Five poll numbers that tell the story of the Democratic convention — and what's coming next
By: NBC News
Just wait................
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Aug. 20, 2024, 10:00 AM UTCBy Kristen Welker and Mark Murray
CHICAGO — A historic switch in the presidential ticket. A shift in the polling. And a still-undefined presidential nominee.
That's the backdrop to this week's Democratic convention, which began Monday with President Joe Biden passing the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris and will end Thursday night with Harris officially accepting her party's presidential nomination.
These five numbers help set the stage for this week's events — and for the rest of the 2024 campaign once the conventions are over.
(1) 4 points
That's Harris' lead over Republican Donald Trump in the latest national Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll, 49% to 45% among registered voters.
While the result is within the poll's margin of error, it's consistent with other national and battleground polling showing her with a slight edge over Trump.
And it's a significant change from a month ago when Biden was still in the race. In July's Washington Post/ABC poll, Biden and Trump were tied at 46%.
(2) 81%
That's the share of Democratic voters who say they're satisfied with Harris as the party's presidential nominee, versus 15% who say they would have preferred someone else, according to a recent national CNBC poll.
It's a staggering shift in enthusiasm from July's NBC News poll, when just 33% of Democrats said they were satisfied with Biden as the nominee, compared with 62% who wanted someone else.
(3) 9 points
That's Harris' deficit on the economy against Trump, according to that WaPo/ABC poll. In that survey, 46% of voters say they trust Trump more on the economy, versus 37% who trust Harris more.
Trump's advantage on the economy is consistent with what other polls have shown, although a Financial Times poll found the two candidates essentially even on the issue.
So Harris is trailing on an issue that voters typically say is the most important one facing the country in 2024. But it's also less than half the size of Biden's deficit against Trump on the economy when NBC News' poll tested them on the issue six months ago.
This comes as Harris has tried to put more meat on the bone of her economic platform, between her speech on Friday laying out plans to address the cost of food, housing, medicine and child care if elected and the news Monday that she supports raising the corporate tax rate to 28%.
(4) 64%
That's the percentage of voters who say they know what Harris stands for, per a recent CBS News/YouGov poll.
That's a majority of voters, but it's smaller than the 86% of voters who say they know what Trump stands for.
That illustrates one of the Democrats' top goals for this convention: clearly define their party's presidential nominee to the public, as the Republicans race to define her on their terms.
(5) 45%
Relatedly, that's the share of likely voters in the New York Times/Siena College polling of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina who say Harris is too liberal or too progressive.
It's a narrow plurality of the total respondents, compared to 6% who say she's not liberal/progressive enough, and 43% who say she's not too far in either direction.
That's compared with 35% of likely voters who believe Trump is too conservative, 9% who say he's not conservative enough and 47% who say he's not too far in either way.
So in the race to define Harris, more voters — right now — believe that the Democratic nominee is too liberal than believe that the Republican nominee is too conservative.
Can Harris and the convention change that perception? This week will help answer that question — and perhaps determine whether she can maintain her momentum in the homestretch of the campaign.
Kristen Welker
Kristen Welker is the moderator of "Meet the Press."
Mark Murray
Mark Murray is a senior political editor at NBC News.
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Pretty stiff hills there. She has yet to be exposed to her true colors and plans going forward save sweeping generalizations. It's only been a month and we have some 80 days to go. Will they put her in the basement like they did Joe in 2020? Doubtful. Will she speak without a teleprompter or already revealed questions? Doubtful. Will she speak off the cuff at ALL I guess is the real question? All................doubtful.
hat's the percentage of voters who say they know what Harris stands for, per a recent CBS News/YouGov poll.
Yet these same people disliked Harris at historical levels and nothing has changed other than the media telling the ill informed to like her.
What an amazing turnaround for the VP without doing anything at all.
Looks to me like 81% of Democrats are gullible fools whose only concern for the country is "Anyone But Trump".
Does it even occur to you that Harris-Walz is a responsible, youthful, energetic, positive presidential team that is far better for this nation than an old, negative, vindictive, narcissist, loose-cannon, traitorous clown who does not care about anyone other than himself?
