About 8 in 10 Democrats satisfied with Harris as nominee: AP-NORC poll | AP News
....I want a whole lot of lumps
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
A new poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that about 8 in 10 Democrats say they would be very or somewhat satisfied with Kamala Harris as the party's nominee. However, Americans still see a tough contest for president looming
WASHINGTON (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have energized Democrats in the early days of her candidacy, with the surge in warm feelings extending across multiple groups, including some key Democratic constituencies that had been especially tepid about President Joe Biden, a new poll shows.
About 8 in 10 Democrats say they would be somewhat or very satisfied if Harris became the Democratic nominee for president, according to the survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, which was conducted after Biden withdrew from the race.
In a separate AP-NORC poll, taken before Biden dropped out but after his debate against Republican former President Donald Trump, only about 4 in 10 Democrats said they were somewhat or very satisfied that he was the Democratic Party's likely nominee for president.
The rapidly changing views among Democrats in such a short time span underscore how swiftly the party — from rank-and-file voters to elected officials — has coalesced behind Harris as its standard-bearer, motivated by the fresh face at the top of the ticket and newfound confidence in the party's prospects against Trump in November.
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Gary Hines, a Democrat from Philadelphia, said he wasn't particularly impressed by Harris' first presidential bid but now, she's shown "she's up to the task, can do the work, has proven that she's running a strong campaign so far and maybe on a bigger level, she's somebody that can beat Donald Trump." All those factors have ignited an enthusiasm in Hines that wasn't there when Biden was still in the race, he said.
"I really want to go out and maybe knock on doors, which I would've never done," said Hines, 68. "It's jazzed me up quite a bit."
Americans are also more likely to say that Harris would make a good president than they were earlier in July, a shift that was primarily driven by Democrats. They still see a tough contest looming, though: A majority of U.S. adults, 56%, say that if Trump and Harris are their parties' nominees for the general election in November, Trump is more likely to win.
Lauren Schulman, a Democrat from Pompano Beach, Florida, said she admires Biden and what he has accomplished during his presidency. But she said with him at the top of the ticket, "I have just been so terrified that we were going to lose."
With Harris, on the other hand, "she's been a bright, shining star," said Schulman, 66, noting that the vice president is "smart and she's younger, and she even comes off younger than she is. That makes such a huge contrast with Trump."
Growing enthusiasm for Harris — especially compared to Biden
About 7 in 10 Black adults and about half of Hispanic adults would be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee — a marked increase from earlier in July, when about half of Black adults and 15% of Hispanic adults felt satisfied with Biden as the Democrats' expected nominee. (The poll did not include enough Asian adults to analyze their responses separately.)
The share of younger adults (those under the age of 45) who say they would be satisfied with Harris as the nominee, at around 4 in 10, is higher than the 17% who said they were satisfied with Biden in July.
Bryan Seigler, a Democrat from Raleigh, North Carolina, praised Harris' "broad appeal" and pointed to a contrast that Democrats weren't able to make before.
"Donald Trump is the old guy now," said Seigler, 36.
The new poll shows that Harris' overall favorability has risen slightly, from 39% at the beginning of the summer — before the debate — to 46% now. Democrats' opinions of Harris have also shifted in a slightly more positive direction. Eight in 10 Democrats have a positive view of Harris, up slightly from around 7 in 10 in early June.
Harris would be a historic candidate — she would be the first woman to win the presidency, as well as the first Black woman, the first South Asian American, and the first Asian American. Around 4 in 10 Americans say that it would be a good thing for the country to elect either a woman or a person of color to be president. Even more — about 6 in 10 when asked about electing a person of color and about half when asked about electing a woman — say it does not matter.
Majorities of Democrats, however, say it would be good for the country to elect a woman or person of color.
Views of Biden's decision
Most Americans, 54%, say they have heard or read a lot about Biden's decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. About three-quarters of Americans approve of his decision to withdraw as the Democratic nominee for president, including most Democrats and Republicans.
