Bad neighborhoods: 1% of counties responsible for 42% of America’s murders
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Homicide rates have spiked, but most of America has remained untouched.
Only a tiny fraction of U.S. counties account for nearly all of the country’s homicides, according to research released Tuesday that showed a striking concentration where killings take place.
The worst 31 counties — generally urban jurisdictions — have about a fifth of the country’s population but accounted for 42% of the country’s homicides in 2020, said John R. Lott Jr. , president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, which conducted the study.
The worst 5% of counties accounted for 73% of homicides. That ticked up slightly from 69% in 2014 and 70% in 2016.
Meanwhile, 52% of counties recorded no homicides in 2020, and another 16% recorded only a single killing.
“Murders are a problem in a very small percentage of the counties in the United States,” Mr. Lott told The Washington Times.
Even in those higher-homicide counties, the crime is still concentrated, he said.
Mr. Lott crunched the data for Los Angeles County and found that 10% of the county’s ZIP codes accounted for 41% of the homicides. Another 10% accounted for 26% more.
“Murder isn’t a nationwide problem. It’s a problem in a small set of urban areas, and even in those counties murders are concentrated in small areas inside them, and any solution must reduce those murders,” he wrote in his report.
Mr. Lott relied on FBI data for his study, using the bureau’s Supplementary Homicide Report. For states that don’t report data to the FBI or where the data is believed to be a dramatic undercount, he relied on public uniform crime reports.
Cook County in Illinois — home to Chicago — led the country with 775 reported homicides in 2020. It was followed by Los Angeles County at 691, Houston home Harris County in Texas at 537, Philadelphia at 495 and New York’s five boroughs at 465.
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America doesn't really have a murder problem, a few neighborhoods have a horrendous one.
Seems like the smart thing to do would be to address the culture in those areas that permits life to be so casually destroyed.
All in the name of "Social Justice!"
total nonsense.
Urban areas have had more crime dating back to ancient Rome.
US murder rates have been higher at times in the past than they are now, and all that was before "social justice."
And liberal DA's and prosecutors in certain urban areas cut way too many deals with murderers and career criminals.
No that was when the population was less thus the occurrences per 100,000 they always use yielded a seemingly higher rate.
I'm amazed by the "murders were higher at some point in the past " argument. Funny how when the topic is contemparary racism, progressives don't immediately dismiss it by saying "racism was worse 60 years, ago so who cares?"
no
Hows about some numbers?
looking at the graph, the number of murders in nyc was as low in 2020 as it has been for most of the past 60 years. In the 70's , 80's and 90's there were two or three times as many murders in nyc than there are now.
why all the bitching now?
probably BLM, and increased scrutiny on the police, and the right white believes it is politically useful
why do you think the murder rate was lower in previous decades? Generally speaking, there is no basis for saying that.
So now they weren't higher they were lower?
I cant help you.
I asked YOU why YOU thought the murder rate was lower in previous decades. Do you have an answer?
That right there
is where you started. And then you changed it up to "lower in previous decades". WTF John? Help a fella out here.
It is rather funny that apparently boiling down crime to counties makes sense to some but they do not factor in the 'per capita' numbers. It's easy to say a county like Orleans Parish, Louisiana, with 396,000 residents that had only 166 murders seems safer when compared to the 775 murders in Cook county. But when you realize that Cook county has almost 5.2 million residents the narrative is changed. The 'safe' county had 1 murder per 2,380 residents whereas the dangerous violent urban Chicago neighborhood of Cook county had 1 murder per 6,674 residents. So which county is actually safer? Sure, a poorly educated right wing conservative may proclaim "The 775 murders is more than 166! Obviously its more dangerous in Cook county!", but are we really going to keep listening to dumb fucks?
I understood what he was talking about. Numbers were how can I say mostly level until between the late sixties and early nineties. Now they are down to previous numbers. Even from about 2011 to 2019 were lower than 2020.
This whole thing reads like they are cherry picking numbers for some reason.
Trying to blame certain people I am sure.
I was asking YOU a question. I know the answer. You dont seem to.
Fewer guns and the inclination to use them to settle arguments (we have fists for that shit), less feelings of entitlement to other people's property, more respect for human life, now-too much me and what I want now whether I need it or not, then-more fear of law enforcement and incarceration and of course there is always the "I'm oppressed" feeling fueled by the virtue signaling crowd............
