Opinion | Kellyanne Conway: The Cases for and Against Trump
By: Kellyanne Conway (nytimes)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Ms. Conway is a Republican pollster and political consultant who was Donald J. Trump's campaign manager in 2016 and senior counselor to him from 2017 to 2020. She is not affiliated with his 2024 presidential campaign.
Donald J. Trump shocked the world in 2016 by winning the White House and becoming the first president in U.S. history with no prior military or government experience. He upended the fiction of electability pushed by pundits, the news media and many political consultants, which arrogantly projects who will or will not win long before votes are cast. He focused instead on capturing a majority in the Electoral College, which is how a candidate does or does not win. Not unlike Barack Obama eight years earlier, Mr. Trump exposed the limits of Hillary Clinton's political inevitability and personal likability, connected directly with people, ran an outsider's campaign taking on the establishment, and tapped into the frustrations and aspirations of millions of Americans.
Some people have never gotten over it. Trump Derangement Syndrome is real. There is no vaccine and no booster for it. Cosseted in their social media bubbles and comforted within self-selected communities suffering from sameness, the afflicted disguise their hatred for Mr. Trump as a righteous call for justice or a solemn love of democracy and country. So desperate is the incessant cry to "get Trump!" that millions of otherwise pleasant and productive citizens have become naggingly less so. They ignore the shortcomings, failings and unpopularity of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris and abide the casual misstatements of an administration that says the "border is secure," inflation is "transitory," "sanctions are intended to deter" Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine and they will "shut down the virus." They've also done precious little to learn and understand what drives the 74 million fellow Americans who were Trump-Pence voters in 2020 and not in the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
The obsession with Mr. Trump generates all types of wishful thinking and projection about the next election from both his critics ("He will be indicted!") and his supporters ("Is he still electable?"). None of that is provable, but this much is true: Shrugging off Mr. Trump's 2024 candidacy or writing his political obituary is a fool's errand — he endures persecution and eludes prosecution like no other public figure. That could change, of course, though that cat has nine lives.
At the same time, it would also be foolish to assume that Mr. Trump's path to another presidency would be smooth and secure. This is not 2016, when he and his team had the hunger, swagger and scrappiness of an insurgent's campaign and the "history be damned" happy warrior resolve of an underestimated, understaffed, underresourced effort. It's tough to be new twice.
Unless what's old can be new again. Mr. Trump's track record reminds Republican primary voters of better days not that long ago: accomplishments on the economy, energy, national security, trade deals and peace deals, the drug crisis and the southern border. He can also make a case — one that will resonate with Republicans — about the unfairness and hypocrisy of social media censorship and alleged big tech collusion, as recent and ongoing revelations show. Mr. Trump, as a former president, can also be persuasive with Republican primary voters and some independents in making a frontal attack on the Biden administration's feckless management of the economy, reckless spending and lack of urgency and competence on border control and crime.
ImageCredit...Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times
Accomplishing this will not be easy. Mr. Trump has both political assets to carry him forward and political baggage holding him back. For Mr. Trump to succeed, it means fewer insults and more insights; a campaign that centers on the future, not the past, and that channels the people's grievances and not his own; and a reclamation of the forgotten Americans who ushered him into the White House the first time and who are suffering economically under Mr. Biden.
A popular sentiment these days is, "I want the Trump policies without the Trump personality." It is true that limiting the name-calling frees up time and space for persuasion and solutions. Still, it may not be possible to have one without the other. Mr. Trump would remind people that it was a combination of his personality and policies that forced Mexico to help secure our border; structured new trade agreements and renewed manufacturing, mining and energy economies; pushed to get Covid vaccines at warp speed; engaged Kim Jong-un; played hardball with China; routed ISIS and removed Qassim Suleimani, Iran's most powerful military commander; forced NATO countries to increase their defense spending and stared down Mr. Putin before he felt free to invade Ukraine.
When it comes to Donald J. Trump, people see what they wish to see. Much like with the audio debate a few years ago "Do you hear 'Laurel' or 'Yanny'?," what some perceive as an abrasive, scornful man bent on despotism, others see as a candid, resolute leader unflinchingly committed to America's interests.
