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The Coming Biden Blowout

  

Category:  Op/Ed

Via:  hallux  •  last year  •  95 comments

By:   David Frum - The Atlantic

The Coming Biden Blowout
Republicans thought about running without Trump in 2024—but lost their nerve. They’re heading for electoral disaster again.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



The Republican plan for 2024 is already failing, and the party leadership can see it and knows it.

There was no secret to a more intelligent and intentional Republican plan for 2024. It would have gone like this:

(1) Replace Donald Trump at the head of the ticket with somebody less obnoxious and impulsive.

(2) Capitalize on inflation and other economic troubles.

(3) Offer plausible ideas on drugs, crime, and border enforcement.

(4) Reassure women worried about the post- Roe   future.

(5) Don’t be too obvious about suppressing Democratic votes, because really blatant voter suppression will provoke and mobilize Democrats to vote, not discourage them.

Unfortunately for them, Republicans have turned every element of the plan upside down and inside out. Despite lavish anti-Trump donations by big-money Republicans, Trump is cruising to easy renomination. Rather than capitalize on existing economic troubles, Republicans have started a debt-ceiling fight that will cast them as the   cause   of America’s economic troubles. Worse for them, the troubles are fast receding. Inflation is vexing, but the recession that Republicans hoped for did not materialize: Instead, Joe Biden has presided over the fastest and steepest unemployment reduction in U.S. economic history.

The big new Republican idea to  halt the flow of drugs  is to bomb or invade Mexico. Instead of reassuring women, Republican state legislators and Republican judges are signaling that they will support a national abortion ban if their party wins in 2024—and are already building the apparatus of surveillance and control necessary to make such a ban effective. Republican state-level voter-suppression schemes have been noisy and alarming when the GOP plan called for them to be subtle and technical.

It’s early in the election cycle, of course, but not too early to wonder: Are we watching a Republican electoral disaster in the making?

Biden’s poll numbers are only so-so. But a presidential election offers a stark and binary choice: This or that? Biden may fall short of some voters’ imagined ideal of a president, but in 2024, voters won’t be comparing the Democrat with that ideal. They will be comparing him with the Republican alternative.

An American must be at least 36 years old to have participated in an election in which the Republican candidate for president won the most votes. An American must be at least 52 years old to have participated in   two   presidential elections in which the Republican nominee got the most votes.

Despite this, over the past 30 years, the GOP has succeeded in leveraging its smaller share of the vote into a larger share of national power. That same 36-year-old American has lived half of his or her adult life under a Republican-controlled Senate, and even more of it under a Republican-majority House of Representatives. Through almost all of that American’s adult life, Republicans have held more than half of all state legislatures. Conservative dominance of the federal courts has become ever more total in the past two decades, culminating in the Supreme Court’s reversal of   Roe v. Wade .

Some of the Republicans’ leverage can be explained by the American electoral system’s tilt against metropolitan areas. Some of their success is due to luck. The GOP’s big year of 2010 also happened to be a redistricting year, so one successful election translated into a decade of more comprehensively gerrymandered state legislatures. (Democrats have not had a big win in a redistricting year since 1930.)

But the tilt is not infinite, and the party’s luck is running out. Republicans have suffered a series of heavy defeats since the rise of Trump: loss of the House in 2018, loss of the presidency in 2020, loss of the Senate in 2021, losses at the state level in 2022 (Democrats won net two governorships and net four legislative chambers).

Trump-era Republicans have difficulty absorbing and reacting to negative news. Led by Trump himself, they misrepresented 2016 as— in the words   of his former adviser Kellyanne Conway—a blowout, historic landslide. They misrepresented 2020 as an election that they deservedly won, but that was stolen from them by fraud and chicanery. Out-of-office Republicans like Paul Ryan   will acknowledge   on CNN that Trump lost. But they won’t say it on Fox News. Trump’s own leading party rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis,   won’t say it . And if Trump is indeed the primary winner that he insists he is, what on Earth is the case for denying this political superstar the third nomination he wants?

The Democrats, by contrast, are a party that has trouble absorbing and reacting to good news. Few Democrats predicted that the party would do as well as it did in 2022. Most feel deep dread and anxiety about 2024.

Maybe it’s good to guard against complacency. The American electoral system’s tilt against Democratic-voting regions remains as pronounced as ever. The Senate map   is especially unpromising   for Democrats. Yet it’s also important to understand that although America is intensely and bitterly polarized, it is not evenly polarized.

The potential strength of the Democratic coalition is greater than that of the Trump coalition. The Democratic disadvantage is that their coalition spans a lot of groups that face extra difficulties casting a ballot: renters, college students, hourly workers, single parents, people who don’t own cars. The American voting system has been engineered to deter and discourage them.

