Baron Creek

Lack of Thought Thursday

  
By:  Baron Creek  •  Nonsense and Ramblings  •  3 weeks ago  •  22 comments

Lack of Thought Thursday
There's a bunch of poopheads running around, trying to figure out where the stink is coming from - Leonard Haynes ca. 1969

For some reason that quote popped into my head. It may have a more correct attribution, but I remember it from that guy and for the record is wasn't poop. The word you are thinking, was much less used in those days, especially from him.

I use virus software on my computer... will it protect me from covid-19?

Sports

My most sincere apologies for possibly misleading anyone from a statement I made 6 days ago.

March Madness is reaching new heights. Don’t worry, it shouldn’t impact those all so important pools. 

Start worrying! No stop worrying and start getting over it, imo. MLB has suspended operations and along with everything else, it would be foolish to assume the NCAA tournament would take place as scheduled. Just heard it HAS been cancelled.

Trump

I don't particularly blame Trump for the current crisis. I realize in his own mind that he thinks he is in total control of everything... but he's not. I only caught snippets of his comments last night and it seemed tepid. Perhaps they should have rented an arena filled with cardboard cutouts and piped in soounds cheering crowds. He might have been more enthusiastic. 

As for the content, or what I have read... it was clearly doomed to fall flat. I would say it comes as a absolutely no surprise, but I've considered the D.C. crowd as nothing more than a cesspool, incapable of fiscal responsibility or even appropriate legislation. It's been this way for a long time. Trump campaigned on ridding this cesspool, but it appears to be more of a case of "birds of a feather, flock together."

That's not meant to disparage all those that still believe their candidate is somehow superior to any other. That bar is set so low, it is corroding near the bottom of the cesspool. 

The idea of stoppage of payroll tax collections would be very extremely beneficial in the short term, the longer term damage would be severe. It is not called the 3rd rail of politics without reason.

A massive public works and spending bill is likely to take place (bailouts), as a lot of companies are only now beginning to feel the supply disruptions. European and U.S. ports are starting to slow down dramatically. The Port of LA is already idling drivers. We are about to find out how much the global marketplace is intertwined. Not to point out anyone in particular, but there is one well know American company already in financial trouble... prior to the virus.

Markets

Hard to decipher what is taking place. The stock market and treasury market are going in different directions... so is gold for that matter. The FED made a "bold" attempt to remedy and it worked... for about an hour. Basically nothing substantial is taking place in western markets to stem the tide. With the futures market in China dropping so much, I expect the Chinese to do "something", to quell the fears. 

Going forward

I am running out of ideas to talk about and with absolutely no sports on TV, coupled with NCAA tournaments typically being when networks do re-runs... what's a fella to do? Please don't say netflix, hulu, etc. I scraped the bottom of the barrel with them, which is how I wound up here!!

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Baron Creek
1  author  Baron Creek    3 weeks ago

I guess I'll scrounge around for something else to do!

 
 
 
Nerm_L
2  Nerm_L    3 weeks ago
Hard to decipher what is taking place. The stock market and treasury market are going in different directions... so is gold for that matter. The FED made a "bold" attempt to remedy and it worked... for about an hour. Basically nothing substantial is taking place in western markets to stem the tide. With the futures market in China dropping so much, I expect the Chinese to do "something", to quell the fears. 

Yep stocks, gold, and bonds aren't tracking.  Currencies are behaving a little strange, too.  The DXY is down but the dollar is up compared to the major currencies; doesn't seem like anyone is stuffing mattresses.  My WAG is that foreign investors are bailing because they need cash.  While everyone has been distracted by shortages of sanitizer and toilet paper, Russia and OPEC has started an oil war.  They may be strapped for cash.  China may be dumping stocks to keep its boat afloat, too.  To me it looks like there won't be a flip from safety to risk that will drive a rebound.

There isn't a shortage in the money supply and weakness in banks and finance doesn't seem to driving the downturn.  Monetary stimulus won't accomplish much except maybe encourage a round of stock buy backs.  Looks to me like the immediate need is to support paychecks; the banks don't need to be saved (at least yet).

Cocktail recipes are always a good topic for discussion.  120 proof is supposed to do the trick for COVID-19.

 
 
 
MUVA
2.1  MUVA  replied to  Nerm_L @2    3 weeks ago

I'm going to try that right now.

 
 
 
Nerm_L
2.1.1  Nerm_L  replied to  MUVA @2.1    3 weeks ago
I'm going to try that right now.

Neat?

 
 
 
loki12
2.2  loki12  replied to  Nerm_L @2    3 weeks ago

You have to look for the opportunities, while everyone was out buying toilet paper I bought all the plungers, now what are they going to do?

Checkmate Bitches!

 
 
 
Nerm_L
2.2.1  Nerm_L  replied to  loki12 @2.2    3 weeks ago
You have to look for the opportunities, while everyone was out buying toilet paper I bought all the plungers, now what are they going to do?

Feeling flush, eh?

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.3  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Nerm_L @2    3 weeks ago
There isn't a shortage in the money supply and weakness in banks and finance doesn't seem to driving the downturn. 

