Donald Trump is now trapped in a war even he can’t chicken out of
By: Sean O'Grady (The Independent via MSN)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Will Trump chicken out? It seems to get harder with every day that Operation Epic Fury grinds on, and the president finds his options closing in on him. In the past, the world and, crucially, the markets, have learned that “Trump always chickens out” – or Taco. Supposedly, he is able to declare victory on his own terms at any minute. So where is it?
Taco has become an article of faith for investors, from the observed behaviour of a leader who has only one guardrail: the reactions of capital markets. On tariffs and on the invasion of Greenland in particular, we have seen a pullback from the brink when confronted with mass wealth destruction on the stock and bond markets, and, much more occasionally, when allies or rivals, notably China, decide to assert themselves. “In Taco we trust” may as well be the modern motto, and so much so that the Federal Reserve should put it on the dollar bill. But in Iran, it increasingly looks like Trump is caught in a lobster pot. He has found his way in, but cannot get out.
We don’t know if the Israelis told Trump they were going to attack Iran’s huge natural gas fields, an act that triggered a vicious reprisal by the Iranians on the adjacent Qatari gas fields, the largest in the world. What we do know is that Trump has had to react and declare that there will be no more Israeli operations like that.
But can he actually stop them? It is becoming clearer that Israel’s interests are not identical to those of the United States. Even for a “furious” America, the destruction of much of the world’s supplies of natural gas and oil would be a bad thing. So would a civil war in Iran, between Iranians themselves and other ethnic minorities. So, for that matter, would be pulverising Tehran into dust, Gaza-style.
On the reasonable assumption that, putting it bluntly, Benjamin Netanyahu duped Trump into fighting this war, will Netanyahu be skilled enough to keep America bombing Iran even when it is no longer in America’s interests – and those of the Gulf states, Europe and East Asia – to do so?
Trump has said he wants to preserve Iran’s oil industry for the sake of the future of the Iranian people, and indeed for the world economy; Israel doesn’t really mind about that so long as Iran is so broken and feeble that it cannot threaten Israel. For an Israeli government, that is a short-sighted and cruel war aim, but at least it’s an understandable one. For America and the rest of us (aside from Putin, it must be added), it’s a costly disaster, and could easily tip the world into a slump.
In the final analysis, America would be able to put sufficient pressure on Israel to scale back its offensive, as was eventually the case over Gaza.
But Trump is now in the ridiculous position that to get out of this war, he also depends on the Iranians. He needs them to stop attacking Israel (assuming the Israelis cease fire), stop lobbing missiles as Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia (which the as-yet non-martyred ayatollahs seem to enjoy in a sort of nihilistic way), and, above all, to open up the Strait of Hormuz to maritime shipping. Trump will soon have to ask them nicely to take their foot off the windpipe of the Western economies and in return they will want some concessions of their own. These, Trump may find it difficult to agree to. After all, he doesn’t like “losers”, does he?
Maybe the bombings and the assassinations will eventually make the Islamic Republic sue for peace or collapse, but it has all proved futile so far. They don’t need much to keep going, and if Iran becomes a failed state, that is nobody’s idea of a “victory” (except for Israel). It is the kind of terrible trap that Trump used to criticise his “stupid” predecessors for falling into.
Trump’s proposition was to leave through deals, which was fine for him until he found himself framed up with a guy called Bibi who prefers peace through the annihilation of the enemy. Trump, who has a sort of naive cunning, should be a sufficiently good businessman, or politician for that matter, to know when to cut his losses. He has eliminated the old ayatollah, wiped out much of the old leadership, eliminated Iran’s navy and air force, obliterated the nuclear warhead project, weakened the regime – and they are ready to talk.
The time to do a deal with Iran and chicken the hell out of there is now. Mr. President, do what you’re so good at: declare “a victory like the world has never seen before, not even close”. Go back to making America great again. Please.
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The taco is too perfect, lol.
and where did they get a picture of my wife taken in 1973, hmmmm?