The case against Trump 2024 rests in some combination of fatigue with self-inflicted sabotage, fear that he cannot outrun the mountain of legal woes, the call to move on, a feeling that he is to blame for underwhelming Republican candidates in 2022 and the perception that other Republicans are less to blame for 2022 and have more recent records as conservative reformers.
He also won't have the Republican primary field — or the debate stage — to himself. If one person challenges Mr. Trump, it is likely five or six will jump into the race and try to test him, too. Possible primary challengers to Mr. Trump include governors with impressive records and huge re-election victories like Ron DeSantis of Florida, Kim Reynolds of Iowa and Greg Abbott of Texas; those who wish to take on Mr. Trump frontally and try to move the party past him, like Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia and former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey; those who can lay legitimate claim to helping realize Trump-era accomplishments like former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; and others who wish to expand the party's recent down-ballot gains in racial and gender diversity to the presidential level, like former Gov. Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott, both of South Carolina.
These are serious and substantive men and women, all of whom would be an improvement over Mr. Biden. For now, though, these candidates are like prospective blind dates. Voters and donors project onto them all that they desire in a perfect president, but until one faces the klieg lights, and is subjected to raw, relentless, often excessive scrutiny, and unfair and inaccurate claims, there is no way to suss out who possesses the requisite metal and mettle.
The main talking point against Trump 2024 seems to be that Trump 2022 underperformed and that it left him a less-feared and less-viable candidate. Mr. Trump boasts that his general election win-loss record was 233-20 and that he hosted some 30 rallies in 17 states and more than 50 fund-raisers for candidates up for re-election, and participated in 60 telerallies and raised nearly $350 million in the 2022 cycle for Republican candidates and committees.
Republican voters should be pleased that Mr. Trump and other Republican luminaries showed up and spoke up in the midterms. Mr. Trump wasn't the only one who campaigned for unsuccessful candidates. Mr. DeSantis rallied in person for Kari Lake, Doug Mastriano and Tim Michels. Mr. Pence, Ms. Haley and Mr. Pompeo endorsed Don Bolduc, for example. Even the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, seemed warm and hopeful about a few of the U.S. Senate candidates who came up short. In October 2021 Mr. McConnell claimed, "Herschel [Walker] is the only one who can unite the party, defeat Senator Warnock," and in August 2022, "I have great confidence. I think [Mehmet] Oz has a great shot at winning [in Pennsylvania]."
ImageCredit...Damon Winter/The New York Times
Contrast that to Joe Biden, who was unpopular and unwelcome on the campaign trail in the midterm elections. For seven years Mr. Trump hasn't stopped campaigning, while one could say that Mr. Biden, who stuck close to home for much of 2020 and did relatively little campaigning in 2022, never truly started. It will be tough for Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris to avoid active campaigning when their names are on the ballot.
Any repeat by the 2024 Trump campaign of the disastrous mistakes in personnel, strategy and tactics of the 2020 Trump campaign may lead to the same 2020 result. With roughly $1.6 billion to spend and Joe Biden as the opponent, the 2020 election should have been a blowout. Instead, they proved the adage that the fastest way to make a small fortune is to have a very large one and waste most of it.
Mr. Trump lost support among older voters, white men, white voters with college degrees and independents, though he increased his vote share across notable demographics like Hispanics and Black people. One wild card: Will the hidden 2016 Trump voters, those who wish to keep their presidential pick private from pollsters, return in 2024?
Republicans must also invest in and be vocal about early voting. This is a competition for ballots, not just votes. As ridiculous as it was to vote nearly two months before Election Day and count the votes for three weeks thereafter, some of the state-based Covid-compelled measures for voting are now permanent. If these are the rules, adapt or die politically.
Mr. Biden, for his part, will have his own record to run on, typical advantages of incumbency, powerful campaign surrogates who will join him in making the presidential race a referendum on Mr. Trump, and persistent calls for a third-party candidate who as a spoiler could do for Mr. Biden what Ross Perot did for Bill Clinton in 1992: deliver the presidency to the Democrat with less than 45 percent of the popular vote.
Whether the 2024 presidential election is a cage match rematch of Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump or a combination of other candidates remains to be seen. Each of them has defied the odds and beat more than a dozen intraparty rivals to win their respective primaries. Each of them now faces calls for change, questions about the handling of classifieddocuments and questions about age. For voters, vision matters. Winning the presidency is hard. Only 45 men (one twice) have been president. Hundreds have tried, many of them being told, "You can win!" even as they lost. Success lies in having advisers who tell you what you need to know, not just what you want to hear. And in listening to the people, who have the final say.
