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Why voters don't care about much else other than inflation

  
Via:  GregTx  •  one month ago  •  50 comments


Why voters don't care about much else other than inflation
The unprecedented criminal trial of a former and possibly future president may have ended in the press with a bang, but in the polls, it has landed with a thud.

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S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


The unprecedented criminal trial of a former and possibly future president may have ended in the press with a bang. But in the polls, Donald Trump's criminal conviction of 34 counts related to hush money payments has landed with a thud.

Despite a media-constructed narrative that President Joe Biden was on the cusp of a comeback, the general election needle barely moved throughout the Republican's trial in Manhattan. In the first general election poll conducted entirely after a jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records, Morning Consult found that the Democrat lost ground. Whereas Biden led Trump by 1 point in Morning Consult's pre-verdict poll, Trump now leads Biden by 1 point.

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The reason? Even though voters report the Manhattan case against Trump as one of the largest news stories of the year, no significant portion of the electorate seems to care about this Trump trial or any of Trump's trials. Most of the electorate doesn't seem to care about anything other than the economy, and even when it comes to the economy, voters mean they care about the worst inflationary crisis in 40 years more than anything else.

More than 3 in 5 voters polled by Pew said inflation is a "very big problem," more than any other problem plaguing the country, with nearly half of all Democrats and 4 in 5 Republicans agreeing. Meanwhile, the majority of both halves of the electorate rate their financial situations "poor" or "only fair," and half of all voters polled by Financial Times -Michigan Ross School of Business blamed Biden's economic policies specifically for the state of the economy.

Biden's deflections that unemployment remains low and the stock market is strong aren't working, if only because they don't reflect the reality of what is harming voters on a day-to-day basis. A CookPoliticalReport swing-state voters survey found that a 54% majority reported that cost of living is the best way to measure an economy's strength, compared to just 13% who cited low unemployment and 6% who said the stock market.

In our aging society with a labor shortage that is fueling inflation, it is price instability that robs voters of the real values of their paychecks. They can tell every single time they compare the price of a gallon of gas or loaf of bread from the beginning of Biden's presidency to now. (According to the consumer price index, their prices have increased by 48% and 29%, respectively.)

Nobody is angrier at this price instability than the generation most removed from the last time we saw inflation incinerate the value of paychecks. A Harvard Institute of Politics poll found that most voters aged 18 to 29 consider inflation our top pressing matter, with two-thirds of young black voters saying inflation is more important than healthcare, jobs, democracy, climate change, and the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

Price instability, of course, is the x-factor that explains why Trump is polling better against Biden now than he ever has polled in a general election in either 2020 or 2016. Unlike in 2016, when the possibility of the Trump presidency was an unknown quantity, or in 2020, when a Biden presidency was still untested, we've now lived roughly three years in Trump's America and three years in Biden's. While the sheer scope of the invasion at the southern border and overseas conflagrations may be objectively worse metrics on Biden's presidential scorecard, the soaring cost of, say, car insurance is a more salient issue for ordinary workers than the war in Ukraine or the Rio Grande homeless shelters overran with migrants.

As the Washington Examiner has illustrated countless times, inflation under Biden has resulted in a 5% decrease in the average weekly paycheck and a 19% increase in overall prices to date.

In no issue does Trump hold a larger lead over Biden than the economy: Fox News has him up 13 points over Biden for economic performance, Quinnipiac up 12, and Marquette up a whopping 21 points.

Both Trump and Biden oversaw low unemployment rates, likely a structural consequence of both the birth rate and legal immigration rates falling far too low, and solid stock markets, though Biden's performance has been almost entirely fueled by the Magnificent Seven overcompensating for the rest of the S&P 493 falling mostly flat. But inflation averaged below the Federal Reserve's maximum 2% target throughout Trump's presidency, while under Biden, it has averaged nearly three times that amount.

For all the bombast of payouts to porn stars and wars overseas, this election is coming down to which president made the public poorer. With a difference this stark, even the personal foibles of Trump are being overlooked.


