Explainer - What’s at stake for Trump in Israel’s deadlocked election?
By: Matt Spetalnick (Reuters via Internazionale)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
WASHINGTON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - With Israel’s election yielding no clear winner, President Donald Trump could face prolonged uncertainty over who will lead Washington’s closest Middle East ally as he confronts challenges from Iran and Gaza across the region.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc secured the most seats in Israel’s parliament but still lost its parliamentary majority on Tuesday despite Trump having endorsed him against a rival alliance of parties led by hawkish former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.
While Netanyahu seemed in a stronger position, neither side was projected to have an outright path to form a new government after Israel’s first election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the ensuing wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
The stage appeared to be set for a period of painstaking coalition bargaining – or possibly another election – while Netanyahu remains in power in a caretaker capacity.
The outcome will have implications for US-Israeli relations, which have been dominated by the joint fight against Iran, stalled Gaza peace efforts and signs of eroding US public support for Israel.
The uncertainty comes at a sensitive moment for Trump, when he and Netanyahu have threatened to join in another round of attacks against Iran.
“Israeli politics can be messy,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East adviser in Democratic and Republican administrations. From the US perspective, he said, “it would be good to get some clarity, but that’s easier said than done.”
WHICH OUTCOME WOULD TRUMP PREFER?
Netanyahu – a consummate political survivor who has had a close but sometimes turbulent relationship with Trump dating back decades – may have survived again. He is the longest-serving Israeli prime minister and the only one the US president has ever worked with.
Eisenkot, who projected an image as a political outsider and security-minded former general during the campaign, has seen his governing chances dimmed but not extinguished. He is not known to have ever met Trump.
Some analysts say creation of a broad unity government keeping Netanyahu in power might serve Trump’s interest in a politically stable Israeli partner. But neither side has shown a willingness to take that path.
Asked whether he was going to get involved in an effort to form a Netanyahu-led unity government, Trump told Axios on Wednesday he hadn’t thought about it, adding: “I will take a look.”
WHAT DOES THE ELECTION MEAN FOR THE WAR WITH IRAN?
Topping the list is how Trump might engage with Israel in the war against Iran, which has rocked the Middle East. The eight-month-old conflict has disrupted global energy supplies, pushed up US gasoline prices and driven down his approval ratings, imperiling his Republicans’ control of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections.
Trump, in his October 18 endorsement, insisted he wanted Netanyahu to remain in power to help him soon “finish the job” against Iran. The president said overnight that Netanyahu, who outperformed pre-election polls, had done “very well” and that his backing had boosted the Israeli leader.
Trump has repeatedly signaled that the US and Israel could restart attacks on Iran after the midterms, with some critics, including in Israel, suggesting Netanyahu might see it as a way to bolster his political standing as caretaker prime minister.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer on the Middle East, said any future Israeli leadership would likely be on the same page as Trump if he decides to escalate from the current stalemate with Israel’s regional arch-foe.
“It’s hard to imagine any real daylight between them on that point,” said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
Where Netanyahu and many Israelis have sometimes differed with Trump is when he has offered concessions in now-stalled negotiations with the Islamic Republic.
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR GAZA PEACE EFFORTS?
No matter how Israel’s next government shapes up, there is little reason to believe there will be any sweeping shift in tough policies toward the Palestinians.
This doesn’t bode well for breaking the diplomatic deadlock between Israel and Hamas and fully implementing Trump’s Gaza peace plan following the war there. Israel, in response to the militants’ deadly cross-border attack, leveled much of the enclave and killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.
Administration officials have privately expressed frustration over what they see as intransigence by Netanyahu, who has insisted that Hamas must first disarm.
Eisenkot, who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war, stressed his military credentials while positioning himself as a centrist domestically during the election campaign. He has vowed to break with Netanyahu’s far-right coalition allies, but not with the hawkish approach to security that has become more entrenched since the 2023 Hamas attack.
Like Netanyahu, Eisenkot opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas’ military wing must be destroyed.
But he has pledged to prevent violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, which Netanyahu’s government has been accused of tolerating. Settler attacks have drawn criticism in recent weeks from US officials worried the territory could become another Middle East flashpoint.
WHAT ABOUT ISRAEL’S GROWING ISOLATION?
Even as Israel’s political climate is expected to remain unsettled for some time, Trump may have to contend with what opinion polls project could be the Democrats’ takeover of one or both chambers of Congress in the midterms.
