Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 7 points in new poll
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
by Miranda Nazzaro - 08/25/24 8:27 AM
Vice President Harris holds a 7-point edge over former President Trump nationally in a new poll, marking the latest gain for the Democratic presidential candidate as the general election approaches.
A survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University, released last Friday, found Harris leading Trump with 50 percent support to 43 percent nationally, while 7 percent of respondents said they will vote for someone else. Trump and Harris fare equally well with voters from their party, each having 95 percent support from their partisans, pollsters found.
Pollsters noted race or gender played a large role in pushing Harris's lead. When voters are asked to think about race or gender, Harris's lead grows significantly, while support for her and Trump are virtually tied when they are not made to think about it, they said.
With independents who do not lean toward either party, Harris still leads Trump, but by a smaller margin, 38 to 33 percent, the poll found. Harris holds a large lead among self-identified liberals, 87 to 10 percent, along with progressives, 93 to 5 percent, and moderates, 62 to 30 percent.
The former president, meanwhile, leads among conservatives 76 to 19 percent, and MAGA voters, 95 to 4 percent.
Trump saw his strongest support among men "who hold traditionally masculine identities," while women and other men who reject these identities favor Harris, according to pollsters.
"Trump has built his political career around a very specific performance of whiteness and masculinity," Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson and the executive director of the poll, said in a release. "In the past, that's been seen as a strength, but it's no longer clear that it's working."
"Race matters in elections, but it's not inevitable that voters are thinking about it," he added. "Trump does reasonably well among nonwhite voters so long as they're not thinking about race: Once they are, we see a huge shift to Harris."
Since replacing President Biden atop the Democratic presidential ticket last month, Harris has quickly gained momentum, posing a threat to the healthy lead Trump held over the president, both nationally and in swing states.
This is the latest poll suggesting good news for Harris, though some political strategists have suggested it is too early to make conclusions about the November election.
According to a polling index by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Harris has a 3.6 percentage point lead over Trump.
Trump dismissed the notion Harris has made gains in the polls last week.
When asked last Thursday by Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum about Harris's increasing support in the polls, Trump said, "No, she's not having success. I'm having success. I'm doing great with the Hispanic voters. I'm doing great with Black men. I'm doing great with women, because women want safety."
The survey was conducted Aug. 17-20 using a voter list of 801 registered voters nationwide. It was carried out by Braun Research and has a simple sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval.
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They're having a meltdown. A big MAGA meltdown. There's no denying Trump will be crying. They're having a meltdown! A meltdown!
Polls are SO easily manipulated I really don't understand why anyone pays attention to them. Is there a poll that can actually be considered honest or reliable?
I like the composite polls. They give us an indication of the current temperature and in that regard they are valuable. The honesty, if you will, comes from the consolidation of various polls.
But polls only measure, they are not predictive.
Many of the people who analyze them (mostly newscasters) try to make predictions based on current data-- but they're usually not all that sucessful.
There is a trend that the Dems are slowly improving, but IMO its too early to make any accurate predictions.
polls are becoming increasingly useless because of reluctance in participation by people younger than us...
I remember years ago the poll that was considered the most reliable was the Famous "Harris Presidential Poll".
Once there was a period when I didn't have a job, so an actor friend suggested I work there. I did for a while-- I really enjoyed it!
But political polls are mainly dones evenings-- whenhopefully the working adults were at home. And I wanted to only work days.
Fortunately (at lesst in those days Harris was a major organization, so they did (non-political) polling of Busineses during the day.
I spent every day there calling businesses and asked them if they were willing to do a survey. (Harris had a large survey going-- their client was AT&T-- we were asking questions about how they liked "Merlin" (an AT&T phone centerfor big businesses).
I just googled it-- I was surprised to see a lot of info on Wikiedia about "Merlin"!
(But as I remember, the npoll the harris organization did that they were famous for is "The harris Presidential Poll"
Maybe Pew is one of the most reliable.
The momentum should continue.
