Evidence of Anthropogenic Global Warming

Via:  TᵢG  •  2 weeks ago  •  24 comments

Evidence of Anthropogenic Global Warming
Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities.

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Critical Thinkers

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Similar to the attempts to counter science on the poisoning effects of lead-based fuel or the health risks of using tobacco products, we have serious forces trying to keep the science of AGW at the 'debate' level.   The idea is to confuse the public with official sounding counter-arguments so that the scientific evidence is interpreted as 'inconclusive'.    

Critical thinkers resolve dilemmas such as this by bypassing the superficial debate and looking at the evidence.

Is Our Planet Warming?


First let's see if global warming is a valid claim - setting aside the anthropogenic (human) element for a moment.    NASA (see seed URL) has a perspicuous visual timeline that allows us to see the warming and cooling across the planet from 1884 to 2017.   Click on the image below to play with the dials and see the worldwide temperature dynamics for yourself.

globaltempimage.png

The above dynamic is also reflected in a conventional chart:

GlobalTemp.png

(All of this data can be downloaded from the webpage.)

Our climate is definitely trending warmer.    

Why is Earth Heating Up?


Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping (greenhouse) gas, which is released through human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels, as well as natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions. 

Worldwide COlevels over time is available to visibly see what is happening.    Click on the image below to investigate this:

CO2levelsimage.jpg

And a conventional chart reflecting the COparts per million since 2006:

CO2.png

And scaling back to see the trend over the past 400 thousand years reconstructed from ice cores.:

CO2ancient.gif


The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives. The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20thcentury and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia.1

The planet is heating up and CO2  levels in the atmosphere is the primary reason.   This is the greenhouse effect:

greenhouse.jpg

Most climate scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming trend is human expansion of the "greenhouse effect"1— warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space.

There are several greenhouse gases involved, but CO2  is the main player.

Carbon dioxide (CO2). A minor but very important component of the atmosphere, carbon dioxide is released through natural processes such as respiration and volcano eruptions and through human activities such as deforestation, land use changes, and burning fossil fuels. Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by more than a third since the Industrial Revolution began. This is the most important long-lived "forcing" of climate change.

Why are COlevels so high (and rising)?

Humans are the Most Likely Cause?



On Earth, human activities are changing the natural greenhouse.  Over the last century the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This happens because the coal or oil burning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2. To a lesser extent, the clearing of land for agriculture, industry, and other human activities has increased concentrations of greenhouse gases.

In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of 1,300 independent scientific experts from countries all over the world under the auspices of the United Nations, concluded there's a more than 95 percent probability that human activities over the past 50 years have warmed our planet.

The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million in the last 150 years. The panel also concluded there's a better than 95 percent probability that human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase in Earth's temperatures over the past 50 years.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change full report:  Summary for Policymakers

A Summary-level Source


The following video offers an easily followed discussion of Global Warming and the likelihood of AGW:

Closing Perspective


It would seem the trend is clear.  The planet is warming and human behavior is a significant contributor.   

We all have heard doomsday prophecies from those who have a political (or financial) agenda to 'push' AGW (for example, Al Gore) and of course the exaggerated projections now come back to discredit the science (even though it was talking heads who pushed this).    Recent studies show that the AGW is bad but not 'Al Gore' level bad.   Let's disregard the hype and not let it discredit good science.

The real questions deal with projecting when the damage will be too great to reverse and what measures we can realistically take to reduce our negative effect on the planet.   There are a lot of unanswered questions, but AGW is certainly real and is an existential threat.

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WallyW
1.1  WallyW  replied to  TiG @1    2 weeks ago

So what can we do about it...assuming this is all the fault of the United States? I see nothing that is practical, affordable, and doable in the foreseeable future. As far as we know now, another Ice Age, even a mini one, might be coming in the not too distant future.

https://www.universetoday.com/39012/milankovitch-cycle/

 
 
TiG
1.1.1  TiG  replied to  WallyW @1.1    2 weeks ago
So what can we do about it...assuming this is all the fault of the United States?