Kellyanne Conway is a Republican pollster and political consultant who was Donald J. Trump's campaign manager in 2016 and senior counselor to him from 2017 to 2020. She is not affiliated with his 2024 presidential campaign.
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We can confidently describe this as the most delusional op-ed of 2023, a distinction that could last until 2024 arrives.
Never once in this white washing of Trump's crimes and incredible deficiencies does she mention the election denying, the insurrection, or his pending indictment for election rigging in Georgia. Conway acts as if Trump has been going to church every day since election day 2020.
Expect a lot more of this though, as the right tries mightily to rehabilitate Trumps image. Which is why he remains a daily topic of concern.
"Mr. Trump exposed the limits of Hillary Clinton's political inevitability and personal likability, connected directly with people, ran an outsider's campaign taking on the establishment, and tapped into the frustrations and aspirations of millions of Americans."
Actually, she was pretty much right on. No bullshit in article, just the facts and plain truth.
But now the MAGA banner must be passed forward to those want to restore normal and traditional American values to our country. Biden is endangering our national security and has opened us up to hereto for solvable threats. He and the radical leftists who control him must be voted out.
Time to move on from Trump who has alienated too many former supporters and lost enough of the base to even win another primary, let alone a national election.
I see you have set your sights unto DeSantis, and expect your attacks to him to increase.
I drove into Hagerstown, MD yesterday to pick up an appliance. Recall that Hagerstown was ground zero for the Freedumb Convoy, and is hardcore Trump country. I felt like I needed a shower by the time I got home. The entire community is disgusting. I accidentally parked in the wrong place to pick up the appliance, and a creature resembling Charles Manson chased us out with a look of pure evil and a seething hatred of everything good. Had to go to a gas station to break a $100 bill and the door was being manned by a vagrant seeking tips for doing the hard work of opening the door for anyone who entered. This is Donald Trump’s base.
But it's not DeSantis' base.
Do you think they will vote for Ronald over Donald. Unfortunately for Ronald, they will not. They’ll tell him to put on his go go boots and take a hike.
DeSantis will not be the nominee. First of all he is unlikable. Even other republicans say that. Second he has little to no charisma. Practically every US president of the past 100 years + has had some level of personal charisma. (The two Bushes and possibly Ford) would be the exception.
And there is a lot of question whether DeSantis Christian nationalism will play across a broad audience.
Unlikable? He won Florida by 19 points over his competitor, by your other seed the polling shows him tied at 73% favorable with Trump, and beating trump in the unfavorable rating at 12% where Trump polled unfavorable at 26%. Those numbers would seem to indicate he is favorable among republican voters.
Seems you are not remembering your very own seed.
De Santis has had very little exposure to a national audience. If you think I am making it up about him being unlikeable look it up for yourself.
He is described as charisma free.
“He is described as charisma free.”
His “Barbie” wife will be front and center. Further disenfranchising the suburban white woman vote they covet, yet with they cannot connect…policy matters.
If you think I should believe anything that comes out of Vanity Fair you are smoking some really good shit. Left leaning mainstream media is going to spend the next two years tearing apart any Republican candidate, that's what they do. IMO they are as fair and even minded as you believe Fox News is. Come up with a moderate middle of the road news report that is not a rehash of a report from Vanity Fair and I might listen.
And I think the 2020 elections as well as DeSantis's handling of Covid has given him a fair amount of national exposure.
Here is DeSantis getting harsh with a group of teenagers who were acting as props for one of his events
The question is who the fuck does he think he is? The event wasnt even about covid.
I wonder how many times we'll see this over the next two years ?
He is just an ass.
Sorry no. The Atlantic is no more moderate middle of the road than Vanity Fair.
You are going to be waiting a long time. There is not a conservative outlet that would say anything negative about him just like there are hardly any Liberal press that would praise him.
Yeah ,and reverse that for Biden. We don't have a free and open press anymore, they have picked sides and are acting like partisan gate keepers. This is how a democracy falls. We should demand so much more from our leadership yet so many people are happy to get a loaf of bread at the circus and ignore anything else...