If motivated to turn out, however, those deterred and discouraged blocs can swing elections. In 2018, 36 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds turned out, the highest level recorded. Their votes helped change control of the House. Turnout of this cohort in 2022 finished   second only   to what it had been in 2018, and those votes altered the political complexion of many state legislatures. The state that had the highest youth turnout in 2022 was Michigan—not so coincidentally, the state where Democrats   scored   some of their biggest gains, flipping both chambers of the state legislature from red to blue.

Chief among what motivates voters who face obstacles is hope. People will endure and overcome barriers when they feel that their vote can make a difference. If Democrats succeed in communicating hope in 2024 that young people can contribute to a decisive defeat of Trump and MAGA extremism, then that is what they will do.

This cycle, that hope is well founded. Republicans are doing everything wrong. They are talking to their voters about Trump’s personal grievances and about boutique culture-war issues that their own base does not much care about, such as the state of Florida’s “ war on Disney .” At the same time, Republican leaders are confronting Democratic voters with extremist threats on issues they care intensely about: bans on  abortion medication  by mail,  restrictions on the freedom  of young women to travel across state lines,  attacks on student voting rights , proposed big  cuts to Medicaid and food stamps  in the GOP debt-ceiling ransom demand. Republicans offer no economic message and no affirming vision, even as they make new moves to police women’s bodies and start a land war in Mexico. They are well on their way to earning a deep, nasty defeat—and the smell of that defeat may be an additional draw to the polls for the Democratic-leaning constituencies that will inflict it.

Of all the major-party candidates to run for president since 2000, only one scored worse than Trump in the popular vote: John McCain in 2008. That was not a personal verdict on McCain. He was running for a third Republican term in the throes of the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression and against the backdrop of the most grinding military frustration since Vietnam.

Biden’s   reelection-announcement video , released yesterday, defines the principal issue at stake in 2024 as “freedom.” From the New Deal to Trump, “freedom” was a Republican slogan; “security” was its Democratic counterpart. But Trump, together with DeSantis, has completely rebranded the GOP as the party of bossing around women, minorities, and young people.

If Trump secures the GOP nomination to run for a second term in 2024, the conditions are all in place to transfer the title of “worst popular-vote loser of the century” from the great Arizona senator to the putsch-plotting ex-president. Trump’s own party is doing its part to deliver this debacle. Soon enough, all Americans will have the opportunity to do theirs.


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Hallux
Professor Principal
1  seeder  Hallux    last year

What with DeSantis tilting at cultural windmills, Nikki Haley running around trying to please everyone without pleasing anyone and the craziness of the MAGA crowd either in or out of office, David Frum might be correct in this early prediction.

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
2  devangelical    last year

anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ, anti-gun legislation, voter suppression...

maga shit is going to the sewage treatment plant in '24.

good riddance to unamerican scum.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Principal
3  Sean Treacy    last year

Biden has a 37% approval rating and Republicans lead on the Generic Ballot for Congress after winning 51% of the House votes in 2022.

Predicting a Biden blowout is just wishcasting. 

 
 
 
Hallux
Professor Principal
3.1  seeder  Hallux  replied to  Sean Treacy @3    last year

As was predicting a 2020 big red wave.

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
3.1.1  devangelical  replied to  Hallux @3.1    last year

heh, a red wave flowing into the federal prison system...

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
3.2  JohnRussell  replied to  Sean Treacy @3    last year

If we elect Donald Trump, a known traitor, this country will never live it down. (Certainly not with the lifetimes of anyone who can read this). I really dont understand what people like you dont get about that. 

Donald Trump approved of a plan to overturn the election , a plan that a federal judge said was likely a federal crime. Is that a joke to you? 

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Principal
3.2.1  Sean Treacy  replied to  JohnRussell @3.2    last year

I really dont understand what people like you dont get about that. 

All I did was point out the truth that is obvious to anyone who can read a poll. 

The reality is Biden is  a rapidly deteriorating 80 year old  compulsive liar/grifter propped up only by a partisan media who does everything they can to protect him, including spoon-feeding him "questions". His party, when not  telling people that the biological realty  of being a woman is just a state of mind, is obsessed with dividing the country by race and trying to overthrow the goal of  of equal opportunity for all and replace it with government enforced equality of results based on race.

[deleted]

So yeah, despite Trump being a world class asshole, the alternative is worse, because its premised on systematic damage to the country.  Better a normally functioning government doing normal things led by a egomaniacal buffoon than a government of reality denying racialists intent on fundamentally transforming America into some some sort of Orwellian nightmare. 

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
3.2.2  JohnRussell  replied to  Sean Treacy @3.2.1    last year
Better a normally functioning government doing normal things led by a egomaniacal buffoon

Hilarious and bizarre. WHILE TRUMP WAS THE GOVERNMENT he plotted to overturn the presidential election WHICH HE HAD LOST. 

