Why voters don't care about much else other than inflation
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The unprecedented criminal trial of a former and possibly future president may have ended in the press with a bang. But in the polls, Donald Trump's criminal conviction of 34 counts related to hush money payments has landed with a thud.
Despite a media-constructed narrative that President Joe Biden was on the cusp of a comeback, the general election needle barely moved throughout the Republican's trial in Manhattan. In the first general election poll conducted entirely after a jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records, Morning Consult found that the Democrat lost ground. Whereas Biden led Trump by 1 point in Morning Consult's pre-verdict poll, Trump now leads Biden by 1 point.
The reason? Even though voters report the Manhattan case against Trump as one of the largest news stories of the year, no significant portion of the electorate seems to care about this Trump trial or any of Trump's trials. Most of the electorate doesn't seem to care about anything other than the economy, and even when it comes to the economy, voters mean they care about the worst inflationary crisis in 40 years more than anything else.
More than 3 in 5 voters polled by Pew said inflation is a "very big problem," more than any other problem plaguing the country, with nearly half of all Democrats and 4 in 5 Republicans agreeing. Meanwhile, the majority of both halves of the electorate rate their financial situations "poor" or "only fair," and half of all voters polled by Financial Times -Michigan Ross School of Business blamed Biden's economic policies specifically for the state of the economy.
Biden's deflections that unemployment remains low and the stock market is strong aren't working, if only because they don't reflect the reality of what is harming voters on a day-to-day basis. A CookPoliticalReport swing-state voters survey found that a 54% majority reported that cost of living is the best way to measure an economy's strength, compared to just 13% who cited low unemployment and 6% who said the stock market.
In our aging society with a labor shortage that is fueling inflation, it is price instability that robs voters of the real values of their paychecks. They can tell every single time they compare the price of a gallon of gas or loaf of bread from the beginning of Biden's presidency to now. (According to the consumer price index, their prices have increased by 48% and 29%, respectively.)
Nobody is angrier at this price instability than the generation most removed from the last time we saw inflation incinerate the value of paychecks. A Harvard Institute of Politics poll found that most voters aged 18 to 29 consider inflation our top pressing matter, with two-thirds of young black voters saying inflation is more important than healthcare, jobs, democracy, climate change, and the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Price instability, of course, is the x-factor that explains why Trump is polling better against Biden now than he ever has polled in a general election in either 2020 or 2016. Unlike in 2016, when the possibility of the Trump presidency was an unknown quantity, or in 2020, when a Biden presidency was still untested, we've now lived roughly three years in Trump's America and three years in Biden's. While the sheer scope of the invasion at the southern border and overseas conflagrations may be objectively worse metrics on Biden's presidential scorecard, the soaring cost of, say, car insurance is a more salient issue for ordinary workers than the war in Ukraine or the Rio Grande homeless shelters overran with migrants.
As the Washington Examiner has illustrated countless times, inflation under Biden has resulted in a 5% decrease in the average weekly paycheck and a 19% increase in overall prices to date.
In no issue does Trump hold a larger lead over Biden than the economy: Fox News has him up 13 points over Biden for economic performance, Quinnipiac up 12, and Marquette up a whopping 21 points.
Both Trump and Biden oversaw low unemployment rates, likely a structural consequence of both the birth rate and legal immigration rates falling far too low, and solid stock markets, though Biden's performance has been almost entirely fueled by the Magnificent Seven overcompensating for the rest of the S&P 493 falling mostly flat. But inflation averaged below the Federal Reserve's maximum 2% target throughout Trump's presidency, while under Biden, it has averaged nearly three times that amount.
For all the bombast of payouts to porn stars and wars overseas, this election is coming down to which president made the public poorer. With a difference this stark, even the personal foibles of Trump are being overlooked.
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I am not a fan of using memes to make a point, but I will make an exception as this meme seems to voice the message that Bidenomics is unable to hear clearly from the actual working class in America
I have caught "meme fever" this morning, I can't use my words I must use memes
The inflation rate dropped by 50% between 2022 and 2023.
An average rate of inflation can be calculated for each year:
Your point? It was still lower when Trump was in office.
Pretty sad when you celebrate the inflation rate of 4.1 like it is a victory. I guess disingenuous spin is the only way to make brain dead Biden look good.
The average inflation rate from 1967 through 2023 was 4.1%.
Now you can look at the charts and blame Reagan for three of the highest years on record.
Of course sometimes the brain dead just look at the chart and pine for the good old days when inflation was 0.0 or even -.01 forgetting that that means the economy was in the toilet post Bush and during Obama's early struggles.
.01 during Trump's 2020 wasn't a good sign either, it reflected an economy dead from Covid.
4.1 is a victory when you are coming out of the Global Supply Chain/Covid fuck ups with as high as 9.1% rates in 2022.
Sorry if that doesn't fit your political agenda.
Nice spin, thanks for proving my point. Seems most of America isn't buying but but but supply chain, covid, putin, corp greed................. though.
Cutting the inflation rate in half isn't a good thing?
In 1946 is was over 18%. Our inflation rate, on the global stage isn't very high. Keep watching that reich wing media, they'll tell ya what to think and say.
How many Americans care about the inflation rate in 1946 or in other countries when deciding who to vote for? I hope the dems can put up a better spin than that.
Cutting it in half after trippeling it is nothing to crow about.
Spin baby spin.
Remember what you are dealing with...
Thanks for agreeing they all affected inflation.
Because COVID stopped the economy dead in it's tracks.
We wouldn't let ships from many country's unload their cargoes in LA, hence the beginning of the supply chain issues and inflation.
While the inflation rate was almost zero at one point
so was the amount of paper products like toilet paper and paper towels.
