Republican Party Favorability Highest in Seven Years
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Republican favorability at 45%, Democrats at 44%
- Democrats generally have had the upper hand in favorability ratings
- Major gains for Republican Party within the party, including leaners
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September's 36%. It is the party's most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.
The parity in Republicans' and Democrats' favorable ratings marks a change from what has generally been the case since Barack Obama's election as president in November 2008. Republicans have usually been rated less positively than Democrats over this time, with the Republican Party's favorability rating for the last decade averaging 39%, compared with the Democratic Party's 44%.
Only one other time in the last decade has the Republican Party had a significantly higher score than the Democratic Party. That one exception came in November 2014, immediately after elections that saw Republicans capture control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House, when 42% rated the GOP favorably and 36% the Democrats.
Republicans Now More Likely to View Their Party Favorably
The overall increase in the favorable image of the Republican Party is a result of a jump in the positive views of Republicans, including independents who lean toward the party. The percentage of Republicans and leaners with favorable views of their party grew from 67% last September to 85% now.
At the time of last September's poll, congressional Republicans were in the final throes of an unsuccessful attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as "Obamacare," and were losing a highly publicized battle with Democrats over a debt ceiling bill. Since then, Republicans have passed a tax cut bill that was supported by a vast majority of Republicans, and the economy has continued to make gains under the Republican administration of Donald Trump.
Two other major subgroups that tend to be more Republican than the overall population -- men and those living in middle-income households -- have become more likely to view the Republican Party favorably in the past year.
| Republican Party | Democratic Party | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2018 | Sep 2017 | Sep 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| % | % | % | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| All adults | 36 | 45 | 44 | 44 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Party ID | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Republicans plus leaners | 67 | 85 | 13 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Democrats plus leaners | 10 | 10 | 80 | 80 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gender | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Men | 37 | 50 | 40 | 41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Women | 35 | 40 | 49 | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Annual Household Income | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Less than $30,000 | 34 | 40 | 46 | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $30,000-$74,999 | 36 | 49 | 46 | 45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $75,000 and above | 35 | 39 | 45 | 46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GALLUP | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
While Republicans have become significantly more positive about their party over the past year, Democrats' views of the Republican Party and their own Democratic Party have essentially not changed.
Bottom Line
For the Republican Party, less than two months away from an election that could see them lose control of both the House and the Senate, gains in public favorability are a welcome sign. The party has been wallowing in favorable ratings below 40% for most of the last five years after rarely sinking that low in the previous two decades.
No matter how much or how little party favorability affects elections, the fact that Republicans are more likely to view their party favorably than a year ago can be considered a positive indicator for the party, particularly if a more positive image boosts Republican turnout.
Although Republicans' approval of a Congress controlled by their party remains low, Republicans apparently hold similarly positive perceptions of their party as they do of President Trump (81% favorable in this same poll).
Meanwhile, Democrats have been buoyed by numerous projections that they will make major gains in November, which could lead to a result similar to what Republicans experienced in 2010, when they scored a big election victory at a time when favorable views of both parties were about the same.
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We can thank the over-the-top progressives for driving independents into our arms. On November 6th we see who went out and voted!
"Republican Party Gains Ground Among Those With Republican Views"
The survey above does not in any way make the claim that independents are moving to the Republican party. It says those who are already Republicans or lean Republican now have a higher favorable view of the Republican party than they did. What I find most interesting is that only 67% of Republicans and those leaning Republican had a favorable view of their own party in 2016. You'll notice Democrats and those who lean democrat haven't changed at all, they are consistent in their views.
"The balance of partisan affiliation – and the combined measure of partisan identification and leaning – has not changed substantially over the past two decades. However, Democrats hold a slightly larger edge in leaned party identification over Republicans now than in 2016 or 2015.In Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 2017, 37% of registered voters identified as independents, 33% as Democrats and 26% as Republicans. When the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account, 50% either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic; 42% identify as Republicans or lean Republican.
The 8-percentage-point Democratic advantage in leaned partisan identification is wider than at any point since 2009, and a statistically significant shift since 2016, when Democrats had a 4-point edge (48% to 44%)."
"56% of women affiliate with or lean toward the Democratic Party"
"Black, Hispanic and Asian voters remain overwhelmingly Democratic"
"African American voters remain overwhelmingly Democratic: 84% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party"
"Higher educational attainment is increasingly associated with Democratic Party affiliation and leaning."