He is not just an egomaniacal buffoon, he is a traitor. 

Beyond that, he has personally spread dozens of conspiracy theories (including his embracing of the insane Q Anon cult). 

No one should have to tolerate 5 more minutes of Trump, let alone 5 more years. 

Last night he hugged a woman (Q Anon) at his political rally , who earlier in the day told a reporter that Mike Pence should be executed. Trump hugged this nutcase and told her what a wonderful person she was. 

You could say Trump didnt know all the details of her beliefs, but he knew she was a Jan 6th convictee, because that is why she was allowed to meet him. 

She later compared him to Jesus Christ. 

We dont want this shit anymore Sean and we are not going to accept it. 

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Professor Quiet
3.2.3  Jack_TX  replied to  JohnRussell @3.2    last year
If we elect Donald Trump, a known traitor, this country will never live it down.

Define "live it down".

Donald Trump approved of a plan to overturn the election , a plan that a federal judge said was likely a federal crime.

Let us know when they charge him.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
3.2.4  JohnRussell  replied to  Jack_TX @3.2.3    last year

[deleted]

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.5  TᵢG  replied to  Jack_TX @3.2.3    last year
Let us know when they charge him.

If what you already know is not sufficient for you to determine Trump's wrongdoing (i.e. form your own personal opinion), then I would think you would only care after a verdict is rendered.    Charging Trump is insignificant compared to convicting him after a trial.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.6  Texan1211  replied to  Jack_TX @3.2.3    last year

No evidence is necessary when it comes to Trump.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.7  TᵢG  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.6    last year

Texan, the evidence of Trump's wrongdoing is over-the-top.  

Guilt of a crime is what has not been determined.   But surely you see it was wrong for Trump to suborn Pence to table certified election results in an attempt to 'win' the presidency by plurality of the remaining votes.   (I can list more obvious wrongdoings.)

So, in summary:

Guilt:  Not yet determined

Wrongdoing:   Clearly

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.8  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.7    last year

Yes, I have read that tripe repeatedly now.

Give it a rest for a bit, will ya?

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.9  TᵢG  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.8    last year

Tripe?   So you do not consider that a list of wrongdoing by Trump??

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Principal
3.2.10  Sean Treacy  replied to  JohnRussell @3.2.2    last year
LE TRUMP WAS THE GOVERNMENT he plotted to overturn the presidential election WHICH HE HAD LOST. 

By advocating a dumb plan that tried to win the election under the rules.  He lost and followed the will of Congress, the Courts etc.

Compare that to AOC and other Democrats arguing that Biden should literally ignore Supreme Court rulings. 

e has personally spread dozens of conspiracy theories 

Lol. The same week we find out the Biden campaign coordinated with media and former Intelligence to lie about his son's laptop being Russians disinformation, you want to complain about spreading conspiracy theories?

,  Trump hugged this nutcase and told her what a wonderful person she was.

Yeah, Biden would never visit a child molester who attacked police with a knife.  

e dont want this shit anymore Sean and we are not going to accept it. 

[deleted]

IF the Democratic Party is where it was 20 years ago, intent on raising taxes on the rich, protecting unions etc, they'd win 45 states against Trump.  But they've gone so far over the edge rational people can't vote for them. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.11  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.9    last year
Tripe? 

That IS the word I used.

Why the question?

So you do not consider that a list of wrongdoing by Trump??

I consider it the very same tripe I see repeated here dozens of times by posters, including yourself.

I guess I tire of people claiming to be taking the high road or being logical in all things falling into the habit of repeating themselves ad nauseum.

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
3.2.12  bugsy  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.9    last year
So you do not consider that a list of wrongdoing by Trump??

Oh boy...Here we go again..

Most, if not all of us, have given our opinion on if we believe Trump committed "wrongdoing". I, for one , a million times, have said yes, he has.

Obviously, what we have posted is not satisfactory, so......

Exactly how do you want us to word our answers so that you will stop bringing up "wrongdoing"?

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.13  TᵢG  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.11    last year

You are thus part of the reason Trump remains relevant.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.14  Texan1211  replied to  Sean Treacy @3.2.10    last year
But they've gone so far over the edge rational people can't vote for them. 

EXACTLY!!

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.15  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.13    last year
You are thus part of the reason Trump remains relevant.

Well, that and a few bucks will get you a cup of coffee.

I have nothing to do with Trump's relevancy, nor do I give a damn if he is relevant.

I know he sure lives rent-free in many liberal heads.

Pity most of them can't recognize it.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.16  TᵢG  replied to  bugsy @3.2.12    last year
I, for one , a million times, have said yes, he has.

Drama.  

I do not recall asking you this question so why do you reply as if I did?

But since you opined, you clearly do not consider my list of wrongdoing tripe.   You recognize Trump's wrongdoing but Texan calls the allegations of wrongdoing "tripe".

