Not-Again-Trumpers
By: James Freeman (WSJ)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Many conservative voters have long understood the character flaws of former President Donald Trump. But they remained skeptical that they could find another candidate who is equally effective in defending their interests and values. Now Trump voters seem increasingly willing to consider other options.
Speaking of skepticism, the political polling industry cannot be trusted to measure public opinion with extreme precision. But there seems to be a trend emerging, and not just in opinion surveys.
The Journal’s John McCormick reports :
Republican primary voters have high interest in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a potential 2024 presidential nominee and view him more favorably than they do former President Donald Trump, a new Wall Street Journal poll shows.
In a hypothetical contest between the two, Mr. DeSantis beats Mr. Trump, 52% to 38%, among likely GOP primary voters contemplating a race in which the first nomination votes will be cast in just over a year.
Over at USA Today Susan Page reports :
Republican support for Donald Trump’s presidential bid in 2024 has cratered, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, as the former president is beleaguered by midterm losses and courtroom setbacks.
By 2-1, GOP and GOP-leaning voters now say they want Trump’s policies but a different standard-bearer to carry them. While 31% want the former president to run, 61% prefer some other Republican nominee who would continue the policies Trump has pursued.
They have a name in mind: Two-thirds of Republicans and those inclined to vote Republican want Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president. By double digits, 56% to 33%, they prefer DeSantis over Trump.
“Republicans and conservative independents increasingly want Trumpism without Trump,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
People will argue what Trumpism means. But conservatives went with Mr. Trump because they didn’t trust the Republican establishment to defend them against the depredations of Washington and the cultural assaults of the progressive left. For all his flaws, Mr. Trump delivered important reforms on taxes and regulation and outstanding judicial appointments to protect liberty. Now many of these voters believe they can select a candidate tough enough for the job but without the Trumpian downsides.
Jennifer Agiesta of CNN reports :
There’s little appetite for a 2020 rematch in the coming presidential election, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, as majorities of registered voters within each party say they’d rather see someone new nominated in 2024.
About 6 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want their party to nominate someone other than former President Donald Trump in 2024 (62%), while a similar 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they’d like to see someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of their ticket in the next presidential election.
Unfortunately for Democrats, they seem to be stuck with Mr. Biden. But Republicans can consider different candidates and for now seem drawn to one in particular, as the CNN report notes:
Among those who want someone other than Trump to be the nominee, 47% have a specific alternate candidate in mind, including 38% who singled out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. No other potential nominee was named by more than 1%.
Republican voters in particular may not place much trust in polling results or many of the media outlets that report them. But this column has found that elected officials are often highly calibrated pressure-sensitive instruments for measuring the views of their constituents. Jonathan Martin writes in Politico on the current readings from such instruments:
Just under a month since Donald Trump announced his third consecutive White House bid, some of his loudest advocates are nowhere to be found.
Mr. Martin notes that the former president has picked up the endorsement of just one GOP senator and adds:
In the House, Kevin McCarthy... won’t endorse the man he once placated at every turn. Steve Scalise, McCarthy’s deputy and the most likely fallback speaker, is similarly mute about Trump 2024.
And in the ranks of governors, the one who handed him a likeness of his image on Mount Rushmore, Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota, and another who was vaulted to Fox News stardom by serving in his White House, Gov.-elect Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas, are withholding their support.
The Great Gaze Aversion of 2022 is a reminder that, in politics, what’s not being said can be more revealing than what is.
The collective quiet also underscores how yesterday’s conventional wisdom can turn stale fast. For all the talk about how Republican politicians are scared of Trump, all but one of the party’s senators are dodging his candidacy while most Democratic lawmakers fall in line behind President Joe Biden’s presumed reelection bid.
Some Republican voters may be ambivalent about moving on from Donald Trump while feeling downright gleeful at the possibility of a Biden re-election attempt.
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