Sometimes I wonder if it is the press or ourselves. An example, the media will publish what they think will get hits and viewership. They will follow the money.
So I kinda blame ourselves when we all run to the nearest partisan talking points to feel self assured.
It is true. And the end of the day all media outlets are for profit entities, their primary goal is to attract an audience and advertiser $s, otherwise they will not stay in business. If you wanna point blame for the state of the media look in the mirror. If you click on a link to an antagonistic, bullshit story or article then you are encouraging more antagonistic bullshit.
Its like my mom complaining about how much pro athletes make while watching the Suns play.
Really a lot of it goes back to getting rid of the Fairness Doctrine during the Reagan admin.
Yeah, it's both I believe. Media outlets are set to maximize profits and pandering to their audience can really help their bottom line. Add in that people tend to want to confirm their bias or belief and will focus on that which gives them the confirmation. It's a nice warm fuzzy blanket they can wrap themselves up in and call themselves patriots. Now add in that the American voting public is basically lazy. The majority will not research issues or even try to stay ahead of the game. How many people have voted the same political party that their parents voted? So long as they have BBQ's in the summer, football in the fall and a week vacation every year, they will happily drink the kool-aid offered.
Yeah. I admit I am bias. I don't think I could ever get around that. It is hard when a belief is challenged and people want to feel they are right.
The ironic thing is I think fundamentally we all want (mostly) the same things.
Thanks for sharing, but your uninformed response is worthless.
Millions of us like DeSantis, and that's all that counts.
Only to you and other uninformed leftists. DeSantis and many other Republicans handed liberals their asses in the mid terms in Florida.
Many of those that voted for him are northern transplants that now see the light of the evil ideology of liberalism.
He appears to a leader and a uniter, unlike Biden the Clueless, or Trump the Divider.
lol
Donald Trump calls Ron DeSantis an ingrate with 'no personal …
Web Jan 17, 2022 · Best frenemies : Donald Trump is 'trashing Ron DeSantis in private for having no charisma and a dull personality because he fears the popular Florida governor might …
I am 100% certain you do not know what liberalism is. I mean, unless you are a fascist at heart.
The entire community is disgusting
buddy, wait till you go to places like Englewood in Chicago that run up some of the highest margins in the country for democrats.
You think a mean look is going to be your biggest problem there?
The violent crime rate per 1,000 residents in Hagerstown is 5.74 while in Englewood it is 36.08.
Too bad Hal's comment had nothing to do with Englewood, Chicago.
Nor does the seed for that matter. I've never seen anyone on a current events forum that has as much trouble staying on topic as you do.
It’s called a comparison, you should recognize that as you frequently make them yourself.
Greg Jones brought up DeSantis and I made comments about DeSantis.
Hal brought up something related to trump (the topic of the seed) by saying he thought the people of hagerstown were MAGA. Sean, and then you, brought up an inner city neighborhood in Chicago. What does that have to do with hal's comment?
Hal said much more than MAGA
I compared the crime rate of the “disgusting community “ with another community for perspective.
What did Hal's comment have to do with the topic? Hmm?
Absolutely nothing, but because it fit the narrative of insulting what they perceive as MAGA residents, it is wholly accepted.
I sure hope you were able to get the stink off of you. Why do you even shop there?
The Mayor of Hagerstown, Emily Keller also serves as the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender (LGBTQ) Liaison for the Mayor & Council. Three of the Council members are woman and two are Black. What is really disgusting is your painting them with a broad brush.
MAGA country.
At this point, neither Trump or Biden are electable.
No, both of them are electable if their parties nominate them. In which case, Biden will whoop Trump worse than he did in 2020...
Any Republican will be able to beat Biden if he decides, or is able, to run. This document scandal narrative seems to have legs that are getting longer
Anyone but Trump that is.
I really hope the Dems decide to go with someone else, if for no other reason than Biden is old as shit and the presidency is one of the most stressful jobs on the planet. When you actually do it that is, and don't spend 8 hours a day watching TV and tweeting.
Me too. He is well past his prime... I think he should of run instead of Hillary but old news.
IMO he never had a prime.
I really think this classified document fiasco hurts the Democrats more than it hurts the Republicans.
