Opinion: Biden is losing to Trump in a new poll. Does that pass the smell test?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The New York Times and Siena College recently released the results of a presidential match-up poll for six battleground states for 2024, finding Donald Trump leading President Biden in five of them. How concerned should Biden’s supporters be about this?
There are a few things to consider here. First, a poll is a snapshot of how things appear now, not a forecast of how they will appear on election day, which is a full year away.
That is important, but why is Trump polling ahead of Biden now? After all, doesn’t Trump face 91 criminal indictments pending against him, along with legal challenges under the 14th Amendment questioning his ability to run again for office? Didn’t he lose the last election and, in its wake, organize a violent attempt to overturn that contest? And isn’t Biden presiding over a growing economy and declining inflation with historically low unemployment? Doesn’t he have a great deal of legislative achievements to point to? Didn’t he lead Democrats through two solid elections in 2020 and 2022?
The answer to all these questions is yes. But none of these guarantees that voters will reward Biden or punish Trump. Indeed, what we’re seeing is a reminder of two important rules of American political campaigns.
The first rule is that voters have very short memories. A number of studies demonstrate that voters reward incumbents for economic growth or punish them for recessions based on what’s happened in the previous six months, sometimes even more recently than that. Voters don’t really assess presidents on whether they’re better off now than they were four years ago; the horizon is much closer than that. It’s not that voters don’t remember Trump’s presidency or the violent way it ended; it’s just that they increasingly care less about that than they do about more recent events.
The second rule is that elections are about the incumbent — even when the challenger was the incumbent not too long ago. Biden is trailing in these polls because he’s somewhat unpopular, with approval ratings hovering close to 40%, despite favorable economic conditions. People are dissatisfied with the country, and when they are, they take it out on the incumbent.
Why are they dissatisfied? A recent article in the Economistfound that how the public views the economy has changed since 2020. The writers looked at the last 40 years of economic data and found that until recently, Americans’ impressions of the economy tracked very closely with the actual economic data. If the economy was slowing or unemployment was rising, voters had a sense of that and generally reported a worse impression of the economy. They also knew when it was turning around.
But since the COVID pandemic, there’s been a large and growing disconnect between how the economy is behaving and how Americans perceive it. Economic performance has been very strong recently, but Americans continue to say times are bad. Surveys about the economy found that Americans think the economy is worse now than it was during the stagflation of the early 1980s, the deep recession of 1990-91, the Great Recession of 2008, and more.
Although the precise cause of this difference between public perception and economic indicators isn’t clear, the breakdown of workplaces and a distrust of traditions and institutions — even in a period of low unemployment and strong growth — can all contribute to a strong feeling of insecurity and dread.
And because Joe Biden is president now, he bears the brunt of these fears.
If the economy continues to perform well, voters may come to reassess their views, although this is a slow process.
The New York Times/Siena College survey may also be significantly understating Biden’s support and overstating Trump’s. Trump’s supporters are particularly exercised right now because he is under attack from a variety of sources and their first reaction is always to defend him. Biden, who is in the midst of making hard calls on Israel, Ukraine and other difficult domestic issues, is invariably going to be making many people upset, even within his own coalition. This tends to look bad for an incumbent in a non-election year, but partisans pretty typically “come home” to their parties during an election year as they are reminded of the stakes.
And there are a number of ways in which that poll struggles to pass the smell test. It shows 22% of Black voters backing Trump when he won 12% of that demographic in 2020, with that figure often below 10% for Republican presidential candidates. The poll shows voters under 30 preferring Biden by only one percentage point; Biden won that group by double digits three years ago.
Is it possible that these Democratic leaning groups have moved so quickly in the Republican direction? It’s possible, but not particularly probable — demographic change in political support rarely happens that quickly, even allowing for some past polls being relatively accurate a year before an election.
One thing we do know is that presidential election results have been pretty rigid in the last two decades. Trump got 46% of the vote in 2016 and 47% in 2020; he’ll probably do around the same in 2024 if he is the Republican nominee. Chances are, we’re going to end up with a very close election, with the winner being determined by just tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. This is the way elections are going in this era, and we don’t need a poll to know this.
Seth Masket is a professor of political science and director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver. You can follow his Substack newsletter Tusk, about the Republican presidential nomination contest, at smotus.substack.com.