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.17  Texan1211  replied to  bugsy @3.2.12    last year
Obviously, what we have posted is not satisfactory, so......

I do believe only over-the-top, maniacal condemnation of Trump 24/7 will suffice for some who like to dictate what each of our responses to anything Trump should be.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.18  TᵢG  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.15    last year
I have nothing to do with Trump's relevancy, nor do I give a damn if he is relevant.

Sure you do.   It is people like you who refuse to recognize Trump's wrongdoing that keeps him relevant.

Get a clue, Texan.

If the GOP did not bend over for Trump he would not be threatening to be your nominee (and thus lose the general for you).

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.19  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.16    last year

[deleted]

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.20  TᵢG  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.17    last year
I do believe only over-the-top, maniacal condemnation of Trump 24/7 will suffice for some who like to dictate what each of our responses to anything Trump should be.

How about something more rational (and not dramatic) like the recognition Trump has engaged in substantial wrongdoing and, because of this, should never be allowed political power — especially the presidency?

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
3.2.21  bugsy  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.16    last year
Drama.  

No...reality.

"I do not recall"

Your problem, not mine. You have asked many, many, many, many, many....times if I believe Trump did "wrongdoing". You also asked repeatedly what repercussions should he face for such "wrongdoings". That has also been answered many times.

"calls the allegations of wrongdoing "tripe"."

No, what he is saying is you asking the same question over and over again, getting the same answer over and over again, has gotten stale.

Now, I ask again...

Exactly how do you want us to word our answers so that you will stop bringing up "wrongdoing"?

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.22  TᵢG  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.19    last year

I know.    What has confused you about this?

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.23  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.18    last year
Sure you do.

Bullshit no matter how you spin it.

It is people like you who refuse to recognize Trump's wrongdoing that keeps him relevant

An ignorant, to say the least, comment.

Get a clue, Texan.

Buy yourself a vowel and realize the left's constant stream of anti-Trump propaganda are keeping him far more relevant than me ignoring him does.

If the GOP did not bend over for Trump he would not be threatening to be your nominee (and thus lose the general for you).

Okay then, I will just pretend the Democratic Party hasn't been wielding a shield to protect Biden at every turn.

Get a clue your own self.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.24  TᵢG  replied to  bugsy @3.2.21    last year
Your problem, not mine. You have asked many, many, many, many, many....times if I believe Trump did "wrongdoing". Y

Did I just now ask you?   The answer is 'no'.   But you replied as if I just now did ask you.

Exactly how do you want us to word our answers so that you will stop bringing up "wrongdoing"?

Yes, Trump engaged in wrongdoing.   

You have stated this but Texan refuses to do so.   That is why my post was to Texan and not to you.   See how that works?

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.25  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.22    last year
I know.

I see absolutely nothing that could or would lead a reasonable person to think that.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.26  TᵢG  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.23    last year

Was it wrong for Trump to suborn Pence to table certified votes so that he could 'win' the presidency by plurality?

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
3.2.27  bugsy  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.24    last year
Did I just now ask you? 

Don't care. I have the right to opine on any subject/post, just as you do.

"Yes, Trump engaged in wrongdoing."

OK...been there...done that...now what?

"That is why my post was to Texan and not to you"

Again, I have the right to opine on any subject/post. My response was to educate you on the numerous times you have asked this question, and that behavior has gotten stale.

See how that works?

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.28  Texan1211  replied to  bugsy @3.2.21    last year
No, what he is saying is you asking the same question over and over again, getting the same answer over and over again, has gotten stale.

Wow, you must be a sheer GENIUS to get that from my post.

Others aren't so fortunate.

Oh, since it may be necessary:

/S

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.29  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.24    last year
You have stated this but Texan refuses to do so.   That is why my post was to Texan and not to you.   See how that works?

I, like him, have stated it specifically to you several of the dozens of time you repeated it.

Whether you can accept it or not is not my concern or care.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.30  TᵢG  replied to  bugsy @3.2.27    last year
Don't care. I have the right to opine on any subject/post, just as you do.

Of course you do.   But if you pretend that I asked you a question then I will call you out on it.

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
3.2.31  bugsy  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.28    last year
Wow, you must be a sheer GENIUS to get that from my post.

No, not a genius. Just able to recognize common sense when common sense is obvious.

Others, apparently, have problems with that.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.32  TᵢG  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.29    last year
I, like him, have stated it specifically to you several of the dozens of time you repeated it.

How can you call a list of Trump's wrongdoings "tripe" if you hold that he did indeed engage in those wrongdoings?

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
3.2.33  bugsy  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.30    last year
But if you pretend that I asked you a question then I will call you out on it.

Again...I, like you, have the right to respond to any post/subject, just as you do.

I also have the right to answer any question...no matter if it is directed to me or not.