"In 1994, 39% of those with a four-year college degree (no postgraduate experience) identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party and 54% associated with the Republican Party. In 2017, those figures were exactly reversed."
"postgraduate voters’ affiliation with and leaning to the Democratic Party have grown substantially just over the past few years, from 55% in 2015 to 63% in 2017."
"By contrast, Republicans have been gaining ground over the past several years with those who do not have bachelor’s degrees. Among those with no more than a high school education, 47% affiliate with the GOP or lean Republican"
"Democrats enjoy a 27-percentage-point advantage among Millennial voters (59% are Democrats or lean Democratic, 32% are Republican or lean Republican). In 2014, 53% of Millennial voters were Democrats or leaned Democratic, 37% tilted toward the GOP."
"The Silent Generation (born 1928 to 1945) is the only generational group that has more GOP leaners and identifying voters than Democratic-oriented voters."
So the studies actually show the majority of independents lean Democrat, the majority of women lean Democrat, the vast majority of black, Hispanic and Asians lean Democrat, the majority of those with college degrees lean Democrat, the majority of millennial's lean democrat, while the majority of old white males and the poorly educated lean Republican.
The only reason Republicans actually have a majority in the house and Senate is because traditionally, the young and diverse tend not to vote in the mid-terms. This is going to change this year and I have to give the credit to Donald Trump who has galvanized Democrats and those leaning Democrat as shown by the record numbers of new registered democrats in the last year and a half.
I'm saying it!
You'll notice Democrats and those who lean democrat haven't changed at all, they are consistent in their views.
Yup, we know they march in lock step
Thanks for providing the Pew Research Poll and that political poll to try and contradict something the Gallup Poll is saying, while they are in effect saying something else.
We know all about who tends to vote democrat. (They left out the Federal workers who tend to vote blue and Military personnel who tend to vote red.) None of which explains the GOP winning the White House, Senate, House of Representatives and the majority of Governor posts. What none of these polls has shown is what effect the radical tactics of the democratic party will have on the independents. Thus, my original comment in Post # 1.
As you said, "On November 6th we see who went out and voted!" and I believe you're going to be very disappointed as the blue tsunami wipes out all those supposed Republican advantages.
The last time somebody said anything like that to me was the day before the Presidential election. She said "I won't call you tomorrow, I know you won't be in a very good mood". I ended up calling her in the middle of the night, to hear her say "It isn't over yet". Yup, I still fondly remember that night.
Well guess what? The mid-term elections don't rely on an electoral college that can subvert the will of the majority as it did in 2016. And besides that, I hear Trump supporters claim that polls can't be trusted and they're going to win anyway despite all evidence to the contrary because they got the one win in 2016. This ignores the last 240 years of our nations political record. Was 2016 an anomaly? Yes, it was, but we should not be throwing out our political history and start to rely on the abnormal 2016 election to predict all future elections. That would be completely idiotic, but I get that many Trump supporters want to believe it no matter how insane it is, mostly because they know very little actual political history. The pendulum has swung your way for now, but every action has an opposite and equal reaction and it will be interesting to watch the Trump supporters when their imaginary new trend is crushed before their eyes.
Are you aware that Bill Clinton was elected twice while losing the popular vote?
The pendulum has swung your way for now, but every action has an opposite and equal reaction
You got that backwards. The pendulum went all the way left in 2009 - 2016. Now it has swung slightly the other way. You don't want moderation, you want a return to Obama, so we will keep marching on.
BTW the midterms are held very similar to the EC. Although Representatives are based on population, each state gets 2 Senators. It's all about States sending people to Washington DC and Governors mansions.
That one percent difference has ignited a turf war on the hill. The American people are little more than collateral damage in that war.
What none of these polls has shown is what effect the radical tactics of the democratic party will have on the independents
Most likely the same effects that are driving us from the Republicans, a search for a viable third party candidate dedicated to actually serving the electorate rather than the special interest, donors and themselves.
Neither party represents the people, one is for the wealthy the other pretends not to be, looking for the reincarnation of Teddy Roosevelt.
So most people don't like either party, what a shock. That has been pretty consistently shown in polls for quite some time, hence the pitifully low turnout every election cycle.
Low turnout usually means one thing - satisfaction
Or apathy