2024 GOP Primary Election Tracker - Trump Leads DeSantis By 13%
By: Eli Yokley Responses (Morning Consult)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Tracking the 2024 Republican Primary: Trump Leads Potential Rivals Updated: Jan. 10, 2023 | By Eli Yokley Responses shown among potential GOP primary voters, who were asked whom they would vote for if the 2024 Republican primary or caucus were held in their state today. Survey conducted Jan. 6-8, 2023, among 4,470 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
Former President Donald Trump began his presidential campaign with the bulk of the Republican electorate behind him, but with several other potential contenders considering their own push for the nomination, his grip is being put to the test ahead of the 2024 nominating contests. Morning Consult surveys are tracking the Republican primary electorate's views of Trump and his potential rivals, as well as how he fares with the wider electorate — a key metric for a party looking to turn the tide on recent electoral disappointments.
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Key Takeaways
Trump's Maintains Steady Lead : Just over a year out from the Republican Party's first presidential nominating contest, Trump remains the front-runner in a hypothetical crowded field, backed by 46% of potential Republican primary voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is expected to launch a campaign later this year, is backed by 33% of the potential GOP electorate.
No. 45's Buzz Is Improving, but His Favorability Is Not : Potential Republican primary voters have been increasingly likely over the past month to say they've heard something positive about Trump, though more still say the opposite. However, Trump continues to see his favorability rating among the GOP base worsen as Republican voters warm to DeSantis.
McCarthy's Feeling Some Base Heat : Beyond the shadow 2024 contest, the latest survey also found that the House leadership contest has been a drag on the popularity of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who leaned on his Trump endorsement to get across the finish line. Among the potential 2024 primary electorate, the share with negative opinions about the California Republican increased from 32% to 38% over the past week — blowback that is yet to show repercussions for the broader set of Republicans in Congress .
Tracking Republicans' 2024 Primary Support Over Time
Share of potential GOP primary voters who would support the following if the 2024 Republican primary were held today:
Data points reflect three-day moving averages of representative samples of at least 2,476 potential Republican primary voters, with unweighted margins of error of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.
- Since Morning Consult's daily tracking of the so-called invisible primary began in December, the share of potential 2024 Republican primary voters supporting Trump's bid has dropped from 50% to 46%, while the share backing DeSantis has increased from 30% to 33%.
- No other potential candidates have seen any real movement for the past month. Former Vice President Mike Pence is backed by 9% of potential primary voters, while figures such as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are receiving meager support.
Second Choices: Where GOP Primary Voters Could Migrate
After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about whom they would choose as a second option; the results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates or potential candidates could go next
Survey conducted Jan. 6-8, 2023, among 4,470 potential Republican primary voters, with unweighted margins of error of +/-2 to 5 percentage points for responses shown.
- DeSantis is the second choice of 44% of potential GOP primary voters who are backing Trump, compared with 35% of the Florida governor's supporters who view Trump as their top backup option.
- Pence is the second choice of 15% of DeSantis supporters and 20% of Trump backers in a Republican primary. Those who would vote for Pence if the primary were today are most split between DeSantis andTrump as backup options.
How Trump and DeSantis Perform Against Biden in Hypothetical Matchup Latest survey conducted Jan. 6-8, 2023, among more than 7,500 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point.
- A hypothetical head-to-head matchup shows Biden performs slightly better against Trump than DeSantis should the current president stay true to the White House's signaling that he will launch a re-election bid this year.
- With just under two years until Election Day, this metric may be best considered as a test of electability — a key issue in party primaries that carries all the more significance this time around given concerns about Trump's baggage.
Tracking the Popularity of Potential 2024 Primary Candidates Latest survey conducted Jan. 5-8, 2023, among 785 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4%. Net favorability is the share of potential Republican primary voters with favorable views of a candidate or potential candidate minus the share with unfavorable views.
- Three in 4 potential Republican primary voters (73%) hold favorable views of Trump, while 26% view him negatively.
- When it comes to net favorability, which accounts for those unfavorable opinions, survey tracking shows Trump (47 points) has become less and less popular than DeSantis (61 points), following a recent boost in positive sentiment about the Florida governor and a decline for the former president.
The Buzz About the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Latest survey conducted Jan. 5-8, 2023, among 785 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4%. Net buzz is the share of potential Republican primary voters who heard something positive over the previous week about each candidate or potential candidate minus the share who heard something negative.
- While the GOP's potential electorate is more likely to have recently heard something negative (36%) than positive (34%) about Trump, that margin has been improving in recent weeks as net buzz about DeSantis has declined a bit.
- During that time frame, more than 3 in 4 potential Republican primary voters heard nothing at all about most other Republicans in the 2024 mix, including South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.
