Mapping Ukraine's Surprise Invasion of Russia
By: Josh Holder (The New York Times)
Ukraine has gambled and lost. Ukraine's counter-invasion into Russia's Kursk Oblast was a valid tactic to draw Russian troops away from the front lines in Ukraine. Unfortunately Russia hasn't take the bait. So, now the Ukrainian counter-invasion becomes an albatross that cannot be discarded without a significant political cost.
In our own politico/military jargon, Ukraine has broken it and now they own it. Russia is pressing forward inside Ukraine so tying up resources in Kursk becomes extremely costly. But Ukraine withdrawing from Kursk now would raise questions about their competence to prosecute the war with munitions provided by Europe and the United States.
Kursk Oblast has become a quagmire for Ukraine. It was easy going in but it's going to be hell getting out. The political minefield is becoming more dangerous with every passing day.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
After two and a half years of fighting a war on their own soil, Ukrainian forces are continuing to advance within Russia, as their surprise invasion of the Kursk region enters its third week.
Beginning early on Aug. 6, Ukraine quickly broke through thinly manned border defenses and has now captured dozens of Russian towns and villages, adding a new twist to a war that had largely settled into grueling, block-by-block fighting in towns in eastern Ukraine.
Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project
Ukraine's incursion into Kursk brought about one of the largest territorial changes since the first month of the war, when Russia rapidly advanced toward major Ukrainian cities. The head of Ukraine's armed forces, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, has claimed that Ukraine is in control of about 490 square miles of Russian territory.
If confirmed, that would represent roughly the same amount of land that Russian forces seized in Ukraine from January through July of this year, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has said that the aim is to create a "buffer zone" inside Russia alongside the border. He has given no specifics about the size of the area his military is aiming to seize.
This week, Ukraine struck bridges across the Seym River, a move that military analysts say could trap Russian troops between the river and the border with Ukraine.
Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project (claimed extent of Ukrainian advance)
At least three bridges have been damaged, which The Times was able to independently verify through satellite imagery and videos posted to social media.
It is unclear how many Russian troops are in the area, but satellite imagery from Planet Labs, a commercial satellite company, shows that Russia has built temporary pontoon bridges to allow its vehicles to continue to cross the river. One could be seen east of the town of Glushkovo on Aug. 17, with vehicle tracks visible nearby. Another was visible further along the river, just north of Glushkovo, on Aug. 21.
On Wednesday, Ukraine released videos of its forces striking these Russian pontoon bridges in Kursk with U.S.-supplied weapons.
Although Ukraine’s advances have slowed since the first days of its incursion, it continues to push forward, according to imagery verified by the Institute for the Study of War.
Satellite imagery from Planet Labs shows that Russia has built new defensive fortifications around 20 miles from Ukrainian positions in Kursk, near the E38 highway. The fortifications include trenches for troops to fire from, and anti-tank ditches, such as the one shown below.
While the Ukrainian military is gaining ground in Russia, it is losing it back home. The Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine is building momentum.
Russian troops are less than 10 miles from Pokrovsk, putting them in artillery range of the city, which had a population of about 40,000 before the war began and is a key transport hub. To the northeast, Russian troops are on the doorstep of Toretsk, and control most of Niu-York, footage verified by the Institute for the Study of War shows.
Military analysts say that one of Ukraine's likely objectives in invading Kursk was to force Russia to divert troops away from eastern Ukraine to fight in Kursk, but so far the Kremlin has resisted. Instead, it has brought in reinforcements mainly from elsewhere in Russia, prioritizing its military objectives in Ukraine over a rapid response to the foreign incursion.
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Ukraine really has become a quagmire for Europe and the United States. Now Kursk has become a quagmire for Ukraine.
All because Joe Biden wanted to prove he had big cojones. And now American voters have been denied the chance to hold Joe Biden accountable just to provide political cover for somebody's brass.
What's the political solution? Just ignore it and kick the can. Is it any wonder that Democrats have suddenly become so concerned about veterans? Kinda looks like we'll have troops drinking potato beer in Kiev before this is over. Hope there's a helicopter landing pad on the embassy there.
... and a walk in the park for Russia. /S
How is this Biden's fault exactly? Biden didn't tell Russia to invade Ukraine. We do not have troops deployed there. The US has largely been uninvolved in Ukraine. Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine "invading" Russia at this point is turnabout being fair play.
Biden already had US troops deployed to western Ukraine as part of the NATO peacekeeper training program. There was already a NATO mission inside western Ukraine. Biden had a choice between cutting & running (what he chose) - or - bolstering defense of those troops in Ukraine and forcing negotiation with Russia (or Putin, if that is preferable).
The problem with negotiating would have been tacit acceptance of the Minsk Agreements as a starting framework. Obama essentially torpedoed the Minsk Agreements by implying security promises to the interim (unelected) Ukrainian government installed by the Rada (legislature). A return to the Minsk Agreements, that Russia had already agreed to, would have avoided the invasion but would have thrown Obama under the bus. (Side note: Obama was PO'd with Russia for ignoring his red line in Syria and forcing Obama to back away from threats and promises.)
