Latest poll shows Biden, Trump tied in Virginia, political analyst says it's 'not a swing state'
By: Tyler Englander (WFXRtv)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — New polling shows President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied in Virginia with more than five months till Election Day.
"What does it mean? Not a whole lot, it's May," Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, told 8News.
The Roanoke College poll found that Biden and Trump are tied at 42% among likely voters in Virginia, with 14% saying they plan on voting for a third-party candidate.
"Now, if the polls are still showing this in September, the Biden campaign is in deep trouble," Sabato said. "Because if Trump carries Virginia, that's the end of the game, it's over. That already suggests almost all, if not all, of the swing states are voting for Trump."
Despite that, Sabato said that, while the poll should be worrisome for the Biden campaign, it's just one poll.
"Virginia is not a swing state, that's not to say it could never go Republican. The Governor is Youngkin, he is a Republican, so it can happen. But normally, you would expect Virginia to go Democratic, and until given a lot of proof otherwise, that is where I will stay," Sabato said.
Sabato added that, although 14% of poll's participants said they planned on voting for a third-party candidate, he says that's unlikely that so many people will follow through on that. However, he said he doesn't know if those people are more likely to vote for President Biden or former President Trump.
"As Election Day approaches, most people don't want to throw their vote away," Sabato said. "They have learned enough to know that none of the third-party candidates are going to win. They have to vote between one of the two major parties' candidates."
Sabato added that it would be foolish for either the Biden or Trump campaign to spend a lot of time or money in Virginia. He said those resources would be better spent in more competitive swing states.
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As it gets closer to go time, and after the first debate, this should hold and only increase for Trump
I disagree with Sabato. Virginia has 13 electoral votes, and with such a tight race it might behoove Trump to spend some time there.