The scale of Trump’s political blunder in Iran is coming into focus
By: Aaron Blake (CNN via MSN)
You can fool all the people some of the time. And some of the people can be fooled all the time. But all the people cannot be fooled all the time.
What's ironic is that this political maxim is attributed to the first Republican President.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
June 23, 2026 -- The first major poll conducted since the Trump administration signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran has a point that seems like good news for Trump: Americans overwhelmingly agree he should end the war rather than push for more concessions.
But it’s not because they actually like the agreement; it’s because they think the war is a debacle, and they just want to be done with it.
A new CBS News-YouGov poll shows that even as Americans get their first glimpse — however tentative — of the finish line, it hasn’t improved their views of the war one iota.
And as the administration enters a new phase in this process, it’s worth a check-in on where the politics stand and how they could impact what comes next.
Americans think it’s a bad deal
The poll shows 78% of Americans said they’d prefer to end the war now, while just 22% wanted to hold out — to “continue … until Iran gives up more.”
At least one Trump political adviser was celebrating that finding on Sunday. He suggested it showed the American people were on Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s side on the accord with Iran.
But the rest of the poll makes it abundantly clear that’s not true.
When asked to actually review the agreement, just 22% of Americans said it’s better for the United States than Iran, while significantly more — 37% — said it’s better for Iran. (The other 41% said it was about equal.)
The percentage who said it’s better for the US included just 39% of Republicans. So just to underscore, only about 4 in 10 members of Trump’s own party think his administration negotiated a win here.
Americans also said 45%-29% that the war hasn’t been successful from a strategic standpoint.
They’re accepting a strategic loss
But that last finding might undersell how much of a strategic defeat Americans see this as.
Perhaps nothing drives that home like polling on the nuclear issue — Trump’s most critical goal.
While Trump has repeatedly asserted his aim was to permanently stop Iran’s nuclear program, the CBS poll shows 69% of Americans and even 45% of Republicans said this agreement, if finalized to bring the war to a conclusion, won’t accomplish that.
This echoes a Fox News poll conducted the weekend the framework was being negotiated in mid-June. It showed registered voters said 64%-35% that it was unlikely a peace agreement would stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons.
Notably, the agreement leaves many details for later, so there are still plenty of issues to iron out on the nuclear front.
But the Trump administration appears to be walking back some of its goals, and these findings get at the rank pessimism that exists in the American public.
The new CBS poll also shows:
- 68% said the agreement, if finalized, won’t have stopped Iran from threatening other countries. Nearly half (48%) of polled Republicans agreed with that statement.
- 79% said it hasn’t made Iran’s leaders more pro-US.
- 74% said it hasn’t made Iran’s people safe and free, which Trump had said was one of his goals earlier this year.
They think the war was counterproductive
A striking and consistent detail in polling on the Iran war are findings that suggest the war is not only viewed as a failure, but as counterproductive.
And that continues today.
Trump claims the war has destroyed Iran militarily and pulverized its nuclear program. But just 37% of Americans say Iran is weaker today than before the war began.
More than 6 in 10 say Iran is as strong as it was before (38%) or stronger (25%).
While Iran has surely suffered major military losses, it has also demonstrated significant leverage via its now-proven ability to lock down the Strait of Hormuz and jeopardize the world economy.
Speaking of which, Americans think the war is likely to continue exacting a toll in the months and years to come.
A clear 57% majority said the war has actually “created more problems than it solved.” That’s nearly three times the 21% who said it had solved more problems than it created.
They think Trump was caught off-guard
And when it comes to that impact, Americans seem to think Trump simply didn’t understand what he was getting himself into.
The poll asked whether people thought the Trump administration understood the impact the war would have on the world economy.
Fully 64% thought the war impacted the world economy more than the administration expected. That includes 51% of polled Republicans.
Of course, there’s plenty to back that up — both from Trump’s own public comments as well as reporting. CNN reported in March that the administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to try and close the Strait of Hormuz.
Americans are just anxious for it to be over — and think Trump is, too
The last big lesson is that Americans are on the same page with Trump in a way: They just want it to be over, and they think Trump does, too.
The Fox News poll in mid-June had shown 70% of registered voters said they were concerned the war would become a long-term commitment. And 87% said it was important to avoid a prolonged war.