You don't like it? Maybe a different OPINION site would be more to your liking.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.34  Texan1211  replied to  bugsy @3.2.21    last year
Exactly how do you want us to word our answers so that you will stop bringing up "wrongdoing"?

Personally, I feel as though foaming at the mouth would have to be involved.

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
3.2.35  bugsy  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.32    last year
How can you call a list of Trump's wrongdoings "tripe" if you hold that he did indeed engage in those wrongdoings?

Again....you asking the same question over and over and over....again is the tripe. Not the list itself.

Get a clue

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
3.2.36  bugsy  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.34    last year
Personally, I feel as though foaming at the mouth would have to be involved.

I'm sure pearl clutching comes into play somewhere.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.37  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.32    last year

Now you are just asking the same shit over and over again even though someone EXPLAINED it to you in post 3.2.21.

Some might consider that trolling.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.38  Texan1211  replied to  bugsy @3.2.31    last year
No, not a genius. Just able to recognize common sense when common sense is obvious.

Unfortunately, not obvious enough for some.

Or maybe the common sense part is simply unrecognizable to them?

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
3.2.39  bugsy  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.37    last year

[Deleted]

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.40  TᵢG  replied to  bugsy @3.2.33    last year
Again...I, like you, have the right to respond to any post/subject, just as you do.

You pretended that I had just asked you a question when my question was specifically to Texan and then you (dishonestly) whined that I asked you after you have answered "a million" times.

Your pretense is intellectual dishonesty (and low-grade trolling).

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.41  TᵢG  replied to  bugsy @3.2.35    last year
Again....you asking the same question over and over and over....again is the tripe. Not the list itself.

What, specifically, is tripe in my post @3.2.7?:

Texan, the evidence of Trump's wrongdoing is over-the-top.  

Guilt of a crime is what has not been determined.   But surely you see it was wrong for Trump to suborn Pence to table certified election results in an attempt to 'win' the presidency by plurality of the remaining votes.   (I can list more obvious wrongdoings.)

So, in summary:

Guilt:  Not yet determined

Wrongdoing:   Clearly

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.42  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.20    last year

How's about learning to accept an answer when you get it whether you like it or not?

How about coming up with something NEW just for a change of pace?

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
3.2.43  JohnRussell  replied to  Sean Treacy @3.2.10    last year

[Deleted]

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.44  TᵢG  replied to  Texan1211 @3.2.42    last year
How's about learning to accept an answer when you get it whether you like it or not?

And, as usual, you offer deflection instead of standing tall and making a clear statement.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.2.45  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.44    last year
And, as usual, you offer deflection instead of standing tall and making a clear statement.

he says...........................while ignoring the question.

LOL.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
3.2.47  JBB  replied to  dennis smith @3.2.46    last year

Yet Biden is successfully leading the free world against Putin and the Russians, uniting Europe and NATO like never before.

 
 
 
Drinker of the Wry
Senior Expert
3.2.48  Drinker of the Wry  replied to  JBB @3.2.47    last year

Some of the free world anyhow.

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
3.2.49  bugsy  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.40    last year
You pretended that I had just asked you a question when my question was specifically to Texan

Don't give a shit what you think I "pretended " to do.

I can answer any question to any poster, no matter who asked the [question Deleted]

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
3.2.50  bugsy  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.41    last year
What, specifically, is tripe in my post @3.2.7?:

[Deleted]  My 3.2.35 is in response  to 3.3.32, not 37. I even said in my post the fact that you ask the same question over and over again, not what is in the question.

Get a clue.

 
 
 
Thrawn 31
Professor Guide
3.2.51  Thrawn 31  replied to  dennis smith @3.2.46    last year
turned tail and ran out of Afghanistan as he did.\

So we should still be in Afghanistan? Could have done that a lot better though

Trump wanted out also but had conditions on his plan rather than simply retreating as Biden did

Yerah, hosting the Taliban leaders to a wine and cheese summit at Camp David. \

Our country will never live down what Biden has done in his 2+ years.

What exactly is there to liver down? 

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Professor Quiet
3.2.52  Jack_TX  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.5    last year
If what you already know is not sufficient for you to determine Trump's wrongdoing (i.e. form your own personal opinion), then I would think you would only care after a verdict is rendered. Charging Trump is insignificant compared to convicting him after a trial.

John said "crime". 

As often as John has squawked about Trump being a criminal, he has yet to be charged.

They can't convict him if they don't charge him.

Now... I have a sneaking suspicion that Democrats intend to try and help him win the nomination, and then charge him shortly after that.  It's about the only scenario that gets Biden reelected.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
3.2.53  JohnRussell  replied to  Jack_TX @3.2.52    last year

If Trump doesnt get charged, is he fit to be president of the United States for four more years? 

Last night he hugged, physically hugged, a Q Anon cultist who has called for every congressperson who voted to certify the 2020 election to be executed.