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73% of Republican primary voters say they have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump.
Obviously we have a seriously dysfunctional country in the political realm.
If the gop is going to nominate Trump then the Democrats have no other choice than to choose the man who has proven he can whoop Trump!
Biden be like, "Please Please Please do not go and nominate Trump again Brer Republicans"...
I personally think Gavin Newsom would easily beat Desantis, quite badly!
This is only one poll so it is difficult to judge the entire country's potential voting on just that. I can honestly say I will never vote for Trump or Biden in 2024. I will however serious consider voting for DeSantis.
The poll suggests to me that there still are waaaaaaaaay too many people supporting Trump. This should worry the GoP since Trump is bad news if he is nominated and bad news if he pouts and runs third party.
Trump continues to inflict damage on our nation.
That is the GOP's biggest problem by far. Donald Trump still has way too much support from their primary voters, which means he can and will tank them either way in 2024.
Agreed.
What continues to amaze me is that so many Rs do not seem to understand that. And I am not referring to Ed.
I'm not an R so no problem.
The far too early full of shit poll.
Those candidates that will announce can still wait several more months. The poll will change drastically if DeSantis announces; and other candidates do not. Take all of those listed below DeSantis and add their numbers to his. It then comes out to a virtual tie between Trump and DeSantis.
Guess this is a desperation poll to deflect from Brandon the Human Fuck Up Machine; who has had a miserable few weeks. Dud visit to border. Followed up by a disaster visit to Mexico. Classified documents hidden everywhere (4 locations a growing); with every news outlet replaying Brandon's quote about Trump's classified documents. Inflation still way too high (still outstripping wages). Corporations laying off people as fast as they can. Housing market crumbling. Country in a recession (no matter how Democrats try to redefine the term). Supply chain shortages everywhere. Stock Market is down. Fed still cranking up interest rates. China bigger threat than ever (unless your a member of the Brandon family- then China is your #1 asset.).
Brandon is running in 2024. He might not even be able to beat Trump this time around.
Presidential polling takes place from time to time, year round, no matter who is or isnt the president and who are or are not the candidates. Your comments are irrelevant.
And what is funny is that even if things were as dire as you say, which of course they aren't, the GOP STILL can't really convince voters that they or Trump would be any better. They barely eeked out a majority in the house, which is held hostage by the most extreme members of the party, lost a seat in the senate, and lost several high profile state races that were definitely winnable had they not gone with bat shit as their candidates.
You can shit on Biden and the Dems all you like, but the simple fact of the matter is the GOP has not offered any alternative other than whining like pussies about the 2020 election.
I thought it was interesting that 26% of GOP primary voters said they had never heard of Nikki Haley. Seems like a bad sign for her since she has been on the national political scene for about a decade.
Early polling has been getting worse over the years, remember how far off the presidential polling was for 2016 and 2020? Can't answer why the numbers for some of them seem so off, could be for various reasons including lack of trust in those taking the polls. Hell, I don't know. The only presidential poll that really matters is the actual election so I'll wait for that.
A poll like this is probably more accurate than the polls taken around an election time. Polls near the election are trying to predict what the voting turnout will look like and weigh their polling accordingly. A poll taken two years before the election doesnt have that problem.
2016, 2020 and 2022 didn't show that. If anything the early polling was just plain wrong. If you want to put weight behind a poll this early that's your choice but I would say you are making a poor decision in putting much weight behind this.
If I remember correctly, Trump led in national polling for the GOP nomination almost from the time he announced his campaign.
Ok, you're talking Republican primary polling where I was talking Presidential election polling. Yeah, you are correct. Trump as I remember led the polling for the GOP nomination. After the past two years however I have a very hard time taking such a poll seriously due to what Trump himself has done. Add to that the special counsel investigation hanging over his head and I have a very hard time seeing him get the nomination.
Then you haven’t been listening to his idiot supporters or paying attention the the HoR. For his supporters he can do no wrong, full stop. And the GOP in the house has basically caved to his whims even though he, and unyielding support for him is why their mid term results were so embarrassing.
Seems like everyone in the GOP is too afraid to just go right at him.
Once DeSantis announces later this year, Trump will go into his usual attack mode.
The voters, who have an increasing case of "Trump fatigue", have heard it all before and will ignore the negativity.
DeSantis has shown he is an good campaigner and will stand up well against Trump's lies and bombast.
All that actually matters is can Desantis beat trump in the GOP primary, in which the most extreme elements of the parties have an outsized voice. And those assholes seem to support fat ass.
I know the Dems are pulling for trump, the guy is a consistent political loser and is so hated by the majority of Americans that the Dems can run just about anyone not named Hillary and win.
If accurate that is great news for democrats.