China spy balloon: US intel assessing possibility that balloon's path over US was accidental
By: Natasha Bertrand, Katie Bo Lillis (CNN)
Now we're being told that US officials(?) observed the balloon launch and tracked the balloon over the Pacific. Even CNN is aware of the weather and wind patterns. And we're yet to be told exactly what was recovered.
Seems like someone botched up another military operation. Wonder who that someone might be?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Washington CNN — US intelligence officials are assessing the possibility that the suspected Chinese spy balloon was not deliberately maneuvered into the continental US by the Chinese government and are examining whether it was diverted off course by strong winds, multiple people briefed on the intelligence tell CNN.
After the balloon lifted off from Hainan, China last month, US officials monitored it as it made its way across the Pacific, sources said. After tracking the balloon for a little while, officials believed it would head towards Guam, where it would probably try to surveil military sites on the island.
But the balloon instead went north unexpectedly and crossed into Alaska, Canada, and then downward, reentering the US through northern Idaho and moving towards Montana - a path that US officials are not sure was purposeful, and may have been determined more by strong winds than deliberate, external maneuvering by Beijing.
China did maintain some ability to maneuver the balloon, however. Once the balloon was over Montana, officials believe China took advantage of its position to loiter over sensitive sites and try to collect intelligence.
The balloon then moved eastward over the US and was shot down off the coast of South Carolina on February 4 by US fighter jets. As CNN has reported, the US intelligence community last year developed a method of tracking what it says is a fleet of Chinese balloons operating across the globe.
Weather modeling done by CNN suggests it is plausible that the wind currents at the time diverted the balloon northward toward Alaska.
The Washington Post first reported that officials are examining the possibility that China didn't intend for the balloon to travel over the continental US.
Any intelligence suggesting that the balloon's path into the US may have been unintentional could ease tensions between Washington and Beijing and may offer both countries a way out of what has become an increasingly tense diplomatic crisis.
A day after the US publicly revealed the balloon had been spotted, Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed a high-profile trip to Beijing and accused China of deliberately flying the balloon over the US in call with his counterpart Wang Yi, calling it "both unacceptable and irresponsible."
"I made clear that the presence of this surveillance balloon in US airspace is a clear violation of US sovereignty and international law, that it's an irresponsible act and that the PRC (People's Republic of China) decision to take this action on the eve of my planned visit is detrimental to the substantive discussions that we were prepared to have," Blinken told reporters on February 2.
Blinken and Wang will both attend the Munich Security Conference this weekend. US officials said a meeting between the two is not currently planned but have not fully ruled out the possibility.
It is not clear what intelligence the US has gleaned that has made officials consider it a credible possibility that the balloon's overall trajectory may have been at least partly accidental. The US intelligence community is also closely scrutinizing which elements of the Chinese government ordered and approved the balloon's mission.
The US and Chinese governments have been clashing publicly over the vessel, which China has said was a weather balloon that accidentally entered US airspace.
"Affected by the westerly wind and with limited self-control ability, the airship seriously deviated from the scheduled route," China's Foreign Ministry said on February 3. "China regrets that the airship strayed into the United States due to force majeure. China will continue to maintain communication with the US to properly handle the unexpected situation."
The US, however, has insisted that the balloon was being used for surveillance, and that it was not completely at the mercy of the winds. China has flown similar surveillance balloons into mainland US airspace in the past, including near Florida and Texas. But US officials have acknowledged that the balloon's maneuverability was limited.
Asked earlier this month whether the Chinese government is "controlling the movement of the balloon, or is it just floating with air streams," Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder declined to comment in detail.
"I'm not going to go into any specific intelligence that we may have," he said. "Again, we know this is a Chinese balloon and that it has the ability to maneuver, but I'll just leave it at that."
CNN's Jennifer Hansler contributed reporting.
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Obviously the military needs boatloads more money. They're doing a bang-up job.
"Any intelligence suggesting that the balloon's path into the US may have been unintentional could ease tensions between Washington and Beijing and may offer both countries a way out of what has become an increasingly tense diplomatic crisis."
The Biden administration will do anything to let China off the hook and hold it blameless for actively spying on US territory.
They have done the same thing with the gain-of-function research that gave us the Covid pandemic
The reality is that the Biden administration tried everything to put China on the hook. But the propaganda can't withstand the harsh light of reality. What we've learned is that Biden's neoliberal/neocon kneejerk politics really can start wars.