So, yes, it is Biden's fault for mishandling the situation and failing to negotiate. Russia made highly visible, overt movements of troops to the Ukrainian border. There wasn't any surprise. Biden had plenty of time to respond but, instead, chose the Chicken Little approach.
Peacekeeper training is not the same as active combat units. NATO involves other countries besides the US. Russia isn't interested in negotiation, or conquest. But if Biden ran, as you say, them that only affirms that we do not have troops deployed in Ukraine. And since when is Biden responsible for negotiating treaties among other nations? Any negotiation or treaty is between Russia & Ukraine. The US is largely staying out of it.
So, why did NATO PfP training in Ukraine involve training facilities for artillery, tanks, and troops? At one point the Yavoriv training facility was used as a staging area for donated weapons and munitions arriving in Ukraine.
There was a ceasefire. There was an agreement for Ukrainian control of its borders. There were security guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia.
Ask NATO. NATO troops are not composed of just US forces. Neither did NATO invade Russia. The fact remains Russia invaded Ukraine as the aggressor. As Ukraine is not a NATO member, NATO itself is not directly involved in the conflict. Although it might have an interest in the outcome.
How else can he blame Joe Biden and Democrats/Liberals/Progressives?
Some are always going to find ways to pass blame on somebody, deserved or not.
Actually it remains a brilliant move. Where is the Russian push back?
Suddenly Russian pilots who have been accidently dropping bombs on their own territory for two years are hesitant to deploy glide bombs on Russian soils against their Ukranian cousins.
Russian troops surrender by the hundreds rather than fight Ukrainians door to door in Russian towns and cities.
Russians gave up the Gazprom facility without a fight.
But BIDENNNN!!!!!
Yes, that is the question. Where are the Russians? Evidently there weren't very many Russian troops defending the area in Kursk Oblast. And it's also evident that Russian troops are not being withdrawn from the battle lines in Ukraine. In fact, Russian troops are still advancing in Ukraine.
Ukraine has opened another front. As Ukrainians advance, their logistical challenges increase. What are Ukrainians getting for this expenditure of resources? The incursion into Kursk was a reasonable gamble in an attempt to relieve pressure on front line troops fighting inside Ukraine. But that gamble hasn't paid off. At this point, Ukraine is only trapping itself in another quagmire inside Russia.
So far, Joe Biden has shown more concern and expended much more diplomatic effort on behalf of Palestinians than Ukrainians. Biden has expended considerable resources and effort to obtain a ceasefire in Gaza. But Biden has taken steps to ensure the war in Ukraine continues unabated. Biden's foreign policy concerning the Ukrainian war really hasn't been about Ukraine, has it?
Wonder how long before Putin decides that those remaining in Kursk are "acceptable losses" and uses heavier ordinance to simply destroy the entire area?
This is Russia proper that Ukraine has invaded. US/NATO can't bitch (not that they won't try) about Russia doing whatever they feel necessary to repel the invaders.
The next question is will Putin use it as an excuse to use the same tactics in Ukraine?
Russian brass hesitates. Supposedly their best offensive and defensive is 500lb to 6500lb glide bombs, but either the bombs or the pilots are unreliable. Russian pilots have accidently or deliberately dropped over a hundred on Russian territory.
Either the arming devices are faulty or the pilots are too nervous getting anywhere too close to the border. So they shoot and scoot prematurely.
Russia is barely using one of its best weapons against Ukrainian forces in Kursk because it's scared to hit itself, war expert says (msn.com)
Dozens of Russian Glide Bombs Have Fallen on Its Own Territory – Washington Post (msn.com)
Russia and Ukranian drone experts are denying Russian air superiority over Kursk as well as Ukraine.
Russia doctrine/equipment require their helicopters to slow down to about 10 KM per hour to fire their cannons and missiles.
Ukranian drone teams have now surpassed manpad missile teams in downing helos because thee Russians can often outrun or out maneuver a known incoming missile threat whereas the drone operators are lurking at different altitudes and only targeting the rear fuselage or rear rotors depending on the model. Destroying the rear rotor forces the copter to crash land, a sitting duck for the next several drones. Destroying the rear fuselage on a dual rotor attack helicopter ruins the balance also resulting in a very hard landing to be finished off by the next drone team.
Ukraine and Kursk sounded the death knell of the attack helicopter. One nation disagrees (msn.com)
The Russians haven't been able to counter, nor do they seem capable of using the same tactic against Ukraine.
Might be time to pay some attention to Belarus. There is a security pact between Belarus and Russia. Belarus sending troops into Russia to defend Russia would not be an invasion of Ukraine.
Belarus could disrupt the Ukrainian supply lines and force Ukrainian troops into a fighting retreat. And if Ukrainian troops become trapped in Kursk then it would be similar to when their troops were trapped in Mariupol.
Have you looked at a Map of the region? Ukranian Kursk parallels the Ukrainian border and the supply lines are all south to north. Belarus, in order not to invade the well prepared border it shares with Ukraine would have to attack west to east along the Ukrainian border and have the entirety of their right flank and supply lines exposed to Ukraine's missiles, HIMARS and drones. Belarus is bluffing.