The Coming Biden Blowout
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The Republican plan for 2024 is already failing, and the party leadership can see it and knows it.
There was no secret to a more intelligent and intentional Republican plan for 2024. It would have gone like this:
(1) Replace Donald Trump at the head of the ticket with somebody less obnoxious and impulsive.
(2) Capitalize on inflation and other economic troubles.
(3) Offer plausible ideas on drugs, crime, and border enforcement.
(4) Reassure women worried about the post- Roe future.
(5) Don’t be too obvious about suppressing Democratic votes, because really blatant voter suppression will provoke and mobilize Democrats to vote, not discourage them.
Unfortunately for them, Republicans have turned every element of the plan upside down and inside out. Despite lavish anti-Trump donations by big-money Republicans, Trump is cruising to easy renomination. Rather than capitalize on existing economic troubles, Republicans have started a debt-ceiling fight that will cast them as the cause of America’s economic troubles. Worse for them, the troubles are fast receding. Inflation is vexing, but the recession that Republicans hoped for did not materialize: Instead, Joe Biden has presided over the fastest and steepest unemployment reduction in U.S. economic history.
The big new Republican idea to halt the flow of drugs is to bomb or invade Mexico. Instead of reassuring women, Republican state legislators and Republican judges are signaling that they will support a national abortion ban if their party wins in 2024—and are already building the apparatus of surveillance and control necessary to make such a ban effective. Republican state-level voter-suppression schemes have been noisy and alarming when the GOP plan called for them to be subtle and technical.
It’s early in the election cycle, of course, but not too early to wonder: Are we watching a Republican electoral disaster in the making?
Biden’s poll numbers are only so-so. But a presidential election offers a stark and binary choice: This or that? Biden may fall short of some voters’ imagined ideal of a president, but in 2024, voters won’t be comparing the Democrat with that ideal. They will be comparing him with the Republican alternative.
An American must be at least 36 years old to have participated in an election in which the Republican candidate for president won the most votes. An American must be at least 52 years old to have participated in two presidential elections in which the Republican nominee got the most votes.
Despite this, over the past 30 years, the GOP has succeeded in leveraging its smaller share of the vote into a larger share of national power. That same 36-year-old American has lived half of his or her adult life under a Republican-controlled Senate, and even more of it under a Republican-majority House of Representatives. Through almost all of that American’s adult life, Republicans have held more than half of all state legislatures. Conservative dominance of the federal courts has become ever more total in the past two decades, culminating in the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade .
Some of the Republicans’ leverage can be explained by the American electoral system’s tilt against metropolitan areas. Some of their success is due to luck. The GOP’s big year of 2010 also happened to be a redistricting year, so one successful election translated into a decade of more comprehensively gerrymandered state legislatures. (Democrats have not had a big win in a redistricting year since 1930.)
But the tilt is not infinite, and the party’s luck is running out. Republicans have suffered a series of heavy defeats since the rise of Trump: loss of the House in 2018, loss of the presidency in 2020, loss of the Senate in 2021, losses at the state level in 2022 (Democrats won net two governorships and net four legislative chambers).
Trump-era Republicans have difficulty absorbing and reacting to negative news. Led by Trump himself, they misrepresented 2016 as— in the words of his former adviser Kellyanne Conway—a blowout, historic landslide. They misrepresented 2020 as an election that they deservedly won, but that was stolen from them by fraud and chicanery. Out-of-office Republicans like Paul Ryan will acknowledge on CNN that Trump lost. But they won’t say it on Fox News. Trump’s own leading party rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, won’t say it . And if Trump is indeed the primary winner that he insists he is, what on Earth is the case for denying this political superstar the third nomination he wants?
The Democrats, by contrast, are a party that has trouble absorbing and reacting to good news. Few Democrats predicted that the party would do as well as it did in 2022. Most feel deep dread and anxiety about 2024.