For many Democrats, Biden's catastrophic June 27 debate showed that — even if they were largely satisfied with his accomplishments during his time in office — the incumbent president should not be running for a second term because of concerns about how his age was affecting his public performance or his ability to campaign effectively against Trump.
"When I watched the debate, you could just tell his cognitive ability was hardly there," said Julian Castaneda, a Democrat in Pocatello, Idaho. "He had a hard time forming sentences and a lot of his responses, I couldn't even understand what he was saying. At his age right now, it was appropriate for him to stand aside."
Biden's choice to endorse Harris as the Democratic nominee for president is slightly more divisive, with about half of U.S. adults in support, though Democrats overwhelmingly approve. There are similar levels of support for Biden's decision to serve out the rest of his presidential term.
Withdrawing from the race didn't do much to change Americans' views of Biden overall. About 4 in 10 Americans approve of how Biden is handling his job as president. That number is roughly in line with where it has been for the last two years. Biden's favorability ratings are similar to where they were before he dropped out of the race, with about 4 in 10 adults and about three-quarters of Democrats holding a positive view.
Americans see a tough election contest for Harris
Even as the new Harris campaign has reasons for optimism, the vice president faces an opponent who is better known by the country and who has a reputation for a loyal base of support.
Most Americans perceive Trump as having the advantage going into the November election. A majority of U.S. adults say that if Trump and Harris are the candidates, Trump is more likely to win. About 9 in 10 Republicans say Trump is more likely to become president, while only about 7 in 10 Democrats say that about Harris.
Schulman thinks Harris is more likely to win this fall. Still, she added: "Democrats, we're like a real, nervous, paranoid bunch these days."
___
The poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
___
SEUNG MIN KIM Seung Min is a White House reporter. LINLEY SANDERS Sanders is a polls and surveys reporter for The Associated Press. She develops and writes about polls conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, and works on AP VoteCast.
Eeeuuuuuuuuuwwww! I hates that Rabbit!
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Woosh! And away we go!
... pushing 3 weeks and the trump campaign response is only racism ...
8 in 10? I think the article is padding the number. Closer to 4 out of 5, surely.
Are you making a joke? Both come out to 0.80...
Ratios are funny that way...
The larger the sample size the more accurate the result.
Statistics are funny that way.
Are you sure? I thought it would be 80%?
I realize you are trying to be funny but, seriously, the article also used 7 out of 10. Thus it makes sense to use 10 as a common denominator.
What is the difference between 0.80 and 80%? Nothing.
I am not sure what you are driving at here. 8/10 is the same as 4/5. Always and forever. The same ratio. it just looks different. Multiply any thing by 1 and it stays the same. Divide anything by itself and it equals 1. So if we multiply 8/10 by 2/2 or 5/5 or 0.5/0.5 ... It is all the same number: 80% when stated as a percentage, 0.8 when stated in the raw, and 8/10, 4/5, 40/50ths..... I know you are not innumerate, so why?
Math is hard.
No. Math is simple.
It may take awhile, but still there are only certain things you can do with numbers. I love watching people pull ones out of their ass and having the whole equation fall in line. That is truly priceless.
It is to many victims of a US public education.
I was kidding. I'm pretty comfortable with math, so long as I am sufficiently caffeinated. Converting ratios to percentages is pretty basic stuff.
Clearly.
Yes, it is.
As was I. I think it's funny that I actually have to say so. I was particularly tickled with 1.2.5
Math is taught wrong all over the world. The three or four main types of learners need the requisite number of teaching styles. Teach them all.
When I was in high school I had a math teacher who said there are two ways to do things:My way and the wrong way. It took me years to overcome that stigma.
To be fair, I wasn't sure whether you were kidding, either. I've seen too many people struggle to work out simple problems like figuring out a 20% tip. And then there was Sparty's comment about sample size, which ignores (hopefully in jest, but I'm not sure) the fact that the sample size refers to the number polled, not to how the results of the poll are reported.
where i grind my game meat for sausages of different varieties or even just burger , im just glad for google , i simply ask how much fat i need to add to the grind weight to come out to the percentage i want .
