Final Marist, CNN Polls Go Harris As Silver Tips Trump Win
By: Alex Griffing Load Comments (Mediaite)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Election forecaster Nate Silver posted on X Friday that the final NPR/Marist poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the crucial "blue wall" states keeps the presidential race competitive, according to his model.
"Reassuring polls for Harris in the sense that the race is likely to remain toss-up-ish. Unless the final NYT/Siena state polls all tilt in the same direction I guess," Silver wrote.
The Marist poll found Harris up 3 points on Trump in Michigan and leading by 2 points in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The pollster's final results for other swing states showed Georgia and Nevada as tied, while Trump led by 1 point in Arizona and 2 points in North Carolina. If Marist's polls were to be the outcome of the election, Harris would sneak out a 270 Electoral College vote win without winning either state that is tied.
#NEW - Electoral Map Based on Final NPR/Marist polling (#6 - 2.9/3.0)
Harris 270
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2024
Trump 246
——
Michigan - Harris +3
Wisconsin - Harris +2
Pennsylvania - Harris +2
Georgia - Tie
Arizona - Harris +1
North Carolina - Trump +2 pic.twitter.com/L76QWeQlGT
Silver's model still tips Trump as the favorite to win the election as he leads in Pennsylvania in the model.
#Latest@NateSilver538 Forecast: Chance of winning
MICHIGAN
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 1, 2024
Harris 61% (+22)
Trump 39%
.
WISCONSIN
Harris 56% (+12)
Trump 44%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 57% (+14)
Harris 43%
.
NEVADA
Trump 52% (+4)
Harris 48%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 65% (+30)
Harris 35%
.
GEORGIA
Trump 66% (+32)… https://t.co/4MD0x01o5wpic.twitter.com/CUPstZinU5
CNN/SSRS's final polling results would have Harris winning with 278 electoral college votes, without Pennsylvania - where is she tied with Trump in the poll.
#NEW - Electoral Map Based on Final CNN/SSRS polling (full field)
Harris 278
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 31, 2024
Trump 241
——
Wisconsin - Harris +6
Michigan - Harris +5
Arizona - Harris +1
North Carolina - Harris +1
Pennsylvania - Tie
Georgia - Trump +1
Nevada - Trump +1 pic.twitter.com/N2hjB1or7C
Below are some additional pollsters' final maps, according to InteractivePolls on X:
#NEW - Electoral Map Based on Final YouGov/@thetimes poll (full field)
Harris 276
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2024
Trump 251
——
Wisconsin - Harris +4
Michigan - Harris +3
Pennsylvania - Harris +3
Nevada - Harris +1
Arizona - Tie
Georgia - Trump +1
North Carolina - Trump +1 https://t.co/XAaNjGPIQfpic.twitter.com/9VCh9RKu6q
#NEW - Electoral Map Based on Final Trafalgar/Insider Advantage polling
Trump 306
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2024
Harris 232
——
North Carolina - Trump +3.2
Georgia - Trump +2.4
Arizona - Trump +2.1
Pennsylvania - Trump +1.0
Wisconsin - Trump +1.0
Michigan - Trump +0.6
Nevada - … pic.twitter.com/lDZ73RoA8R
#NEW - Electoral Map Based on @atlas_intel polling (full field)
Trump 312
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 31, 2024
Harris 226
——
Arizona - Trump +4.9
North Carolina - Trump +4.0
Nevada - Trump +3.6
Georgia - Trump +1.6
Pennsylvania - Trump +1.1
Michigan - Trump +0.9
Wisconsin - Trump +0.3… https://t.co/gpLZ59xJG6pic.twitter.com/N0Mf2mQ0AT
__
Have a tip for us? tips@mediaite.com
Tags:2024 ElectionCNNDonald TrumpKamala HarrisMarist PollNate Silver Previous PostNext Post Previous PostNext Post Alex Griffing - Senior Editor
Alex Griffing is a Senior Editor at Mediaite. Send tips via email: alexanderg@mediaite.com. Follow him on Twitter: @alexgriffing
More Stories by Alex Griffing Load Comments
I guess its going down to the wire.
It is all about turnout.
Nate Silver says its up for grabs.
Meanwhile Trump is plotting how to overthrow the results if he loses.
Plotting? He is already doing it. Or haven't you been paying attention to the right wing right here on NT?
I do not need a pollster to recognize that.