However, this election could easily turn. We are still so divided politically that it takes a tiny minority of the electorate to affect the dials.
So Harris-Walz need to do what they are doing ... keep driving a hard campaign, keep energizing the ground forces, take nothing for granted, and stick with the positive, youthful, energetic optics. (And be careful to keep promises practical.)
It's funny watching people crow over national polling in a presidential race. Does it matter if 25 million in California vote for Harris vs if 35 million in California vote for Harris? The EC votes for California are very likely going to Harris regardless. The race will be won by the voting in a handful of states and state level polling shows a very tight race. Have your popcorn and Pepto ready for November.
MAGA would finagle a path to the Presidency for Trump losing by over ten million votes!
Because that is the best they could pray for.
Maybe someday you'll accept that the popular vote doesn't mean a damn thing in the presidential race, it's the Electoral College vote that matters. That's why I said what I did up there. It doesn't matter if Trump loses the popular vote by 50 million votes IF all those votes come from California and New York.[✘]
If it was anything like the one I took back in High School-- perhaps he shouldn't have taken it!
I would be shocked if JBB was not aware of how our electoral system works. Indeed I would be surprised if anyone on this forum thought that the president was elected based on the popular vote.
Do you seriously think JBB is unaware of how the Electoral College works? Especially since he wrote this:
That's true for the presidential race and the Senate races.
But for the U.S. House a bigger turnout (and bigger presidential vote) can affect the House.
And most (all?) states have votes for the state legislature.
I don't know if that's true. Voting for the House is very gerrymandered so the results for most races is already baked in. There are some races which is why we see the majority in the House switch from time to time, but due to gerrymandering it's not a huge difference in numbers any more. The Senate races as well as the presidential race is winner take the state.
But all I was trying to point out was that the popular vote is mostly meaningless in the presidential race. As California will most likely vote for the Democrat candidate, it really makes little difference if the D candidate wins the state by 25 million or 30 million as they still only get the EC votes designated for California.
Not all states are gerymandered to the same degree. (I haven't checked, but I would guess that a few may actually have fair boundaries.
And in close races, one of the things that makes a difference is turnout. If there's an unusually large margin for the top of the ticket, more voters might turn the districts that aren't heavily gerrymandered.
And there'sa "new" factor that musn't be disregarded-- several states have Abortion on the ballot. That's an issue of major importance for many voters.(Aside from the actual votes on that, one effect it will have is to turn out voters that might not even usually vote in elections.
And once there voting-- they may vote on various candidates.
No, not all states but a lot of them are.
In light of the new polling , Trump's spiritual adviser prays for
Always found it strange that anyone buys the nonsense from these emotional, talking in tongues charlatans.
thumpers and maga morons do seem to be the 2 resources in abundance in the US ...
I hear the sound of a brain dead idiot.
Trump helping his spiritual adviser into her chair.
Yeah, right.
What's that whackjobs' name? She's married to one of the members of the band Journey
lucky for her it wasn't a stool...
he's eyeballing her ass
It's baked into our genes.
he was having a religious vision...
for a moment there, she looked a bit confused about whether to sit down or bend over the table...
Trump was hoping.
the secret service probably drove her home, like they do melania...
I'd forgotten about that whackjob crazy bitch.
I wish I could find and post the viral video that has a cat - that kind of looks like devangelicals' avatar - bopping to music during that crazy bitch episode
She keeps mentioning that Angels are coming now...
I don't know about anyone else, but I were an Angel I wouldn't be going there...in fact I fly away in the other direction.. as fast as my cute little Angel wings would let me!
Crazy woman!
Its people like that that give us Angel-folk a bad name!
On the first of June, the election was Trump's to lose and since then that is exactly what he has done.
He has made bad choice after bad choice - continues to debase character rather than debate policies
It would take some major disaster in the Harris campaign to give Trump a chance in November
"MAGA Fatigue" is real. Voters are Post-Trump!
Aparently his advisors have been urging him to stop the nasty personal attacks and to instead discuss the issues. But he has very little self control.
trump has no self control...