That could mean increased pressure from Democrats, whose support for Israel plunged over its conduct in the Gaza war, to curb billions of dollars in US aid and weapons supplies.
Some members of Trump’s MAGA base have also become increasingly critical of Israel, accusing it of having misled Trump – who campaigned for a second term on a promise to avoid foreign military interventions – into believing Iran could easily be defeated.
Trump, in an interview with Axios in June, cautioned Netanyahu about Israel’s deepening international isolation, and most analysts say the trend may be irreversible, even with a new government.
(Reporting By Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Don Durfee and Howard Goller)
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I suspect a divided Israeli government works to President Trumps advantage. Israel has become more dependent upon security provided to US military aircraft and personnel stationed in the country. And Trump can more easy bully and threaten a divided government.
The close election in Israel may actually be the best outcome for Trump.
While that 'may' be, I suspect that the best outcome for Trump would have been full support of Bibi. This at least puts some guard rails on the depraved dumbshit duo trying desperately to push a disgusting moronic religious war against Islam on the world.
This, along with massive Democrat wins here at home next week, will make those dumb shits at least think twice about breaking the law. Though I agree, it still may not be enough to stop the worthless scum bag Christo-fascists and violent inhumane Zionists from forcing the rest of us into an unwinnable war of attrition against their insane extremist Muslim counterparts. Why can't all these losers who believe in their wild fantasy universe of Gods and demons just go out to the middle of the desert somewhere and challenge each other to a Tide-pod challenge and to win they're not allowed to spit out the pods. I'm sure at least one of those groups God's is strong (and real) enough to protect them from a little Tide-pod, right?
What has Bibi's support gotten Trump so far? Netanyahu attacking Syria and Lebanon hasn't made Trump's exit from his Iran war any easier.
Joinng Israel's other neighbours, Syria started the war against Israel decades ago, and NEVER made peace with Israel as Jordan and Egypt did. As for Lebanon, Israel has never started an attack against Lebanon, but has only retaliated against Hezbollah's attacks on Israel.
What does that have to do with Donald Trump trying back away from the war he started? The glorious 'shock & awe' decapitation of the Iran government failed miserably. While Trump was trying to find a way out, Netanyahu escalated the war and dumped it Trump's lap.
What happens to Israel if the United States just walks away? That's the leverage Trump has with a divided and unstable Israeli government. Israel now has to do what the United States wants it to do. No amount of gaslighting about Jewish victimhood will change that.
You do realize that the Arab vote in Israel was more influential in this election? Israel isn't only about the Jewish Holocaust any longer. A divided Israeli government also gives more power to the Arab citizens of Israel. That also provides Trump leverage.
You said "Netanyahu attacking Syria and Lebanon...". I replied to indicate that Israel didn't ATTACK, it DEFENDED itself by retaliating attacks from them.
Yes, of course now that neither major contending party for leadership exists without a coalition, neither side would have the Arab parties who now have increased their position, join them since it would mean the tail would wag the dog.
Play all the word games you want. The facts are the IDF crossed into both Syria and Lebanon and occupied territory while Trump was trying to find a way to back out of the Iranian war. Netanyahu has only stirred shit in the region, he's done nothing to bring any sort of stability to region. Netanyahu can play that game because the United States would back him up. But that may not continue into the future.
Which provides an opening for Trump to use the Arabs to pressure the Israeli government. A divided Israeli government may be the best outcome for Donald Trump.
I think Bibi was already losing power and under investigations of corruption and desperately needed to get into a war he can use as an excuse to remain in power and he could only do that with the backing of the US military so he sold Trump some grand vision of Trump being a hero and bringer of world peace and this messiah vision and Trump of course loved it and told his servile dog Hegseth to do whatever Bibi wanted to make him look good. Then he walked away and is still telling anyone that will listen that everything is going as planned and he's dumbfounded as to why more people aren't praising him as the new messiah. That's how absolutely deluded Trump is and Bibi is just using him to stay in power and avoid prosecution. And anyone who thinks Bibi is an actual hero and savior to his people or even cares about his people is delusional. There's a reason he continues to refuse an investigation into his actions and his governments actions on and surrounding October 7th.
Israelis demand accountability over 7 October failures three years after attacks
Netanyahu rejects calls for immediate inquiry into 7 October security failures | Benjamin Netanyahu | The Guardian
I and my wife at that time had to PERSONALLY run and hide in a bomb shelter on a north Israel Kibbutz when the Lebanon Hezbollah sent bombs over north Israel, an UNPROVOKED attack. Have you ever had that experience?