How Badly Will the Democrats Lose?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Even Democratic strategists now admit the midterms will be disastrous for their party. "It's going to be a terrible cycle for Democrats," Doug Sosnik, one of the party's best grand strategists, recently told the New York Times . The question is how big the calamity will be. A freeway pileup? Category 5 hurricane? Or Krakatoa with all the attendant consequences?
We can't know for sure—the list of variables and potential influences is too long—but we can speculate.
Will Congress pass some version of Build Back Better using budget reconciliation? How about any other major initiatives? If so, will they affect public opinion? My view is no BBB iteration is likely to pass, but more military aid to Ukraine probably will. So will something on China, a bill funding various Covid-related purposes, some appropriations for the coming year (but not a budget) and odds and ends, but nothing that moves the needle politically.
Does the war in Ukraine create a rally-round-the-flag effect for the president’s party like John F. Kennedy got after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? The proximity of its resolution to the midterms allowed JFK’s Democrats to hold their House losses to four seats and gain four in the Senate. There’s been no sign of this happening for President Biden so far, and I’m doubtful it will.
Does inflation decline appreciably? Or will wages rise faster than prices? Either would soften the electoral blow for Democrats. I’m not an economist but I can’t see how inflation could fall dramatically by November. Mr. Biden spent too much on his American Rescue Plan and the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve waited too long to act, as if inflation would dissipate on its own.
Will the economy be slowing or booming by the midterms? I say almost surely it’ll be slowing as the Fed finally starts trying to wring this not-so-transitory inflation out of the system.
Democrats believe that if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization , it will ignite a surge in Democratic turnout. Maybe. But what if the court instead allows states to ban abortion only after 15 weeks? This might not cause the stir Democrats need. A recent survey by this paper found that 48% of voters support a 15-week abortion ban while 44% oppose it, not exactly a big winner for Democrats.
Democrats are right to be looking for turnout drivers. There’s a distinct lack of enthusiasm among young voters. This seems to be the reason for progressives’ demands that Mr. Biden unilaterally cancel all or most outstanding student-loan debt. But there are three problems. An executive order would face a certain court challenge. Not every young person would welcome it, especially those who’ve repaid their loans or didn’t incur any to begin with. And there’d be a 2010 tea-party-style reaction to such a bailout that could more than wipe out any gains for Democrats among grateful college debtors.
Could the Democratic fundraising edge—especially in Senate races—overcome this enthusiasm gap and the GOP advantages on the generic ballot? Cold hard cash could be dispositive in close races, but not if Republicans have enough money to be competitive. He who spends most doesn’t automatically win. Ask Sarah Gideon , Jaime Harrison and Amy McGrath . All outspent GOP incumbents in their 2020 Senate races but lost.
Here’s another scenario: Independents will find the administration’s election message of “jobs and results”—shots in the arms, a recovering jobs market, the bipartisan infrastructure bill—more appealing than the Republican focus on inflation, immigration, crime and cultural issues. This seems possible but unlikely. It was the previous Oval Office occupant who delivered the vaccines in record time, the job market is healing itself as the pandemic fades (slowly too), and there aren’t shovel-ready projects. Didn’t Mr. Biden learn from the unpopularity of the 2009 stimulus?
Democrats will try to turn the campaign into a referendum on Donald Trump , attempting to peel off some of the 74% of independents and 37% of Republicans in last December’s Washington Post poll who say there’s “no solid evidence” that “there was widespread voter fraud” in 2020.
Making Mr. Trump the center of electoral attention requires his cooperation. That could happen. The former president seems addicted to the adulation he receives at his rallies. But his domination of the political scene miniaturizes candidates he’s trying to advance, albeit perhaps temporarily. Most of them will recognize the danger of featuring him in their campaigns and politely steer clear.
While some of these scenarios may happen in some form, there’s little chance they’ll add up to a material improvement in the Democratic Party’s position this fall. When Democratic strategists go on the record acknowledging how bad the midterm prospects are for their party, you can safely assume they face a shellacking. The recriminations and finger-pointing have already begun.