In a binary choice, Harris-Walz is the obvious way to go.
Not everyone holds them up as heroes like you do.
But I do appreciate you not responding to what I wrote.
Yep, vote for the ticket that got no votes to get there.
Outstanding job on representative democracy there Democrat party.
Outstanding!
And didn't even make it to a primary. But she checked all but one of the boxes.
Maybe the alcoholic idiot past might have. But I gave up day drinking years ago and my TBI isn't severe enough to hinder my critical thinking skills.
I do not hold them as 'heroes'. I hold them as: "responsible, youthful, energetic, positive presidential team". Read my comment, it was clear.
A bullshit line given I rebutted your half-baked conclusion that the Ds have no good reason to support Harris-Walz other than not being Trump.
Go with that awesome, hard-hitting logic, Sparty. I am sure the electorate will see things your way.
Do you actually believe people would vote for Trump rather than Harris merely because the Ds could not conduct a second primary?
Those who were going to vote for Biden are not going to switch and vote for Trump or sit out the election. But some who were voting for Trump could indeed reconsider given the old man problem of the Ds is no longer a problem and that the Ds now have youth and energy while the Rs have the oldest presidential nominee in USA history.
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Uh, sure, okay.
I find it interesting that "Not Trump" seems 5o ve the determinate factor for your support for Harris, which appears unwarranted based on performance.
Show us your critical thinking skills. Make an argument for why it is in the best interest of the USA to give the powers of the presidency to an old curmudgeon narcissist who campaigns on fear and despair with rambling and sometimes incoherent speeches. Who is negative and vindictive. Who has demonstrated repeatedly that he does not care about the people, but rather what is good for himself. Who is the most prolific liar of our times.
What is the critical thinking that concludes it best to elevate a clown to PotUS who would then be an embarrassing face and voice for the USA?
What critical thinking rewards a traitor — the only PotUS in US history to use fraud, coercion, lying, and incitement in an attempt to steal a US presidential election?
The lack of a second primary is and will continue to be a non issue for those who would consider voting for Harris-Walz. The only people who will care are Trump supporters and they clearly are voting for Trump regardless of any factors on the D side.
Add this to your list of other feeble negatives that will not factor into the 2024 decision.
Lets look at it this way, there is no way in hell I'm going to vote for a "candidate"
Or a VP "candidate" that
We've been hearing that for 8 years now. Still waiting on that proof. But it's not like I said I support him in any way. But I've already seen how you treat those who don't support either. So do me a favor and forgo regurgitating all that nonsense.
Hey, the money holders and authoritarian decided Harris was a better candidate than Biden, voters be DAMNED!
All they are doing is trying to polish another turd.
You will not vote for Harris, but you will vote for an old curmudgeon narcissist who campaigns on fear and despair with rambling and sometimes incoherent speeches. Who is negative and vindictive. Who has demonstrated repeatedly that he does not care about the people, but rather what is good for himself. Who is the most prolific liar of our times.
You will vote to elevate a clown to PotUS who would then be an embarrassing face and voice for the USA.
You will vote for a traitor — the only PotUS in US history to use fraud, coercion, lying, and incitement in an attempt to steal a US presidential election.
And of course the denial. No matter what we know of Trump your argument is that none of it has been proven. This is the epitome of the kick the can argument. If Trump loses the election and his trials then proceed to conviction, I predict you will still claim that nothing has been proven.
Frankly, I am surprised that anyone, at this point, is still trying to claim that Trump has done nothing wrong.
polishing and elevated status as a viable, worthy candidate are 2 different things but don't expect the sycophants to be able to tell the difference.
When someone is saying they are weird, listen and believe them...
And yet, Democrats are so scared of him that they will try to keep him off ballots.
Nothing screams "democracy" more than that, right?
SMMFH
AGAIN. I don't support either candidate. I've NEVER said who I was voting for. Don't know why that is so hard for you to grasp. Now, spare me the nonsense circular talking points.
Right on!
So many GOP supporters who are not going to vote for Trump. Lots of defense and excuse making but no votes. How peculiar.
Amazing how often asking for or pointing out things is always considered a defense of Trump.
