There can only be one negotiation: They withdraw from Ukraine and pay us reparations. That's it."
All of these elements have combined to create a conflict from which neither side looks set to retreat, though both may feel they have their backs to the wall without an exit.
"At this stage, diplomacy is doomed to fail," Boulegue said.
"I don't see a way out right now," Boulegue said. "This is going to be a war of attrition, a very long conflict that will leave Ukraine and European security scarred for decades."
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The proverbial dog that catches the car, now can't let go, and has no idea what to do...
And the bigger they are, harder they fall ..
🇺🇦🇺🇦
True story.
I had a chocolate Labrador that loved to chase cars, sometimes caught them, then got dragged a few feet and
started hollering, let go and rolled, never got hurt.
Neighbor calls me over one day and says is that stupid dog of yours still chasing cars?
Yep, I said.
He says watch this, your dog comes over once a day, darndest thing I ever have seen.
The dog mixes with the horses and watches until a horse starts moving and he attacks,
the horses gather and start to run the perimeter of the paddock until most of the horses are running
in a circle and the dog never stops.
After ten minutes, several of the largest horses line up on the outside of the watering hole
and the dog ends up chasing the last 3 year old horse through the watering hole.
The older horses kick out with their front feet until somebody nails the dog
and leaves it whining, sitting in the watering hole, until he slinks away.
Farmer says to me, dumbest dog I have ever encountered.
I said "what do you want me to do, have him put down?"
Hell no, says the farmer, the horses have never been so enjoyable and interactive.
Send that asshole over every day.
Tru story
putin has left himself few options for a positive outcome, but still can effectively deal with any of his domestic dissent, so far. he's racing the clock now. I'm sure that there's much that the american public is unaware of that has, is, or will take place by the hands of nato and/or the UN.
I have memories over 6 decades old of the family vehicle having to make a few laps around the block before our dog would stop chasing it and we could leave. the companion memory is periodically burning the trash in the backyard incinerator that came with each house in the new subdivision.
Hilarious!
I tend to see this taking a long time to resolve as the same sort of loss as Putin pulling out right now would be. Russian families are going to get a lot more angry at feeding their sons and daughters into a meat grinder for no discernable purpose other than Putin's ambitions.
I do agree that Putin must gain something and quickly; but that makes him even more dangerous as he has nothing to lose. It is either all or nothing for him. Either he gets concessions from Ukraine or his regime falls- and chances are the next ruler of Russia is even more hard line.
I read that Georgia sent some of their forces to help the Ukrainians fight. Georgia by their deal with Russia is supposed to be a neutral country. Once Russia finishes with Ukraine- and several Russian upper military heads roll; Georgia might be back on the Russian list for a refresher course.
That is going to take awhile. I have been saying for some time that Russia really is a paper tiger. They are scary on paper, but aside from the nukes, they really aren't that impressive militarily.
I don't see the Ukranian government falling, or the Russians able to establish an effective occupation with the current level of force they are using, and frankly I don't think they are able to muster too much more.
I hope you are correct.
I am. Look at the trouble we had with Iraq. Ukraine is bigger, with more people, more united against an invader, and has the backing of the richest nations and strongest military Bloc in the world. If we couldn't handle a country like Iraq (with a much better military all around that the Russian), which had none of those things going for it, how are the Russians going to handle a similar situation with a smaller more poorly equipped and supplied force?
And one thing to realize is when a country like Russia says they have 15,000 tanks, that sounds scary. But how many of those are actually operational? How many can be crewed, fueled, supplied with munitions, and maintained in a combat setting? You can have 15,000 tanks, but if you can only operate 400 of them at any one time then you have 14,600 expensive paper weights. I really don't think the Russians can muster and maintain much more than what they have, especially not with their economy in free fall and polls showing barely half of the Russian people support Putin on this.
Once Putin assembled his forces he placed himself into a position where his ego would mandate some concession. He worsened the situation by invading and now clearly will continue until he finds some face-saving reward or is taken out by his own people.
He has brought pain to the people of Russia and that pain will linger. Hard to imagine what would cause the Russian people to justify this pain and truly support Putin's actions.
My concern is that Putin has few alternatives to come out on top here and that his desperation increases the risk to the safety of the planet.
Putin is currently irrational IMO and that means this will be resolved through force (one way or the other).
I believe Putin has put himself in a position to be charged with war crimes, the sooner that happens the better.
Yeah, well in the meantime the challenge is to resolve this aggression and allow Ukraine (and the rest of the planet) to get back to normal life. How that will be done is not clear, but it seems it will only come from force (more killing).
That is a very slippery slope, you have no idea of how crazy Putin is, it takes just one nuke and we may be in end times.
Sanctions fall under the same category. One either does nothing for fear of an irrational devastating act from Putin or one acts to mitigate the threat.