Maybe it’s good to guard against complacency. The American electoral system’s tilt against Democratic-voting regions remains as pronounced as ever. The Senate map is especially unpromising for Democrats. Yet it’s also important to understand that although America is intensely and bitterly polarized, it is not evenly polarized.
The potential strength of the Democratic coalition is greater than that of the Trump coalition. The Democratic disadvantage is that their coalition spans a lot of groups that face extra difficulties casting a ballot: renters, college students, hourly workers, single parents, people who don’t own cars. The American voting system has been engineered to deter and discourage them.
If motivated to turn out, however, those deterred and discouraged blocs can swing elections. In 2018, 36 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds turned out, the highest level recorded. Their votes helped change control of the House. Turnout of this cohort in 2022 finished second only to what it had been in 2018, and those votes altered the political complexion of many state legislatures. The state that had the highest youth turnout in 2022 was Michigan—not so coincidentally, the state where Democrats scored some of their biggest gains, flipping both chambers of the state legislature from red to blue.
Chief among what motivates voters who face obstacles is hope. People will endure and overcome barriers when they feel that their vote can make a difference. If Democrats succeed in communicating hope in 2024 that young people can contribute to a decisive defeat of Trump and MAGA extremism, then that is what they will do.
This cycle, that hope is well founded. Republicans are doing everything wrong. They are talking to their voters about Trump’s personal grievances and about boutique culture-war issues that their own base does not much care about, such as the state of Florida’s “ war on Disney .” At the same time, Republican leaders are confronting Democratic voters with extremist threats on issues they care intensely about: bans on abortion medication by mail, restrictions on the freedom of young women to travel across state lines, attacks on student voting rights , proposed big cuts to Medicaid and food stamps in the GOP debt-ceiling ransom demand. Republicans offer no economic message and no affirming vision, even as they make new moves to police women’s bodies and start a land war in Mexico. They are well on their way to earning a deep, nasty defeat—and the smell of that defeat may be an additional draw to the polls for the Democratic-leaning constituencies that will inflict it.
Of all the major-party candidates to run for president since 2000, only one scored worse than Trump in the popular vote: John McCain in 2008. That was not a personal verdict on McCain. He was running for a third Republican term in the throes of the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression and against the backdrop of the most grinding military frustration since Vietnam.
Biden’s reelection-announcement video , released yesterday, defines the principal issue at stake in 2024 as “freedom.” From the New Deal to Trump, “freedom” was a Republican slogan; “security” was its Democratic counterpart. But Trump, together with DeSantis, has completely rebranded the GOP as the party of bossing around women, minorities, and young people.
If Trump secures the GOP nomination to run for a second term in 2024, the conditions are all in place to transfer the title of “worst popular-vote loser of the century” from the great Arizona senator to the putsch-plotting ex-president. Trump’s own party is doing its part to deliver this debacle. Soon enough, all Americans will have the opportunity to do theirs.
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What with DeSantis tilting at cultural windmills, Nikki Haley running around trying to please everyone without pleasing anyone and the craziness of the MAGA crowd either in or out of office, David Frum might be correct in this early prediction.
anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ, anti-gun legislation, voter suppression...
maga shit is going to the sewage treatment plant in '24.
good riddance to unamerican scum.
Biden has a 37% approval rating and Republicans lead on the Generic Ballot for Congress after winning 51% of the House votes in 2022.
Predicting a Biden blowout is just wishcasting.
As was predicting a 2020 big red wave.
heh, a red wave flowing into the federal prison system...
If we elect Donald Trump, a known traitor, this country will never live it down. (Certainly not with the lifetimes of anyone who can read this). I really dont understand what people like you dont get about that.
Donald Trump approved of a plan to overturn the election , a plan that a federal judge said was likely a federal crime. Is that a joke to you?
I really dont understand what people like you dont get about that.
All I did was point out the truth that is obvious to anyone who can read a poll.
The reality is Biden is a rapidly deteriorating 80 year old compulsive liar/grifter propped up only by a partisan media who does everything they can to protect him, including spoon-feeding him "questions". His party, when not telling people that the biological realty of being a woman is just a state of mind, is obsessed with dividing the country by race and trying to overthrow the goal of of equal opportunity for all and replace it with government enforced equality of results based on race.