China does engage in questionable activities, particularly from a western point of view. That's partly because China is controlled by a single political party and has allowed party politics to have control over government. Political parties must always appear to be right and depend upon secrecy to avoid blame. But that doesn't excuse Biden exploiting that Chinese weakness to spread propaganda.
If Biden's knees jerk every time China barks then who is really in charge?
Different strokes for different folks, Nerm. Sometimes a single party might be more effective to accomplish good things for the people of a nation, rather than spending time in a divisive useless stalemate. For example, would eradication of abject poverty be possible in the USA, whereas the UN has praised China for accomplishing it in ten years as scheduled? Would total gun control be possible in the USA to effectively prevent such things as an average of more than one mass shooting per day as in the USA - ordinary residents in China are not permitted to possess guns - only the military, police SWAT units and bank money delivery van guards have them. Don't give me the shit that the Chinese people are oppressed - I've been living in China for the past 16 1/2 years and I know better.
How many who practice the traditions of the Falun Gong would agree with your statement? Honestly, do you know of any of these folks and what they have been through since 1999?
Articles in 2020 and 2021 addressing human rights issues.
Just trying to understand what the broader landscape looks like there.
The extreme poverty picture most certainly has improved in China over the last 30-40 years! This article from BBC walks us through it .
The metric for extreme poverty in China and other parts of the world are still much lower than they are here in the US. Very few, if any, in the US live below those international metrics particularly when public subsidies are factored in.
Different strokes for different folks, Freewill. A mistake Americans seem devoted to is to require that every culture, even ancient ones, have be exactly like them. You know, "What's good for General Bullmoose is good for EVERYBODY". Maybe America is happy with cults like Scientology and Q'anon and Proud Bois, etc. but the Chinese government is more concerned with maintaining stability for the good of ALL the people. Note also that 90% of the Uyghur people live normal peaceful lives the same as the vast majority of Chinese people, and only those who threaten the stability are the ones who were detained. Falun Gong was considered a cult that endangered the stability and the maintaining of a peaceful society.
Cults that endanger the good of all the people are the only ones that are oppressed. That's taken to include religions, requiring them to follow certain rules such as no proselytizing, but there are millions of Christians and Muslims who peacefully practise their religions in China.
I have no idea what standards are used in determining metrics but keep in mind that China now has a considerable and steadily burgeoning middle class, and they enjoy the same standards as the middle class in America but at a much lesser cost. The poor here do not live in the streets and under bridges, nor are they in need of necessaries. EVERYONE has a decent roof over their heads, good food on the table, free education fo their kids up to high school graduation and adequate health care. Want to compare what things cost in China with what they cost in the USA? My wife and I live in a completely well-furnished 3 bedroom apartment with two balconies that includes all the usual appliances including a 4.5 foot screen TV in a modern immaculately maintained and guarded apartment building in an upscale area surrounded by 3 university campuses, in the middle of a 3-story mall a two-minute walk to a subway station and buses, across the road from a huge new department store including a big supermarket and a short walk to my bank, located in a city/state with a population almost that of all of Canada, for which I pay rent and all additional necessary expense the equivalent of US$600 a month that includes building management, gas, electric, water, air conditioning, cable TV and internet. Compare that with what one needs to pay in the USA for the same, and you will find that it will be AT LEAST 6 times as much. So yes, people here earn less, but it costs them a hell of a lot less to live. Notwithstanding what happened around most of the world, inflation here was miniscule.
I certainly never said that, I was simply responding to your claim that the Chinese people were not being oppressed (" Don't give me the shit that the Chinese people are oppressed... ") . Yet here is plenty of evidence that 70 to 100 million most certainly are .
I'm glad that you and your wife live in a nice area, but do you think that people who live in the Hamptons or on Park Avenue really know what it is like to live in West Bronx or East Harlem?
Just curious if you have travelled to many areas outside of where you live?
Honestly glad to hear that! And your home sounds great! Interesting that you describe your place being just like the amenities we have in the US, but cheaper, after having said, "A mistake Americans seem devoted to is to require that every culture, even ancient ones, have be exactly like them."
Had you paid any attention to my photos that I had posted pretty well weekly over the years on the Creative Arts group you would not have needed to ask that question.
Ah OK - My bad then...I had not seen those.