So is he fit to be president of the United States? 

Leave Biden out of it. 

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Professor Quiet
3.2.54  Jack_TX  replied to  JohnRussell @3.2.53    last year
If Trump doesnt get charged, is he fit to be president of the United States for four more years? 

Well I won't vote for him.  

But I realize that doesn't answer your question.

"Fit" is a subjective idea, and everyone will view that differently.

To me, the important issue is the right of the American people to govern themselves.  If they choose someone, they have deemed that person to be "fit", whether I share that assessment or not.

The American system of government has proven strong enough to withstand some really incredibly awful people as president.  If Trump is elected again, we'll survive him again.  Same for Biden.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
3.2.55  JBB  replied to  Jack_TX @3.2.52    last year

Trump is charged with 34 felonies in NY...

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.56  TᵢG  replied to  Jack_TX @3.2.52    last year
John said "crime".

Yes he did.   

My comment was that charging Trump with a crime does not bring very much new information.   It gives us a crime to consider, but does not do much to change our base of information regarding Trump's wrongdoing.    What could affect our information is a trial (and especially if the verdict is 'guilty').   

You have made it clear that you believe a substantial amount of information exists which might counter what appears to be obvious wrongdoing by Trump.   That information, should it exist, will come out during a trial.

Now... I have a sneaking suspicion that Democrats intend to try and help him win the nomination, and then charge him shortly after that.  It's about the only scenario that gets Biden reelected.

I also think that the Ds want Trump to be nominated.   Regardless of who runs.    But if they are scheming as you describe, I would again raise my concern that instead of trying to find a way to get Biden reelected, they should be finding a way to get a solid candidate for PotUS.

 
 
 
Drinker of the Wry
Senior Expert
3.2.57  Drinker of the Wry  replied to  JBB @3.2.55    last year

Maybe the city that made him can break him.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
3.2.58  JohnRussell  replied to  Jack_TX @3.2.54    last year

So you are unwilling to say that someone who embraces a Q  Anon nut who wants American congresspeople executed is unfit to lead the country. Got it. 

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
3.2.59  JBB  replied to  JohnRussell @3.2.58    last year

That is how Hitler got power in Germany...

Germans did not believe him dangerous!

Trump has proven he cannot be trusted.

 
 
 
Drinker of the Wry
Senior Expert
3.2.60  Drinker of the Wry  replied to  JBB @3.2.59    last year

It’s amazing how many people think that Americans don’t know international history, but so many here are experts on 20th German history.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
3.2.61  JBB  replied to  Drinker of the Wry @3.2.60    last year

How did you think Hitler came to power?

 
 
 
Drinker of the Wry
Senior Expert
3.2.62  Drinker of the Wry  replied to  JBB @3.2.61    last year

Well, I'm not a German history export like you but some of the circumstances include:

  • Great Depression attracted populists in both the USA and Germany
  • WWI peace treaty was viewed by Germans as unfair
  • The pre-Hitler regime was viewed as old and incompetent
  • The allies were reluctant to stand up to Hitler
 
 
 
Jack_TX
Professor Quiet
3.2.63  Jack_TX  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.56    last year
My comment was that charging Trump with a crime does not bring very much new information.

I think "the list of laws he broke" is significant new information.

That information, should it exist, will come out during a trial.

Which, I suspect, is a major reason we haven't had one.

I would again raise my concern that instead of trying to find a way to get Biden reelected, they should be finding a way to get a solid candidate for PotUS.

I could not agree more.

But I think they have a similar problem to the Republicans.  Any actually good candidate is likely to get torpedoed by the lunatic fringe of the party.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Professor Quiet
3.2.64  Jack_TX  replied to  JohnRussell @3.2.58    last year
So you are unwilling to say that someone who embraces a Q  Anon nut who wants American congresspeople executed is unfit to lead the country. Got it. 

I am unwilling to engage in your multi-year campaign of unhinged and spineless batshit hysteria, yes.

More importantly, I am also unwilling to interfere with the right of the American people to govern themselves. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
3.2.65  TᵢG  replied to  Jack_TX @3.2.63    last year
I think "the list of laws he broke" is significant new information.

It is new information in that we would now have a legal opinion on potential crimes.   That would be welcome information.   It is NOT new information in the sense of providing details about Trump's wrongdoing beyond what we know or details that would defend against the apparent wrongdoing. 

So, sure, it is technically new information but not valuable in determining the truth.   The truth (well, an approximation of it, hopefully) will emerge from a trial.

Which, I suspect, is a major reason we haven't had one.

That seems to imply that you suspect a trial might exonerate Trump.   That it would show his Big Lie campaign to be an honest attempt to protect the integrity of the US electoral process (or something like that)?   That Trump really did not try to coerce officials to dishonestly misrepresent the voters or suborn Pence to table certified results, or ... or ...?    That does not sound like something you would conclude.

