The Two Worlds Of America: Trump Country & The Real World

We are beginning to see the inevitable divergence between the world of Trump and the rest of us. As our president falls back into his dungeon of his own making, the rest of the country is uniting behind the need for change. We are beginning to see the emergence of the Fox News White House with Trump's last three hires coming out of Trump's ongoing bromance with his Fox{y} fauns. The "non-ideological" president is surrounding himself with the most right wing ideologues he can find as long as they are willing to remouth Trump's idiocy. While this is happening, the world and most of America is focused on the millions of high school students starting a movement that is going to change America. Concurrently, we are seeing the ongoing erosion of the Trump electoral coalition in election after election, where the die is cast. The republican candidate, regardless of his relationship with the President, is running an average of 20 points lower than the president did in 2016. The world of Trump and the world that Americans live in have certainly parted ways.

To date,42% of Trump's executive appointees have left the administration, either voluntarily or involuntarily, the highest turnover rate in presidential history. The early Trump presidency was staffed with a mixture of hard right conservatives, alt-right libertarians, wall street republicans, and a few Democratic moderates.  The exit of the Democratic moderates and the wall street republicans has been obvious to all, with the recent exodus of Cohn, Tillerson, McMasters, and the lessening rolls of Jared and Ivanka Kushner in favor of people like Pompano, Kudlow, and Bolton. This is an administration that has moved to the far right of their own party in both domestic and foreign policy and appears to be developing policies based on personal gain and special interest influence.

The nation does not appear to be moving with the administration. The Trump Presidency has an approval rating that still hovers at between 35 to 41%, the lowest in presidential history. The republican congress has an approval rating that falls somewhere between 9% and 18% which makes the president appear to be Justin Bieber at a concert of 12 and 13 year old audience members. No legislation passed by this congress and president improve the public's perception of this failed presidency and failed congress.

The argument on guns is drifting quickly toward the side of serious background checks and firmer gun control laws. Led by a cadre of teenagers, a movement of millions has become the calling for a generation and a rallying cry that is gaining power by the day, and acquiring adherents from all realms of the political spectrum. This is a harbinger of trouble for the Republican party,the President, and the NRA who appear to have finally met their match in terms of potential political power.

The binding in this scenario is the results of the recent local, state, and nationalized elections. With only one or two outliers, there has been a consistent pattern in the elections of 2016, 2017, and early 2018. No matter how disaffected voters were in the presidential election when they voted for Trump, they are more disaffected with the President and the Republican party today. The average change in elections has been 20% for democrats in these elections. That has meant that if Trump won the election by 30 points, a special election would go for a republican by 10 points. If Trump won by 12 points, a special election would go to a democrat by 8 points. That is more than an outlier, it is a strong trend. If it would hold up going into the midterms, a democratic wave will occur. Up to 100 seats in the house could change hands and even the senate could fall into democratic hands. State houses and governorships could also change from republican to democrat. That, along with the courts' rulings on gerrymandering, which are all going against republicans are boding poorly for President Trump and his clueless and gutless allies.

This is a country moving in two opposite directions. There is a Trump faction, that is already a minority and becoming more of a minority, pulling this country to the far right and there is an American majority pushing this country back to normality. It is a new coalition built on reason and acceptance and the placing of human life over the barrel of a gun. The Trump minority can argue and bluster all they want, but the coalition of the sane, the alliance of the reasonable, will be the driving force in 2018 and beyond. It is a new day with a new leadership. It is a time for our youth to lead the way.