Closing Arguments: How Harris Can Pin Down Trump - Blueprint
3-4 minutes 10/16/2024
October 16, 2024
As Trump continues to “flood the zone” in the election’s final weeks, it is increasingly difficult to pin him down and identify the most effective attacks against him—considering voters’ short memories and indifference to some of Trump’s most controversial moments (or at least what’s viewed as controversial in the minds of Democratic consultants). However, for the sliver of still-undecided voters who remain Trump-curious, it is essential to identify which attacks are most effective—and which aren’t.
Blueprint’s latest message test on closing arguments against Donald Trump shows that Vice President Harris can successfully swap her politics of joy with persuasive foreboding as the campaigns gear up for ‘Spooky Season.’
The best-testing closing arguments against Trump are those that emphasize his lack of support from his former cabinet and numerous Republicans (a topic the Harris campaign is running extensive ads on), his responsibility for the overturning of Roe v. Wade , and his intentions to gut Social Security and Medicare and the Affordable Care Act:
[Republican endorsements] Nearly half of Donald Trump’s cabinet have refused to endorse him. When Trump learned during the Capitol riot that his supporters were threatening to kill his own vice president, he said ‘so what?’ and refused to do anything to ensure the vice president was safe. Republican governors, senators, and House members have all said the same thing: we can’t give Trump another four years as president. (+12 preference effect for Harris, +14 with independents)
[Roe v. Wade] Donald Trump appointed the judges who overturned Roe vs. Wade. Since then, Trump abortion bans have been passed in 22 states and women are dying because they can’t get the care they need. Now he wants to go further, with plans to restrict birth control, ban abortion nationwide, and even monitor women’s pregnancies. Kamala Harris will protect our fundamental rights and freedoms, because the government should not be allowed to control women’s personal medical decisions. (+10 preference effect for Harris, +12 with independents)
For the message test, Blueprint surveyed an online sample of 2,993 voters from October 10th to October 13th, weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results. The survey was conducted in English, and its margin of error is ±2.0 percentage points.
Harris has outspent Trump by hundreds of millions of dollars and Trump has the momentum. Hundreds of millions more in dark money isn't going to rescue her. "issues" don't matter at this point. It's going to come down to how many ballots Democrats can harvest vs how many Trump supporters actually vote, as their turnout is unreliable.
Nearly half of Donald Trump’s cabinet have refused to endorse him.When Trump learned during the Capitol riot that his supporters were threatening to kill his own vice president, he said ‘so what?’ and refused to do anything to ensure the vice president was safe. Republican governors, senators, and House members have all said the same thing: we can’t give Trump another four years as president. (+12 preference effect for Harris, +14 with independents)
If this is taken to heart by independents Trump is toast.
If this is taken to heart by independents Trump is toast.
Even that very pro-Harris poll that was on the front page the other day had Trump comfortably winning independents. No one is changing their mind at this point.
CNN's Harry Enten points out what actually matter:
If you believe that Donald Trump has somehow become less popular over time, let me change your mind about that In fact, he is more popular at this point in the campaign than he was at this point in the 2020 campaign or the 2016 campaign. Look, he's still underwater with a negative nine-point net favorability rating, but that is higher than he was in 2020.. when he nearly won and it is way higher [than it was in 2016] when he did win. So I think there's this real question in Kamala Harris' mind, in the campaign's mind, why is Trump more popular now than he was at this point in 2020 and 2016
This is why Trump has a better chance to win this election right now than he did at a comparative point in either 2016 or 2020. The Vance/Walz debate ended the Kamala lovefest and Trump's numbers have improved since.
Yeah. I remember when Democrats claimed "dark money" and such was destroying democracy. Now that they raise and spend twice as much as Republicans, they've grown really quiet about the evils of money.
It's going to come down to how many ballots Democrats can harvest vs how many Trump supporters actually vote, as their turnout is unreliable.
So, much like many others on the right, you still haven't accepted the fact that THERE WAS NO FUCKING WIDESPREAD VOTER FRAUD found in the 2020 Presidential election or any previous election, so your snarky claim that Democrats are "harvesting" ballots is pure fiction. As for your assertion that Trump voters are unreliable, I'm sure most of their elementary school teachers would agree.