It is not simply the fault of the USA.   This is a worldwide problem.    But we are clever and will no doubt come up with solutions (at least in part).

I see nothing that is practical, affordable, and doable in the foreseeable future.

I think that is the next phase.   If people were to recognize the problem (rather than dismiss it as 'undecided') then there would be more of a cry for action.   Seems to me we need to do a lot of work analyzing what we can do and producing sensible programs.   The knee-jerk reactions are counter-productive.   We need clear proposals which show (via modeling and other analysis) the effect.  We then pick the most effective solutions (being practical) and work to make them successful.

 
 
MrFrost
1.1.2  MrFrost  replied to  WallyW @1.1    2 weeks ago
assuming this is all the fault of the United States?

Um, "GLOBAL", doesn't mean, "just the USA". Every other country on the planet with DAMN few exceptions make efforts to cut back on Co2 emissions. Certainly all the large industrialized nations do. The USA used to, but now we have a president that doesn't give a shit about the environment. The only sizable group of people left on the planet that simply refuses to admit that global warming is a reality.....republicans. And you can bet that if Raygun had said it was a reality? The GOP would be tripping over themselves trying to stop global warming.

.

Here is a free tip... If you  want to know who those 3% of scientists that say global warming is BS? Easy to spot...they are wearing Exxon-Mobil lab coats. 

You can live in denial all you want, the mountains of evidence will prove you wrong all day long. 

What can we DO about it? Stop using fossil fuels as fast as we possibly can. Once it's gone, its gone. Then what? 

We will never ever stop using fossil fuels, but we need to stop using them like it's the only source of energy there is.

.

Fact for you. If you add up all the energy mankind has created...from the first cavemen sparking the first fires to all the nuclear energy...all of it, and add it all up? The sun puts out that much energy every 1/10th of a second. It's also free, requires almost no labor to collect, doesn't trash the environment and it will last at least the next 4 billion years. 

TiG posted factual information. Do yourself a favor and READ it. 

 
 
MrFrost
1.1.3  MrFrost  replied to  WallyW @1.1    2 weeks ago

No one disputes that the Earth warms and cools on it's own. Nothing we can do about that. But we HUMANS can adapt and produce LESS Co2, which we KNOW is a greenhouse gas. The problem is that the environment has changed as much in the last 180 years as it did in the previous 600,000 years. Get it now? 

40 years ago, yea, they were saying that we could enter another ice-age... Know what they stopped saying that? Because that trend has been reversed, no we are going the other way. 

 
 
Gordy327
1.1.4  Gordy327  replied to  WallyW @1.1    2 weeks ago
So what can we do about it...

Take steps to help reduce our impact. Even small changes by many can have a larger impact.

assuming this is all the fault of the United States?

It's not. This involves the whole world. Some countries are worse than others though. But it's best if everyone comes on board to develop and implement solutions.

I see nothing that is practical, affordable, and doable in the foreseeable future.

The first step is to recognize and acknowledge the problem exists. Then maybe a more concentrated effort can be made to develop a solution. Unfortunately, many people are either apathetic towards climate change or outright deny it.

 
 
MrFrost
1.2  MrFrost  replied to  TiG @1    2 weeks ago
The evidence is compelling.

Overwhelming is more accurate my friend. 

 
 
TiG
1.2.1  TiG  replied to  MrFrost @1.2    2 weeks ago

Check out the animated charts I included in the article.   It is an excellent way to help people visualize the dynamics at play.

 
 
MrFrost
1.2.2  MrFrost  replied to  TiG @1.2.1    2 weeks ago

I have, excellent article, thanks for this. Well done. 

And with that, I have to get to bed, i'll check in when I can tomorrow. 

 
 
sandy-2021492
2  sandy-2021492    2 weeks ago

I wonder if the more frequent and more powerful hurricanes we've been seeing possibly due to AGW will finally convince people that we need to start paying attention.  Florence is headed our way, and looks to pack quite the punch.

 
 
TiG
2.1  TiG  replied to  sandy-2021492 @2    2 weeks ago

AGW is now a well-established political issue.  As with abortion, we will typically see people letting their party's position determine their position.   That is, for far too many people, evidence does not matter.   No amount of evidence will matter because that which does not fit the narrative is rejected as a hoax, a fabrication.