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So yeah, despite Trump being a world class asshole, the alternative is worse, because its premised on systematic damage to the country. Better a normally functioning government doing normal things led by a egomaniacal buffoon than a government of reality denying racialists intent on fundamentally transforming America into some some sort of Orwellian nightmare.
Hilarious and bizarre. WHILE TRUMP WAS THE GOVERNMENT he plotted to overturn the presidential election WHICH HE HAD LOST.
He is not just an egomaniacal buffoon, he is a traitor.
Beyond that, he has personally spread dozens of conspiracy theories (including his embracing of the insane Q Anon cult).
No one should have to tolerate 5 more minutes of Trump, let alone 5 more years.
Last night he hugged a woman (Q Anon) at his political rally , who earlier in the day told a reporter that Mike Pence should be executed. Trump hugged this nutcase and told her what a wonderful person she was.
You could say Trump didnt know all the details of her beliefs, but he knew she was a Jan 6th convictee, because that is why she was allowed to meet him.
She later compared him to Jesus Christ.
We dont want this shit anymore Sean and we are not going to accept it.
Define "live it down".
Let us know when they charge him.
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If what you already know is not sufficient for you to determine Trump's wrongdoing (i.e. form your own personal opinion), then I would think you would only care after a verdict is rendered. Charging Trump is insignificant compared to convicting him after a trial.
Texan, the evidence of Trump's wrongdoing is over-the-top.
Guilt of a crime is what has not been determined. But surely you see it was wrong for Trump to suborn Pence to table certified election results in an attempt to 'win' the presidency by plurality of the remaining votes. (I can list more obvious wrongdoings.)
So, in summary:
Guilt: Not yet determined
Wrongdoing: Clearly
Tripe? So you do not consider that a list of wrongdoing by Trump??
By advocating a dumb plan that tried to win the election under the rules. He lost and followed the will of Congress, the Courts etc.
Compare that to AOC and other Democrats arguing that Biden should literally ignore Supreme Court rulings.
e has personally spread dozens of conspiracy theories
Lol. The same week we find out the Biden campaign coordinated with media and former Intelligence to lie about his son's laptop being Russians disinformation, you want to complain about spreading conspiracy theories?
, Trump hugged this nutcase and told her what a wonderful person she was.
Yeah, Biden would never visit a child molester who attacked police with a knife.
e dont want this shit anymore Sean and we are not going to accept it.
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IF the Democratic Party is where it was 20 years ago, intent on raising taxes on the rich, protecting unions etc, they'd win 45 states against Trump. But they've gone so far over the edge rational people can't vote for them.
Oh boy...Here we go again..
Most, if not all of us, have given our opinion on if we believe Trump committed "wrongdoing". I, for one , a million times, have said yes, he has.
Obviously, what we have posted is not satisfactory, so......
Exactly how do you want us to word our answers so that you will stop bringing up "wrongdoing"?
You are thus part of the reason Trump remains relevant.
Drama.
I do not recall asking you this question so why do you reply as if I did?
But since you opined, you clearly do not consider my list of wrongdoing tripe. You recognize Trump's wrongdoing but Texan calls the allegations of wrongdoing "tripe".
Sure you do. It is people like you who refuse to recognize Trump's wrongdoing that keeps him relevant.
Get a clue, Texan.
If the GOP did not bend over for Trump he would not be threatening to be your nominee (and thus lose the general for you).
How about something more rational (and not dramatic) like the recognition Trump has engaged in substantial wrongdoing and, because of this, should never be allowed political power — especially the presidency?
No...reality.
"I do not recall"
Your problem, not mine. You have asked many, many, many, many, many....times if I believe Trump did "wrongdoing". You also asked repeatedly what repercussions should he face for such "wrongdoings". That has also been answered many times.
"calls the allegations of wrongdoing "tripe"."