Mr. Rove helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).
Tags
Who is online
78 visitors
Yes Karl, we can only speculate! Those in control of the party are so committed to an evil ideology that they just won't back off. Even Speaker Pelosi is beginning to worry about the crisis on the southern border. The AG is under pressure to appoint a special prosecutor in the Hunter Biden case. Inflation isn't going to ease and crime isn't going to be contained anytime soon. Everywhere the eye can see, democrats are on the run.
Haven't heard from the ole' turdblossom in a while. Dubya's darling.
Without a doubt, the Democrats have brought this all upon themselves.
Because the gop is nominating the most noxious candidates imaginable their anticipated gains in the House will be muted. They have no path to gaining the Senate and may actually lose seats. President Biden would whoop Trump even worse in any rematch...
They have no path to gaining the Senate and may actually lose seats.
Exactly, Sens. Mark Kelly and Raphael Warnock are worrywarts.
It is wise to never underestimate opponents.
There are vulnerable gop Senators this year...
Twenty one gop Senate seats are up in 2022.
Exactly, it should be a banner year for Chuck Schumer.
Why would they do that? They have some strong young candidates.
They have no path to gaining the Senate and may actually lose seats.
Really? You got a tie because a bogus lawyer told Georgia Republicans to boycott the election last time. You keep forgetting how angry the American public is right now.
President Biden would whoop Trump even worse in any rematch...
Biden couldn't beat Jack the Ripper right now.
Is this one of your 'strong' candidates? Another republican whackjob?
squad#:~:text=Republicans%20Cheer%20As%20Congressional%20Candidate%20Demands,Demands%20Fauci%E2%80%99s%20Execution%20By%20Firing%20Squad
How about this one?
That's all they got plus look at their scumbag darlings they already have in congress like Gaetz, and Taylor-Greene, and Boebert - a bunch of criminals and kooks.
And the Democrats have people like the "Squad", so what's your point?
Yet the Democrats are polling horribly- far worse than the GOP. It isn't the GOP that is pearl clenching at the thought of midterms; that would be the loony toony Democrat party that has long serving politicians fleeing into retirement.
Democrats created this disaster; it is past time they reaped the rewards for their hard work!
I didn't know that I 'had them', so what's the point of your comment?
Your usual projection.
I did not say you specifically had them, I said the Democrats had them. My point was that whackjob nut cases are not exclusive to just one party or ideology.
Ya! I think they're counting their chickens before they're hatched!!!!!!!!!
Those on the left are ignoring a very hard approaching reality.
Midterms can't get here quick enough.
I don't quite understand the mindset of those who are so vigorous in defending the Democrat position in the upcoming mid-terms.. The Republicans only need to gain one seat in the Senate and five seats in the House to gain control of those chambers. These are not hard numbers to see.
Neither party has 100% pure candidates running, they both have their share of IMO undesirable people running for seats. It will be up to the voters in those areas to decide. But I have a very hard time understanding how the Democrats could have a chance to hold on to both chambers in November. I don't know how big the change in numbers will be but I expect the Republicans to gain control in both chambers. I only hope that the Republicans don't also gain a super-majority in the Senate. With their habit of fucking up a good thing I can see them running crazy with impeachments and wasting time, resources and the patience of the population.
It could be interesting to be a fly on the wall and listen to the intense howling outrage and handwringing on the part of the Democrats when/if the Republicans gain control of both the House and Senate.
Biden’s gonna give the dems two black eyes with student debt forgiveness.
Just another nail in the Democrats' midterms coffin!
Typical government plan, find an issue and throw money at it to "solve" it without accepting and understanding the long-term ramifications. And lets be honest, both political parties do it because it's good politics to do something to "fix" an issue in order to get votes and let the future take care of itself.
In Conclusion:
I think everyone can appreciate Karl Rove's cogent (I just hear a foul-mouthed truck driver use the term "cogent") op-ed. When we hear democrats admit it's coming, and more that 3 dozen of them are not going to run again, we can conclude that it's going to be an ass-kicking!