Is that supposed to mean something? Is that supposed to negate Walz still sitting on his ass allowing it to happen?
It's pretty dishonest to edit a quote.
Where did I state I'm a GOP supporter?
Calling out the idiocy lf the Democrats isn't a defense of any kind. It just goes against what you want others to think.
It looks like the criteria is very simple:
If you aren't on the "I Hate Trump" bandwagon and ragging on him incessantly, then ergo, you are a Trump supporter!
Really amazing!
It is, but then who did I quote?
You quoted me then edited it.
Your comments are typically in defense of Trump and the GOP and consistently, harshly against the Ds.
So not only are you declaring that in spite of all your defense of Trump that you will not vote for him, you now claim (implicitly) that you are not even a supporter of the GOP.
Hint: claims are largely irrelevant if they are contradicted by a long (multiyear) comment history in a rather small forum.
It's called paving the road to denialism.
Nah, I only I 'quoted' what was necessary, the rest which is in quotation marks is a verbatim copy of one of Vic's missives. Get a grip, reality is fleeting at the best of times.
So, no, I didn't say I was a GOP supporter. That's just something you THINK / made up. Being harsh on the "Ds"...I'm usually harsh toward stupidity masquerading as intelligence.
You do not have to express a particular sequence of English words for people to know your position.
Anyone, not just you, who is consistently trashing Harris, Biden, and the Ds and consistently defending Trump has expressed via comments that they prefer Trump as PotUS over Harris.
A specific phrase is not required.
So you are trying to justify your incorrect opinion / assumption because....
Logic?
As yours is harshly critical of Trump and the GOP and mostly in defense of democrats and Harris/Walz, but claim to be ‘independent’.
Someone I heard
was real famous once said, and I quote,
‘Hint: claims are largely irrelevant if they are contradicted by a long (multiyear) comment history in a rather small forum’
I have explained this to you many times. What is the mental block here?
A political independent is someone who does not simply accept the positions of a political party but rather draws conclusions based on an objective analysis of the facts.
What you are seeing is criticism of the worst nominee for a major political party in our history. So yes I am harshly critical of Trump and harshly critical of the GOP since it has turned into a cult.
What you do not seem to comprehend is that I have been also pushing for the GOP to break free of Trump and start healing. My argument is that in a two-party system we need both parties to be on par to effect a partisan check and balance. One party with free reign would be bad for the nation.
If Trump were a D and the D party had wrapped itself around Trump in a cultish fashion, my comments would be identical. The difference is that the R partisans like yourself would be praising my criticism of Trump and the Ds.
One thing I have concluded is that blind partisans seem to be incapable of even believing that political independents exist. They cannot imagine how someone could be politically active and NOT be tied to and sycophantically supporting a political party.
MAGA ideology and philosophy requires that everyone who opposes trumpism has to be to be dragged down to his level, or else it is not "fair'.
That is fucking hilarious.
The only thing we have seen that pertains to your ‘logic’ is the left trying to totally destroy anyone that dares stray from the plantation. Ask any black person that has praised Trump and they can probably tell you some stories on how the shitty left treated them.
(deleted)
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That's a pretty idiotic way to look at things especially when you compare their records.
I know, but tge fear and hatred of Trump runs deep.
It's almost hilarious how much they fear the ONE person.
Some are simply obsessed with him, sadly.
None more so than those who vote for him.
That is an incredibly weak argument when almost all of Democrats' campaigns against Trump in 2020 and 2024 is that their candidate isn't Trump.
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Does anyone else think it is highly suspect and rather stupid that so many support Harris now after having accomplished, well, nothing, really, as VP?
This is the same woman who Democrats rejected so soundly she couldn't even make it to the first primary when she ran last.
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The next PotUS will either be Harris or Trump. Short of an extraordinary event, that is reality. Face it.
So which of those two is best for the nation? That is what responsible people will consider. Given the stark contrast between these two camps, it is clearly bullshit for someone to claim that they do not see a difference and thus do not care which one is elected.