I suspect that the lack of progress is based on political calculations.   It sickens me, but our system of justice is intertwined with politics.

Any actually good candidate is likely to get torpedoed by the lunatic fringe of the party.

It is very difficult for a party to not support an incumbent.   The political dynamics in support of an incumbent are overpowering.   It would take something catastrophic to break that.   (This is true for the D and R parties ... wait for the cry of bothsidesism).

Another factor is (sadly) that the good candidates have too much integrity to do what it takes to be a viable political candidate.   I think of Condoleezza Rice as an example of someone of admirable qualities and experience who is unwilling to engage in the dishonesty required to win.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
Professor Quiet
3.2.66  Jack_TX  replied to  TᵢG @3.2.65    last year
That seems to imply that you suspect a trial might exonerate Trump

Exonerate him in your opinion?  No.  Exonerate him with regard to criminal actions?  Yes.

I believe there a two possible explanations for the lack of charges.  Either they do not have confidence that the entire body of evidence will support a conviction or they are waiting for a time window that will be more politically advantageous.

 
 
 
Snuffy
Professor Participates
4  Snuffy    last year

I said it before and I'll say it again.  Biden will not have as easy a time of it this time around.  He doesn't have Covid so he will have to hit the campaign trail and we all know how he does unscripted.  And he has to run on his record which IMO is abysmal.  Many people including Democrats do not want him to run again citing his age, remember that a vote for Biden is really a vote for President Harris.

That said,  you are correct in that the Republican leadership is doing everything they can do promote a Democrat win.  When 70% of the voting public wants nationwide abortion they really need to listen.  They are piss-poor at reaching out to the younger voters who have grown up in a digital age.  Republicans can no longer count on the AARP vote.  Republicans need to work to insure more moderate candidates make it to the general, they cannot allow the extremists to win the primaries.

I doubt that the 24 elections will be a blowout due to the above issues.  But we really need better candidates. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
4.1  TᵢG  replied to  Snuffy @4    last year
Biden will not have as easy a time of it this time around.

I deeply hope Biden will not be a candidate.  But if he is, the ease of winning is a function of the GOP nominee.   If Trump is the nominee, Biden will very likely win.

GOP:   Ensure Trump is NOT the nominee

D:   Ensure Biden / Harris is NOT the nominee

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
4.1.1  JBB  replied to  TᵢG @4.1    last year

As long as Trump looks to be the gop's likely nominee Democrats will support the man proven to be able to whoop him. While most people wish for different candidates we're staring down the barrel of a rematch. In this case Biden must be In it to win it. And, this graphic explains why I am so confident he can and will. IMO he must...

original

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
4.1.2  TᵢG  replied to  JBB @4.1.1    last year

If it comes down to Biden vs. Trump then there is no rational choice other than Biden.

If so, then once again we see candidates worse than any other pair of candidates in history.  2020 was bad enough.   Now we have the same candidates 4 years older??

Our system is seriously fucked up.   Why is it that people like Tim Walz do not step up to the plate?

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
4.1.3  JBB  replied to  TᵢG @4.1.2    last year

It would take at least a billion dollars to mount a serious campaign against either Trump or Biden beyind this point, is why.

The graphic shows indies have the power.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
4.1.4  TᵢG  replied to  JBB @4.1.3    last year

The independent vote is why I am confident Trump cannot win in a general election.

It is up to the parties to provide quality nominees.   They continue to fail (worse each year) IMO.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
4.1.5  JohnRussell  replied to  TᵢG @4.1.4    last year

We shouldnt even have to put up with seeing him on tv every day for the next year and a half.  It is absurd. 

 
 
 
Gsquared
Professor Principal
4.1.6  Gsquared  replied to  TᵢG @4.1.4    last year
It is up to the parties to provide quality nominees. 

The parties do not select or "provide" the nominees.  Individuals put themselves forward as candidates and voters decide who the nominees will be during the caucuses and primaries.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
4.1.7  TᵢG  replied to  Gsquared @4.1.6    last year

The party includes the voters.

Also, the party (as an organization) has tremendous influence over who will be a viable candidate.

 
 
 
bccrane
Freshman Silent
4.1.8  bccrane  replied to  TᵢG @4.1    last year
GOP:   Ensure Trump is NOT the nominee D:   Ensure Biden / Harris is NOT the nominee

You forgot one, D:  Ensure Trump IS the nominee

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
4.1.9  Texan1211  replied to  bccrane @4.1.8    last year
You forgot one, D:  Ensure Trump IS the nominee

Looks like why the leftists try so damn hard at keeping Trump relevant while claiming people ignoring Trump are doing so.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
4.1.10  TᵢG  replied to  bccrane @4.1.8    last year

Yes, the Ds no doubt want Trump to be the nominee.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
4.1.11  TᵢG  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.9    last year

Why is Trump the leading candidate for the GOP nomination?