No, what he is saying is you asking the same question over and over again, getting the same answer over and over again, has gotten stale.
Now, I ask again...
Exactly how do you want us to word our answers so that you will stop bringing up "wrongdoing"?
I know. What has confused you about this?
Did I just now ask you? The answer is 'no'. But you replied as if I just now did ask you.
Yes, Trump engaged in wrongdoing.
You have stated this but Texan refuses to do so. That is why my post was to Texan and not to you. See how that works?
Was it wrong for Trump to suborn Pence to table certified votes so that he could 'win' the presidency by plurality?
Don't care. I have the right to opine on any subject/post, just as you do.
"Yes, Trump engaged in wrongdoing."
OK...been there...done that...now what?
"That is why my post was to Texan and not to you"
Again, I have the right to opine on any subject/post. My response was to educate you on the numerous times you have asked this question, and that behavior has gotten stale.
See how that works?
Of course you do. But if you pretend that I asked you a question then I will call you out on it.
No, not a genius. Just able to recognize common sense when common sense is obvious.
Others, apparently, have problems with that.
How can you call a list of Trump's wrongdoings "tripe" if you hold that he did indeed engage in those wrongdoings?
Again...I, like you, have the right to respond to any post/subject, just as you do.
I also have the right to answer any question...no matter if it is directed to me or not.
You don't like it? Maybe a different OPINION site would be more to your liking.
Again....you asking the same question over and over and over....again is the tripe. Not the list itself.
Get a clue
I'm sure pearl clutching comes into play somewhere.
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You pretended that I had just asked you a question when my question was specifically to Texan and then you (dishonestly) whined that I asked you after you have answered "a million" times.
Your pretense is intellectual dishonesty (and low-grade trolling).
What, specifically, is tripe in my post @3.2.7?:
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And, as usual, you offer deflection instead of standing tall and making a clear statement.
Yet Biden is successfully leading the free world against Putin and the Russians, uniting Europe and NATO like never before.
Some of the free world anyhow.
Don't give a shit what you think I "pretended " to do.
I can answer any question to any poster, no matter who asked the [question Deleted]
[Deleted] My 3.2.35 is in response to 3.3.32, not 37. I even said in my post the fact that you ask the same question over and over again, not what is in the question.
Get a clue.
So we should still be in Afghanistan? Could have done that a lot better though
Yerah, hosting the Taliban leaders to a wine and cheese summit at Camp David. \
What exactly is there to liver down?
John said "crime".
As often as John has squawked about Trump being a criminal, he has yet to be charged.
They can't convict him if they don't charge him.
Now... I have a sneaking suspicion that Democrats intend to try and help him win the nomination, and then charge him shortly after that. It's about the only scenario that gets Biden reelected.
If Trump doesnt get charged, is he fit to be president of the United States for four more years?
Last night he hugged, physically hugged, a Q Anon cultist who has called for every congressperson who voted to certify the 2020 election to be executed.
So is he fit to be president of the United States?
Leave Biden out of it.
Well I won't vote for him.
But I realize that doesn't answer your question.
"Fit" is a subjective idea, and everyone will view that differently.
To me, the important issue is the right of the American people to govern themselves. If they choose someone, they have deemed that person to be "fit", whether I share that assessment or not.
The American system of government has proven strong enough to withstand some really incredibly awful people as president. If Trump is elected again, we'll survive him again. Same for Biden.
Trump is charged with 34 felonies in NY...
Yes he did.
My comment was that charging Trump with a crime does not bring very much new information. It gives us a crime to consider, but does not do much to change our base of information regarding Trump's wrongdoing. What could affect our information is a trial (and especially if the verdict is 'guilty').
You have made it clear that you believe a substantial amount of information exists which might counter what appears to be obvious wrongdoing by Trump. That information, should it exist, will come out during a trial.
I also think that the Ds want Trump to be nominated. Regardless of who runs. But if they are scheming as you describe, I would again raise my concern that instead of trying to find a way to get Biden reelected, they should be finding a way to get a solid candidate for PotUS.