No, not yet. It could be sitting in all the wrong locations, considering the repo market. Retail Banks are my worry, for very personal reasons. They (ones I'm interested in) are currently well positioned for a modest downturn, but my initial concern was the impact in the U.S. of those supply disruptions, that are starting to come ashore. The unknown being the extent of potential layoffs, job losses, etc. and impact on consumer sentiment.

I suspect Covid-19 is sucking the air out of consumer sentiment as I type. That's piling on (big time) to my previous concern. 

On the political front, the timeline going forward, suggests very strongly the democrats will take the blame for any recession. I don't particularly care for that happening, but that is what the timeline AND my view of the public perception at election time... leads me to that conclusion.

Don't drink, but do have plenty of isopropyl alcohol on hand. 

 
 
 
Nerm_L
2.3.1  Nerm_L  replied to  Baron Creek @2.3    3 weeks ago
No, not yet. It could be sitting in all the wrong locations, considering the repo market. Retail Banks are my worry, for very personal reasons. They (ones I'm interested in) are currently well positioned for a modest downturn, but my initial concern was the impact in the U.S. of those supply disruptions, that are starting to come ashore. The unknown being the extent of potential layoffs, job losses, etc. and impact on consumer sentiment.

I think the banks are okay for now.  If paychecks dry up there will be pressure on reserves.  The Fed shouldn't pull the trigger too soon.  Social distancing will stretch out time before credit becomes a problem.

I suspect Covid-19 is sucking the air out of consumer sentiment as I type. That's piling on (big time) to my previous concern. 

Social distancing is having an immediate impact.  I suspect the stalled supply chain has knocked down inventories, too.

On the political front, the timeline going forward, suggests very strongly the democrats will take the blame for any recession. I don't particularly care for that happening, but that is what the timeline AND my view of the public perception at election time... leads me to that conclusion.

I'm not so sure about that.  Trump's the scapegoat; I don't think the parties are going to get much blame.  The big risk is to Biden.  If he blows looking Presidential then he won't garner a lot of trust.

It's kinda like the three big professions when I went through long ago and far away: medicine, law, and engineering.

Doctors were expected to be God.  Lawyers were expected to convince people they were God.  And engineers were expected to avoid making God angry.

Is Biden going to be a doctor, lawyer, or engineer?

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.3.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Nerm_L @2.3.1    3 weeks ago
Trump's the scapegoat;

I figure he will get lucky. It's the timeline and short attention spans

If the coronavirus did not get to our shores, the supply chain would have been disrupted and hammered growth in the 2nd qtr., imo. By election day, things would have been coming back and the back and forth sniping would likely have been placed on Trump.

But, covid-19 did come ashore. I have no doubt that zero response would have killed a large number of people, especially amongst old folks like me. However, I cannot produce an alternate universe to prove my point. Extraordinary measures are being taken to reduce the impact. I suspect the measures will indeed have a very positive impact and by 3rd qtr. it will be yesterday's news.

However the impact of those extraordinary measures on the economy will have magnified the disrupted supply chain's impact on the economy, and it might be 4th quarter before we truly start to see a turn around. 

In any case, by election, my bet is voters will see the results of the extraordinary measures, compare it to seasonal flu and declare it an massive over-reaction resulting in a recession, etc. 

Any American style root cause analysis generally results in blame assignment. I think the blame will be assigned to the democrats. Wish it weren't so, just have to wait and see. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.3.3  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Nerm_L @2.3.1    3 weeks ago
It's kinda like the three big professions when I went through long ago and far away: medicine, law, and engineering.

I thought it was economics. Wrong person, sorry.

 
 
 
Nerm_L
2.3.4  Nerm_L  replied to  Baron Creek @2.3.2    3 weeks ago
I figure he will get lucky. It's the timeline and short attention spans

If the coronavirus did not get to our shores, the supply chain would have been disrupted and hammered growth in the 2nd qtr., imo. By election day, things would have been coming back and the back and forth sniping would likely have been placed on Trump.

But, covid-19 did come ashore. I have no doubt that zero response would have killed a large number of people, especially amongst old folks like me. However, I cannot produce an alternate universe to prove my point. Extraordinary measures are being taken to reduce the impact. I suspect the measures will indeed have a very positive impact and by 3rd qtr. it will be yesterday's news.

However the impact of those extraordinary measures on the economy will have magnified the disrupted supply chain's impact on the economy, and it might be 4th quarter before we truly start to see a turn around. 

In any case, by election, my bet is voters will see the results of the extraordinary measures, compare it to seasonal flu and declare it an massive over-reaction resulting in a recession, etc. 

Any American style root cause analysis generally results in blame assignment. I think the blame will be assigned to the democrats. Wish it weren't so, just have to wait and see. 

Well, let's gaze into the ol' cracked magic 8 ball.  Maybe we can see hints of the future.

Social distancing measures has made politics the only game in town.  The distractions of sports, social events, and vacations are off the table.  People will have more time to focus attention on politics since there isn't anything else going on.  The public will become more informed simply because there isn't anything else competing for eyeballs.  Politicians want public attention?  Well now they have it.