That likely helps explain why people might be willing to accept a suboptimal agreement. The administration said the war was likely to last about four to six weeks, and it’s now dragged on for nearly four months.
Americans haven’t seen many deliverables during that time. And given they didn’t see much reason to go to war in the first place, it’s not a big logical leap that they would decide to cut bait.
And perhaps most tellingly, that’s what they think Trump is doing right now — trying to cut bait.
The CBS poll asked whether Americans thought the Trump administration was reaching this agreement because it had met all of its goals, or because it “wants the conflict to be over.”
Two-thirds of Americans said it was because the administration just wants to wrap it up.
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The polling doesn't begin to cover the full extent of damage caused by President Trump's war of choice. China is now much stronger; capturing a larger share of the global market for solar panels, batteries, and EVs. India has become more independent and seeks alliances with US competitors. The BRICS trade block has become a more viable model to counter American hegemony. The Middle Eastern and Asian mBridge project has been tested under real world conditions to rival the US dominated SWIFT system. Countries around the world have started hedging against America by buying gold.
The United States emerges from this war of choice much weaker. And a nuclear agreement with Iran will not fix the fallout from the war.
Let's face it. If this was something Biden had done to prove he was an ally of Bibi and not a paper tiger, and we had this same result, conservatives would be marching on the Whitehouse with their pitchforks and tiki torches. And that is not even an exaggeration, we saw what they did on January 6th, imagine if they had something real to complain about and actual evidence to back it up. The only reason they aren't, is 'because Trump".
That hyperbole doesn't account for the reaction to Joe Biden's botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. President Biden has his very own screwup on the record that allows comparison. There's no need to make wild assed guesses based upon the political lies surrounding the Jan. 6th riot.
Biden's incompetence does not even compare to what Trump just did with Iran. Further, Trump set Biden up. Iran was totally Trump's doing.
And to nobody's surprise Bidens dementia is because of trump, I'm surprised the TDS hasn't blamed him for the Kennedy assassination yet.
I agree. My point was that trying to inject the false politics of Jan. 6th into the discussion hides Trump's incompetence.
Comparing Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan with Trump's war of choice certainly does not make Trump look better or more competent.
The false politics surrounding Jan. 6th highlights the incompetence of Democrats, in general. Democrats were going to slay St. George's dragon and fucked it up.
That is not what I wrote. Not even close. You penned another blatant lie.
We know you hate democrats but try telling the truth about them for once instead of just slamming them into a brick wall
Any tragedies that happened during the withdrawal from Afghanistan which was an agreement drawn up by the prior Trump administration, while regrettable, were the Biden administration getting us OUT of a conflict that had gone on for over 20 years. How can that in ANY fucking way be used as a "comparison" to the reckless rush INTO another war of choice in the middle east which isn't putting an end to dumping our tax dollars into the sand in the middle east but starting a NEW war to spend taxpayer money and American lives on.
While I agree that Trump supporters lied and tried to convince everyone they didn't see what we all saw, I have no illusions as to what happened that day. And what happened that day is a clear indication of how those folk would have reacted had Biden jumped into a war in Iran and then tripped over his wobbly octogenarian feet.
Lack of planning. Unrealistic expectations. Abrogating an existing agreement for political reasons. Scrambling to minimize the fallout that was not foreseen.
Biden's botched withdrawal from Afghanistan does not make Trump look better.
Jan. 6th was a spontaneous event. The Democrats' response was a coordinated, planned, prime time presentation of selected incidents and political messaging. What we saw on Jan. 6th was the raw truth. What Democrats presented was their version of truth.
Are you saying that you think Jan 6 was a good thing?!?!?
I am not saying Jan. 6th was a good thing. What I am saying is that Jan. 6th was not what Democrats tell us it was.
Jan. 6th was a bunch of Qanon jackasses acting like jackasses. The BLM riots were actually a greater threat to democracy than was the Jan. 6th riot. That does not mean Jan. 6th was a good thing. And acknowledging that Jan. 6th was a bad thing doesn't validate the Democratic dishonest politicization of Jan. 6th.