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GregTx
Professor Guide
1  seeder  GregTx    one month ago
Nobody is angrier at this price instability than the generation most removed from the last time we saw inflation incinerate the value of paychecks. A Harvard Institute of Politics poll found that most voters aged 18 to 29 consider inflation our top pressing matter, with two-thirds of young black voters saying inflation is more important than healthcare, jobs, democracy, climate change, and the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
 
 
 
Robert in Ohio
Professor Guide
2  Robert in Ohio    one month ago

I am not a fan of using memes to make a point, but I will make an exception as this meme seems to voice the message that Bidenomics is unable to hear clearly from the actual working class in America

256

 
 
 
Robert in Ohio
Professor Guide
3  Robert in Ohio    one month ago

I have caught "meme fever" this morning, I can't use my words I must use memes

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MrFrost
Professor Guide
3.1  MrFrost  replied to  Robert in Ohio @3    one month ago

The inflation rate dropped by 50% between 2022 and 2023. 

An average rate of inflation can be calculated for each year:

  • In 2023, the average rate of inflation was 4.1%.
  • In 2022, the average rate of inflation was 8.0%.
  • In 2021, the average rate of inflation was 4.7%.
  • In 2020, the average rate of inflation was 1.2%.
 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
3.1.1  Greg Jones  replied to  MrFrost @3.1    one month ago

Your point? It was still lower when Trump was in office.

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Senior Guide
3.1.2  Right Down the Center  replied to  MrFrost @3.1    one month ago

Pretty sad when you celebrate the inflation rate of 4.1 like it is a victory.  I guess disingenuous spin is the only way to make brain dead Biden look good.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
3.1.3  Split Personality  replied to  Right Down the Center @3.1.2    one month ago
 I guess disingenuous spin is the only way to make brain dead Biden look good.

The average inflation rate from 1967 through 2023 was 4.1%.

Now you can look at the charts and blame Reagan for three of the highest years on record.

Of course sometimes the brain dead just look at the chart and pine for the good old days when inflation was 0.0 or even -.01  forgetting that that means the economy was in the toilet post Bush and during Obama's early struggles.

.01 during Trump's 2020 wasn't a good sign either, it reflected an economy dead from Covid.

4.1 is a victory when you are coming out of the Global Supply Chain/Covid fuck ups with as high as 9.1% rates in 2022.

Sorry if that doesn't fit your political agenda.

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Senior Guide
3.1.4  Right Down the Center  replied to  Split Personality @3.1.3    one month ago

Nice spin, thanks for proving my point.  Seems most of America isn't buying but but but supply chain, covid, putin, corp greed................. though.

 
 
 
MrFrost
Professor Guide
3.1.5  MrFrost  replied to  Greg Jones @3.1.1    one month ago
Your point?

Cutting the inflation rate in half isn't a good thing? 

 
 
 
MrFrost
Professor Guide
3.1.6  MrFrost  replied to  Right Down the Center @3.1.2    one month ago
Pretty sad when you celebrate the inflation rate of 4.1 like it is a victory.

In 1946 is was over 18%. Our inflation rate, on the global stage isn't very high. Keep watching that reich wing media, they'll tell ya what to think and say. 

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Senior Guide
3.1.7  Right Down the Center  replied to  MrFrost @3.1.6    one month ago

How many Americans care about the inflation rate in 1946 or in other countries when deciding who to vote for? I hope the dems can put up a better spin than that.

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Senior Guide
3.1.8  Right Down the Center  replied to  MrFrost @3.1.5    one month ago

Cutting it in half after trippeling it is nothing to crow about.

Spin baby spin.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
3.1.9  JBB  replied to  MrFrost @3.1.6    one month ago

Remember what you are dealing with...

original

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
3.1.10  Split Personality  replied to  Right Down the Center @3.1.4    one month ago
but supply chain, covid, putin, corp greed................. though.