I'll try to come up with more if you want. Now, why do YOU think it is?
And if you are inclined to pull your never ending fucking race card, don't bother answering. It is a societal problem. OVERALL societal problem
Surprise Surprise Surprise! About eighty percent of America lives on only about twenty percent of America's land. And so, really quite unsurprisingly, about eighty percent of murders happen in those parts of America. The righties are purposely avoiding the truth. Making theirs is a dishonest hypothesis.
You are confused. Just looking at NYC, though I am sure the results would be similar for most big cities, the murder rates were HIGHER 30 or 40 or 50 years ago than they are now.
Which makes your points , well, backwards.
Which goes back to my original point. Was the population the same 30, 40, 50 years ago? Shit no. Therefore 500 murders back then compared to 500 murders now is only a higher rate per 100,000 due to the size of the population. I am NOT completely wrong. NOW, please answer your own question. Why do you think it is?
Don't forget advances in medicine. People now routinely survive what would have been fatal wounds decades ago.
Try again. 75% of murders happen in counties where less than half of Americans live.
Didn't the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994, sponsored by Joe Biden and signed by Bill Clinton lower the crime rate?
New York City had 2 or 3 times more murders , for a number of decades, than they have now. Did they have 2 or 3 times the population back then?
With all due respect, you dont know what you are talking about. Why not just stop?
And 75% of the population lives in those cities. See how that works?
And now we have more and that inclination has escalated.
What was that I said? Well how about a whole family going to prison FOR LIFE because they shot and killed a security guard at a Dollar General Store after they were asked to leave because he insisted that their daughter put on a fucking mask in the middle of a pandemic.
I read a couple of articles that seem to agree that three of the worst cities are New Orleans, Jackson and Birmingham.
I get the trifecta around me. In the middle of three of the worst...Haha
I have never had a problem in them myself. Maybe that says something about me....
More like three times less. They had less population driving the rate UP. 500 divided by 3,000,000 divided by 100,000 is .015 compared to 500 divided by 8,000,000 divided by 100,000 is .005. And I'M the one who doesn't know what he is talking about?
Have you noticed the crime rates in Chicago?
Probably means that your white.
Between unsolved homicides and urban police departments not reporting their crime statistics to the FBI the percentage of homicides the FBI can definitively attribute to black perpetrators is greatly deflated.
More than half (51%) of felony cases in Manhattan have been downgraded to misdemeanors this year. The DA has also decided to not prosecute 3148 arrests YTD, which represents a 26% increase from full year 2021.
Are you suggesting that our homicide rate is evenly spread on a per capita basis?
You dont know what you are talking about.
Not my problem you don't like math John
what in the world does the number 500 have to do with anything?
[Deleted]
your entire argument is nonsense.
Again, 75% of murders happen in counties where less than half of Americans live.
And within those counties, murders are concentrated within even smaller areas.
Which city are you talking about?
It's a random number to prove a point as compared to population to show that you don't know what the fuck you are talking about. Smaller population with the same amount of crime equals higher rate. Larger population with the same number of crimes equals lesser rate. Are you okay?
It's theoretical......................just to make a point. Any city. 30-40-50 years ago compared to now.
Crime and poverty are like peas and carrots. They naturally go together. In 2023 the "Ghetto" is a rainbow of disadvantaged.
So you agree with the seed?
While poverty is no doubt a key factor, I don’t think it’s the only factor.
One hundred-one hundred and fifty years ago, impoverished Jewish, Polish, and German immigrants had relatively low crime rates. Today, poor Asian Americans have low crime rates. There seems to be a cultural aspect as well.
Yet the poorest counties aren't those with the highest murder rate.
Well, if you took NYC when I was a kid, the crime was worse and the population was the same.
Exactly, my first time in NYC was 1975 and I was 21. Midtown and Brooklyn was very different then.
A county is a big thing. Some have populations in the millions and some in the dozens. Beverly Hills and Compton are in the same county. What point are you trying to make? That some neighborhoods in our biggest cities suffer high crime rates?
Yes, they do. In red states and in blue states. By the numbers, on a per capita basis, the poorer the individual neighborhood the higher the crime rates tend to be. This particular case fits the old adage, "Figures lie and liars figure". We all get it here.
at point are you trying to make?