You clearly would prefer Trump over Harris based on your comments. Others prefer Harris and I can offer a few reasons why:
Trump, in contrast, is a old curmudgeon. He campaigns on fear and despair. He is negative and vindictive. He has demonstrated repeatedly that he does not care about the people, but rather what is good for himself. His speeches are rambling and at times incoherent. He is the most prolific liar of our times and nobody should believe a word he says. He is a clown who would be an embarrassing face and voice for the USA.
On top of that, he is a traitor given he is the only PotUS in US history to use fraud, coercion, lying, and incitement in an attempt to steal a US presidential election.
Giving this clown the powers of the presidency is IMO the epitome of irrational, irresponsible, unpatriotic reasoning.
You missed a few bullet points
Are you seriously trying to argue that your list is significant compared to the list of negatives on Trump??
I sure wish you would respond to my actual words.
Then all we could ever do is simply quote you. Any rebuttal would necessarily be our own words and you would (as you have been doing) complain that we did not use your words.
Your deflection tactic is obvious. Stand up and make an argument rather than post platitudes.
Or respond appropriately to what I write.
Your call of deflection is weak sauce
I wouldn’t have posted it if I didn’t think it was serious and the worst part is how far in denial some are about the truth. All because they cornered themselves with Biden in the first place in 2020.
The funny part is if Republicans had tried this little no primary gambit with Trump the left would be going apeshit right now. Zero doubt about it.
Zero
Nobody cares.
Telling ….
That doesn't fit the narrative of the conversation going on in their heads.
[deleted][✘]
[✘] They have their response already typed out ready to his "Post" before they even finished reading what you wrote. And, given it's coming from the left, it's going to be about Trump.
This is done because they have no real defense of Biden or Harris. So to make up for that, they go on the attack. Now the fact that you don't support who they are attacking, confounds them even more so they lash out with their abstract opinions and assumptions.
A number of folks here would do well to lookup the history of primaries instead of using it as some Whack-a-Mole nonsense.
Yes I agree. Primaries shmimaries
Republicans whining about Harris not being in Democrat primary, yet OK with Trump never debating during GOP primary? Trump sat GOP primary out, too scared to debate other candidates. Republicans should look at their own primary before whining about Democrat primary.
One party stuck with the person who won the most primary votes, while one party jettisoned the candidate the people preferred.
As article states majority of Democrats (81%) are OK with Harris, that is who "the people prefer".
And it seems that the only people who are concerned with this are Trump supporters.
Who cares? Harris got every convention vote. There was not even one vote for a Favorite Son or Daughter! Not one abstination!
Sour Grapes Huh?
I think the word you are looking for is abstention.
And ZERO from the people. So much for preserving / protecting democracy.
Harris will get ten million more votes than Trump Nov 5th!
clearly incorrect.
Not in the least, to me.
I apologize my facts were so inconvenient to Democrats.
What does that have to do with her not receiving a single vote from the people to be the candidate?
Why apologize for facts hurting their feelings?
Because obviously I struck a tender nerve.
They'll get over it.
Sure they will, just like they got over Trump!
Undecided and undeclared voters will break 80/20 for Harris Walz!
That would be nice. Hard to say. But I will say that 100% of them should support Harris-Walz.
My prediction is Harris-Walz wins by over 10,000,000 votes...
Which should be easy to remember if I'm proved to be wrong!
An electoral college prediction would be much more meaningful.
The Keystone state will be the key.
I see no basis for making predictions given today's electorate. Keep in mind that almost half of the electorate is going to vote for Trump. That is so irrational IMO that I am hesitant to predict anything specific about the electorate.
However, I do expect Harris-Walz to win.
I predict Harris - Walz will win all the swing states Biden did plus North Carolina and possibly more if trends continue...
Doubtful enough people are undecided this late to swing the election.
As in 2020 undecided and undeclared will break Democratic!
The inevitable result is set. Will Harris win by 10 to 15 million?
The very notion that there are large enough 'undecided' to sway the election is preposterous.
(4) 64%
That's the percentage of voters who say they know what Harris stands for, per a recent CBS News/YouGov poll.
That's a majority of voters, but it's smaller than the 86% of voters who say they know what Trump stands for.
Trump’s biggest problem is when voters DO get what he stands for. A big number for Trump in this category is helpful for Harris.