Thanks for agreeing they all affected inflation.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
3.1.11  Split Personality  replied to  Greg Jones @3.1.1    one month ago
It was still lower when Trump was in office.

Because COVID stopped the economy dead in it's tracks.

We wouldn't let ships from many country's unload their cargoes in LA, hence the beginning of the supply chain issues and inflation.

While the inflation rate was almost zero at one point 

so was the amount of paper products like toilet paper and paper towels.

Empty shelves like the Soviet Union.

Yearn for those good old days Greg, yearn baby yearn.

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Senior Guide
3.1.12  Right Down the Center  replied to  Split Personality @3.1.10    one month ago

Try reading it again

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
3.1.13  Split Personality  replied to  Right Down the Center @3.1.12    one month ago

I read it fine, I just thought the sarc tag was unnecessary

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Senior Guide
3.1.14  Right Down the Center  replied to  Split Personality @3.1.13    one month ago

You can never be sure 

 
 
 
Drinker of the Wry
Senior Expert
3.1.15  Drinker of the Wry  replied to  MrFrost @3.1.5    one month ago
Cutting the inflation rate in half isn't a good thing? 

Did you think so when Reagan cut Carter's inflation from 9.9% to 4.6%?

 
 
 
GregTx
Professor Guide
3.1.16  seeder  GregTx  replied to  MrFrost @3.1.5    one month ago

Mmmm, so if Trump is elected and the inflation rate goes up roughly 9% from it's current level and it falls to a mere 6%, would you consider that a good thing?

 
 
 
GregTx
Professor Guide
3.1.17  seeder  GregTx  replied to  Split Personality @3.1.13    one month ago

I didn't see one but, yeah no sarc tag needed. 

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
3.1.18  Split Personality  replied to  GregTx @3.1.16    one month ago

Why would it go to 9%?  New tariffs, old tariffs reinstated? 25% tariffs?

Whenever the Fed get's it drop to the average it's a good thing.

 
 
 
GregTx
Professor Guide
3.1.19  seeder  GregTx  replied to  Split Personality @3.1.18    one month ago
Whenever the Fed get's it to drop to the average it's a good thing.

Yep, are we at the average?...

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
3.1.20  Split Personality  replied to  Drinker of the Wry @3.1.15    one month ago

Reagan actually inherited 13.91% at the inauguration,  some of which was caused by his own rhetoric during the election.

Reagan "let it" ramp up to a high of 14.73% and it took him/the FED three more  years to bring it back to the 4.10% average for the remainder of his two terms.

 By 1984 I believe the feeling was one of relief to have an average in the high 3s, low 4's.

Just like today.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
3.1.21  Split Personality  replied to  GregTx @3.1.19    one month ago

4.1% average from 1967 through 2023

 
 
 
GregTx
Professor Guide
3.1.22  seeder  GregTx  replied to  Split Personality @3.1.21    one month ago

Do you have a link that contains data? Oh wait there is 3.1.....

 
 
 
Drinker of the Wry
Senior Expert
3.1.23  Drinker of the Wry  replied to  Split Personality @3.1.20    one month ago
By 1984 I believe the feeling was one of relief to have an average in the high 3s, low 4's. Just like today.

Walter Mondale on Reagan and inflation, Oct 1884:

“Real interest rates—the real cost of interest—will remain very, very high, and many economists are predicting that we're moving into a period of very slow growth because the economy is tapering off and may be a recession. I get it down to a level below 2 percent of gross national product with a policy that's fair. I've stood up and told the American people that I think it's a real problem, that it can destroy long-term economic growth, and I've told you what I think should be done.”

Just like today.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
3.1.25  Split Personality  replied to  Drinker of the Wry @3.1.23    one month ago

True but that' appears to be about the interest rates not inflation.

Still,

Just like today.

When gas was .18 per gallon I shrugged

When it went up to .25 I worked a few more hours a week.

When it went up to .67 I got a job that included a car, insurance and gasjrSmiley_82_smiley_image.gif

I suspect that applies to most people today.

