Donald Trump's Polling Lead Over Joe Biden is Growing - Newsweek
By: Kate Plummer (Newsweek)
uh oh
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Donald Trump's slim lead over Joe Biden in polls ahead of the presidential election is marginally increasing, analysis of polling data has shown.
In March, the former leader and the incumbent president won enough primary races to secure, respectively, the Republican and Democratic nominations in the 2024 presidential election. Polls have so far shown that the results will be tight as the pair are statistically tied in most surveys or enjoying only marginal leads.
However, there are signs Trump may now be gaining ground.
According to election forecasters 270 to Win, Trump is currently leading the national polls on average by just under two points (45.8 percent to Biden's 44 percent) based on the last eight surveys.
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends the NASCAR Cup Series Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 26, 2024 in Concord, North Carolina. The former president's lead over Biden has...Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends the NASCAR Cup Series Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway on May 26, 2024 in Concord, North Carolina. The former president's lead over Biden has marginally increased in the last two months. More Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
Meanwhile, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, the Republican is ahead of his Democratic rival by 1.5 percent as of May 24. This is the largest lead the former president has had since April 2, when he was ahead by the same margin.
In the intervening days and weeks, there have been times Trump's lead on Biden has decreased. On April 23, for instance, he was only ahead by 0.3 percent. Nevertheless, there has been a marginal increase from the beginning of April to the end of May.
This trend is also apparent on RacetotheWH, which also tracks presidential election polling. By their analysis, Trump has a 1.3 percent net lead, the highest it has been since April 1.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Trump and Biden by email outside of business hours to comment on this story. This story will be updated with any responses from either campaign.
Meanwhile, while national polls are interesting, the 2024 presidential election will likely be determined in just a handful of key swing states due to the U.S.'s Electoral College system which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes, based on population. A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.
Indeed, Thomas Gift, who heads the Centre on US Politics at University College London, previously told Newsweek that reading too much into polls was "a fool's errand."
"Polls are so variable at this point that the only consistent insight we can glean from them is that Biden and Trump are neck and neck—not only nationally but in key swing states," he said. "Trying to read too much into any one poll, or even set of polls, five months out from the election is a fool's errand."
The presidential election will take place on November 5.
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The more Biden is seen, the worse his numbers seem to get. He probably should head back to the basement. He had better luck that way.
Every day he's in public (not that often) a clip surfaces demonstrating that he has no business being President.
He’s where live Biden starts disappearing and scripted/recorded Biden shows up. Hollywood like publicists, producers, directors and the works.
Slick propaganda carpet bombing is about to start.
Gird your loins …..
His videos that require 15 jump cuts for a 30 second speech are something.
Editing the transcripts don't help either.
We all know the presidential election will be decided by a handful of battleground states as most states will remain intrenched in their political side. And we also know that polling this far out from the election while interesting is mostly meaningless. But I read this morning something that is interesting, in that Trump is now leading in seven battleground states which almost all went for Biden in 2020.
Leftist pollster Nate Silver is warning the democrats:
Pollster suggests Biden drop out as poll shows top replacement choice (msn.com)
Problem is I don't see how any of those replacements would be any better than Biden. That bench seems incredibly weak.
In other words, they are damned if they do and damned if they do.
I always knew they'd be damned.
It would have to be Harris or the party because racism/sexism if they don’t hand her the nomination and she’s somehow an even worse candidate.
So, they are stuck between a woman who had so little support during the democrat convention, she tossed in the towel before a vote was counted or the man that Special Counsel Robert Hur determined to be imbecilic and therefore couldn't be prosecuted.
I expected election fever to set in about June, this cycle as much as it pains me to say, I am more inclined to leave the section of the ballot for president blank this go around, unless they have a box for " none of the above".
Would be a first for me since I started voting in 1980.
Hopefully the math teacher from Texas gets on your ballot, he is running as Literally anybody else.
He legally changed his name to ‘Literally Anybody Else.’ Now he wants to run for president | CNN Politics
I don't know much about the last 2 but if they are like the first four the dems be screwed. I can't believe anyone of their right mind thinking any of them are presidential material. Oh that's right, the dems are running on the "ain't Trump" platform.
Please, not Whitless.
As much as I despise her as governor of Michigan, the amount of damage she could do as PotUS would be catastrophic.
She would be worse than Brandon at ignoring court rulings and playing dictator.
And tied for second…… Darth Vaders sister and Alfred E Neuman
What, me worry?