Why The Left Has Been So Wrong About The Trump Boom
Time magazine's cover story for the week of Nov. 6 is a classic. It blares: "The Wrecking Crew: How Trump's Cabinet Is Dismantling Government As We Know It." The New York Times ran a lead editorial complaining that team Trump is shrinking the regulatory state at an "unprecedented" pace.
Meanwhile, last week the stock market raced to new all-time highs; we had another blockbuster jobs report with another fall in the unemployment rate; and housing sales soared to their highest level in a decade.
Are the editors at Time and the Times so ideologically blinded that they are incapable of connecting the dots?
The U.S. economic revival of 3% growth has already defied the predictions of almost every Donald Trump critic. I vividly remember debating Hillary Clinton's economic gurus during the campaign: They accused Trump and advisors such as myself of "lying" when we said that pro-growth policies would speed up economic growth to 3 to 4%.
Jason Furman, who chaired the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama, told reporters earlier this year that the chances of reaching 3% growth over a decade were about 1 in 25 — which is what many political experts said was Trump's chance of winning the election. Another Obama economist, Alan Krueger, called the 3% growth forecast "extremely rosy."
Larry Summers, a top economic advisor to Obama, questioned the "standards of integrity" of the Trump economic team's forecast for 3% (or more) growth. "I do not see how any examination of U.S. history could possibly support the Trump forecast as a reasonable expectation," he wrote in The Washington Post.
Congress weighed in, too. "This budget relies on absurd economic projections and pretend revenues that no credible economist would validate," Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., announced at a House budget hearing.
The sharp-penned Paul Krugman of The New York Times declared Trump's growth forecast an act of "economic arrogance." He said that the productivity improvement necessary for faster growth was as likely as "driverless flying cars" arriving "en masse."
Admittedly, we shouldn't read too much into six months of very good economic data (with 3% growth) or the booming stock market. These trends can always reverse course quickly. Trump's more restrictive policies on trade and immigration could harm growth potential.
But so far the Trump haters have missed the call on the economy's trajectory. Doubly ironic is that the same Obama-era economists who are trashing Trump's increasingly realistic forecast of 3% growth are the ones who predicted 4% growth from the Obama budgets. Obama never came anywhere near 4% growth, and at the end of his second term, the economy grew at a pitiful 1.6%.
Under Obama, free enterprise and pro-business policies were thrown out the window. What was delivered was the weakest recovery from a recession since World War II, with a meager 2.2% average growth rate. Middle America felt it, which is why Trump won these forgotten Americans.
One reason that economist Larry Kudlow and I and others assured Donald Trump that 3 to 4% growth was achievable was that Trump could capitalize on the underperformance of the Obama years. Under Obama, business investment fell almost two-thirds below the long-term trend line — thanks to higher taxes on investment. Now, partly in anticipation of the tax cut, business spending keeps climbing.
Maybe the liberal economists and their shills in the media should show some humility. They should acknowledge they were dead wrong about how much Obamanomics was going to grow the economy and about how Trumponomics would crash the economy and the stock market. Or better yet, maybe the rest of us should all just stop listening to them. https://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/why-the-left-has-been-so-wrong-about-the-trump-boom/
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No I think Trump supporters are so delusional that it's blinding them to facts!
A blockbuster job report?! How is losing 33,000 jobs in Sept, then gaining 18,000 jobs last month a blockbuster report?! Compared to last years report which added 161,000 jobs, this report sucks! All it did was keep the pace Obama set 84 months ago! Trump has done nothing to stimulate the economy for job growth so that just shows that the economy was already good when he took office!
With every forecaster stating the damage from all the hurricanes may have inflated the data, but data from before the hurricane shows that home sales slipped by 5%
Newsflash, Trump hasn't even been in office a year yet, he has no budget or policy in place to effect the GDP, so until that happens this growth is Obama's and btw Obama also had a 3% GDP the second quarter of last year as well.....lets talk about Trump defying predictions say Nov 1st 2018
I will give you this.....it is a little early to really determine who or what is responsible for the economic gains under the Trump Admin.
However, if this would have happened under the Obama Admin in the same circumstances......the left would be going wild bragging about it......Tell me I'm wrong with a straight face......
It DID happen under the Obama Administration but the Conservative would say, 'IT'S HAPPENING TOO SLOWLY!'. Now, the same kind of growth is viewed by those same Conservatives as the 'speed up of economic growth'. The pretense that economic growth suddenly started in January 2018 is disingenuous and an attempt to re-write history.
You are dead wrong (straight face and all) 73 months of uninterrupted growth and I never saw the left going wild about it, was it a source of pride, of course as it would be for trump. I really don't expect that he will see his full term to completion never mind have it deemed successful. Do you remember that the republicans vowed on inauguration day to thwart Obama at every step? Those "circumstances were blatantly trotted out with pride so his "circumstances" were even more difficult, remember the economic straights he inherited, trump waltzed into wonderland by comparison.
You are dead wrong (straight face and all) 73 months of uninterrupted growth and I never saw the left going wild about it,
I respectfully disagree. We must have different opinions on what "going wild about it".....is......I'm watching Morning Joe right now .....and they are .....singing Obama praises...all while bashing Trump.
Any good news was broadcast all across the Network News repeatedly.......Today.....good news is drowned out by Trump bashing......BHO...didn't get bashed by the MSM like Trump.....it isn't even close....
Here's the thing it didn't happen under Obama, because he inherited a mess.....but Republicans still blamed him for a lousy economy he had nothing to do with for the first year! They even blamed him for the Stimulus package Bush initiated! So you can bring up all the hypotheticals about Obama you want but the truth is you cant give Trump credit for staying a good course someone else set forth!