I have been to many places in China, rich and poor areas, got to know many people from all classes. The more I have seen, the more I have wanted to see, but unfortunately I came here too late in my life. As for both rich and poor, both are close to me in my wife's siblings. Her younger brother is quite rich, with two cars and is building a nice home in a gated golf course community, while her older brother remains on the family farm and has no wealth, but has all the necessities.
Contrary to some others on this site I try to look at things a little more positively rather than spouting the worst possible scenarios. I wonder what's holding up the release of what the contents of the balloon actually were used for, or perhaps the fact that the balloon unfortunately and unintentionally went off course and its contents would indicate a benign purpose and that would be embarrassing for America, in which case I'm sure the powers that be will say they cannot release the information "for national security reasons". LOL
No, as you demonstrate by immediately suggesting the American government is lying and covering up information, you simply defend China come hell or high water. Poor attempts at at moral equivalence and knee jerk apologism is not "looking at things positively"
As do I at all the folks on this site who feel that China is some enormous Kraken that will swoop down on the slightest criticisms and then try to goad you into making them. You have 'friends' in low places.
Exactly, but it’s not just this site. President Biden has listed China as our biggest threat in his Nation Security Strategy.
Do you believe Biden?
I really believe that all the bullshit spouted by the American government, all the roadblocks they are throwing in China's path, all the demonization, all the attempted containment, all the pressure on other nations to contain China, Aukus, QUAD, etc., all the organizations they have formed to pressure or contain China is really because of the fear that China is going to become the number one nation in the world, deposing America from that spot. The funny thing is that if instead of demonizing and confronting China, even competing with China, if America were to COOPERATE with China it would probably strengthen America and enable it to retain its number one position. However, the two main parties, Democrats and Republicans have unfortunately locked themselves in the position that if either one were to become "soft" on China it would cost it its ability to progress and "rule".
Yes, do you?
As the late Paul Harvey used to say: "And now for the rest of the story." I'm afraid that these days there will never be another Paul Harvey - everything has to be immediate knee-jerk reaction. However, the story that was immediately told was that the balloon was INTENTIONALLY guided to traverse the US mainland and gather intelligence. Notwithstanding that now the evidence indicates otherwise, ignoramuses with their brains imbedded in concrete will still believe China intended for it to fly over the USA just as well as they still believe that the only possible source for the Covid-19 virus HAD to have been a leak from a lab.
Biden has just announced that there is no evidence that the objects subsequent to the one shot down off the Carolina coast were Chinese spy items, but after all, how can that be because China BAD, eh?
China could have told the US that spy balloon was about to enter US air space. China could have taken the spy balloon down themselves before it reached US airspace. It is know for certain that the balloon had explosive devices on the spy equipment. China did neither (please don't even try to pretend China lost track of the balloon); and is still laughing at Brandon's stupid non response. China took full advantage of what limited control they had of the balloon to keep it over Nevada military bases for as long as possible.
As for Brandon's overreaction downing the 3 unidentified objects; it is his own fault for not taking down the Chinese spy balloon when it was over the Pacific, Alaska, or even Canada when he had the opportunity. He can never make up for that monstrous decision; no matter how many hobbyist balloons he downs.
China isn't innocent. They knew full well what they were doing when they allowed their spy balloon to enter US airspace. Any repercussions from the US they brought on themselves.
Yep it's no loss to America if the debris would have killed a few Canadians. After all, it was a national security issue.
What are the chances that the debris field would even come close to touching anyone in Canada? It is even more desolate people wise than Alaska in many places.
So you take issue with the balloons that were shot down over Canadian airspace by the US at Trudeau's request?
I would be more than happy if Canada would take care of their own security and get a real military that couldn't be drowned in a bath tub. Those $450,000 Brandon likes to shoot off at UFO's are damn expensive. The jet fuel and maintenance for the F22's isn't cheap either.
Yeah, what's an Inuit or two - after all, they don't vote in American elections. It was a JOINT ORDER by Biden and Trudeau to shoot down the toys, not Trudeau alone, and since Justin is NOWHERE even close to the man his father was, when Biden says to him "jump", he asks "How high?"
I may have said before that I no longer reply to disdainful assholes who simply aim their animosity at me.
Hope you don't feel that I was aiming any hostility at you Buzz. That was certainly not my intent. I was simply addressing specific statements you made and asking some questions about them, providing some additional pertinent info along the way.
That comment was NOT aimed at you. I reply to your decency, your comments are not meant to attack me or put me down.