In echo of 2020, Trump claims he’ll lose only if Democrats ‘cheat’
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Column by Philip Bump
August 22, 2024 at 2:22 p.m. EDT
Few people have invested more personal time and energy in anything than Donald Trump has invested in convincing the world, and perhaps himself, that he is more popular than the publicly available evidence would suggest.
Trump has been the Republican nominee twice before, earning about 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and about 7 million fewer votes than Joe Biden four years later. His response each time was to insist that the numbers were wrong or insignificant or both, claiming after 2016 that there was some undetected fraud that led to his losing California and New Hampshire (among other places) and claiming after 2020 that there was undetected fraud, well, everywhere.
There were lots of other claims, too, of course, and lots of other rationalizations. (How many times has Trump boasted about getting more votes than any sitting president, ignoring that his opponent got far more?) But there are also many other facets of his efforts to prove that his popularity extends beyond the visible world. How else can we explain his obsession with the size of rally crowds or with television ratings or with the number of people who engage with him on social media? There’s only one throughline: Trump is wildly popular, no matter what you might have heard on CNN at 11 o’clock Eastern time on election night.
As we saw in the aftermath of the 2020 election, the point of intersection between Trump’s interest in proving his popularity and actual electoral outcomes is a dangerous place to be. Trump spent much of his last year in office insisting that his reelection was all-but-certain unless Democrats cheated — which, he said repeatedly (without evidence but with bad argumentation), they were planning to do. Then he lost, and there was chaos.
He is at it again. At a rally in North Carolina on Wednesday, Trump insisted that the only way he could lose in November would be if his opponents were to cheat.
“Our primary focus is not to get out the vote,” he said. “It’s to make sure they don’t cheat, because we have all the votes you need. You can see at every house along the way, has signs: Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump-Vance, Trump-Vance.”
People familiar with political campaigns can’t read this sentence because they just smacked their foreheads in disbelief. Disbelief first of all at the contrast Trump draws between not needing to turn out votes and there are lots of votes out there. Which is why you want to have a good turnout/get-out-the-vote operation, to ensure those ballots are cast. To show my age, it’s like the episode of “The Simpsons” in which Bart runs for class president. He has the most support — but none of his friends bother voting.
That assumes that the votes are actually out there, of course, of which — the other reason all those foreheads that got smacked — lawn signs are not a strong indicator. Candidates like lawn signs because they feel like a measure of support. But they are not. They aren’t according to research, they aren’t as his allies have seen, and they aren’t as he should have seen. They are no more an indication of robust political support than, say, a nonscientific poll conducted by a partisan on social media.
Something like that could be considered illustrative or useful only by someone motivated to view it that way.
In the abstract, the confidence that Trump and his allies exude, however sincere, is odd. Vice President Kamala Harris is leading in the polls and getting more people at her rallies, and the Democratic convention is even getting more viewership on television. Trump’s efforts to deny or ignore all of this is not particularly healthy.
But we aren’t operating in the abstract. We’re operating in a world where Trump insisted that he hadn’t lost the 2020 election, which he lost, and in which even the supporters who didn’t violently assault the Capitol still generally believe that’s true.
One shift that has occurred since Harris became the Democratic nominee (after Biden stood aside a month ago) is that, according to YouGov polling, Americans are less likely to say that they assume Trump will win in November. That is true of Republicans, too. At the time of the Republican convention, Americans were more likely to think Trump would win than Biden by a more than 20-point margin. Republicans were more than 80 points more likely to say they thought Trump would win.
Then Harris became the Democratic nominee, and perceptions of who will win have drawn even. That’s in part because Democratic confidence in their candidate has risen. It’s in part, too, because Republicans are less confident than they were. And that’s not a measure of some new cheating scheme that accompanied Harris; it’s clearly mostly a recognition that she is polling better.
But this perception hasn’t made its way up to the guy at the top of the Republican ticket. Instead of saying — as candidates often do and as Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, did on Wednesday — that the race is close and that he, therefore, needs his base to commit to voting, Trump says it all comes down to imaginary cheating. The Republican Party, now led in part by his daughter-in-law, is investing in this approach, as well, focusing on poll-watchers and recruiting lawyers to challenge results. Actual turnout is being handed off to outside groups that have as much incentive to fundraise as to get Trump elected.
Trump can lose in November, and, if history is any guide, he may well get fewer votes than Harris. But he can’t or won’t acknowledge this, and his team and supporters can’t or won’t act as if it’s a possibility as a result. Instead, there is an entire economy centered on proving just how popular Trump is.
We’ll get a hard count in November.
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Where are the Republicans to say this is wrong?
nothing new.
He is a con-man and a simpleton who is entirely predictable.
Tell it to Xi, Kim, Putin, and the Ayatolla. Why the hell do you think they didn't pull shit while he was in office? Because he is UNpredictable as hell.
