Baron Creek

Veepstakes!

  
By:  Baron Creek  •  Politics  •  4 weeks ago  •  33 comments

Veepstakes!
If a politician found he had cannibals among his constituents, he would promise them missionaries for dinner. - H. L. Mencken

The Democratic Primaries are nowhere close to being finished, but it is never too early to talk Vice Presidential nominees, imo. Sure, many names come to mind, but who would help the ticket the most?

BTW, I am ignoring the potential/actual impact of covid-19 and stock market gyrations. Making election predictions based on either of those would entail talking about the lives and livelihoods of fellow humans. Frankly, I find such thinking as horrible and symptomatic of a diseased mind. I would much prefer to think about elections as if none of the bad stuff is taking place. I acknowledge there could be factors... but wishing/hoping such things might impact the election is TERRIBLE. ‘Nuff said.

I set out to determine which person is best suited to help. I did make some assumptions along the way, giving Biden the nod as the presidential nominee. I say that as I foresee him hitting the delegate count to ensure 1st ballot nomination by end of April. That is 5 weeks prior to Clinton’s 2016 results. That would be 5 more weeks to prepare the convention for limited chaos and run a few names up the flagpole.

Thus far (including my estimates for 3-10-20), Sanders has collected 343 delegates to Biden’s 277 in traditional blue states. Biden has collected 344 delegates in traditional red states to Sanders’ 227. In the toss up states... it is Biden’s 276 to Sanders’ 183.

I probably should define blue/red/tossup. Blue would be places like California and New York. Very difficult to imagine a republican winning. Red would be places like Indiana, Kentucky, South Caroline, etc. Again, the odds of a democrat winning takes a leap into fantasy island. Toss-ups would be states that could go either way and/or  is leaning one way or the other or in simple language... not considered a slam dunk.

512

Time to transition my thinking from delegate math to Electoral Math, as any delegates Warren, Bloomberg, et al might have... are likely rendered unnecessary in the V.P. stakes.

Currently, available information regarding Electoral outcomes are fairly split between Generic Democrat and Generic Republican. Generic Republican is likely clearly understood as Trump. The Generic Democrat gets tricky. Example: It is easy for a Sanders’ support to say they would vote democratic over Trump... but are they really considering Biden as a viable alternative to Sanders and vice versa? 

Which brings me to the importance of the V.P. selection. I’ve heard many names tossed about and criteria, such as (in no specific order) age, gender, race, ethnic origin, religion, orientation, policies, etc. 

Whatever I set out to do... I failed. 

  • Biden/Harris: great idea and would help win over that swing state of California /s. 

  • Biden/Bloomberg: that takes some imagination to consider, as Bloomberg doesn’t offer much more than Biden could do on his own, although could shift some lean blue into blue, as well as shifting some lean red back into dead even. 

  • Biden/Sanders: Uh-oh, now we’re hallucinating. Or are we? 

  • Biden/Warren: Can nail down a couple of lean blue and could help turn Ohio blue, while possibly keeping N.H. blue and might also help in Florida. 

  • Biden/Buttigieg: Help keep N.H blue and possibly a factor in turning PA. back to blue and maybe some assistance in Arizona and help in Florida. Please don’t say he could flip Indiana. Trump could dump Pence for Haley and it would stay red. Of course, if he were to pick someone from KY, it likely would go blue. Some things are difficult to explain. 

  • Biden/Klobuchar: Could help in a few states, such as Florida.

  • Biden/Sinema: Might help flip Arizona, could hurt in other places. Listed here to simply make the case for outside the box thinking.

  • Biden/high profile Texan: See how the game is played?

Ready to play?

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Baron Creek
1  author  Baron Creek    4 weeks ago

This is a nice diversion for me. BTW, thanks for the add tag advice. I'll get there some day.

 
 
 
Kavika
2  Kavika     4 weeks ago

Some interesting combinations Baron. 

How about Biden/Booker?

 
 
 
Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom
2.1  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom  replied to  Kavika @2    4 weeks ago
How about Biden/Booker?

I've been thinking about that one, too.  

 
 
 
Split Personality
2.1.1  Split Personality  replied to  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom @2.1    4 weeks ago

My dream would be to see Christine Todd Whitman in the WH.  One very smart lady but she too, is 73.

A more realistic ticket would be Biden / Jennifer Granholm, who is only 60

 
 
 
Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom
2.1.2  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom  replied to  Split Personality @2.1.1    4 weeks ago
Jennifer Granholm

She's on CNN right now.  Having been born in Canada, would she be a viable choice?

 
 
 
Split Personality
2.1.3  Split Personality  replied to  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom @2.1.2    4 weeks ago

Interesting, I did not know that.  She is constitutionally ineligible to be President.

 
 
 
Texan1211
2.1.4  Texan1211  replied to  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom @2.1.2    4 weeks ago

Granholm isn't eligible to be President or Vice-President.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
2.1.5  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom @2.1    4 weeks ago
How about Biden/Booker?
I've been thinking about that one, too.