The Democrats really don't have a good candidate to put in place of Biden and I think that will hurt them long term. People are tired of the status quo and what Democrats are lined up are too much the same establishment types.
The Republicans do have younger and more exciting people (IMO) in the wings with a good amount of political experience to be able to be effective. It all depends on messaging.
Now I also believe that Trump hurts the Republicans more than Biden hurts the Democrats. Unless Trump is indicted before the election I believe he's going to run and if he doesn't win the primary then I believe his ego is big enough that he may just jump in as an Independent and split the Republican vote. So 24 is gonna be an interesting election cycle. Just wish we could do it without all the TV crap that's gonna spew...
I agree the dems don't really have anyone. No one that could excite a national stage.
Yet I have to disagree a little about the younger reps. A lot of them are more of the extremist type.
I take Lake as an example. For a little bit she was almost a rep darling. Now she has fizzled herself out with her election denying crap.
These are the Republican contenders, without Trump
Ron DeSantis
Mike Pence
Nikki Haley
Ted Cruz
Mike Pompeo
Greg Abbott
Glenn Youngkin
This group strikes you as young and exciting? Not me.
Possible Democrats
Gavin Newsome
Gretchen Witmer
Sherrod Brown
Pete Buttigieg
Kamala Harris
Cory Booker
Maybe not an exciting group either, but no less so than the republican list
Chris Sununu and Larry Hogan are better choices.
Agreed. Makes their suspected candidate (Biden) look bad while he already has never enjoyed much popularity, and that is on top of the fact that he is old as hell and it is showing more and more. I have no idea why the Dem leadership is not looking for someone to pass the torch to, someone younger, charismatic, and without all the baggage. But I have absolute confidence that the Democrats will do everything in their power to give Donald Trump a fighting chance at being president again.
I don't think it is that people are tired of the establishment, I think people just want someone younger, more charismatic, and who will actually focus on the no shit problems we have. Both sides are too caught up in the culture wars and fucking Twitter likes that they are not paying attention to things that actually matter.
And that last bit is their gigantic problem. all those young exciting people can't take their mouths off Trump's dick for 2 seconds to express an original thought of their own. Their "exciting" pols just parrot Trump and kiss his ass at every opportunity. Aside from the fact that most people don't like Trump as a person, he has no vision. He has no plan, no ideas, no priorities other than trying to further enrich himself. The GOP establishment and their "exciting" pols have hitched themselves to an empty suit. They cannot take a position without running it by him first, of course the problem is he has no position. Therefore they have no position.
I think Trump could surprise me for the first time ever by NOT running as a third party candidate if he doesn't get the nomination. He is the most predictable person on the face of the Earth. If Trump is on the ballot in any way in 2024 the odds are heavily in the Dems favor (not that they won't find a way to fuck it up). If he is not then the Dems have a serious problem and are the underdogs.
I haven't watched cable "news" in 10 years, I wish more people would do the same. Every time I go to my parents house they have Fox on and I just turn it off and tell them its gonna make them retarded.
Larry Hogan seems fairly sensible. I would consider him if he ran, but that also depends on who the GOP puts up for the house and senate as well. If they toss in a slate like the last one then even if I though Hogan would be better I still wouldn't vote for him because that would be empowering extremist pricks like the GOP tried to get elected this last time around.
The first paragraph is pretty funny. She makes it sound like Trump was some sort of dark horse that came out of nowhere and pulled of some major upset by capturing hearts and minds when the reality is he was already a household name (sadly) and won by 70k thousand votes spread across three key states while losing the popular vote by several million. Not only that, he was competing against the only other candidate people liked as little as him. Remember, Trump has always been viewed negatively by a majority of Americans.
The democrats basically gave him a real chance at winning by making their nominee someone who was just not widely liked by the majority of the electorate, and even then Trump barely managed to squeak by.
They know how unpopular Hillary was before they nominated her, but it was her turn.
Dumbest fucking thing they could have done. I said it loudly and often at the time. I was not even remotely surprised when she lost, and I said the Dems had only themselves to blame. Literally anyone else in the field would have beat Trump. When it comes to legislation I trust the Dems far more than the GOP, but when it comes to actual politics, goddamn they suck. Seriously the only way they win elections is by having the GOP actually try and run things, fuck it up horribly, and then the Dems being "not the GOP".