New poll shows Democrats hold slim advantage in race for House control
By: Sarah Davis (The Hill)
Democrats only have a slim advantage? You know, Donald Trump is not becoming more popular. Down ballot Republicans are running on Trump's (ahem) coattails. And Democrats are struggling? Really?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
July 18, 2026 -- The Democratic Party still holds a slim advantage in their chances to retake control of the U.S. House this November, according to a new poll released on Saturday.
A Washington Post-Ipsos survey found that registered voters prefer Democrats by 3 percentage points, with 48 percent favoring Democratic candidates and 45 percent supporting Republican candidates for the lower chamber of Congress.
Of respondents who said they are "absolutely certain" to vote in House races this fall, 53 percent leaned toward supporting Democrats while 45 percent leaned toward Republicans, according to the survey.
The Washington Post-Ipsos poll found that this divide could be attributed to an "enthusiasm gap" between voters in each party's base, with Democrats more energized to take back control of the lower legislature this fall.
Democrats are 10 points more likely to be "certain" to vote this year compared to Republicans, according to the new poll.
Dissatisfaction within the Republican Party over the Trump administration's handling of the war with Iran, affordability issues and the president's general unpopularity all pose as hurdles to Republican candidates on the ballot this November.
Economic and job concerns ranked as a top issue for 54 percent of all respondents when considering their vote in the midterms. High prices, immigration and foreign policy all fell shortly behind.
Some voters also expressed discontent with either party's ability to address their central concerns.
Twenty-one percent of respondents said they trusted neither party to handle the economy, and 20 percent said neither is concerned with "the needs of people like you."
The results of this poll follows a recent forecast from Decision Desk HQ that predicted a 226-209 advantage for Democrats in the House after the midterms, while the Senate is projected to remain a 50-50 partisan split.
The Washington Post-Ipsos survey was conducted between July 8-13 among 2,648 U.S. adults with a margin of error of approximately 1.9 percentage points.
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Something is seriously wrong with the Democratic Party. Polls cannot be gerrymandered, so don't use that slacker excuse. What's happening with Democrats' diversity of coalitions?
Something is seriously wrong with the apparent two-party system Americans grew too comfortable with. The majority of Americans are quite frankly too fucking lazy and ignorant, especially about civics and the constitution, which makes them easily manipulated with rhetoric on both sides. They know the bullet points, the talking points, but that's about it. Beyond that, most Americans who do vote, do so along with their social groups. And in their minds "everyone they know" hates the other side of the political aisle, and the only ones they know who don't think the way they do are "those few crazy XYZ" which are always either some liberals living in a conservative area or conservatives living in a liberal area. They've all been convinced of their political views by group think and rhetoric, not by any actual study of policy or even reading their own party's mission statements, which I think few Democrats and Republicans ever do, and saying "Yes, this is what I believe and support".
The majority of Americans may just be tuning out.
That's becoming increasingly problematic for Democrats. There are now pro-Israel and anti-Israel factions in the party. The 'brown' coalition is fragmenting as it edges closer to a majority. There are now hyphens being added to Black-Americans: Haitian-Black-American, Indian-Black-American, Somali-Black-American. Women and transgender women are even at odds with each other.
Hasn't the Democratic Party invested a lot of political capital to convince their coalitions that identity is of primary importance? A lot of political activists are representing the interests of an identity and not the interests of the Democratic Party or a broad base of voters. That has progressed to the point where Democratic candidates are representing a demographic narrative. Wasn't that the appeal of Graham Platner? Platner was supposed to appeal to the white working class identity.
This is interesting because Trump is unpopular at historic levels, and there is no more Republican Party there is the Trump Party.
People dont know what they want.
Let the Democratic Socialists keep telling people what they want to do. That is great for republicans
Trump is as unpopular as ever. Inflation, gas things things like that cause anger and are always held against the President. Not to mention its a midterm, which is always a layup for the out of power party.
Yet, democrats are barely leading and aren't even certain to gain the few seats they need to take over the house. It shows just how batshit crazy and out of control the DSA/Democrats are. Republicans are really fortunate in their political enemies.