Trump effect leaves Canada’s Conservatives facing catastrophic loss

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T

W hen the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, finally emerged from a holding room, excited shouts erupted in a tsunami-like wave throughout the banquet hall. Party faithful – some in the ill-fitting free T-shirts handed out by staffers – craned their necks for a glimpse of the man they hoped will be the next Canadian prime minister.

Hair perfectly parted and clad in his standard-issue crisp blue suit, Poilievre embraced the first supporter, a gesture that appeared to leave her overjoyed. Another supporter, wearing a red “Save Canada” shirt, was crestfallen when Poilievre seemed to miss him, before the leader turned and gripped the man’s hand in a firm shake.

The excitement at the rally earlier this month came with an intensity that party strategists could normally only dream of. Poilievre’s populist messaging has inspired a fervent response from his supporters, who say he has given a voice to those who feel ignored and mocked by political elites. And it appeared to have found a broader audience too: as recently as February, Poilievre enjoyed a 25-point lead over the governing Liberals.   Pollsters estimated   he and his party were on track for an unprecedented victory.

But with less than two weeks before Canada’s federal election, one of the sharpest polling shifts in the country’s political history now has the Conservatives trailing well behind the Liberal party. The abrupt change in the country’s political mood – largely the result of Donald Trump’s tariffs and threats to annex Canada – has prompted infighting within the Conservatives party as it faces what is likely to be a catastrophic loss.

As Poilievre and his Liberal opponent   Mark Carney   prepare for the campaign’s only two debates on Wednesday and Thursday, the Conservatives have pinned their remaining hopes on a last-minute reversal of fortune.

Poilievre’s confrontational style, his attack on “woke” politics and his laser focus on the cost-of-living crisis has earned the career politician a cadre of devoted fans and fuelled a meteoric rise within the Conservative party.   A viral 2023 clip of Poilievre   chastising a reporter while casually munching on an apple received   praise from Republicans in the United States   and captured both his growing disdain for the media and his teeth-bared style of confrontation.

At the recent rally in the city of Brampton, Aris Symeonides, a history teacher, was attending his first federal campaign event in order to witness the brash populist in action.

“Poilievre’s vision of building a stronger and more independent nation is really attractive.   Mark Carney   is just a technocrat and a devout environmentalist [who] will sacrifice our industry on the altar of that movement. You cannot take a modern economy and pretend that oil and energy don’t matter any more,” he said. “But what I like most is that Poilievre is an attack dog. He’ll really go hard after his opponent.”

Poilievre has honed a reputation as   a pugnacious fighter   on the campaign trail and in parliament. His relentless attacks on Justin Trudeau helped crater the former prime minister’s popularity, leading to his decision to resign in early January.

But polls suggest that the persona that won Poilievre legions of adoring fans is hurting him among the broader electorate.

Poilievre enjoys strong support among young men, but in   repeated surveys , the Tory leader was viewed poorly among female voters and is the most disliked party leader among all voters. Fears of a possible Conservative victory have also prompted leftwing New Democratic voters to flee the party in favour of Carney, putting the socially progressive party on track for its worst ever electoral result.

Over the weekend, Poilievre worked to soften criticisms that his belligerent personality is too jarring to voters, appeared on the popular French-language show Tout le Monde en Parle in Montreal.

“I was the leader of the opposition. Now I’m preparing to become prime minister,” he told the hosts. “It’s the time to present hope.”

Poilievre rejected comparisons to the divisive US president when he was asked if he was a “mini-Trump, medium Trump or large Trump” – a frequent line of attack by political rivals.

Conservative strategist Jamie Ellerton said that the Conservative would need to show empathy for ordinary voters in his debate appearances. “For Pierre to close the deal and get the results the Conservative party want in this election he needs to speak to the anxieties that Canadians are facing.”

But Poilievre’s decision to focus his attacks on Trudeau and then Carney – instead of Trump – has prompted questions over whether the strategy will translate to an electoral win.

“Attacking Mark Carney feels like politics as usual. That’s not going to be rewarded in a debate where people are looking for reassurance that the country is going to be OK,” said Ellerton.

Behind the scenes, the Conservatives’ loss of one of the largest polling leads in generations has already prompted a fierce round of recriminations.

“Blowing a 25-point lead and being, like, 10 points down is fucking campaign malpractice at the highest fucking level. And I’m sorry to have to point that out, Conservatives, but that is the actual reality,” said Kory Teneycke, a campaign manager for Ontario’s Progressive Conservative party, in a recent podcast appearance.

Teneycke, who oversaw three conservative victories in 2018, 2022 and 2025 – all of which resulted in majority provincial governments – continued: “This campaign is going to be studied for decades as the biggest fucking disaster in terms of having lost a massive lead in ways that were so obvious, with so much information.”

Teneycke is a polarizing figure on the right, but earlier this week, his outburst won the support of Ontario’s powerful Conservative premier, Doug Ford.

“He’s the best campaign manager in the country. And to be very frank, if Kory was running that campaign, I don’t think Mr Poilievre would be in the position he’s in right now,” Ford told reporters. “At the end of the day, the people will decide which way we want this country to move forward – but sometimes the truth hurts.”

The Conservative party did not respond to a request for comment.

But the campaign, which has attempted to distance its leader from the US president, has also been on the defensive over the Trumpish language of some of its supporters. At the Brampton rally, several attenders wore white sweatshirts emblazoned with the words “Do You Believe the Polls?”

“The polls are swinging so dramatically, they don’t seem like they’re well put together,” said one of them, Paul Micucci, adding that he believed Poilievre was actually ahead by at least eight points. Prominent supporters have started   using the phrase “too big to rig”   when describing the size of the rallies.

Liberal activists have been caught trying capitalize on the infighting,   distributing buttons at a recent conservative conference   with the slogan “Stop the Steal”, in an apparent attempt to create the appearance of Maga-like messaging.

Despite being on the wrong end of the quickest and most dramatic polling shift in Canadian history, Conservatives still have hope the race can be salvaged.

“At this point, it would take something truly extraordinary … to change direction at this point,” said Ellerton. “But two weeks is also a lifetime in politics. At the end of the day it’s math. The Liberal number needs to come down if Conservatives are going to win. You can spend all your time talking about polls, or you can do something about it and get campaigning.”