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
3.1.26  Tessylo  replied to  Split Personality @3.1.11    one month ago

co-vid - supply chain issues - corporate greed

A lot of folks part of the criminal enterprise of an administration of the former 'president' profited greatly on inside knowledge of Co-Vid and its' impact

 
 
 
GregTx
Professor Guide
3.1.27  seeder  GregTx  replied to  Tessylo @3.1.26    one month ago
profited greatly on inside knowledge of Co-Vid and its' impact

Indeed...

 
 
 
Drinker of the Wry
Senior Expert
3.1.28  Drinker of the Wry  replied to  Tessylo @3.1.26    one month ago

Do you think that Biden administration push of another round of COVID $1,400 checks as part of the American Rescue Plan, 2021 was inflationary?  Hou about the infrastructure increase as inflation was heating up?

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
3.1.29  Tessylo  replied to  GregTx @3.1.27    one month ago

so you agree #34, the former 'president' profited from inside knowledge as well as the rest of his criminal enterprise of an administration

progress

 
 
 
Jeremy Retired in NC
Professor Principal
3.1.30  Jeremy Retired in NC  replied to  MrFrost @3.1.5    one month ago
Cutting the inflation rate in half isn't a good thing? 

Not when it raises 8% it isn't.  It's still 3 times higher than when Traitor Joe took office.

 
 
 
Snuffy
Professor Participates
4  Snuffy    one month ago

Everybody knows that kitchen table issues are the largest issues in an election yet we continue to have many who refuse to acknowledge that simple fact. They will show up on the thread to overemphasize all that the current administration has done without any real depth of context behind their words. It took him months to realize it but even Joe Biden has stopped talking about Bidenomics as that policy has not done well for the average person in America. 

People see this problem every time they go to the grocery store. Younger people see it every month when they pay rent. With the average cost for a house going so high and interest rates where they currently are, how many younger people feel the American dream is dead? 

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.1  Split Personality  replied to  Snuffy @4    one month ago
Everybody knows that kitchen table issues are the largest issues in an election yet we continue to have many who refuse to acknowledge that simple fact.

When the choice is between two qualified candidates like Bush and Clinton, sure.

They will show up on the thread to overemphasize all that the current administration has done without any real depth of context behind their words.

"They"?  I guess that puts you in the other camp? 

People see this problem every time they go to the grocery store

Absolutely but I don't think of it as evil or Joes fault any more than it was Reagans fault inflation was 14% in 1980.

We went to the store the other day and as sellers are always loathe to relinquish that higher price, they are giving things away that reflect the lower inflation rates. Buy 4 get 2 free Doritos, buy 3 get 1 free snacks which cost more than a whole grilled chicken recently.

Younger people see it every month when they pay rent.

Renters along with everyone else.

how many younger people feel the American dream is dead? 

Oh the drama. Delayed perhaps but not dead. 

 
 
 
Snuffy
Professor Participates
4.1.1  Snuffy  replied to  Split Personality @4.1    one month ago
Everybody knows that kitchen table issues are the largest issues in an election yet we continue to have many who refuse to acknowledge that simple fact.
When the choice is between two qualified candidates like Bush and Clinton, sure.

Except that's not who we have for this election, but many people will still look at those kitchen table issues (ie, what directly affects them) in deciding who to vote for. If they are unhappy, history and human nature tells us they won't be likely to vote for the incumbent. 

They will show up on the thread to overemphasize all that the current administration has done without any real depth of context behind their words.
"They"?  I guess that puts you in the other camp? 

As compared to the Bidenestas who swear that Joe is the next best thing since sliced white bread? Yep, then I'm in the other camp cuz I don't like what this administration has done to this country and will not vote for him. 

People see this problem every time they go to the grocery store

Absolutely but I don't think of it as evil or Joes fault any more than it was Reagans fault inflation was 14% in 1980.