Maybe the city that made him can break him.
So you are unwilling to say that someone who embraces a Q Anon nut who wants American congresspeople executed is unfit to lead the country. Got it.
That is how Hitler got power in Germany...
Germans did not believe him dangerous!
Trump has proven he cannot be trusted.
It’s amazing how many people think that Americans don’t know international history, but so many here are experts on 20th German history.
How did you think Hitler came to power?
Well, I'm not a German history export like you but some of the circumstances include:
I think "the list of laws he broke" is significant new information.
Which, I suspect, is a major reason we haven't had one.
I could not agree more.
But I think they have a similar problem to the Republicans. Any actually good candidate is likely to get torpedoed by the lunatic fringe of the party.
I am unwilling to engage in your multi-year campaign of unhinged and spineless batshit hysteria, yes.
More importantly, I am also unwilling to interfere with the right of the American people to govern themselves.
It is new information in that we would now have a legal opinion on potential crimes. That would be welcome information. It is NOT new information in the sense of providing details about Trump's wrongdoing beyond what we know or details that would defend against the apparent wrongdoing.
So, sure, it is technically new information but not valuable in determining the truth. The truth (well, an approximation of it, hopefully) will emerge from a trial.
That seems to imply that you suspect a trial might exonerate Trump. That it would show his Big Lie campaign to be an honest attempt to protect the integrity of the US electoral process (or something like that)? That Trump really did not try to coerce officials to dishonestly misrepresent the voters or suborn Pence to table certified results, or ... or ...? That does not sound like something you would conclude.
I suspect that the lack of progress is based on political calculations. It sickens me, but our system of justice is intertwined with politics.
It is very difficult for a party to not support an incumbent. The political dynamics in support of an incumbent are overpowering. It would take something catastrophic to break that. (This is true for the D and R parties ... wait for the cry of bothsidesism).
Another factor is (sadly) that the good candidates have too much integrity to do what it takes to be a viable political candidate. I think of Condoleezza Rice as an example of someone of admirable qualities and experience who is unwilling to engage in the dishonesty required to win.
Exonerate him in your opinion? No. Exonerate him with regard to criminal actions? Yes.
I believe there a two possible explanations for the lack of charges. Either they do not have confidence that the entire body of evidence will support a conviction or they are waiting for a time window that will be more politically advantageous.
I said it before and I'll say it again. Biden will not have as easy a time of it this time around. He doesn't have Covid so he will have to hit the campaign trail and we all know how he does unscripted. And he has to run on his record which IMO is abysmal. Many people including Democrats do not want him to run again citing his age, remember that a vote for Biden is really a vote for President Harris.
That said, you are correct in that the Republican leadership is doing everything they can do promote a Democrat win. When 70% of the voting public wants nationwide abortion they really need to listen. They are piss-poor at reaching out to the younger voters who have grown up in a digital age. Republicans can no longer count on the AARP vote. Republicans need to work to insure more moderate candidates make it to the general, they cannot allow the extremists to win the primaries.
I doubt that the 24 elections will be a blowout due to the above issues. But we really need better candidates.
I deeply hope Biden will not be a candidate. But if he is, the ease of winning is a function of the GOP nominee. If Trump is the nominee, Biden will very likely win.
GOP: Ensure Trump is NOT the nominee
D: Ensure Biden / Harris is NOT the nominee
As long as Trump looks to be the gop's likely nominee Democrats will support the man proven to be able to whoop him. While most people wish for different candidates we're staring down the barrel of a rematch. In this case Biden must be In it to win it. And, this graphic explains why I am so confident he can and will. IMO he must...
If it comes down to Biden vs. Trump then there is no rational choice other than Biden.
If so, then once again we see candidates worse than any other pair of candidates in history. 2020 was bad enough. Now we have the same candidates 4 years older??
Our system is seriously fucked up. Why is it that people like Tim Walz do not step up to the plate?