Don't be too disheartened, it's not 'half' by a longshot. A minority of Americans know Trump is crazy but he's their kind of crazy so they're voting for him anyway. The vast majority of Americans, by several million, know what a fucking loser piece of shit dirty Donald is and would never vote for that narcissistic convicted felon serial rapist. Of course, because of the electoral college, that may not make a difference but know that those who stand against Trump stand with the majority of sane Americans who see through all the bullshit and weak conspiracy theories coming from the sad bitter losers.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
blueprint2024.com /polling/trump-closing-argument-10-16/
Closing Arguments: How Harris Can Pin Down Trump - Blueprint
3-4 minutes 10/16/2024
October 16, 2024
As Trump continues to “flood the zone” in the election’s final weeks, it is increasingly difficult to pin him down and identify the most effective attacks against him—considering voters’ short memories and indifference to some of Trump’s most controversial moments (or at least what’s viewed as controversial in the minds of Democratic consultants). However, for the sliver of still-undecided voters who remain Trump-curious, it is essential to identify which attacks are most effective—and which aren’t.
Blueprint’s latest message test on closing arguments against Donald Trump shows that Vice President Harris can successfully swap her politics of joy with persuasive foreboding as the campaigns gear up for ‘Spooky Season.’
The best-testing closing arguments against Trump are those that emphasize his lack of support from his former cabinet and numerous Republicans (a topic the Harris campaign is running extensive ads on), his responsibility for the overturning of Roe v. Wade , and his intentions to gut Social Security and Medicare and the Affordable Care Act:
ABOUT THE POLL
For the message test, Blueprint surveyed an online sample of 2,993 voters from October 10th to October 13th, weighted to education, gender, race, survey engagement, and 2020 election results. The survey was conducted in English, and its margin of error is ±2.0 percentage points.
The survey was conducted in English.
In the end it comes down to fitness for office. The independents seem to know it.
Harris has outspent Trump by hundreds of millions of dollars and Trump has the momentum. Hundreds of millions more in dark money isn't going to rescue her. "issues" don't matter at this point. It's going to come down to how many ballots Democrats can harvest vs how many Trump supporters actually vote, as their turnout is unreliable.
If this is taken to heart by independents Trump is toast.
Even that very pro-Harris poll that was on the front page the other day had Trump comfortably winning independents. No one is changing their mind at this point.
Nope.
Kamala Harris Opens Up 16-Point Lead Over Trump Among Independents: Poll
Harris is running ahead of Trump by 16% with independents as of October 4.
Kamala Harris Holds Major Lead Over Trump Among Florida Independents: Poll
Harris is leading Trump by 14% with independents in Florida as of October 7.
Not true.
Independents Switch Towards Democrats in 9-Point Swing Away From GOP: Poll
Independent voters moved away from Republicans and toward Democrats in a 9 percentage point swing as of the end of September, reported October 15.
By the way, all 12 of the reasons not to vote for Trump are persuasive.
CNN's Harry Enten points out what actually matter:
This is why Trump has a better chance to win this election right now than he did at a comparative point in either 2016 or 2020. The Vance/Walz debate ended the Kamala lovefest and Trump's numbers have improved since.
If you are right, it says something truly dismal about the American people.
Ahhhh the memories. Flashback to '16 and Clinton
Yeah. I remember when Democrats claimed "dark money" and such was destroying democracy. Now that they raise and spend twice as much as Republicans, they've grown really quiet about the evils of money.
I wonder how many are visa gift cards of unknown origin.
And neither are the millions dumped into SuperPAC's by a handful of billionaires supporting Trump.
Elon Musk and other billionaires invest staggering sums into electing Trump
Elon Musk and other billionaires invest staggering sums into electing Trump, plus other takeaways from third-quarter filings | CNN Politics
So, much like many others on the right, you still haven't accepted the fact that THERE WAS NO FUCKING WIDESPREAD VOTER FRAUD found in the 2020 Presidential election or any previous election, so your snarky claim that Democrats are "harvesting" ballots is pure fiction. As for your assertion that Trump voters are unreliable, I'm sure most of their elementary school teachers would agree.
I was raised in a middleclass family?
Don't be too disheartened, it's not 'half' by a longshot. A minority of Americans know Trump is crazy but he's their kind of crazy so they're voting for him anyway. The vast majority of Americans, by several million, know what a fucking loser piece of shit dirty Donald is and would never vote for that narcissistic convicted felon serial rapist. Of course, because of the electoral college, that may not make a difference but know that those who stand against Trump stand with the majority of sane Americans who see through all the bullshit and weak conspiracy theories coming from the sad bitter losers.
You might want to tell Emerson College they are wrong.
Margin of error plus or minus 3
Kamala Harris Gets Bad Sign from New National Poll (msn.com)
No need, they'll find out soon enough.