I used baking to teach my son fractions. Halving or multiplying recipes using fractions of cups, teaspoons, etc., is a good way to make the concept less abstract. Or at least, it worked for me when I was learning fractions, so I figured I'd try it. Reward for success is a warm chocolate chip cookie.
And he did learn, but was miffed when he figured out what I was doing
And he did learn, but was miffed when he figured out what I was doing
It was too late then.
Yup. I won that round.
“The U.S. average score of 465 in 2022 was below the OECD average of 472 and lower than 21 of the 36 other participating OECD members. The U.S. also ranked 34th out of 81 countries in math in 2022, while Singapore, a top-performing country in Asia, scored 575. Only 7% of U.S. students scored at the highest levels in math, compared with 23% in Japan and South Korea, and 41% in Singapore.”
and thats the trick , find something they like or want , they usually find the underlying lesson way after the fact and by then , too late as was said ..
Especially fractions....says Mr G
: )
:p
Better numbers because of the nomination bounce, but who knows what will happen next. More important is how much support she has from independents and unhappy Republicans?
first the D convention, and then trump getting sentenced for 34 felonies and 10 counts of contempt...
I agree, even though this poll was completed before she had the nomination. She did have the endorsement of Biden though.
Which is why she has to maintain momentum. Most importantly, IMO, is maintaining control of the conversation around the election.
I expect 2 more numbers bounces , one for when the VP running mate is announced , and one for the clinching of the nomination , clinching the nomination may have already occurred .
it did, earlier today...
I read on Reuters she's going to make the VP announcement tomorrow and she's set between Shapiro and Waltz. I expect a bump there and if the Convention goes well a small bump there. It was weird Trump didn't get a Convention bump.
This works for me.
Still need the grass roots, pavement pounding campaigners, though. Recruitment of volunteers has been very strong
[✘]
Is she my first choice in a perfect world? No, but it’s probably impractical to go with anyone else at this point. She’s a damn sight better than Trump, that’s for sure.
I’d vote for the guy who sleeps outside my local library before I’d vote for Trump. Hell, as a lifelong Dodgers fan, I’d vote for a San Francisco Giant before I’d vote for Trump. I’d vote for Covid before I voted for Trump.
I know exactly how you feel.
Oh my. Now, that is an interesting thought to ponder. . . I. . . guess I would too(?)
Or a cat. Any cat.
May I present Charlene?
I’d totally vote for her.
She only wants snackos every 30 minutes
Ways to formulate a victory: Point at Trump and Cackle!
Sorry, I crack myself up some times..
And then I read it
They kind of have no choice but to be satisfied.
No one better dares jump into this democratic shit show and they know there is no one worse, so they have to keep what was forced on them.
you're going to be a barrel of laughs on 11/6...
????
Oh! you're being sarcastic!
greased lightning you are...
So that means 20% dissatisfied with Harris as the pick, that's a chunk of voters to lose to 3rd party candidates.
Could be worse...
"A small but substantial chunk of Republican primary and caucus voters say they would be so dissatisfied if Donald Trump became the party’s presidential nominee that they would not vote for him in November’s general election, according to AP VoteCast.
An analysis of the data shows that many of those voters were unlikely to vote for Trump. According to AP VoteCast surveys of the first three head-to-head Republican contests, 2 in 10 Iowa voters, one-third of New Hampshire voters, and one-quarter of South Carolina voters would be so disappointed by Trump’s renomination that they would refuse to vote for him in the fall."
Why some Republicans won’t vote for Trump if he’s nominated | AP News
"O ne in three Republican voters say they would have preferred a different candidate to Donald Trump for the upcoming presidential election."
One in Three Republicans Now Think Donald Trump Was Wrong Candidate Choice - Newsweek
The fact is, even with 20% being "dissatisfied" with the Harris pick, that doesn't necessarily mean they're not going to vote for her anyway. Most Democrats realize that voting for a 3rd party candidate in this political climate is just throwing your vote away, or worse, helping a monumental turd like Trump possibly back into office.