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Trump is not going to get 22% of the black vote next November and he is not going lose the under 30 vote to Biden by just one point, so we can say this poll does not pass the smell test.
There is a warning in it for the Democrats though. The Biden campaign wanted to depend on the Republican presidential candidates to "disqualify" Trump through attacks on him during the course of the primaries, but it has become evident that they are all too afraid of him to do any such thing.
Biden and his surrogates have to start attacking Trump. I would start by calling on Trump to explain what he was doing on the afternoon of Jan 6th , and why did he tell Kristen Welker of Meet The Press "I'm not going to tell you" when she asked him that question.
One thing you can be assured of. Trump brings everyone out. He will bring the American people to the polls and he will bring the left out as well.
www.nbcnews.com /politics/donald-trump/jan-6-riot-was-culmination-trump-conspiracies-overturn-2020-election-s-rcna123897
Jan. 6 riot was 'culmination' of Trump conspiracies to overturn 2020 election, special counsel says in new filing
By Daniel Barnes and Zoë Richards 4-4 minutes 11/6/2023
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump is responsible for the events at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 because they were the “culmination” of his conspiracies to overturn the 2020 presidential election, special counsel Jack Smith’s office says in a new filing in the former president 's federal election interference case.
The filing is in response to Trump's motion to strike “inflammatory” references to the violence of Jan. 6, 2021, from his criminal indictment on four charges related to his alleged efforts to interfere with the certification of Joe Biden’s electoral victory.
Senior assistant special counsel Molly Gaston called Trump's motion a "meritless effort" to evade allegations that he was responsible for events at the Capitol that day.
“Indeed, that day was the culmination of the defendant’s criminal conspiracies to overturn the legitimate results of the presidential election," she wrote.
An attorney for Trump didn't immediately respond to a request for comment Monday.
The special counsel's office also filed separate memos opposing Trump's effort to dismiss the case. Trump previously filed two motions to dismiss based on various constitutional grounds and a failure to state a claim.
Assistant special counsel James Pearce — in response to Trump's claim that he couldn't have known his actions were criminal because others in the past weren't prosecuted for protesting election results — argued that "the defendant stands alone in American history for his alleged crimes. No other president has engaged in conspiracy and obstruction to overturn valid election results and illegitimately retain power.”
The special counsel also argued there is "no indication of selective or vindictive prosecution." Trump has accused prosecutors of leveraging a "retaliatory response" to his decision to run for president in 2024.
“The factual and legal record contain absolutely no indication of selective or vindictive prosecution,” senior assistant special counsel Thomas Windom wrote in a filing Monday, arguing that Trump had failed to provide the "rigorous proof necessary" to establish such a claim.
In total, Trump has made four attempts to dismiss the federal indictment in Washington on charges related to interfering with the 2020 presidential election.
He also filed a motion to dismiss the case on Oct. 5, on the basis of presidential immunity. That motion awaits a ruling from U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is presiding over the case.
Prosecutors from the special counsel's office argued in a filing Monday that Chutkan should deny Trump's request to halt the trial pending resolution of his motion to dismiss on the basis of presidential immunity.
Gaston urged Chutkan to prioritize ruling on that motion and the motion to dismiss the case on constitutional grounds because they are appealable immediately. She also accused Trump of trying “to delay trial at all costs and for as long as possible.”
“To limit such disruption, the Court should promptly resolve the defendant’s immunity motion, as well as his double jeopardy claim ... so that the Government can seek expedited consideration of any nonfrivolous appeal and preserve the Court’s carefully selected trial date,” Gaston wrote.
The trial in the election interference case is scheduled to begin March 4.
Daniel Barnes reported from Washington and Zoë Richards from New York.
Daniel Barnes
Daniel Barnes reports for NBC News, based in Washington.
I'm sure he was at the command center directing the Proud Boys / S
If that is the left's case, why are you all so afraid of letting the people decide who the next president will be?
I thought you believed in Democracy?
Are you afraid to let the people decide who will be the next POTUS?
The Proud Boys, and the rest of the Jan 6th traitors, were there to stop or delay the electoral vote count, to give Trump more time to try and overturn the election results. And they came to that role because Trump asked them to.
