Ukraine war at a turning point with rapid escalation of conflict
By: Karen DeYoung (The Washington Post)
Apparently we're supposed to be chasing chickens. The latest developments just don't fit the spin so there's obvious confusion over what pabulum to feed the public.
The damage caused to the Nord Stream pipelines and the Kerch bridge aren't an escalation? And those attacks really do smell of terrorism. Particularly the attack on the Kerch bridge.
Russia has sent a message that Russia can strike anywhere in Ukraine whenever it chooses. Russia has not deployed any new weapons in these latest attacks; Russia has had this capability all along. The number of casualties in these latest attacks are amazingly low which suggests Russia can attack with precision, as well. And it seems that Russia is also sending a message that winter can defeat Ukraine by attacking energy infrastructure. Armies don't run on patriotism; armies require energy. Russia has sent a message that the Ukrainian armies can be deprived of that energy.
Russia, in keeping with its own history, is not fighting a European style war. And it appears that Russia has not yet broached the arsenal maintained for defense of Russia. Putin has already declared vindication and victory in Ukraine. Some of the reporting reflect that Russia is shifting away from offensive operations and preparing an occupation force marking an end to the west's characterization of the war. Russia has a history of utilizing military services to perform civil service tasks. So, an increase in military conscription to occupy and rebuild annexed territory wouldn't be unusual. The way Russia does things, a larger military force would be required to occupy a region than would be required for offensive operations.
Zelensky demanding defensive weapons doesn't indicate that Ukrainian forces have turned the tide of the war. And Zelensky's continuing needs and demands for offensive weapons doesn't suggest that Russian forces are refusing to fight. The reality on the ground doesn't fit the political spin we're being fed.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
In little more than a month, the war in Ukraine has turned abruptly from a grueling, largely static artillery battle expected to last into the winter, to a rapidly escalating, multilevel conflict that has challenged the strategies of the United States, Ukraine and Russia.
Russia’s launch of massive strikes on civilian infrastructure Monday in about a dozen Ukrainian cities far from the front lines brought shock and outrage. The strikes, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken described as “wave after wave of missiles” struck “children’s playgrounds and public parks,” left at least 14 killed and nearly 100 wounded, and cut electricity and water in much of the country.
“By launching missile attacks on civilians sleeping in their homes or rushing toward children going to schools, Russia has proven once again that it is a terrorist state that must be deterred in the strongest possible ways,” Ukraine’s United Nations Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya said at the opening of a General Assembly session scheduled before the assault to promote world condemnation of Moscow.
The attacks were the latest of many head-spinning events — from Ukrainian victories on the ground to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat of nuclear weapons use — that have changed the nature and tempo of the war in recent weeks, and raised questions about whether the United States and its partners may have to move beyond the concept of helping Ukraine defend itself, and instead more forcefully facilitate a Ukrainian victory.
So far, the U.S. supply effort has been deliberative and process-oriented in the kinds of weapons it provides, and the speed at which it provides them, so as not to undercut its highest priority of avoiding a direct clash between Russia and the West. That strategy is likely to be part of the agenda at Tuesday’s emergency meeting of G7 leaders, and a gathering of NATO defense ministers later in the week.
U.S. officials continue to express caution about precipitous moves. “Turning points in war are usually points of danger,” said a senior Biden administration official, one of several U.S. and Ukrainian officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss policy deliberations. “You can’t predict what’s around the corner.”
Russian leaders have cited their own turning point. Viktor Bondarev, head of the foreign affairs committee of Russia’s upper house of parliament wrote in a Telegram post on Monday that the strikes were the beginning of “a new phase” of what the Kremlin calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, with more “resolute” action to come.
Putin, speaking early Monday to his security council, said the attacks were retaliation for what he called Ukrainian “terrorism,” including the blowing up over the weekend of the strategic Crimean Bridge that is a crucial logistics route for Russian occupying forces in southern Ukraine.
The bridge destruction, for which Ukraine has only indirectly claimed responsibility, came after a steady stream of Ukrainian gains that buoyed both Kyiv and its Western supporters. In a surprise counteroffensive begun in early September, Ukrainian forces recaptured more than 1,000 square miles of Russian-occupied territory in the north east, followed by other gains in the south.
The Ukrainian victories, along with persistent reports of poorly equipped and low-morale Russian soldiers who fled the onslaught, abandoning equipment and leaving behind their dead, brought public criticism of the conduct of the war from inside Russia, including from some senior Putin advisers. Within days, Putin had called for the military mobilization of up to 300,000 civilians to bolster his failing forces. The humiliation was compounded by a chaotic implementation and the fleeing of hundreds of thousands of military-aged men across neighboring borders.
In what was widely interpreted as a reference to nuclear weapons, Putin threatened to use “all means available” to defend Russian-occupied territory, even as he moved to annex four Ukrainian regions. “I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction … and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all means at our disposal,” he said on Sept. 21. “This is not a bluff.”
