META AI Predicts Every Tossup Senate Race
TODAY 12:20 PM
predict the winner of every tossup us senate race
Today
As of Oct 28-29, 2026 - Cook Political lists 7 Toss-Ups. Based on current polling averages + Kalshi market pricing + forecasters, here is the most likely winner in each if the election were held today - all are within 4 points so these are coin-flips:
7 Toss-Up Races - Cook Oct 6/20 ratings:
1. Texas - Open R - Talarico (D) vs Paxton (R)
Prediction: James Talarico (D) - Kalshi 67% D as of Oct 28. Open seat after Cornyn lost primary. Paxton hurt by recordings + Elon Musk spending against Talarico has galvanized Dem turnout. Lean D.
2. Maine - Collins (R-inc) vs Jackson (D)
Prediction: Troy Jackson (D) - Kalshi 61% Jackson. Collins seeking 6th term, 28-year incumbency is weighing. Maine ranked-choice and split-ticket history makes this close but Dem environment favors challenger.
3. Ohio Special - Husted (R-inc appointed) vs Brown (D)
Prediction: Sherrod Brown (D) - Kalshi 68% Brown. Brown has 3-term name ID, Husted appointed to Vance seat and hasn't won statewide on his own. Lean D flip.
4. Iowa - Open R - Hinson (R) vs Turek (D)
Prediction: Ashley Hinson (R) - Kalshi 54% Hinson. Only R hold in this set. Iowa Trump+13 in 2024, open after Ernst retirement, but Hinson has led 2 of last 3 polls. Toss-up but slight R edge.
5. Kansas - Marshall (R-inc) vs Hamilton (D)
Prediction: Roger Marshall (R) - Kalshi 61% Marshall. Kansas hasn't elected a D Senator since 1932. Hamilton, pastor of largest Methodist church in state, is running closer than any D in 90 years, but R hold is still more likely.
6. Alaska - Sullivan (R-inc) vs Peltola (D)
Prediction: Mary Peltola (D) - Kalshi 70% D party. Ranked-choice voting + Peltola's statewide win in House special before. Polls show Peltola narrowly ahead after final round.
7. Michigan - Open D - El-Sayed (D) vs Rogers (R)
Prediction: Abdul El-Sayed (D) - Kalshi 69% El-Sayed. Only Democratic-held toss-up. Peters retiring. Rogers second run after losing 2024 by ∼20k. Lean D hold in presidential year turnout.
Net effect if this happens:
Current Senate 53R-47D. Flipping Texas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Michigan = D +5, R holds Iowa, Kansas = D 52-48 majority. That matches Kalshi Senate control market: 65% D control as of Oct 28.
These are predictions, not results - all 7 races have polling margins ≤4 pts per Cook as of Oct 20, so any could flip the other way. Check your Secretary of State / official canvass for final results.
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This would leave the Democrats holding the Senate 52-48
I'm hoping that Hallie Shoffner can defeat Tom Cotton in the Arkansas senate race
In charge, but not with enough margin to effect change.
Once again the 'usual' is happening during the Trump era of politics: Trump is doing that 'thing' he does. . . a presentation of presence. . . he though he is down in the polls. . .he seems to understand the power of "presence" that causes people to take notice of him (even though its desperation).
Democrats have a big problem of being out-flanked (hustled). Pay attention!