I do not see this ending without force unless Putin is allowed to win. I do not want force, but I see no alternative other than eventual capitulation by Ukraine.
I suspect Putin is ignoring the advice of his generals in trying to carry this out. Hitler did the same thing and we know that all turned out
Pretty sure the general staff is made up of people who will only tell him what he wants to hear. I get the feeling dissenting voices were removed some time ago.
"Ukraine would have to end all military action, write into its constitution that it would not join NATO or the European Union, officially recognize annexed Crimea as Russian territory and accept the independence of two breakaway eastern regions."
These were the conditions Putin put forward before the military operations in Ukraine began. And, so far, the Russian military operations in Ukraine have been directed toward achieving those pre-conditions. Nothing has changed. Russia did not invade Ukraine to annex Ukraine or establish a puppet government. Capturing Kyiv and removing the Zelensky government was never a stated objective for Russia.
Putin is going to force diplomatic negotiations on the pre-conditions he put forward before beginning military operations. The United States, Europe, and NATO refused to engage in diplomacy. That's why Russia invaded Ukraine.
The heaviest fighting has been east of the Dnieper River. That's where the Russian objectives are located. It's unclear how much the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics have been participating in military operations in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainians really are fighting on Russia's side. We just don't know how many. It seems rather obvious that Putin will threaten Kyiv to force diplomatic negotiations.
There isn't any indication that Putin wants to remain in Ukraine. Putin wants Russian control of Crimea to be permanent and wants to bolster Russian control of the Black Sea. Putin does not want NATO to threaten Crimea and the Black Sea. And Putin wants Ukraine partitioned to establish a buffer between Russia and Europe. These are Putin's stated pre-conditions that the US, Europe, and NATO refused to negotiate.
Biden refused to give diplomacy and democracy a chance. Biden wanted a confrontation. And Ukraine has been Biden's proxy for that confrontation. And Putin is going to continue destroying Ukraine until Biden comes to the negotiating table. The United States is NATO and Putin doesn't want the United States meddling in Europe to confront Russia. The Cold War is over. But Biden won't let the Cold War end.
I was going to do a point by point rebuttal of your 'essay'
and realized that there is just so many times one can call BS in a small space/
Then of course the last paragraph turns out to be in " a league of it's own".
Obviously because a rebuttal wouldn't fit events happening in Ukraine. Let's ask a few questions to see how the answers fit the rebuttal that never was.
Would Putin want to destroy cities and infrastructure in Ukraine if Russia was going to annex Ukraine? Or if Russia was going to install a puppet government? It would seem that annexation would be better served by focusing military attacks on military targets, avoid damaging cities and infrastructure, and prevent refugees from leaving the country. Annexing a wasteland wouldn't be an attractive option. An objective of annexing Ukraine would require closing and controlling the western border of Ukraine to prevent military assistance coming into Ukraine and prevent people from fleeing Ukraine. Putin would need to isolate Ukraine. Fighting in eastern Ukraine before controlling the western border wouldn't isolate Ukraine.
Would Putin issue pre-conditions if Putin was unwilling to negotiate? Making demands before invading would be a waste of time. Making a show of massing forces on the borders and conducting exercises would be a waste of time and resources. Positioning Russian troops in the east and north would be ineffective for closing and controlling the western border of Ukraine. The fight would be along the western border and not in eastern Ukraine. Where would Ukrainians flee if the fight was on the western border? Belarus? Russia?
Putin doesn't care what you think.
Shingles doesn't care either.
The people of Georgia on the other hand are feeling the DeJa'Vu.
Nothing Putin says is very truthful.
He seeks regime change and obedience. Period.
Putin’s Invasion Playbook All Too Familiar to Georgia | CEPA
So what, they are betting the Urkanian government that opposes all of those preconditions to just do a complete 180 and make Ukraine a client state of Russia? That plan sounds even dumber than the initial idea of an invasion.
Just undeniably implied. You never invade a country with the intention of letting the current government that is resisting you remain in place.
Putin made demands he knew neither the US, NATO, or the Ukranian government would accept, and used that as a bullshit pretext for war. There was never a serious attempt at diplomacy by Putin, and frankly there was nothing to negotiate by the Western/Ukranian governments.
Some, sure, but they seem to be a very small minority.
He will try to topple the current government and put in place one subservient to Moscow. That is very obvious. This won't work though, and he is fucked every which way.
Nope, but he has no other alternative. Any puppet government he establishes will be overthrown in short order if the Russian army leaves, and with every indication so far being that the Ukranians do not plan on giving into Russian demands anytime soon, Putin is in for a protracted conflict. One that will extremely costly for Russia and has virtually no chance of succeeding.
Because there was no negotiation to be had dude. When you make al ist of demands that you know are unacceptable to the other side, and then get mad when they don't give in, YOU are the asshole.