The mobilization and nuclear threats, the senior administration official said, were “signs of two things: Putin does know how bad he’s doing. … That was a question mark before.”
“Two, it’s definitely a sign that he’s doubling down. That we’re not close to the end, and not close to negotiations. Those realities don’t give anyone any great comfort here,” the official said.
Rose Gottemoeller, a former senior State Department official for arms control and nonproliferation issues, and former deputy secretary general of NATO, said: “The use of nuclear weapons is a dead end. It shows the final failure of [Putin’s] policy if he’s somehow driven into that corner,” Gottemoeller said. “It’s the final throwing of the dice,” thinking that “somehow … everyone will panic and all of their supporters will force the Ukrainians to sue for peace … I don’t see that happening.”
“I think we have to take these threats very, very seriously,” she said.
With the Monday strikes inside Ukraine, Putin was clearly trying to reclaim the initiative, but also to bolster the image of a unified strategy and leadership. In his security council remarks, reported by Russian media, he said the missile attack had been fashioned and recommended by his “Defense Ministry, in accordance with the plan of the Russian General Staff.” He made particular reference to the role of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whose absence from public view in recent days had led to speculation that he had been fired.
For its part, Ukraine has long combined its profuse gratitude for Western weapons aid with demands for stepped up delivery of more, and more sophisticated, supplies. The counteroffensive on the ground brought calls for battle tanks to move into contested territory, which the United States and its allies have been reluctant to send. This week, Kyiv attached new urgency to sophisticated air defense systems.
A Ukrainian official, referring to a list provided by the senior military command, said Ukraine’s priority items include the Patriot surface to air missile system, MIM-23 Hawk missiles, attack drones and NASAMS (National Advance Surface-to-Air Missile Systems) as well as Israeli air defense systems.
Ukraine’s pleas found new resonance in some quarters of Washington after the Monday attacks, with senior Democrats, in particular, demanding that Biden move more quickly to supply Ukraine. “I am horrified by Russia’s depraved and desperate escalation against civilian infrastructure across Ukraine — including in Kyiv,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) said in a statement. “I pledge to use all means at my disposal to accelerate support for the people of Ukraine and to starve Russia’s war machine.”
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), a former senior official at the CIA and the Pentagon, tweeted that the need for air defense “is urgent given the scale of these attacks. Providing these systems is a defensive — not escalatory — step, and our European friends need to step up along with us to get the Ukrainians what they need.”
But there was little initial sign that the administration intends to change the relatively lengthy approval process by which it decides what weapons to send to Ukraine, and when. The process includes a U.S. analysis, based on its own reporting of conditions on the battlefield, of what Ukraine needs, a senior U.S. defense official said, and “second, do we have that stuff?”
“Third, do they already know how to use it? If not, what’s our plan to train them? Fourth, how are they going to sustain the stuff? Keep it in the field? Maintain it? Repair it? Spare parts? … If we can’t do those things, who among our allies and partners can do it?” the defense official said.
Once those questions are answered, the request and recommendation is vetted for comment and concerns from other government departments with equities in the decision before going to the White House, where President Biden makes a final determination.
When decision is made, delivery can be made within days for equipment taken from U.S. defense stocks, months if extensive training for use and maintenance is required, or years if particular items need to be manufactured. For example, Biden approved sending the NASAMS air defense system early in the summer, and defense officials have said that two will be shipped this fall, once the systems are ready and training is complete.
An additional six NASAMS, announced by the Pentagon at the end of August, will take years to manufacture. Patriot systems are already in short supply within NATO, and usually travel with their own U.S. or NATO operating teams — a commitment the West is unlikely to make.
Israel, whose prime minister on Monday for the first time condemned Russia, over the missile attacks, has its own complicated relations with Moscow.
“We certainly understand that we are at a potential inflection point here in the war, on many levels,” the senior Biden administration official said. “That thinking is baked into [our] decision-making. … Ukraine has certainly done better and been more aggressive recently, and Putin is feeling the heat on the battlefield, at home, and overseas. There is no question that is a different set of conditions.”
“But we believe that these changes on the battlefield and in Russia have only validated even more our decision-making process,” the official said.
Tags
Who is online
461 visitors
The Biden administration doesn't appear to have a clue what to do. It's all too obvious that Putin isn't fighting Biden's war. Putin has already claimed a victory and Russia really is shifting toward an occupation and rebuilding of annexed territory.
Ukraine was de facto partitioned in 2014 after the parliamentary overthrow of the Ukrainian government. The Russian invasion and war in Ukraine has succeeded in making the Ukrainian partition a tangible reality. The Obama administration hitched its wagon to a corrupt horse. And now that the wheels have come off, it appears Biden is going to ride that corrupt horse into a quagmire.
