Five poll numbers that tell the story of the Democratic convention — and what's coming next
By: NBC News
Just wait................
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Aug. 20, 2024, 10:00 AM UTCBy Kristen Welker and Mark Murray
CHICAGO — A historic switch in the presidential ticket. A shift in the polling. And a still-undefined presidential nominee.
That's the backdrop to this week's Democratic convention, which began Monday with President Joe Biden passing the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris and will end Thursday night with Harris officially accepting her party's presidential nomination.
These five numbers help set the stage for this week's events — and for the rest of the 2024 campaign once the conventions are over.
(1) 4 points
That's Harris' lead over Republican Donald Trump in the latest national Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll, 49% to 45% among registered voters.
While the result is within the poll's margin of error, it's consistent with other national and battleground polling showing her with a slight edge over Trump.
And it's a significant change from a month ago when Biden was still in the race. In July's Washington Post/ABC poll, Biden and Trump were tied at 46%.
(2) 81%
That's the share of Democratic voters who say they're satisfied with Harris as the party's presidential nominee, versus 15% who say they would have preferred someone else, according to a recent national CNBC poll.
It's a staggering shift in enthusiasm from July's NBC News poll, when just 33% of Democrats said they were satisfied with Biden as the nominee, compared with 62% who wanted someone else.
(3) 9 points
That's Harris' deficit on the economy against Trump, according to that WaPo/ABC poll. In that survey, 46% of voters say they trust Trump more on the economy, versus 37% who trust Harris more.
Trump's advantage on the economy is consistent with what other polls have shown, although a Financial Times poll found the two candidates essentially even on the issue.
So Harris is trailing on an issue that voters typically say is the most important one facing the country in 2024. But it's also less than half the size of Biden's deficit against Trump on the economy when NBC News' poll tested them on the issue six months ago.
This comes as Harris has tried to put more meat on the bone of her economic platform, between her speech on Friday laying out plans to address the cost of food, housing, medicine and child care if elected and the news Monday that she supports raising the corporate tax rate to 28%.
(4) 64%
That's the percentage of voters who say they know what Harris stands for, per a recent CBS News/YouGov poll.
That's a majority of voters, but it's smaller than the 86% of voters who say they know what Trump stands for.
That illustrates one of the Democrats' top goals for this convention: clearly define their party's presidential nominee to the public, as the Republicans race to define her on their terms.
(5) 45%
Relatedly, that's the share of likely voters in the New York Times/Siena College polling of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina who say Harris is too liberal or too progressive.
It's a narrow plurality of the total respondents, compared to 6% who say she's not liberal/progressive enough, and 43% who say she's not too far in either direction.
That's compared with 35% of likely voters who believe Trump is too conservative, 9% who say he's not conservative enough and 47% who say he's not too far in either way.
So in the race to define Harris, more voters — right now — believe that the Democratic nominee is too liberal than believe that the Republican nominee is too conservative.
Can Harris and the convention change that perception? This week will help answer that question — and perhaps determine whether she can maintain her momentum in the homestretch of the campaign.
Kristen Welker
Kristen Welker is the moderator of "Meet the Press."
Mark Murray
Mark Murray is a senior political editor at NBC News.
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Pretty stiff hills there. She has yet to be exposed to her true colors and plans going forward save sweeping generalizations. It's only been a month and we have some 80 days to go. Will they put her in the basement like they did Joe in 2020? Doubtful. Will she speak without a teleprompter or already revealed questions? Doubtful. Will she speak off the cuff at ALL I guess is the real question? All................doubtful.
hat's the percentage of voters who say they know what Harris stands for, per a recent CBS News/YouGov poll.
Yet these same people disliked Harris at historical levels and nothing has changed other than the media telling the ill informed to like her.
A number of folks here would do well to lookup the history of primaries instead of using it as some Whack-a-Mole nonsense.
Yes I agree. Primaries shmimaries
Republicans whining about Harris not being in Democrat primary, yet OK with Trump never debating during GOP primary? Trump sat GOP primary out, too scared to debate other candidates. Republicans should look at their own primary before whining about Democrat primary.
Undecided and undeclared voters will break 80/20 for Harris Walz!
That would be nice. Hard to say. But I will say that 100% of them should support Harris-Walz.
My prediction is Harris-Walz wins by over 10,000,000 votes...
Which should be easy to remember if I'm proved to be wrong!
An electoral college prediction would be much more meaningful.
The Keystone state will be the key.
I see no basis for making predictions given today's electorate. Keep in mind that almost half of the electorate is going to vote for Trump. That is so irrational IMO that I am hesitant to predict anything specific about the electorate.
However, I do expect Harris-Walz to win.
I predict Harris - Walz will win all the swing states Biden did plus North Carolina and possibly more if trends continue...
(4) 64%
That's the percentage of voters who say they know what Harris stands for, per a recent CBS News/YouGov poll.
That's a majority of voters, but it's smaller than the 86% of voters who say they know what Trump stands for.
Trump’s biggest problem is when voters DO get what he stands for. A big number for Trump in this category is helpful for Harris.