We went to the store the other day and as sellers are always loathe to relinquish that higher price, they are giving things away that reflect the lower inflation rates. Buy 4 get 2 free Doritos, buy 3 get 1 free snacks which cost more than a whole grilled chicken recently.

No, it's not evil and I doubt very much that they are even thinking about Reagan when they go shopping. But it is common to blame the person in charge and as been stated several years back, the buck stops with him. Regardless of how much impact Biden has in inflation, he's the one in charge and a lot of people will blame him for it. Basic human nature.

how many younger people feel the American dream is dead? 
Oh the drama. Delayed perhaps but not dead. 

Drama? What a laugh. I could ask that you cut the bullshit but it seems that's all you can reply with. If you re-read that sentence, you will see that I asked how many younger people FEEL that the dream is dead. Not that it is dead. History teaches us that it's all a cycle and eventually salaries will improve enough that this will be the norm and people will once again be able to afford to live. 

Not sure how you missed that, I thought all leftists were into feelings. 

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.1.2  Split Personality  replied to  Snuffy @4.1.1    one month ago
I'm in the other camp cuz I don't like what this administration has done to this country and will not vote for him. 

Once again you failed to enumerate what Joe has "done to this country".

That's a meaningless election time mantra.  Heard it all through Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush and Trump.

Except for the past inflation, and the decades of kicking the immigration issues down the road, only to be killed over and over again by political parties or candidates

the usual markers for a successful administration are all there for all to see, the stock market has broken record after record, crime, specifically murder is down nationally, employment is up, unemployment is low, manufacturing here is increased, wages are up.  Inflation and prices are dropping.

Young people by definition will always be renters first, that doesn't kill the dream of ownership, it drives it.

Not sure how you missed that, I thought all leftists were into feelings. 

Not sure how "you people" get to decide who is a leftist, that humorously reminds me how incensed TiG or Freewill get by being called out as either flaming liberals or whacko conservatives.

SMH

 
 
 
Snuffy
Professor Participates
4.1.3  Snuffy  replied to  Split Personality @4.1.2    one month ago

Good job, I think you got most of the party rhetoric in there. You have a nice day.

 
 
 
GregTx
Professor Guide
4.1.4  seeder  GregTx  replied to  Snuffy @4.1.3    one month ago

As well as calling out two members not even involved in the conversations...

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
4.1.5  Tessylo  replied to  Split Personality @4.1.2    one month ago

Truth!

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
4.1.6  CB  replied to  Split Personality @4.1.2    one month ago
Not sure how "you people" get to decide who is a leftist, that humorously reminds me how incensed TiG or Freewill get by being called out as either flaming liberals or whacko conservatives.

In this new world of politics we are struggling to survive, a 'leftist' is code for anybody not MAGA/conservative. It's a default position. Address it head-on or just ignore it.

 
 
 
GregTx
Professor Guide
4.1.7  seeder  GregTx  replied to  CB @4.1.6    one month ago

Now that's fucking ironic.....

 
 
 
CB
Professor Principal
4.1.8  CB  replied to  GregTx @4.1.7    one month ago

Not if you don't say why. Up to this point it 's just foul.

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
4.1.9  Tessylo  replied to  CB @4.1.8    one month ago

True.  Just another deflection because he has no answer

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.1.10  Split Personality  replied to  Snuffy @4.1.3    one month ago

And still you haven't answered the question...or explained you own "feelings" yet.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.1.11  Split Personality  replied to  GregTx @4.1.4    one month ago

Calling out?  

SMH

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.1.12  Split Personality  replied to  CB @4.1.6    one month ago
a 'leftist' is code for anybody not MAGA/conservative. It's a default position. Address it head-on or just ignore it.

I fear that is the truth.

 
 
 
Drinker of the Wry
Senior Expert
4.1.13  Drinker of the Wry  replied to  Split Personality @4.1.12    one month ago

So are you addressing it head on or just ignoring it as CB advises?

 
 
 
George
Junior Expert
5  George    one month ago

256

 
 

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