Russia seems to be following a historical strategy that has never failed. Winter will defeat Ukraine, Biden, and the west.
NYET!
Who uses a truck bomb as a weapon of war?
Russia has lost the war on the ground......it has lost the support of a growing number of the Russian people and no longer has the ability to occupy, supply, or rebuild anything.
Putin is thankfully militarily stupid.
He should have followed the US/NATO war on Serbia to a T. Don't ever send in ground troops. Destroy their air capability and defenses. Destroy their infrastructure- including bridges, any road long enough to land a plane, and any building strong enough to be used as a fortification. Destroy their energy grid- not even generators for hospitals are safe. If it is big enough to power anti aircraft weapons or radar it gets destroyed. All oil and gas refineries and reserves are fair targets. Destroy their transportation system- airports, trains, trucks, buses, and ships- if it is large enough to move people or goods blow it up. Destroy their water supply- you don't need to attack the water works- just destroy all major pipelines from it. Destroy their government- government buildings are a military target- don't leave any standing. Destroy their communications systems. Finally, don't let anyone in or out of the country. Monitor all major access points- and attack as needed.
Then tell the UN to stuff it on any war crimes claims. US/NATO already set the acceptable precedent.
Why? Putin only has to sit back and let winter defeat Ukraine, NATO, and the United States. There really is historical precedent for that strategy.
That's the war Biden wanted to fight. It seems Putin has been fighting his own war on his own terms. And Putin has already declared victory.
Has Putin done enough damage to Ukraine's infrastructure and energy reserves to do that. The US/NATO will not let Ukraine fall; even if it bankrupts us all.
Biden? The moron who fucked up the Afghanistan withdrawal couldn't come up with a military strategy to save his life. His only plan is to remove Putin- not realizing that Putin has been at this longer than Biden has. Putin created the system he rules over. Removing him will take someone able to out Putin Putin. If that happens it should scare the shit out of the planet.
As for winning? What do you call winning? What the hell does he call winning. Ukraine is joining NATO. Putin's prime objective is gone. He has suffered massive military losses and desertions. The Russian Army has been shown to be archaic in leadership, tactics, weapons, and supply management. It will take decades for the Russian military to recover just personnel wise. The only thing keeping the US/NATO from attacking is threat of nuclear war.
If Putin thinks that winter is going to defeat the US/NATO and therefore Ukraine. He doesn't understand that our leaders don't give a fuck about us; just like he doesn't give a fuck about his people. None of the elitists in charge will suffer; that will be left for us peons to do.
The only thing we know for certain is that Putin has declared a victory. Russians celebrated the military doing what Putin said the Russian military would do. Putin welcomed Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation. That would seem to be a highly visible turning point in the war from the Russian point of view.
Russia just sent a message that Russia can cause enough damage to Ukraine's infrastructure to make winter a real danger. The strikes over the last two days really is a message that Russia can strike anywhere in Ukraine whenever Russia chooses. Why Russia has not done that before only the Russians know.
Are we supposed to believe that Putin has been using the military arsenal and assets maintained to defend Russia? Especially since defense of Russia looms large in Russian politics and doctrine? Are we supposed to believe that Russia would weaken its defenses to fight a regional war in Ukraine?
After the botched up withdrawal from Afghanistan we're just supposed to believe that Biden is giving us the straight dope. Biden lied about Afghanistan and it appears Biden is lying about Ukraine. Putin isn't fighting Biden's war any more than the Taliban accepted Biden's peace.
The only thing we know for certain is that Biden doesn't know how to win a war and doesn't know how to win a peace. Biden just fights to score political points and that's the only win that Biden cares about.
If Russia has lost the war on the ground then explain why Zelensky is demanding more advanced weapons for use in both offense and defense. Why would a winning army need much more firepower?
One explanation is that Ukraine has suffered so many losses that advanced weapons are needed to replace manpower. Ukraine has been demanding weapons that require fewer personnel.
Your really think Ukraine is going to give back everything that we have given them? Ukraine is pulling a Taliban on us. By the time this war ends Ukraine will have an advanced well train military in place thanks to the US. Then they can all let their inner fascists out; and not just Azov and the other militant groups that operate freely.
I will agree that Ukraine has suffered massive losses; but name me one military leader that doesn't cry for more and better advanced weaponry? Especially when they aren't even paying for it! The US is the sugar daddy with bottomless pockets. Smaller better armed militaries are something every country strives for. We are handing that to Ukraine on a never ending silver platter.
“ I will agree that Ukraine has suffered massive losses;…”
And thus we have gained an ally against our most dangerous enemy of the last 70 years. And rebuilt faith in the NATO alliance that the previous administration vowed to dismantle.
We’re much better off being a player on the world stage…isolationism is proven to be a failed strategy, regardless of the nationalistic ranting.