Just like how France and Britain didn't give diplomacy and democracy a chance with Hitler's Germany right? That statement is about as divorced from reality as it gets.
[removed] idiot dictator bit off waaaaay the fuck more than he can chew.
Putin did not make those demands on the Ukrainian government. The demands were directed toward the United States and Biden. The Zelensky government is unimportant for Putin's expectations. Putin invaded Ukraine because Biden refused to negotiate.
Unless the objective is to limit the expansion of NATO (and limit US meddling in Europe to threaten Russia). What is happening in Ukraine really isn't about Ukraine. Ukraine is only a proxy for the United States to indirectly confront Russia and threaten Russian control of Crimea and the Black Sea. Russian control of the Black Sea is a critical component of MAD deterrence.
Putin's demands were directed toward Biden and NATO to begin negotiations. Putin's demands included what Putin wanted and what Putin could concede. Putin's conditions really were (are) a framework for compromise.
Putin holds the better cards. Biden has framed the Russian military operations as a war and and invasion. Biden can politically portray a Russian withdrawal as a defeat for Russia because Ukraine wasn't annexed. Putin has already secured Donetsk and Luhansk (one of Putin's conditions) and can continue the destruction until there aren't any targets left. That's how Putin wins unless Biden negotiates. The US and Europe will be left with rebuilding Ukraine so it would be pyric political victory.
Hitler intended to occupy captured territory. Putin doesn't have that luxury. Putin planning to maintain a military presence in Ukraine would turn the situation into another Afghanistan. The Russian destruction of Ukraine is going to intensify because Putin has no intention of staying in Ukraine. The destruction of Kyiv will be the final curtain before the Russians begin pulling back. The only thing that will stop what is happening will be Biden negotiating with Putin. IMO Putin would not accept a surrender from Zelensky at this point.
Ah, so like Putin you don't even acknowledge Ukranian sovereignty or independence. No wonder why (aside from the Russian brutality the Ukrainians have endured in the past) the majority of the country doesn't want to be under your boy's rule.
A flat out stated demand of Russia. But nations can apply for NATO membership at will, and be accepted or rejected by NATO members, Russia does not get to determine who gets in and who doesn't, they can fuck off.
Agreed.
No. The Black Sea is important to Russia, the US doesn't care about it. We never had a strategic interest in it and still don't, it is a useless lake as far as we are concerned. Pass that on to your bosses. Ukraine is not a proxy, it is an independent nation trying to work out out a democracy until it suffered an unprovoked invasion by the Russian Federation. Big shock that other neighboring democracies will aide them.
Maybe to the Russians.
They were a nonstarter by any remotely reasonable standard. Nerm, I have a deal for you. I WONT rape your children if you give me every penny you earned since 1997. Sound good? There is Putin's deal.
Your tactical view of the situation... is awful at best. Putin's hand is laid bare and he had nothing. This was a bluff. He is facing a much stiffer than expected resistance, with forces that were not prepared for it, with an army not meant for it, and with absolutely no backup plan. 2 weeks in and this is a disaster for Russia.
It is. By definition.
Sure, and?
So Putin wins by killing a bunch of people, destroying cities, and retreating in defeat while making everyone in Eastern Europe (the place he wants to control) more afraid than ever... BUT he makes the US and EU spend money to rebuild Ukraine, bring Ukraine more firmly into the EU and NATO than ever, and bringing the "threat" literally to Russia's border? Given the success of the Marshall Plan, I think the US is happy to accept those terms.
So Putin and the Russian army will kill as many people as they can before withdrawing just because? No wonder everyone in Eastern Europe hates the Russians.
The answer to the question is NO. For Putin to back down now would mean the end of his regime.
The long siege will continue.
Evidently the Russians hadn't planned for anything other than rapid and total success.
From where I sit, Putin doesn't have any options here other than to continue.
Meanwhile the world watches Chinese knock off military tires fail from sidewall failure in
cold and muddy conditions forcing the Russians to preferring to stay on the highways.
Many of the abandoned vehicles have flat tires or the tires came off the rims.
The Ukrainians know it. The Russians know it. The Russians are surrendering
faster than the Ukranians can figure out where to keep them.
The T72, T82 and T90 are also proving pretty vulnerable, embarrassingly so.
WAIT??!! You mean logistics play a part in war??!!! What the fuck...
You mean to tell me, me, a combat vet, that on paper you can have all the nicest shit in the world but if it doesn't get to where it needs to be, or you can't fuel it, or arm it, or repair it, it is fucking useless???!!
And you mean to tell me the mediocre Russian army may not be up to the task?
Shocked. Shocked I say.
too funny
How cheap Chinese tires might explain Russia's 'stalled' 40-mile-long military convoy in Ukraine - Geopolitics - Oil Price Community
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