Bad News For Trump - Digby's Hullabaloo
By: Tom Sullivan (Digbys Hullabaloo)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Published by Tom Sullivan on January 16, 2024
Two can play this game
Doesn't it seem from the press' perspective that good news for Democrats is always bad news for Democrats?
Fine. Donald "91 Indictments" Trump won the Iowa caucuses Monday night. Handily. As expected. But with lower than expected turnout. Let's examine why that's bad news for Trump.
The headline this morning is that, per entrance polling (Edison Research and major news organizations), "63 percent said that Trump is qualified to be president even if he's convicted of a crime."
That's bad news for Trump. Because 32% said he would be unfit for office if convicted of a crime. While it is unclear how many Monday caucus-goers were crossover Democrats there to put their thumbs on the scales, that means as much as a third of Trump's support could bleed away if he's convicted of his various charges before the election.
Trump lost the 2020 election by seven million votes. If Iowa's conservative Republicans are at all representative of the rest of his base, that bleed is enough to lose Trump the presidency again even if the Supreme Court doesn't deem him disqualified from running.
Other results showed that, yep, caucus-goers looked like Republicans:
* 60% said they favor a federal law that would ban abortions nationwide.
* 66% said they did not think Democrat Joe Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2020.
* 64% said they decided who to support in the presidential nomination contest before this month.
* 47% said they considered themselves part of the MAGA movement, a reference to Trump's Make America Great Again slogan. 49% said they were not part of that movement.
* 12% said the most important quality a Republican presidential nominee should have is the ability to beat Biden, compared to 43% who said shared values mattered most.
Monday Night Politics coverage from the sidelines featured a selection of Trump supporters who felt Trump had delivered for them. But supporters were noticeably unspecific about Trump's accomplishments. He delievered a massive tax cut for the rich and his Supreme Court picks overturned Roe . Perhaps that was enough. But beyond that?
The Washington Post also reports:
Trump won 43% of voters who were looking for shared values — a huge jump from just 5% with the group in 2016 — and won 82% of voters who were looking for a candidate who "fights for people like me."
Again, sidelines interviews were unenlightening about what values they believe Trump shares in common.
Pollsters seem not to have asked whether attendees would support a candidate who violates the U.S. Constitution.
Trump won the Iowa caucuses, but this is NOT an impressive performance.
Almost as many people chose other Republicans as Trump in a state that isn't at all representative of America as a whole.
New Hampshire will much tougher for Trump. pic.twitter.com/hh2Hgj14uI
— David Cay Johnston (@DavidCayJ) January 16, 2024
Another less-reported detail is that half of those who turned out in sub-zero cold came to vote for someone other than Donald Trump. Michael Tomasky comments on that (New Republic):
Early in the day on Monday, I saw Steve Kornacki touting a poll in which a plurality of Nikki Haley voters said they'd vote for Joe Biden over Trump in November, by 43-29. This is consistent with general polling that suggests that somewhere between a third and 40 percent of Republicans are anti-MAGA. That may be something the Biden campaign can exploit in November to some extent.
Candidates usually get between 92 and 94 percent of the vote of their party members. If the Biden team can keep Trump below 90 among Republicans, that could make a real difference when the votes are tallied in November. Right now, the "Democrats mad at Biden" story line is getting a lot more media oxygen—mostly because those Democrats who are angry at Biden over his Israel policy or those averse to him cutting a deal with Republicans on the border are more vocal at the moment.
But there does exist a quiet and not-so-small army of Republicans who don't want Trump to represent them. Whether there's any way for the Biden campaign to tap into that army's psyche and snap the particular synapse that might make them vote Democratic, I have no idea.
I don't know either. They might stay home. Or they might fall in line as Republicans will. Tomasky observes:
Businessman turned North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum said last summer that he wouldn't do business with Trump. On Sunday, Burgum, no doubt taking measure of the drapery in the secretary of the Interior's office, endorsed him.
We'll see plenty of that, especially from Republicans with something to gain personally from another Trump presidency. But that general lack of enthusiasm from a broad swath of the GOP base is bad news for Trump.
Stuart Stevens believes Trump is "walking away" with the GOP nomination because he is what most of the party wants, because they are "insane."
"Donald Trump is walking away with the Republican nomination because Donald Trump is what Republicans want." There is no simpler way to say it and everyone should come realize it now because this is what the party has become. @StuartPStevens has more on @MSNBC. pic.twitter.com/vWBY3Coq9P
— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) January 15, 2024
Watch for this. If only 12% believe Trump's ability to beat Biden is what's most important, will that same bunch believe Trump again when he loses and says election stolen. Assuming he's not already disqualified?
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Other results showed that, yep, caucus-goers looked like Republicans:
These people are not patriotic Americans, they are cult members.
The "independents" will have to save our country. They claim they are the largest group, they need to come forward and start to speak out, before it is too late.
The only way Trump can become president is through both-sidesism and apathy. Unfortunately we all too often see both of those things through the national media's approach to all this.
Accusations only at this point, convictions are not likely because any further persecution amounts to election interference.
Perhaps the Dems should have put up a candidate who has a chance of winning.
Now it's too late.
The left has made a martyr of Trump, now they will pay the price.
Ninety one felony criminal indictments handed down by four different grand juries in four different jurisdictions who did see the evidence and voted to indict are not mere accusations!