Ditto.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
2.1.6  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom @2.1.2    4 weeks ago
"Having been born in Canada, would she be a viable choice?"

Nah.  She'd be too polite, and would probably spell words wrong.

 
 
 
Split Personality
2.1.7  Split Personality  replied to  Texan1211 @2.1.4    4 weeks ago

Thanks for the echo...

 
 
 
Split Personality
2.1.8  Split Personality  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @2.1.6    4 weeks ago

you would think that after years as an AG and Governour of Michigan she would get that vanvouver nonse out of her spelling /s  jrSmiley_91_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
2.1.9  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Split Personality @2.1.8    4 weeks ago

What I'd like to know is whether she called herself the Honorable Governor of Michigan, or the Honourable Governor of Michigan. I guess she had no difficulty when driving both ways across the Detroit River.

 
 
 
Texan1211
2.1.10  Texan1211  replied to  Split Personality @2.1.7    4 weeks ago

You are entirely welcome.

Any old time.

jrSmiley_9_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Kavika @2    4 weeks ago

Outside of New Jersey, which is already blue... what does he offer to the ticker. Besides, didn't I read his girlfriend voted Sanders after he endorsed Biden. Not that it matters, but it is funny.

 
 
 
Kavika
2.2.1  Kavika   replied to  Baron Creek @2.2    4 weeks ago

Yes, they is a division in the house...LOL

Booker is popular among the black voters so there is that. Plus I like him...

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
2.2.2  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Kavika @2.2.1    4 weeks ago

He's a nice guy. Well liked in his neck of the woods, too.

 
 
 
Split Personality
3  Split Personality    4 weeks ago

Interesting that the MI raw data is live while the polls are still open for a few more minutes.

Bloomberg appears to be running third with 2% of the vote /s

 
 
 
BeastOfTheEast
4  BeastOfTheEast    4 weeks ago

The Democrats eliminated all the women and blacks running for the nomination. Now they have to prove they're the party of diversity so the VP MUST be a person of color or a woman, preferably a black woman.

Actually, Biden should choose a black doctor for his VP, he's in need of a doctor to treat his dementia.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
4.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  BeastOfTheEast @4    4 weeks ago

I hope the republicans continue that line of attack right up until the election. jrSmiley_68_smiley_image.png

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
4.1.1  Freedom Warrior  replied to  Baron Creek @4.1    4 weeks ago

Well if it’s effective why not.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
4.1.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Freedom Warrior @4.1.1    4 weeks ago

Yeah, you're right. It worked perfectly for the democrats in 1984. No wait... it blew up. But that won't happen in 2020, as elders are not a significant voting block for Trump. Oh wait they are. They only way to find out... is for republicans to continue poking fun at elders and their senior moments. 

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
4.1.3  Freedom Warrior  replied to  Baron Creek @4.1.2    4 weeks ago

So he’s banking on on the simp-pathetic geezer vote. Great strategy.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
4.2  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  BeastOfTheEast @4    4 weeks ago
"...the VP MUST be a person of color or a woman, preferably a black woman."

How about Ilhan Omar?

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
4.2.1  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @4.2    4 weeks ago

ha ha.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
4.2.2  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @4.2.1    4 weeks ago

Actually I think Bernie would be more likely to choose her.

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
5  Freedom Warrior    4 weeks ago

I suppose they could dredge up a black Islamic transvestite for VP.

Or Michelle Obama, close enough.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
6  Perrie Halpern R.A.    4 weeks ago

Does it have to be a dem right now, or could we find a Republican who will jump parties? Say like Condi Rice? (just thinking out of the box)

 
 
 
Baron Creek
6.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @6    4 weeks ago

I suppose there might be some RINOs that fit that bill, but we might also consider some that have already jumped. A couple of blue dog democrats come to mind, if not for the old white guy label.

I wouldn't rule out all of the primary contenders and there are certainly some state/regional level individuals that need to be vetted for national exposure, imo. I would add in independents, but given the two party hold on politics, they would be few and far between.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
7  Buzz of the Orient    4 weeks ago
"Trump could dump Pence for Haley..."

I don't see that happening - Pence has the Evangelist votes, and Nikki is too smart to team up with Trump.  IMO she has a good shot at 2024.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
7.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @7    4 weeks ago

Sometimes context is important.

 
 
 
loki12
8  loki12    4 weeks ago

The best thing about a Biden/Booker ticket is the bumper sticker.

vote quid pro Joe and quid pro slow.

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
9  Dean Moriarty    4 weeks ago

Biden / Any random nurse from Bellevue asylum to help him change his bed pan and take his meds on time. 

 
 
 
It Is ME
10  It Is ME    4 weeks ago

He'll chose a VP running mate when...… "Oh Look ..... TACOS" !

Care Giver: Joe.... we're in "Chik-Fil-A" !

Joe: "I'll gladly pay you next Tuesday for a hamburger today" !