It would take at least a billion dollars to mount a serious campaign against either Trump or Biden beyind this point, is why.
The graphic shows indies have the power.
The independent vote is why I am confident Trump cannot win in a general election.
It is up to the parties to provide quality nominees. They continue to fail (worse each year) IMO.
We shouldnt even have to put up with seeing him on tv every day for the next year and a half. It is absurd.
The parties do not select or "provide" the nominees. Individuals put themselves forward as candidates and voters decide who the nominees will be during the caucuses and primaries.
The party includes the voters.
Also, the party (as an organization) has tremendous influence over who will be a viable candidate.
You forgot one, D: Ensure Trump IS the nominee
Yes, the Ds no doubt want Trump to be the nominee.
Why is Trump the leading candidate for the GOP nomination?
It sure as hell is NOT because GOP members are ignoring him.
Biden's record isn't abysmal. It's largely a nothing. Congress couldn't stuff his crap through and a lot of the other stuff of any consequences ended up in court.
At this point I'm certain either party could run a ham sandwich in the general and the party fall in line because "they" think it's better than the other side.
Yes!
In many cases the GOP are actively discouraging youngers voters from getting to the polls.
I think it's still favors the Republicans, but it's not the lock it used to be, especially with women voters.
I'm seeing signs of populism weakening but it may take another cycle or two to get there.
Most certainly!
I blame medicare...
There's no guarantee the Trump will be Republicans nominee. And there's no guarantee that Biden will be Democrats' nominee. So, let's rig the primaries to ensure they are. Then we'll gaslight the voting public that the election ain't rigged.
The thing is Democrats may well be headed for a platform fight. The far left factions in the Democratic Party have gained a foothold and they're demanding some rather extreme commitments from the party. Some Democrats are going to be thrown under the bus and there's going to be fight over which Democrats get that honor. If Biden is challenged during the primaries then Biden will try to start a fight among the Democrat factions and then stand back and scold everybody. And there's no telling what Biden will give away. Biden really would divide the Democratic Party and appeal to Republican leaning independents to win the nomination, too. Democrats can't trust Biden to lead the Democratic Party. And the liberal factions within the party have been forcing the establishment to step aside. Old guard Democrats can't browbeat and guilt trip Democrats into some sort of phony unity any longer.
On the other hand, Republicans desperately need a platform fight. Republicans have been trying to straddle the fence since the TEA Party gained ground within the party. Big bank, free trade Reagan neoliberals don't have the numbers or the power to hold off grass root Republican factions any longer. The old guard Republican establishment made a lot of promises in the party platform and then ignored those promises. The grass roots is demanding a changing of the guard and expects results. But that is going to require a party platform. Trump may be good at fighting the establishment but Trump is not a policy wonk. Trump won't contribute anything meaningful to creating a party platform that addresses grass root expectations. And avoiding a platform fight, as the Republican Party has done the last three Presidential elections, will only make the grass roots angrier and more determined to change the party. If Trump can't change the Republican Party then the grass roots will search for someone who will. And the next grass roots champion won't be as moderate as Trump.
So, the 2024 primaries are beginning to look like Democrats fighting Democrats and Republicans fighting Republicans. All these claims that Trump and Biden will be the nominees are intended to downplay the primaries. The primaries could quickly turn into a cage match fight within each party. The effort now is to rig the primaries to avoid the fight and rig the election to foist a phony unity onto the voting public. To hell with democracy. Both parties are destroying themselves for different reasons. Gaslighting the voting public won't hide what's happening within each party for very long.
I still have to wait until AFTER the 24 election to see if the prediction i made back in 16 is good .
And that was the country had not had a series of 1 term presidents for a while and we were over due .
and what i meant by a series is more than 1 in a row , so 2 in a row or more .
way things are , i think the odds of that prediction holding good is better than the seeded articles .
anything can happen between now and nov 24.
The daily anti-Trump seeds = the daily anti-Biden seeds. Grow a pair of something and season your wok with them f.f.s.!
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