Is it your desire to have a loose-cannon ... an unpredictable, irrational president because you think that keeps dictators at bay?
Yeah, no one else has ever kept them at bay before . /s
Did it not?
Certainly not the present administration. That's for damn sure.
Correlation does not mean causation. That is the fodder of conspiracy theories and, in general, imagining 'facts' that are not so.
Bullshit. FACT is they were at bay. Rationalize it all you want if it helps you.
Iraq invaded Kuwait while a Republican was president. Al-Qaeda attacked the United States when a Republican was president. Terrorists blew up a marine barracks in Lebanon when Reagan was president. Russia was fighting with Ukraine while Trump was president (remember the military aid he threatened to with hold from Ukraine. He got impeached for it). Other countries operate on their own timetables for their own reasons.
How much of that shit happened under Trump? NO fucking correlation JR. Ou of all people should know, Trump is not your traditional Republican.
I am not going to explain correlation vs. causation to you. I get the impression that you just do not care ... you simply want to believe that Trump has a superpower.
But I will note that you refused to answer my question:
Yes it does.
And no, no superpower except unpredictability.
Oh, despite your condescending tone, I know what Correlation vs. Causation means
What does that have to do with anything? You're reaching John
Was The World Really Peaceful During Donald Trump's Era? Analysis Reveals Complex Layers
Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted that the world was a more peaceful place during his tenure. However, his own national security advisers have a different take on the matter.
What Happened: The Wall Street Journal article highlights that during Trump’s presidency, the world witnessed several conflicts and near-crises, including Iran’s attacks on U.S. personnel in the Middle East and Russia’s aggressive actions against the U.S. and its allies.
"It would not have happened if I were in office," Trump said in Schnecksville, "Today we are considered a joke. It's not going to be for long, believe me."
Trump’s approach to these conflicts was often more cautious than his public statements suggested. He was hesitant to respond to Iran’s attacks and carried out limited strikes in the Middle East.
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Despite Trump’s claims, his policies in the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Russia are believed to have contributed to the overseas challenges faced by President Joe Biden.
Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018 escalated tensions in the region. Despite initial approval for attacks on Iranian targets, the strikes were called off, and Iran retaliated by firing on a base in Iraq, injuring over 100 U.S. troops. Trump’s handling of the Gaza crisis has also been criticized, with some attributing the crisis to his policies.
"His view was generally that war is terrible for the economy, it's terrible for business, and any time there is widespread violence, it has a negative effect on what he cares about, which is prosperity and growth," a former senior Trump national-security adviser said.
See Also: Biden Vs. Trump Contest Could Be Lost Cause For One Candidate If History Were Anything To Go By, According To Pollster
Trump initially praised Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan in August 2021. However, he later criticized Biden for abandoning the Bagram air base, calling the withdrawal a “surrender.” Biden officials countered, attributing the withdrawal to a Trump-era deal with the Taliban.
Trump’s handling of the Ukraine-Russia conflict has also been a point of contention, with some experts suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have been planning the invasion for several years.
"Putin may have been thinking, ‘Well, look, I'll wait until the 2020 election is over before I make a move on Ukraine. If it's Trump, then it means one thing; if it's Biden, it may mean something else,'" John Bolton, who served as one of Trump's White House national-security advisers said.
During Trump’s presidency, North Korea advanced its nuclear missile capabilities. Trump’s “fire and fury” threat in August 2017 marked a peak in tensions, with Pyongyang responding by threatening Guam. Despite later diplomatic efforts, North Korea persisted in its missile program.
Why It Matters: Trump’s foreign policy and its impact on global stability have been a subject of intense debate. His handling of international conflicts and relations has continued to be a point of contention, with his own national security advisers offering a different perspective on the situation.
I’m not saying trump is the reason there were no wars, but, there were none while he was in office and it’s entirely possible he was the reason there were no wars. To deny the possibility is nothing but blind partisan hackery.
What about Afghanistan?
Trump did not get us out of Afghanistan even though he wanted to and knew it was inevitable because he knew it would be messy and unpopular. The US pulling out like Russia did was humiliating. Joe got it done using Trump's timeline and under the agreement Trump signed. Just another case of MAGA False Grace...
But you still believe a correlation means a causation.
Pointing out that correlation does not mean causation does not preclude coincidence.
It is easy to invent a claim for someone and then argue against it, but that is dishonest (and cheap).
Nope.
Trump’s plan did not include pulling the military out first. That is where biden’s people screwed the pooch.
Eyes wide closed
More like faulty logic supporting wishful thinking.
This is idiocy!
This is idiocy!
Yep.
These's an olde saying:
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose!
Indeed.
Donald called down to Georgia. He was ready to make a deal. And you can bet you're gonna regret those votes he wants to steal. Fire on a mountain top run Kam run. Devil's in the house of the setting sun. Come November O'Trump is done...