Six Early Thoughts on Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
By: Jonathan Bernstein (Bloomberg. com)
Too late to spin excuses for a botched up job by Biden. The die is already cast.
Here's a possible scenario to consider:
The estimate was that there were 30,000 separatists fighting in the war in Donbas. The wild card is how many more the separatists can recruit. If the separatists can bring their force strength up to 100,000 then Russian forces aren't needed inside Ukraine. Russia would declare a no-fly zone and the separatists would fight the ground war. The separatists can stage offensives from Belarus under Russian protection. If the separatists succeed in recruitment then Ukraine becomes another Vietnam.
Biden's appropriate response would have been to demilitarize the Donbas region and begin a political process to give the people in the region a voice. That's how western democracy is supposed to work. But that's not what happened. Biden dumped tons of munitions into Ukraine which would have been used by the Ukrainian military to subdue eastern Ukraine by force of arms. The Biden plan was to kill the opposition inside Ukraine.
Now there is no chance that Ukraine will become unified. The division between west and east has become intractable. Biden's chest thumping and finger pointing at Russia won't stop the separatists now. Ukrainian fighters are the real threat against the puppet regime currently headed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Here are a few early thoughts on the Russian invasion of Ukraine:
- As always, be skeptical of the information you see (and, if you’re on social media, amplify). Some will be wrong because it’s deliberate misinformation. Some will be wrong because reporting during military action is always difficult. Remember that things can be reported by legitimate news outlets and good journalists that just turn out to be wrong. (One of the ways you can identify a legitimate news outlet is that it will correct mistakes as rapidly as possible, but mistakes are still inevitable.)
- Be wary of anyone who is certain about how all of this will turn out, whether in the short run or the long run. No one knows today whether this invasion will be a great success or total disaster for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nor should anyone be certain about what President Joe Biden and U.S. allies could’ve done differently to achieve a different outcome. One thing this non-expert is confident about: U.S. pundits tend to massively overestimate American influence on international events.
- A bit of relevant history: Journalist James Fallows reminds us that this is hardly the first time NATO has failed to deter aggression from Moscow. Fallows cites the Soviet attacks on Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968, when their puppet governments appeared unable to stop liberalization movements; he could’ve added the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and the suppression of Solidarity in 1981. This is clearly different, since Russia is attacking a neighboring independent democracy. But, as Fallows notes, none of the U.S. presidents at the time had any intention of a direct military response, although Jimmy Carter (for example) struck back in 1979 with a boycott of the upcoming Moscow Olympics, a grain embargo and support for a sharp increase in defense spending.
- Fallows makes the further point that “in none of those other cases, as best I know, did US have prominent apologists for USSR action, comparable to Trump / Carlson these days.” True, and worth noting. But also worth pointing out that the bulk of Republican responses have been harshly critical of Putin. The U.S. may be more united than it seems. And NATO appears to be about as solidly united as it has ever been, while a broad group of world leaders have joined in support of Ukraine and in opposition to Putin.
- One significant disadvantage for the U.S. during this crisis: a State Department that has been hollowed out for some time, especially during Donald Trump’s presidency. Biden shares some responsibility, as he has been slow to nominate ambassadors, while the Senate has been slow to confirm non-controversial nominees when Biden has acted. There’s also no nominee at the Treasury Department for undersecretary for international affairs; Biden did send the Senate a choice for deputy undersecretary/designated assistant secretary for international finance in early August, but that nominee has been waiting for a final vote since November, as has the nominee for assistant secretary for financial markets. Of course, people are designated to do those jobs in the interim, but they don’t have the clout that a Senate-confirmed presidential selection would. And there’s simply nothing that can be done rapidly to make up for lost experience in the permanent civil service.
- On the plus side: It’s a nice time to have what appears to be a smoothly functioning White House, and an experienced president who by all accounts has strong relationships with U.S. allies. It doesn’t guarantee good decisions, let alone good outcomes, but it’s still a lot better than the alternative.
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At this point, Russia has become a distraction for how the war in Ukraine will evolve. If the separatists fail in their recruitment efforts then the war won't last long. But if the separatist succeed in recruiting more fighters (as Putin obviously expects) then the war's outcome is rather predictable. The DPR will be in Kyiv the same way the Viet Cong were in Saigon. Without US troops in Ukraine, the puppet government may well collapse rather quickly.
Where's Hamad Karzai now? The puppet Ashraf Ghani only stayed long enough to clean out his bank account. And we're supposed to believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be any different? Ukraine is even more corrupt than was Afghanistan.
Now there is no chance that Ukraine will become unified.
There's a good possibility that you may be wrong.
In fact, there's a possibility that the Ukraine will end up being unified-- under the rule of a Russian puppet government
It looks like western Ukraine will not accept a Russian puppet government - and - eastern Ukraine will not accept a European puppet government. Both sides has access to advanced military arms now. Ukraine is rapidly becoming permanently divided.
It appears that the seeder wants the separatists to win.
In reality, they have already won. Donetsk and Luhansk are essentially ethnic Russians and will never submit to Western rule
I thought that America supported separatists - as in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.
The separatists are basically Putin loving commies....the same scum that shot down the airliner....with a Russian rocket. The Hong Kongers were living free until China tossed out democracy
I really don't understand what the fuss is over democracy in Hong Kong, when in 25 years it will be included as part of the mainland under the total control of the CPC. Nothing was to be gained by the protests and riots - what will happen is inevitable. I have never wasted my time with lost causes, it is no more than repeatedly banging one's head against the wall to do so.
Since I happen to know two of those separatists I am going to correct that. Neither would cross the street to spit on Putin if he was on fire. They are choosing Russia over a fascist pro western Ukrainian government that has tried to outlaw their language of all things. The former President signed it into law just before he left office; as a jab to the new President that spoke mostly Russian in public.
The article is only partially correct. The law just didn't piss off Russians. It pissed off every other minority in the country that wants to keep their parent country's language as their main one. Nothing like getting a full dose of indoctrination for your kids when you send them to school. Imagine the outcry if the US tried to force every immigrant coming to this country to learn English to hold any job associated with the government; and forced their children to learn English in schools.
Ukraine has many nationalities living within their country; and they all tend to group together, and carve out areas. Mostly it is for safety. The fascists are more than tolerated by the government as they will fight the Russians. The government turns a blind eye to just who else they are fighting sometimes because they don't want to lose militant front line fighters.
By the way Ukrainians also live and work in Russia. They aren't chased through the streets, beaten, and threatened. Probably because Russia hates independent fascists; they have to work for the government and follow orders to be accepted. Hopefully most of them won't take the Ukrainian government's advise and return to Ukraine. Who the hell calls their people back into a war zone?
I don't agree with Putin invading Ukraine (Putin may be smart and ruthless- but he is also an unmitigated asshole that doesn't care about anyone or anything other than himself); but everyone needs to stop acting like Ukraine is a "peaceful Democracy". They are far from peaceful; and are a Democracy in name only.
Good seed.
It appears some members here can’t handle truth.
SOSDD