That America's murder problem is largely confined to very few areas.
We all get it here.
Then why so many misrepresentations, deflections and made up claims?
The ugly truth of liberal management in large urban areas.
I’m just waiting for some morons to come along and blame inanimate objects for the actions of the uncivilized animals killing people.
"Liberal justice policy:"
1) keep convicted violent offenders on the streets
2) watch them re-offend and drive up crime statistics
3) use these higher crime statistics to justify more gun confiscations from licenced gun owners. It's a pattern that unfortunately wins urban seats."
Ec
Homicides in the City of Angeles rose 52 per cent last year from 2019, and shooting incidents were up 59 per cent, according to LAPD data. Have you listened to the Mayor of LA?
"Like other major cities around the country, Los Angeles has seen violent crime go up in recent years. The 397 fatal shootings in 2021 were more than any other year in the last decade — and 50% more than in 2020. Homicides and shootings, though, are down over the same period as last year, according to data from mid-March."
Your premise is that liberal policies have led to all time high crime and murder rates. That is absolutely false. We are not seeing all time high crime and murder rates, not even close.
And saying that a murder rate rose 50% or whatever , from one to year to another means virtually nothing. Any crime expert worth their salt will tell you that year to year statistics are meaningless.
CORRECT!
Exactly, the reduction of cows in urban areas is responsible for the recent uptick.
Vic, we dont have all time high crime.
Why do you insist on falsifying about this?
Your comments that crime is not at a all time high while true, is simply disingenuous.
Almost all crime today is up significantly from recent lows. Trying to compare todays crime data, to decades old crime data, is just foolish for any truly thinking person.
“…the reduction of cows in urban areas is responsible…”
….and yet the bullshit is piled deeper than ever.
If you don't want to believe the statistics consider the flight. The people who live in blue cities are telling us with their feet:
Bad Neighborhoods: 1% Of Counties Responsible For 42% Of America’s Murders
To say that this headline is misleading may be the understatement of the century.
A lot of these counties that have few or no murders have more cattle than people.
Exactly, cattle are well known at reducing the homicide rate by making people more gentle.
The left caused this mayhem. It grew out of the riots of 2020 and calls to defund police departments and the appointments of DA's who were social justice warriors and refused to prosecute certain crimes, changed bail laws and put repeat offenders right back out on the street.
Vic, NYC murders , this year, are a fraction of what they were for decades between 1970 and 2000.
What were social justice warriors doing back then? They must have caused all that crime, right?
No, it was the CIA importing Crack into Black neighborhoods,
Overcrowding and overpopulation in general contribute to this.
What a ridiculous premise. These are nothing more than raw numbers. Let's take my hometown. New York’s five boroughs had 465 OR adjusted as a percent of the population, 8,468,000, or .0054%.
Here is the crime rate by state:
10 Most Dangerous States in the US: 2022
Homicide by state:
and not to ruin this totally misleading article, NYC has had a drop in murders:
SMH.
You completely missed the point of the article, which is that America's murder problem occurs on an extremely localized level.
From the article:
nd not to ruin this totally misleading article, NYC has had a drop in murders:
Lol. Why would a completely irrelevant fact "ruin" this article?
So your idea of local is 109 square miles, which is what NYC is? Give me a break.
the neighborhoods they are zeroing on would be non white neighborhoods, which is the point of this entire seed
That seems to be where the murders happen. Your city is a prime example of the problem.
Good point. New York is only one county.
Are there places in the world, past or present, that have high murder rates and are not black "neighborhoods" ?
Someone else on this seed called these people "animals".
Why have so many black people not "assimilated" into mainstream American society? Do you think racism might have anything at all to do with it Greg?
The author Glenn Loury once wrote that black people would never be assimilated completely because the prejudice against them is based on their skin color, and thus they would always be viewed as being an "other".
There is no doubt that there is dysfunction in black inner city neighborhoods, but the answer is not to simply put them in prison or tell them to pull themselves up by their bootstraps.
The governor of Florida wants to outlaw African American history courses in Florida schools. Do you think that is going to help anything?
So your argument is racism makes black people shoot black people.
Why do we have "ghettos" ?
People with less money live where housing is cheaper.
The homicide rate in those 109 square miles isn't evenly spread. Give me a break.