They must have been mind readers because they had planned to go to DC long before Trump even had a speech written. Maybe we should of had the security Trump suggested.
That is clearly on you. The democrats have all these trials lined up and scheduled for the campaign season and they are even considering using the 14th Amendment to disqualify Trump.
How can you dare to project that on anyone else?
I'm not so sure about that. There are always some who just don't bother to go vote as they feel their one vote cannot make any difference. And if the presidential election is back to those two losers, I suspect that more are going to just not bother to vote. We shall see.. I'll be the first to admit my gift for prognostication is not all that strong.
Project? I asked a question which you have not answered. You brought it up so state your belief in it.
Vic, are you afraid to let the people decide who will be the next POTUS? Simple yes or no.
Why not? Don't black Americans have to buy food and gas and pay bills?
The poll was made up of voters who supported Biden 49-44 in 2020.
Why dont you speak out in favor of one of the other Republican candidates instead of constantly taking the part of the piece of shit human being Donald Trump ?
If Trump is elected again it will be one of the darkest days in American history. There is overwhelming evidence that he tried to steal the 2020 election (despite of your constant nonsense about the Democrats being just as bad). How can we put someone in office who tried to overthrow our government? Does your hatred of "woke" really direct you to a position of defending Trump, because that is what you do here every day.
Somehow you seem to think that Biden's numbers will magically improve by election day. What the trend of the numbers should tell you is that Biden most likely will not win the election. Biden is losing approval in just about every demographic. The voter's distaste for Joe will likely affect the down ballot candidates negatively.
The day is fast approaching when another candidate needs to be chosen. The seeming indifference to reality of the Dems and their inability to effectively govern is becoming apparent to the electorate. The average citizen doesn't give much of a shyt about J6.
I would have been happy with a new candidate, but Biden is going to stick it out. He is infinitely preferable to Trump.
Because I don't really care amongst them. I will vote for whichever one has the best chance to defeat him when the primary rolls around.
The better question is given your hatred of Trump, why do you push claims like this to protect Biden? You know, you have to know, he's a terrible candidate who has no more business than Trump of being President. The generic Democrat, in this poll, runs 13 points better than Biden against Trump. Yet every time Biden's creeping senility or obvious corruption get pointed out, you run to the barricades to defend Biden in ways that defy reason.
Almost everyone in America has "more business than Trump of being president."
Interesting you should ask that question.
If a 2nd Trump presidency really does represent the end of civilization as we know it, why do you always bitch so hard about DeSantis?
DeSantis is a far right ideologue with horrible policies.
So DeSantis is worse than Trump?
Amazingly, Biden could indeed lose to Trump.
That distinct possibility should shock the D party into action. Trump is a horribly weak candidate. All the Ds need do is put forth a sound individual, with some name recognition, 45-65 years old, decent experience, moderate and they would have a very good chance to attract the independent voters and voters that are utterly sick of the prospect of having to choose between Biden and Trump.
It truly amazes me how fucked up USA political parties really are. But the declining quality of presidential candidates over the past 20 years clearly shows that our system is broken. Instead of inspirational statesmen who set a fine example we wind up with whoever is next in line / whoever has the best name recognition.
Looks like there is no way the entirely dysfunctional, delusional current GOP is going to allow anyone other than Trump secure the nomination. It is up to the D party to give the nation a good alternative and that is not Biden or Harris.
It is up to all Americans to make sure Trump never sets foot in the White House again.
I agree. But it is up to the Ds to give us an alternative to Biden. It is up to the Rs to give us an alternative to Trump but the current GOP is so delusional in aggregate that there is no realistic chance they will act sensibly.
This. 5000% this. Truer words will not appear on the internet today.
That's all they've ever had to do to beat Trump.
Those people exist in the Democratic Party, but the party machine will not support them.
Possibly the exemplar for this is Gretchen Whitmer (governor of MI). She is very popular, experienced, was a VP consideration (refused it), etc. yet she is not only dutifully NOT running because Biden is running but she is actively trying to get him reelected.
Party loyalty drives all this nonsense. Here we have arguably one of the best D candidates refusing to act. If Biden does not voluntarily step down (or forced by health), Whitmer, et. al. simply will not run.
So, yeah, they exist but they are sitting on their thumbs.