And I'm not arguing that it wasn't a royal fuck up of it's own, but it was miniscule in comparison to what Trump has gotten us into and the horrible deal he's making with Iran "for political reasons".
I believe my original point stands; rightwing conservatives would be losing their minds right now if it were Biden doing these things. But "because Trump", they're not just as docile as a goldfish towards this incompetent administration, they're vociferously defending it. The sheer arrogance of their hypocrisy is astounding.
You can easily change "right wing conservatives" to leftists and make the subject Afghanistan withdrawal, and you would be actually correct.
Wow. So clever.
Yeah, I agree with that.
No doubt. But those rightwing conservatives have not been silent over Trump's screwup, either.
We are indeed seeing more vocal opposition to this war and the 'deal' by Rs than what we have seen in the past. It is still pathetic given how bad this fuckup is and how outrageous Trump's lying to try to cover up his monumental failure, but we are seeing some progress.
Maybe there aren't as many rightwing conservatives as we've been led to believe.
There sure were far more Trump supporters than I imagined, given he was reelected. I strongly suspect that the herd has greatly diminished.
Well, I think you're wrong
I'm not sure Trump voters are the same thing as Trump supporters. Especially since 'dissent' has become such a large motivation for voting.
I believe the Trump voters are a superset of his extant supporters.
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There is a difference in dedication between a Trump "supporter" and a Trump voter. But, so what? They both failed the country. On election day in 2024 the nation knew Trump had tried to overthrow the government and was a traitor.
I asked AI yesterday to list all the lies Trump told about the 2020 election prior to Jan 6 2021 . It is a long list . People who voted for him in 2024 simply ignored this, which is astonishing. Many of these voters willfully ignored the truth about Trump, whether they are supporters or mere Trump voters.
It a maddening fact of our current reality. Too many people suffer from confirmation bias, partisanship, ignorance, apathy, etc. and the result is the election of crap politicians. The Trump phenomenon is probably the most extreme example of this bizarre and troubling aspect of the electorate.
If people are going to tolerate/ignore/excuse outrageously bad behavior inexplicably (even when it affects them personally), I have no idea how this can be solved other than through better education ... over time.
A sad litmus test right now for this mental failure is who believes the reflecting pool was vandalized.
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There are the tremors of discontent among the electorate. But there is also the quiet and not-so-quiet repositioning of eager young wannabe dictators to usurp the reigns of power upon Trump's departure.
To me it looks like Trump is pushing the "Save whatever acts" to sow even more uncertainty in the election processes. Regardless of success or failure, the ill-timed nature of the legislation combined with the various and sundry redistricting attempts throughout the country will form the basis of "It's all rigged" claims wherever any of his preferred candidates fail to win in November.
And that is my rosy outlook.
President Trump resorting to holding affordable housing hostage to push the SAVE Act indicates Trump has little political leverage left and virtually no political capital.
Redistricting may avoid a 'shellacking' but at present it doesn't look like it can bend the curve for control of the House. And redistricting doesn't affect Senate races.
I predict that will make him even less popular. The housing bill is bipartisan and people all over the country need affordable housing no what their politics are
So, what do you think that he will do? Go, "Okay. You got me?"
Trump has, since the 1970's, played from Roy Cohn's book of rules: Never admit defeat, always accuse others of doing what you yourself are doing before they can accuse you of doing it, punch back/double down, and drown them with legal costs no matter how frivolous. We knew this about him before he was elected the first time. It was a matter of public record, as was his dismal leadership ability and equally poor business sense. He was such a poor businessman that he bankrupted a casino and could not get a loan from any American institution. That is pretty bad.
So, to reiterate, what do you think he is going to do? We have basically watched as the jackal cornered himself. It is not likely that he will fade away peacefully into the night.
It does not matter if he is successful in passing the laws or how the outcome of the fights around redistricting turn out (I think most of them have been decided already). He will claim malfeasance as he has in all elections. This should be extraordinarily ironic for someone who constantly lies about and tries to subvert the will of the people, but this is Trump we are talking about. For him it is just more of the same. He is Captain Chaos.
TACO
TACO and claim credit.
I think his brand and MAGA's stance is more of a "No Lies Matter!" motto. These folk just love to have their ears tickled by their favorite pedophile-in-chief's tiny little lying mushroom.