It sure as hell is NOT because GOP members are ignoring him.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
4.1.12  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @4.1.10    last year

[Deleted]

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
4.1.13  Texan1211  replied to  TᵢG @4.1.11    last year

Why are you asking me when you won't accept any answer?

Just tell me what you 'know' I would say and save us both time.

 
 
 
Thrawn 31
Professor Guide
4.1.15  Thrawn 31  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.9    last year
Dems are rooting for Trump no doubt, because he is a constant loser. 

 
 
 
evilone
Professor Guide
4.2  evilone  replied to  Snuffy @4    last year
And he has to run on his record which IMO is abysmal.

Biden's record isn't abysmal. It's largely a nothing. Congress couldn't stuff his crap through and a lot of the other stuff of any consequences ended up in court. 

Many people including Democrats do not want him to run again citing his age, remember that a vote for Biden is really a vote for President Harris.

At this point I'm certain either party could run a ham sandwich in the general and the party fall in line because "they" think it's better than the other side.

When 70% of the voting public wants nationwide abortion they really need to listen. 

Yes! 

They are piss-poor at reaching out to the younger voters who have grown up in a digital age.

In many cases the GOP are actively discouraging youngers voters from getting to the polls.

Republicans can no longer count on the AARP vote.

I think it's still favors the Republicans, but it's not the lock it used to be, especially with women voters.

Republicans need to work to insure more moderate candidates make it to the general, they cannot allow the extremists to win the primaries.

I'm seeing signs of populism weakening but it may take another cycle or two to get there. 

...we really need better candidates. 

Most certainly!

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
4.2.1  devangelical  replied to  evilone @4.2    last year
I'm seeing signs of populism weakening but it may take another cycle or two to get there.

I blame medicare...

 
 
 
Nerm_L
Professor Expert
5  Nerm_L    last year

There's no guarantee the Trump will be Republicans nominee.  And there's no guarantee that Biden will be Democrats' nominee.  So, let's rig the primaries to ensure they are.  Then we'll gaslight the voting public that the election ain't rigged.

The thing is Democrats may well be headed for a platform fight.  The far left factions in the Democratic Party have gained a foothold and they're demanding some rather extreme commitments from the party.  Some Democrats are going to be thrown under the bus and there's going to be fight over which Democrats get that honor.  If Biden is challenged during the primaries then Biden will try to start a fight among the Democrat factions and then stand back and scold everybody.  And there's no telling what Biden will give away.  Biden really would divide the Democratic Party and appeal to Republican leaning independents to win the nomination, too.  Democrats can't trust Biden to lead the Democratic Party.  And the liberal factions within the party have been forcing the establishment to step aside.  Old guard Democrats can't browbeat and guilt trip Democrats into some sort of phony unity any longer.

On the other hand, Republicans desperately need a platform fight.  Republicans have been trying to straddle the fence since the TEA Party gained ground within the party.  Big bank, free trade Reagan neoliberals don't have the numbers or the power to hold off grass root Republican factions any longer.  The old guard Republican establishment made a lot of promises in the party platform and then ignored those promises.  The grass roots is demanding a changing of the guard and expects results.  But that is going to require a party platform.  Trump may be good at fighting the establishment but Trump is not a policy wonk.  Trump won't contribute anything meaningful to creating a party platform that addresses grass root expectations.  And avoiding a platform fight, as the Republican Party has done the last three Presidential elections, will only make the grass roots angrier and more determined to change the party.  If Trump can't change the Republican Party then the grass roots will search for someone who will.  And the next grass roots champion won't be as moderate as Trump.

So, the 2024 primaries are beginning to look like Democrats fighting Democrats and Republicans fighting Republicans.  All these claims that Trump and Biden will be the nominees are intended to downplay the primaries.  The primaries could quickly turn into a cage match fight within each party.  The effort now is to rig the primaries to avoid the fight and rig the election to foist a phony unity onto the voting public.  To hell with democracy.  Both parties are destroying themselves for different reasons.  Gaslighting the voting public won't hide what's happening within each party for very long.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
6  Mark in Wyoming     last year

I still have to wait until AFTER the 24 election to see if the prediction i made back in 16 is good .

 And that was the country had not had a series of 1 term presidents for a while  and we were over due .

 and what i meant by a series is more than 1 in a row , so 2 in a row or more .

 way things are , i think the odds of that prediction holding good is better than the seeded articles .

 anything can happen between now and nov 24.

 
 
 
Hallux
Professor Principal
7  seeder  Hallux    last year

The daily anti-Trump seeds = the daily anti-Biden seeds. Grow a pair of something and season your wok with them f.f.s.!

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
8  devangelical    last year

[Deleted]

 
 

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