Democrats brace for a crack in Blue Wall and signs of North Carolina slipping
By: NBC News
Trouble in paradise?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Oct. 22, 2024, 9:00 AM UTC / Updated Oct. 22, 2024, 12:40 PM UTCBy Natasha Korecki, Carol E. Lee and Monica Alba
The "blue wall" states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have paved the path to the White House for the last two Democratic presidents.
But with just 14 days until the Nov. 5 election, there are concerns within Kamala Harris' campaign about whether the vice president can claim all three states.
Recent discussions have centered on the possibility of an anomaly happening this year with just part of the blue wall breaking its way. The conversations have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin "fall" to former President Donald Trump while the two other states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign's strategy.
Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would not reach the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another battleground state or possibly two.
"There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off," said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan. Two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy — who, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly — also underscored deep concern about Michigan. Those people still believe that all the states are close and that there are alternative routes to victory.
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A Harris campaign spokesperson pushed back against the notion about deep concerns over Michigan, pointing to recent public polling. A Detroit News poll conducted Oct. 1-4 found Harris, who was campaigning in Michigan on Monday, holding a slight lead in the state, as did a Washington Post poll on Monday.
"We absolutely are competing to win Michigan," Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said, noting Harris' presence there this week. "We think we will win Michigan."
She added that she believes they will also win Wisconsin and saw no signs of it slipping.
But also potentially troubling for Democrats: What Harris' campaign had thought was one of its best insurance possibilities may also be in peril. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers in interviews pointed to the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada as a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes.
While North Carolina is still in the campaign's sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said.
"Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away," the Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
Hurricane Helene's destruction — and the rampant disinformation that followed it — are factors that could weigh against Harris in North Carolina, these people said. One of the sources also pointed to a less competitive race for governor as a potential factor. A series of scandals upended Republican candidate Mark Robinson's campaign, putting him far behind Democrat Josh Stein in polling; those developments have meant less local investment and intensity on the ground, that person said.
After President Joe Biden stepped aside from seeking the nomination and endorsed Harris on July 21, Democrats' map expanded to include the six battleground states that Biden won in 2020 — the three blue wall states, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — plus North Carolina. While the campaign had built infrastructure in those states under Biden, his stubbornly low ratings on the economy and immigration really kept only the three blue wall states in play. That changed when Harris entered the race. Suddenly, enthusiasm, fundraising and volunteer interest soared, and the positive polling followed.
But as the Nov. 5 election has neared, Harris and Trump have been deadlocked in a margin-of-error contest.
The Harris campaign has said all along that it has run a seven-state battleground strategy, sinking its vast resources into organization, building infrastructure in rural areas and outpacing Republicans in ad spending.
"I don't see a blue wall path or a Sun Belt path or a Southern path. I see seven states that are as close as it gets that will all be decided by margins on the ground," Harris battleground state director Dan Kanninen said in a recent interview. "And so we built an operation that can win close races on the ground, expecting that. And truthfully, one of the seven has as good a chance as any other to be the tipping-point state."
Since Harris' entry, the campaign has looked at the blue wall states as central to her election path, but it has also considered states like Nevada as essential in bulking up a win even if Democrats uphold the blue wall, in case legal challenges arise, according to three campaign officials.
In the remaining states of Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, the election remains close or Harris is down, according to public polling. Surveys have found Trump leading in Arizona and Georgia and Harris slightly up in Nevada.
Trump has had his own struggles. Reports of a troubled on-the-ground operation in swing states are mounting. He has lagged Harris in fundraising, which raises questions about whether he will have the resources to get low-propensity voters to the polls should the contest remain tight. On Monday, he was visiting North Carolina, a sign that his campaign does not see it as a lock even though it has not gone blue since 2008. He also took time there to repeat misinformation about Hurricane Helene, something debunked by members of his own party.
The blue wall states have been pivotal to elect presidents in the last several elections. Barack Obama claimed them in his 2008 and 2012 victories. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the trio to Trump. She is still criticized in Wisconsin for skipping the state in the general election that year. Biden restored the blue wall for Democrats in 2020.
In each of those cases, the three states went in the same direction to eventually boost the victor. Several sources in Harris' camp say that this year, each has such unique economic and electoral traits that they could ultimately tip in different directions.
The last time the blue wall did not vote in unison was in 1988, when Michael Dukakis won Wisconsin while losing Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who headed electoral strategy for Democratic presidential nominees in 1988, 2000 and 2004, said it would be historically unusual for the blue wall states to split from one another, though he did not rule it out. Devine said Harris had the edge in the states, having been on the winning ticket in 2020.
"Those three, the blue wall states, almost always stay together, but this year it's an extraordinarily tight race. When you're that close it's easy for the state to go either way. It could happen this year," he said. "I think it's more likely that they will do what they have done in cycle after cycle. They will go one way or another, in unison. They are tied together historically with their voting behavior."
In Michigan, a large Arab and Muslim population has railed against the Biden administration's handling of the Israeli-Gaza war, and elected Democrats there for months have issued warning signs about the presidential race. Late last month, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a candidate for the Senate, warned that Harris was underwater in the state.
Still, recent Democratic electoral success and some preliminary early voting in Michigan offer Harris hope of pulling it off. Two years ago, the party flipped the Legislature to give Democrats a trifecta for the first time in 40 years. In April, Democrats again won special elections to secure the chamber majority. Strong organization in the state on top of positive numbers with women has kept it close.
In Wisconsin, where Biden won by just over 20,000 votes in 2020, there is concern among Democrats about white male voters and rural counties that have traditionally come out big for Trump. However, the liberal bastion of Dane County has ultimately come through for Democrats, and the so-called WOW counties, the voter-rich trio of counties outside Milwaukee, traditionally includes a high proportion of female voters whom Harris' team sees as supportive. And organizers, including union members supportive of Harris, have crisscrossed the state, including in rural counties, canvassing in a way that dwarfs Trump's organization.
If Harris loses any of the blue wall states, it will not be because of a lack of visits. She has raced across the Rust Belt, putting the greatest emphasis on Pennsylvania. Harris has visited North Carolina twice so far this month, once on a post-hurricane official visit and a second time in a campaign capacity. She was last in the state on Oct. 13. And vice presidential candidate Tim Walz and former presidents Obama and Bill Clinton have all been dispatched to North Carolina, a sign that Democrats still see a close contest.
Democratic pollster Matt Baretto, who has conducted surveys for the Harris camp, said the race is far too close to discount any of the states for Harris and noted that in 2022, Republicans — and much of the media — predicted a red wave that never materialized.
"Right now, Harris has an advantage in all three states — not a huge advantage — we know the election is going to be close. It's going to be 1 or 2 percent in any of these states," Baretto said. But he contended that enthusiasm was still behind Harris. "She's drawing huge crowds and huge volunteer bases. … She looks in a strong position. [But] there's still work to be done."
Natasha Korecki
Natasha Korecki is a senior national political reporter for NBC News.
Carol E. Lee
Carol E. Lee is the Washington managing editor.
Monica Alba
Monica Alba is a White House correspondent for NBC News.
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Dontcha just love crystal balls?
I bet Robinson gets your vote for governor.
Definitely seem to be heading to an election where ten thousand votes in one of those states may swing it. The election expert on CNN said this is the closest the polls (states, the ones that matter) have been this close to the election.
"But with just 14 days until the Nov. 5 election, there are concerns within Kamala Harris' campaign about whether the vice president can claim all three states."
They are obviously afraid. The "end of democracy" and "unfit" rhetoric have reached a fever pitch
They sure act like it.
BTW many of the democrats running for the Senate in those states are now running campaign ads showing when they supported President Trump.