Empty shelves like the Soviet Union.
Yearn for those good old days Greg, yearn baby yearn.
Try reading it again
I read it fine, I just thought the sarc tag was unnecessary
You can never be sure
Did you think so when Reagan cut Carter's inflation from 9.9% to 4.6%?
Mmmm, so if Trump is elected and the inflation rate goes up roughly 9% from it's current level and it falls to a mere 6%, would you consider that a good thing?
I didn't see one but, yeah no sarc tag needed.
Why would it go to 9%? New tariffs, old tariffs reinstated? 25% tariffs?
Whenever the Fed get's it drop to the average it's a good thing.
Yep, are we at the average?...
Reagan actually inherited 13.91% at the inauguration, some of which was caused by his own rhetoric during the election.
Reagan "let it" ramp up to a high of 14.73% and it took him/the FED three more years to bring it back to the 4.10% average for the remainder of his two terms.
By 1984 I believe the feeling was one of relief to have an average in the high 3s, low 4's.
Just like today.
4.1% average from 1967 through 2023
Do you have a link that contains data? Oh wait there is 3.1.....
Walter Mondale on Reagan and inflation, Oct 1884:
“Real interest rates—the real cost of interest—will remain very, very high, and many economists are predicting that we're moving into a period of very slow growth because the economy is tapering off and may be a recession. I get it down to a level below 2 percent of gross national product with a policy that's fair. I've stood up and told the American people that I think it's a real problem, that it can destroy long-term economic growth, and I've told you what I think should be done.”
Just like today.
your welcome.
True but that' appears to be about the interest rates not inflation.
Still,
Just like today.
When gas was .18 per gallon I shrugged
When it went up to .25 I worked a few more hours a week.
When it went up to .67 I got a job that included a car, insurance and gas
I suspect that applies to most people today.
co-vid - supply chain issues - corporate greed
A lot of folks part of the criminal enterprise of an administration of the former 'president' profited greatly on inside knowledge of Co-Vid and its' impact
Indeed...
Do you think that Biden administration push of another round of COVID $1,400 checks as part of the American Rescue Plan, 2021 was inflationary? Hou about the infrastructure increase as inflation was heating up?
so you agree #34, the former 'president' profited from inside knowledge as well as the rest of his criminal enterprise of an administration
progress
Not when it raises 8% it isn't. It's still 3 times higher than when Traitor Joe took office.
Everybody knows that kitchen table issues are the largest issues in an election yet we continue to have many who refuse to acknowledge that simple fact. They will show up on the thread to overemphasize all that the current administration has done without any real depth of context behind their words. It took him months to realize it but even Joe Biden has stopped talking about Bidenomics as that policy has not done well for the average person in America.
People see this problem every time they go to the grocery store. Younger people see it every month when they pay rent. With the average cost for a house going so high and interest rates where they currently are, how many younger people feel the American dream is dead?
When the choice is between two qualified candidates like Bush and Clinton, sure.
"They"? I guess that puts you in the other camp?
Absolutely but I don't think of it as evil or Joes fault any more than it was Reagans fault inflation was 14% in 1980.
We went to the store the other day and as sellers are always loathe to relinquish that higher price, they are giving things away that reflect the lower inflation rates. Buy 4 get 2 free Doritos, buy 3 get 1 free snacks which cost more than a whole grilled chicken recently.
Renters along with everyone else.
Oh the drama. Delayed perhaps but not dead.
Except that's not who we have for this election, but many people will still look at those kitchen table issues (ie, what directly affects them) in deciding who to vote for. If they are unhappy, history and human nature tells us they won't be likely to vote for the incumbent.
As compared to the Bidenestas who swear that Joe is the next best thing since sliced white bread? Yep, then I'm in the other camp cuz I don't like what this administration has done to this country and will not vote for him.
No, it's not evil and I doubt very much that they are even thinking about Reagan when they go shopping. But it is common to blame the person in charge and as been stated several years back, the buck stops with him. Regardless of how much impact Biden has in inflation, he's the one in charge and a lot of people will blame him for it. Basic human nature.
Drama? What a laugh. I could ask that you cut the bullshit but it seems that's all you can reply with. If you re-read that sentence, you will see that I asked how many younger people FEEL that the dream is dead. Not that it is dead. History teaches us that it's all a cycle and eventually salaries will improve enough that this will be the norm and people will once again be able to afford to live.
Not sure how you missed that, I thought all leftists were into feelings.
Once again you failed to enumerate what Joe has "done to this country".
That's a meaningless election time mantra. Heard it all through Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush and Trump.
Except for the past inflation, and the decades of kicking the immigration issues down the road, only to be killed over and over again by political parties or candidates
the usual markers for a successful administration are all there for all to see, the stock market has broken record after record, crime, specifically murder is down nationally, employment is up, unemployment is low, manufacturing here is increased, wages are up. Inflation and prices are dropping.
Young people by definition will always be renters first, that doesn't kill the dream of ownership, it drives it.
Not sure how "you people" get to decide who is a leftist, that humorously reminds me how incensed TiG or Freewill get by being called out as either flaming liberals or whacko conservatives.
SMH
Good job, I think you got most of the party rhetoric in there. You have a nice day.
As well as calling out two members not even involved in the conversations...
Truth!
In this new world of politics we are struggling to survive, a 'leftist' is code for anybody not MAGA/conservative. It's a default position. Address it head-on or just ignore it.
Now that's fucking ironic.....
Not if you don't say why. Up to this point it 's just foul.
True. Just another deflection because he has no answer
And still you haven't answered the question...or explained you own "feelings" yet.
Calling out?
SMH
I fear that is the truth.
So are you addressing it head on or just ignoring it as CB advises?