Some seem content to focus on geography alone as it feeds the narrative, conveniently ignoring the myriad, unspoken, unresolved societal issues that drive the data. Cherry picking and lazy and as always, void of solutions.
I was just thinking that. All this effort in order to try to point something out yet nothing beyond that...
Exactly, if only they would post solutions like you do.
How about we start by acknowledging that the playing field is anything but level. The educational opportunities, the employment choices, the access to health services, the access to judicial services, etc. are all different for an inner city family than for their neighbors in that same cities suburbs. That is wrong. Instead of throwing shade or throwing money, establish stakeholder committees at the local, state and federal levels and have the tough, honest discussions.
Just a thought, rye…awaiting the inevitable questions.
Don’t we already have stakeholder committees at all levels?
Why does an unleveled playing field, cause some to kill others struggling on the same field instead of striking out at their oppressors?
That is quite a distortion.
ABC reported 486 homicides in 2022.
Homicides so far this year are trending down 12.5% compared to the same time period in 2021.
However, the murder rate over the last 12 months is up when compared to the annual average over the last three years, and the frequency of killings remains higher than it was before the pandemic.
The premise of the seed is that the risk is not the same neighborhood to neighborhood. The ABC site lets you drill down and see the disparity by neighborhood.
But your right that compared to many other cities, NY has a much lower rate.
My whole point is that raw numbers are hardly proof of anything. If that is true, then I should be afraid to move to Alaska, since it has the highest murder rate of any state. There are more to numbers and that is why people use statistics to look at raw numbers.
It would depend on where in Alaska as homicide rates vary considerably by region or town.
No matter what, we can all present numbers to prove a point.... As I did with Alaska. But your map does provide an interesting fact. Most of the crime occurs in densely populated areas, which is not a surprise since more people equals denser areas of crime.
The point presented in this article is a false premise.
No, the rate was per 100,000 people, it was adjusted for population.
What premise do you imagine is false? Please provide a source backing up your claim.
Then why are the cities listed in the article not all in the most dangerous states?
10 Most Dangerous States In The US: 2022
The cities listed are:
Where on that top 10 list is Chicago, California, Texas, Pennsylvania, or NY?
What a ridiculous macroscopic comparison.
Bore down to the large city level and crime is rampant by comparison to smaller cities and more rural areas in nearly every case. Michigan is a great example. Take Detroit out of the picture and Michigan is one of the safest states you can live in. Other high crime states on your list can likely say the same thing.
Large state population statistical creep is not very helpful to this discussion IMO.
Except the most dangerous states don't include any of the cities in this article.
Please refer to the comment above. Those states have no large urban areas like Detroit, yet they lead in murder.
Unless your argument is that cities cause crime. That is a whole different discussion, right?
For starters, murder and property crime are not the same thing.
Well, I don’t know about New York but in Michigan cities like Detroit are usually part of numerous counties. Most of the city of Detroit is in Wayne county and is counted as such in stats like this when the discussion is about counties.
Your words not mine.
Yes it would be if that is what I said. Which it wasn’t.
This article is about counties. Unless you are trying say it’s about States and Cities. That would be an entirely different discussion wouldn’t it?
Cites have crime due to density. The bigger question is why those cities don't affect overall state rates, like Alaska.
Still on cities eh? Okay.
I don’t know Alaska like I know Michigan but I bet you Anchorage probably jacks up their state crime rates just Wayne county (Detroit) jacks up Michigan’s. Regardless, one murder in Alaska gets magnified over states with much larger populations like New York or California.
One thing you can’t escape. Most big cities with a crime problem are Democrat controlled. Debatable causal effects. Density? Policy?
Both are causes. How much of each is the debatable part.
What a load of shit.
According to several sources, Mississippi and Louisiana top lists for most homicides per capita.
Those are states, the seed is about counties, cities and neighborhoods.
Bazinga!
Some people seem to have a hard time grasping the premise of the report. Common sense and basic life experience would tell you that murders aren't evenly distributed throughout the country, state or even cities.
I don't know how to make it any simpler than this.
So your whole argument here is that densely populated areas have higher crime?
No. It's that a massively disproportionate amount of murders in this country take place in just a few areas.
Like Alaska?
Yes, with more people there is more violent crime.... is there a story here or some new insight?