Cross your fingers for a trend towards critical thinking - more genuine independents.

I do suspect that people will catch on when they are directly affected on a daily basis.   By then I am afraid it will be too late for mankind to make a difference.

 
 
sandy-2021492
2.1.1  sandy-2021492  replied to  TiG @2.1    2 weeks ago
I do suspect that people will catch on when they are directly affected on a daily basis.

I think that those daily effects right now are too subtle or remote to be motivating.  Yes, summers are hotter than they used to be, but we have AC.  Yes, the glaciers are getting smaller, but not many of us live in Alaska.

I agree.  By the time the issue is inconvenient enough and close enough to home for most of us, the damage will be irreparable.

 
 
Gordy327
2.1.2  Gordy327  replied to  TiG @2.1    2 weeks ago
That is, for far too many people, evidence does not matter.   No amount of evidence will matter because that which does not fit the narrative is rejected as a hoax, a fabrication.

Does it seem like the same people who reject the evidence for climate change also reject evidence for evolution? 

 
 
sandy-2021492
2.1.3  sandy-2021492  replied to  Gordy327 @2.1.2    2 weeks ago

I actually heard a televangelist say that we shouldn't worry about climate change.  Even if it's real, God will take care of it.

 
 
Gordy327
2.1.4  Gordy327  replied to  sandy-2021492 @2.1.3    2 weeks ago
Even if it's real, God will take care of it.

What's taking him so long then? The problem is only getting worse. I've heard some people say the same thing. What a way to avoid all responsibility or remain oblivious to the problem.

 
 
cjcold
2.1.5  cjcold  replied to  TiG @2.1    2 weeks ago

The correct word is anthropogenic. Other than that, nice article.

 
 
TiG
2.1.6  TiG  replied to  cjcold @2.1.5    2 weeks ago

Right you are.  Fixed.  And thanks.

 
 
WallyW
2.2  WallyW  replied to  sandy-2021492 @2    2 weeks ago
I wonder if the more frequent and more powerful hurricanes we've been seeing possibly due to AGW will finally convince people that we need to start paying attention.  Florence is headed our way, and looks to pack quite the punch.

Except they have not been more frequent or powerful. I need to see the records and statistics. I prefer to examine real data about frequency and intensity before I would believe vague generalized comments like "possibly due". I guess it's the old retired scientist in me.

 
 
cjcold
2.2.1  cjcold  replied to  WallyW @2.2    2 weeks ago

Maybe you should go to NOAA and read what they have to say on the subject.

 
 
sandy-2021492
2.2.2  sandy-2021492  replied to  cjcold @2.2.1    2 weeks ago

Thanks, cj.  That was the first link I got in a Google search.  The conclusions, in a nutshell, are that it is uncertain based on data compiled so far whether we will have more Atlantic basin hurricanes, but the ones we do have will likely be more intense, with more precipitation and higher wind speeds causing more damage.  Increased frequency of storms to date is questionable, but we have seen a marked increase in intensity correlating with a rise in sea surface temperatures.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

 
 
cjcold
2.2.3  cjcold  replied to  sandy-2021492 @2.2.2    2 weeks ago

Interesting how there are currently 3 hurricanes lined up back to back in the Atlantic. 

 
 
MrFrost
3  MrFrost    2 weeks ago

In 25-30 years, when the right can no longer deny global warming, they will do what they always do.....blame the left, "well why didn't you say anything about it!!!!??? It's all the lefts fault!!!!". 

SMFH

 
 
Gordy327
3.1  Gordy327  replied to  MrFrost @3    2 weeks ago
they will do what they always do.....blame the left,

Yep: "it's all the democrats/liberals/atheists/immigrants/ect. fault!"

 
 
epistte
3.1.1  epistte  replied to  Gordy327 @3.1    one week ago
Yep: "it's all the democrats/liberals/atheists/immigrants/ect. fault!"

You forgot LGBT people, womens rights and banning school prayer.

 
 
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