Maybe because he didn't give them so many boulders to bash him with! At one point you all will have to admit this is a self inflicted wound Trump has given to himself!
It's the same old story with the Democrats over and over. When Donna Brazille was cheating for Hillary, they didn't cover it much. She was let go and end of story until she starts throwing Democrats under the bus for their corruption and her corruption. Now all they can talk about is how untrustworthy Donna Brazille is.
The MSM and the Democrat Party are the same.
The Obama White House of Liars
The one-sided coverage by the MSM or Democrat Party as they are is criminal.
First thing I see today on my homepage by Newser is anti-Trump Wave' Results in Big Gains for Democrats and one of them is the highly contested mayoral election in Charlotte, NC. Give me a break. With all the other elections they built up and then had to go hide after the Republicans won them lately, they never reported the results like this.
As far as the highly contested Charlotte Mayoral election where the Democrat won, she replaced a Democrat Mayor, who replaced a Democrat Mayor, who replaced a Democrat Mayor who had to go to prison for bribery charges, who replaced a Democrat Mayor and in yesterday's highly contested election the Democrat beat the Republican by 20 points in that highly contested election.
North Carolina is a purple state. It use to be a red state, but many from the northern blue states have come to live in this state to escape the high taxes of and other things they didn't like and still are voting Democrat, plus we have inherited many more liabilities from these states who vote Democrat to get the goodies they always promise them.
Ok?!.......And? Was Trump blamed for these losses like Obama was when Congressional seats were lost? Did the Democrat candidates run off the platform of claiming they will overturn any and everything that is Trump? Or are you going to admit that once again all the vitriol and animus Trump gets is because he actually puts it on himself?
I agree Trump puts a lot on himself, but it's his personality, not his ignoring the Constitution or giving Iran Nuclear weapons or kicking the can on down the road like the last 3 presidents did.
SQUIRREL!!!!!
Typical conservative deflection.....Just because you don't agree with it and some pundit claims it....it must be true, when the facts shows that except for 2 EO that were overturned everything Obama did has met constitutional muster!
Really? So almost every strategist that who read the deal concluded that if it wasn't negotiated Iran would have had nuclear weapons in 2-3 months....but in your mind somehow that's somehow giving Iran nuclear weapons?!
And so far what has Trump done? Blowing hot air makes you a hair dresser not a statesman or leader
The damn gop never gave Obama credit when Bush's abysmal economic failure began to turn around or accepted any blame for the horrible budget deficits Bush left Obama with at the end of his term forgetting that when Bush came into office Clinton had passed the ball to him wiht the US running a budget surplus. How quickly they forget. The gop is always for fiscal responsiblity when the Democrats are in control of our purse strings but then they spend like drunken sailors on shore leave in Tijuanna when they have the opportunity.
Since 1980 the damn gop has been lying to People saying that gold would rain down to them if the rich and corporations were only relieved of their rightful tax burdens resulting in the top 1% owning 99% of the pie and now the damn gop proposes giving the wealthiest and big corporations another huge tax break. Who in the hell do People think is going to end up carrying all of the gop's debt? As always it will be the poor and the middle class who pays...
Well, I guess some something sort of golden has been raining down hard on the common working class People of America for over a generation but that was and continues to be the goddamn gop pissing on our legs thinking that we would not notice it. Well, let me tell you something. People are noticing now and we do not like it little bit. So now we see the corner turning and the pendulam swining back the other way so the gop should expect to lose both the House and the Senate next year. Neuter Trump! Vote Democratic...
No, no, no. The Myth of the Clinton Surplus
But yet you believe that Obama doubled the national debt!
The economy is rolling along pretty good right now and people are optimistic about the future (business people, manufactures, etc.) and our individual finances are doing better than they have in a long, long time. As people have said ad nauseum, their party is responsible for 'good' the other responsible for 'bad', though me thinks it's far more complicated than who is sitting in the Oval Office.
And I agree with TAP, that the housing bubble was caused by congress and therefore are responsible for the blame when it popped.
And what happened before the last Bush recession? I remember, they gave a big tax cut and got rid of Wall St. regulations. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
But they are going to get it right this time./s
The GOP apparently wants to apply the Kansas Model to the entire nation.
Ah yes, the Brownback model. Did a great job in Kansas. So good in fact that even his own party rebelled against him and overroad his veto of sensible tax laws.
Nonsense. There was not a single repeal of Wall Street Regulations during the Bush Administration. He actually increased regulations
In 2007, according to Wayne Crews of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, roughly 50 regulatory agencies issued 3,595 final rules, ranging from boosting fuel economy standards for light trucks to continuing a ban on bringing torch lighters into airplane cabins. Five departments (Commerce, Agriculture, Homeland Security, Treasury, and the Environmental Protection Agency) accounted for 45 percent of the new regulations.
Since Bush took office in 2001, there has been a 13 percent decrease in the annual number of new rules. But the new regulations' cost to the economy will be much higher than it was before 2001. Of the new rules, 159 are "economically significant," meaning they will cost at least $100 million a year. That's a 10 percent increase in the number of high-cost rules since 2006, and a 70 percent increase since 2001. And at the end of 2007, another 3,882 rules were already at different stages of implementation, 757 of them targeting small businesses.
Overall, the final outcome of this Republican regulation has been a significant increase in regulatory activity and cost since 2001. The number of pages added to the Federal Register, which lists all new regulations, reached an all-time high of 78,090 in 2007, up from 64,438 in 2001.