Homicides Are Plummeting in American Cities
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Homicides in American cities are falling at the fastest pace in decades, bringing them close to levels they were at before a pandemic-era jump.
Nationwide, homicides dropped around 20% in 133 cities from the beginning of the year through the end of March compared with the same period in 2023, according to crime-data analyst Jeff Asher, who tabulated statistics from police departments across the country.
Philadelphia saw a 35% drop in killings as of April 12 compared with the same period last year, police data show. In New York City, homicides fell 15% through April 7. Homicides in Columbus, Ohio, plunged 58% through April 7.
And Boston had just two homicides this year as of March 31, compared with 11 over the same time frame last year.
The drop is an acceleration of a trend that began last year, following a surge in the number of homicides during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The declines so far in 2024, on top of last year’s drop, mirror the steep declines in homicides of the late 1990s.
“There’s just a ton of places that you can point to that are showing widespread, very positive trends,” said Asher, co-founder of criminal justice consulting firm AH Datalytics. “Nationally, you’re seeing a very similar situation to what you saw in the mid-to-late ’90s. But it’s potentially even larger in terms of the percentages and numbers of the drops.”
If the trend continues, the U.S. could be on pace for a year like 2014, which saw the lowest homicide rate since the 1960s. But police officials and researchers cautioned that crime trends aren’t always consistent and future homicide rates are difficult to predict.
Some cities, like Denver, Los Angeles, and Portland, Ore., reported rises in homicides as of early April, Asher’s data show. But such increases are outliers. More typical is Baltimore, where homicides have declined 30% so far this year.
During the pandemic, homicide rates shot up around the country, sparking concerns that the progress made during a decadeslong drop in violent crimes had been undone. The number of homicides in the U.S. rose nearly 30% in 2020 from the prior year to 21,570, the largest single-year increase ever recorded by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Researchers and authorities attributed the upward spike to several factors, including crime-prevention programs, courts and prisons being unable to operate normally when Covid was spreading; young people not in school due to shutdowns; and law enforcement pulling back after social unrest following the high-profile police killings of George Floyd and other Black people.
“The police went to sleep,” said Dean Dabney, a criminology professor at Georgia State University in Atlanta. “The prosecution and the courts went to sleep, and the jails and prisons let people out. So you had an ideal situation for criminals.”
Now, police are more engaged and departments are working to hire more officers. Community-based crime prevention programs have resumed. And nationwide social unrest has cooled.
“It’s not one single thing that makes that number fall. Here in D.C., and I’m sure it’s like this in most cities, it’s a collaboration of efforts,” said Leslie Parsons, an assistant chief for the Metropolitan Police Department in Washington, where homicides have dropped 26% so far this year compared with 2023.
In some cities, the homicide decline has been accompanied by a reduction in property crime as well. San Francisco, where property crime has been a huge problem in recent years, has recorded decreases in burglaries, robberies, larceny thefts and motor vehicle thefts so far in 2024.
The city has also seen nine homicides as of April 7, compared with 13 during the same period in 2023.
Crime researchers have been particularly struck by the drops in cities that have been the most plagued with violent crime in recent years, like New Orleans.
In the first half of 2022, it had the highest homicide rate of any major U.S. city, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of crime data. Through April 10 of this year, the number of killings dropped 39% from the same period in 2023.
But Ronal Serpas, who was the city’s police superintendent from 2010 to 2014 and is now a criminal-justice professor at Loyola University New Orleans, said the declining numbers aren’t changing the broad public perception of crime.
Polls indicate that people remain worried about homicides and other criminal activity, like illegal drug use, in their communities.
“There certainly isn’t as much gun violence or as many murders as there were, but the drug trade is the same,” said Alfred Klosterman, a 73-year-old retired graphic artist in Philadelphia. “I guess I feel a little safer, but you know they are still out there.”
Write to Dan Frosch at dan.frosch@wsj.com and Cameron McWhirter at Cameron.McWhirter@wsj.com
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Damn Biden! Am I Right?
Yep, 488 gun shoot and wounded and 193 killed last year in New Orleans. Both are down from 2022. In 2019, 121 were killed.