Latest Presidential Polls Ring Alarm Bells for Joe Biden
By: Nick Mordowanec (Newsweek)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
By Nick Mordowanec Staff WriterFOLLOW
New polls show Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in key states that could ultimately decide the 2024 presidential election.
Trump faces off against former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley on Saturday in an important primary in her home state that could end the GOP nomination race. Despite multiple legal battles in civil and criminal proceedings, the former president has maintained his strong hold on the Republican Party while Biden's approval ratings continue to falter.
In an Echelon Insights poll of 1,015 likely voters conducted between February 12 and 14, Trump was viewed as favorable by 44 percent of respondents, while 55 percent had an unfavorable view of him. Meanwhile, Biden's favorability was slightly lower, with 39 percent of likely voters viewing him as favorable and 58 percent viewing him as unfavorable.
A Morning Consult poll of 6,321 registered voters conducted between February 17 and 19 shows Trump with a four-point advantage in the hypothetical general election rematch, 45 percent to 41 percent.
Earlier this month, Trump led Biden in three of five national polls, including ones conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, CNN and YouGov. Biden held a 1-point lead in a poll by The Economist.
President Joe Biden is seen in Wilmington, Delaware, on July 14, 2020, and Donald Trump is pictured at the White House on September 27, 2020. Trump is leading Biden in new polls from swing states.President Joe Biden is seen in Wilmington, Delaware, on July 14, 2020, and Donald Trump is pictured at the White House on September 27, 2020. Trump is leading Biden in new polls from swing states.OLIVIER DOULIERY,BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images
Michigan
Trump leads Biden 45 to 41 percent in a new poll of 600 active and likely Michigan voters randomly selected between last Tuesday and Sunday. The survey was conducted by Lansing-based firm EPIC-MRA and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Bernie Porn, the president of EPIC-MRA, told Newsweek on Wednesday that Biden's numbers in the state among independents since a similar poll in November have improved from 17 percent to 31 percent. Trump still leads among independent voters, garnering 38 percent of support.
Biden leads Trump 47 percent to 33 percent among moderate voters, with 20 percent undecided. The president's job rating is 67 percent negative, including 46 percent of respondents who described it as "poor." Just 31 percent expressed positivity.
Trump's legal issues could play a significant role, Porn said, as the poll shows that if the ex-president is convicted of one or more charges before the election, a revote shows a 44 percent tie and Trump's lead among independents dwindling to 1 percentage point, with 29 percent undecided.
Biden has had difficulty regaining ground with potential voters who support a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war. Following the attacks by the Palestinian militant group on Israelis on October 7, an escalating conflict resulting in the deaths of thousands of Palestinians has prompted calls from across the United States and around the world for a ceasefire.
Even some Democrats, including Michigan Representative Rashida Tlaib, the first Palestinian-American member of Congress, are urging members of their own party to vote "uncommitted" rather than support Biden in the state's upcoming primary.
"This is the way you can raise our voices," she said in a video posted on Saturday outside an early voting site in Dearborn, home to one of the nation's largest Arab populations. "Right now, we feel completely neglected and just unseen by our government. If you want us to be louder, then come here and vote uncommitted."
The EPIC-MRA poll shows a 53 percent majority who said Israel should declare a ceasefire to negotiate the release of the remaining hostages and provide humanitarian aid in Gaza, with 27 percent supporting continuing the war to try to find as many hostages as possible and eliminate Hamas.
"Biden can help himself significantly by becoming tougher on Israel and calling for a ceasefire," Porn said. "The other thing Biden must do is have ads showing all of the mental lapses of Trump, which may well be greater than Biden's mental lapses."
Georgia
Trump is also leading Biden by six points in Georgia, 48 percent to 42 percent, according to new polling by Emerson College/The Hill.
When expanded to include third-party candidates such as independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump's lead increases over Biden, 45 percent to 36 percent. Kennedy received 6 percent support, while non-major party nominees Cornel West and Jill Stein each received less than 2 percent. Eleven percent were undecided.
Georgia was arguably the most contentious state in the 2020 election between Biden and Trump due to the slim margin of results, which were litigated in courts and led to a broad investigation by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis into alleged election interference by Trump and those in his inner circle.
The former president and 18 others were indicted last year on charges including racketeering. Recently, Willis has been embroiled in her own scandal due to questions about her relationship with prosecutor Nathan Wade, who she hired to oversee the investigation that will result in a criminal trial.
Pennsylvania
Another Emerson College/The Hill poll released on Tuesday shows Trump leading Biden, 45 percent to 43 percent, in a state that Biden won in 2020. About 12 percent of voters there remain undecided, with the poll showing a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
As in Georgia, Trump's lead grows over the incumbent president when third-party candidates are included among voters' options, increasing to 41.5 percent over Biden's 36.8 percent.
Biden's age, which has become an issue for many voters nationwide based on countless polls, was taken into greater account than Trump's four indictments and yet-to-take-place criminal trials. Biden turns 82 years old about two weeks after the election.
More than 63 percent of voters expressed concern about Biden's age, as opposed to 57 percent who said Trump's legal issues might deter them from voting for the Republican frontrunner.
North Carolina
Trump leads Biden in North Carolina, 47 percent to 44 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Undecided voters comprised 10 percent of respondents in that Emerson College/The Hill poll, though Trump's lead against Biden again increases to 9 percent when Kennedy, West, and Stein are included.
Trump won the state's 15 electoral votes in 2020, narrowly edging Biden by a margin of 49.93 percent to 48.59 percent.
Update 2/21/24, 2:27 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comments from Bernie Porn, president of EPIC-MRA.
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