Matt Van Epps Wins TN-07, a Bellwether for 2026
Category: News & Politics
Via: vic-eldred • 11 months ago • 22 commentsBy: Caroline Vakil (The Hill)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Republican Matt Van Epps is projected to defeat Democrat Aftyn Behn in a special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ, in a race that was seen as a key bellwether for Democratic voter enthusiasm ahead of 2026.
Van Epps, a former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, defeated Behn, a state representative, in the race to replace former Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.). Green resigned from his seat earlier this year for an opportunity in the private sector.
Though Republicans were largely expected to retain the seat, which went for both President Trump and Green by more than 20 points in 2024, Democrats went into the special election feeling optimistic after their better-than-expected election last month.
Some recent polling suggested the race was tight, with a survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill released last month putting Van Epps ahead of Behn by only 2 points.
In the end, Van Epps defeated Behn by just a few points more than that — a relatively narrow outcome for a Republican in such a friendly district.
In a sign that the race was viewed as competitive, outside spending poured into the district from both parties. Decision Desk HQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley noted on Monday that while Republicans enjoyed an edge over Democrats in outside dollars, Behn outraised Van Epps between Oct. 1 and Nov. 12.
The race also drew big names from both sides, including former Vice President Harris, the chairs of both national parties, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and President Trump, who phoned into a rally for Van Epps a day before the election.
Democrats needed to rely heavily on turnout from Davidson County, where Nashville is located, in order to keep the race tight. Early voting had shown that the county made up about a quarter of the early vote, underscoring the tough road ahead for the party, which would have needed at least 50 percent of their vote share to come from the county.
Despite the loss, Democrats have reasons to feel optimistic heading into next year: Besides the party's overperformance last month in both Virginia and New Jersey, they're also encouraged by Trump's approval rating, which has dipped to 42 percent. Democrats have also been able to make some gains in the redistricting war, which has seen red and blue states alike look to quickly redraw their maps.
Republicans have their own reasons to feel encouraged. In spite of a challenging midterm environment next year, the GOP is still eyeing several states where it could redraw maps. And if the Supreme Court makes an early enough ruling that guts the Voting Rights Act, that could allow a slew of southern states to redraw their maps before 2026 as well.
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Trump is a purveyor of pigs ears refashioned for the gullible as silk purses.
Not something to celebrate.
Not when coming from a 20-point margin just a year ago. But the MAGAites won't care, a win is a win. They'll continue fiddling and dancing on the deck of the Trumptanic.
It was a special election which = low turnout. The democrats spent millions on it, just like they did to win blue districts last month.
You are (of course) making feeble excuses while ignoring the fact that the GOP should have won in double digits:
This is not good news for Republicans.
Their chances in the midterms are not looking good!
Had it been a regular election I'm sure Van Epps would have won by double digits. In a special election turnout is low, except for the crazy lefties who came out en masse. The dems spent millions on it, just like they did in New Jersey and Virginia which they were supposed to win.
In Virginia the Republicans did not have good candidates
candidate quality only matter a little on the margins
If a a guy who proclaims he wants to see the children of his opponents murdered and committed fraud by claiming that working for his own pac counted as community service can win election as chief law enforcement officer and trail his more qualified ticket mates by only a few points, it just doesn’t matter.
Just more excuses. Endless refusal to even acknowledge reality.
What stops you from recognizing that Trump is rightfully unpopular and that this is (finally) starting to show up as negative for the GoP and all those who support Trump.
Reality is he should have lost! If you look at history the party in power loses seats in off year elections, which makes this 9 point win even more impressive. How the president's party historically performs in the U.S. midterms
Not in such a heavily red district. It is not the case that off year elections means that every in power seat is lost.
You are reading waaaaay too much into the trend that midterm elections favor the out-of-power party.
No, you are trying to make excuses about a "9 point WIN" not being "good enough" in an off-year election where the incumbent party normally loses.
I am not surprised that you double down on your wishful thinking.
Does the incumbent party normally lose in off year elections? Answer, YES. So, you're trying to make up some obscure reason that since it was ONLY a 9 point win, that it somehow it was a loss. Tell us when it can count as a win 10 points 12, 15, 18 or does it HAVE to be 21, find something else to crab about!
Good grief man think about this.
You are using the general fact that the party out of power tends to do better in off year elections as the explanation for this specific case. And you are ignoring the fact that the drop in win percentage is more than half.
You are ignoring the specifics of this situation and clinging to a general rule. That is glossing over the facts.
The Tennessee's 7th Congressional District has been solidly Republican for decades. So the fact that the Republican won is to be expected; it is no surprise. So instead of the simplistic "R won" analysis coupled with the delusional notion that the D should have won because it was an off year
do some actual factual analysis.
I asked ChatGPT to compile this data. I then put it into a spreadsheet and provided the spread. I would hope that I need not explain this any further.
Wishful thinking is no substitute for critical thinking.
Give me the number for it to be considered a win! 10,12,15, 18, 21 what is it? He won the fucking election by 9 points but, it wasn't good enough for you, so give me the number!!!!
Pathetic. Just pathetic refusal to deal with the facts and instead cling to wishful thinking.
Looks like I still need to break this down into tiny little pieces.
I have not argued that he did not win.
What I stated is that this is a bad indicator for GoP support. The reason it is bad is because of the substantial drop in win margin in a deep red district (that has been deep red for decades).
Look at the numbers. Do you truly not see the drop from the historical norms? Rs have clobbered D opponents in double digit wins (nothing less than 21.45 points which occurred in 2024). But this year the spread dropped to 8.86 points.
By any objective, rational analysis, this is not a good sign for GoP support.
I like this wallowing in denial from the MAGA right. What the US, and frankly the world, needs right now are a serous group of moderates to kick a real campaign into gear. I don't care if they are left, or right, moderates, but someone's got to shut the door on populism before the left populists start gaining more power too.
It amazes me people think the out of power party performing better in off year elections than they do in general elections is surprising.
It should amaze you if people are truly 'surprised' by this. But you are merely presuming.
I suspect most people recognize that it is not unusual for a special off-year election to vary from the norm. But in this case, this heavily red district was expected to deliver a double digit win. A single digit win in a district that should have been double digits is an indication that Trump's unpopular policies are having an expected negative effect. It is not proof, but it should also not be cavalierly dismissed. Especially since Trump's policies are affecting pocketbooks and more people (but obviously not all) seem to be learning how to ignore Trump's bullshit and look at the facts.