While the public's attention on politics increases, the public will become more intolerant of partisan sniping.  The issue is the coronavirus crisis and how politics addresses the crisis.  Those who are most partisan will be rejected.  The nature of the coronavirus crisis will force politics to become more populist and more nationalist.

Monetarists and globalists still control the dissemination of economic news.  The nature of economic news will try to focus the public's attention on the stock market (and the financial sector) rather than the fundamentals of the economy.  A lot will depend upon how the economic press portrays the failings of globalization.  The evidence really does suggest that globalization has been a giant brain fart; so spinning the news becomes more important.  The public will also see the store shelves and that won't be easy to spin.  Why can't Amazon deliver hand sanitizer?  Public opinion concerning big retailers may shift dramatically; that's yet to be seen.

Stimulus will be closely scrutinized by the public and that will have a major impact on politics.  The economic press will compare any stimulus to the Great Recession.  It's unclear if the public will buy that spin or not since they will also see the store shelves.  The 2008 financial crisis didn't cause shortages.  The supply chain has been disrupted; foreign producers aren't making the stuff to fill those store shelves.  Inflation caused by shortages can't be fixed with monetary policy so any actions taken by the Federal Reserve will be ineffective and viewed as an attempt to save the rich.  This crisis will become an income problem, not a credit problem.

Downstream impacts will be more noticeable.  Child care is going to become a larger issue as schools close.  Food security is going to become a larger issue without school cafeterias.  Elder care is going to become a larger issue.  The debate over health care will shift more toward being a right rather than a privilege.  And more government involvement in health care may become a higher priority; private health care has been claiming it can't function without government direction and support. And medical experts have informed the public that dependence on private health care means there won't be vaccines or treatments for 12 to 18 months.  The service sector of the economy (and the gig economy) is going to be hit hardest which will increase the importance of labor issues and income security in politics.

Right now the COVID-19 virus is controlling the timeline.  COVID-19 can't be legislated away, can't be stimulated away, and can't be ignored.  The public and private sector has no control; what is required is for both to react to the virus.  The public will be demanding results rather than reassurances.  Politicians won't be able to talk their way out of this crisis.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.3.5  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Nerm_L @2.3.4    3 weeks ago
the public will become more intolerant of partisan sniping

I see you are a glass half full kinda person. I'm thinking it will become the national sport. We'll likely see ESPN's nightly top ten sports highlights evolve to top ten viral videos of brawls in Costco, Sam's Club, Walmart, Target, etc. I say that in jest, but I suspect we are about to see and hear some things we never imagined.

If the Spanish Flu is any guide, we are likely to become much more socially isolated. That whole community coming together during stressful times... fell apart during the Spanish Flu. 

 
 
 
Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom
3  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom    3 weeks ago

I scraped the bottom of the barrel with them, which is how I wound up here!!

I think you have been a delight to have around.  Just slumming, were you?

 
 
 
Baron Creek
3.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom @3    3 weeks ago

Thanks! I'm not slumming, just trying to bring down the average IQ of the site. jrSmiley_82_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Kavika
3.1.1  Kavika   replied to  Baron Creek @3.1    3 weeks ago
I'm not slumming, just trying to bring down the average IQ of the site.

A quote from the leader of our country, ''I'm a really smart guy''. The same can be said of most NT members. Actually almost all of the NT members. 

I will stop now before my tongue really becomes forked.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
3.1.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Kavika @3.1.1    3 weeks ago

I hope to someday, be smart enough to understand what you meant!

 
 
 
Kavika
5  Kavika     3 weeks ago
I hope to someday, be smart enough to understand what you meant!

What part of the comment are you having trouble with? I'll do my best to un confuse you, or on the other hand, increase your confusion.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Kavika @5    3 weeks ago

That's okay. If ignorance is bliss, then I hope to achieve that target. 

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
6  Dean Moriarty    3 weeks ago

The Chinese market close down just 1.23 percent last night and trading there has been relatively stable. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
6.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Dean Moriarty @6    3 weeks ago

Yep, saw that. It bounced off the lows after the PBOC slashed the RRR. I was surprised it didn't get back to positive. But it was Friday and weekends are very long.

Appears the EU (Germany) is roaring to the rescue and the FED actions from yesterday, finally seem to be affecting the futures in a positive way. 

The 13th might be a decent day in the markets. Is there anywhere to go and celebrate?

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
7  Perrie Halpern R.A.    3 weeks ago

Sports were bound to fall victim to this. Any large gathering would be. 

No, not Trump's fault but he was very dismissive of what was going on when the WHO and the NIH were ringing bells.

The idea of stoppage of payroll tax collections would be very extremely beneficial in the short term, the longer term damage would be severe. It is not called the 3rd rail of politics without reason.

Totally agree.

On a more personal level, my daughter's wedding was planned for June 7th. Now we don't feel like we can go forward with 3 very senior grandparents (91, 86, 78), two of which have pre-existing conditions. Now we have to rebook and she doesn't know what to do and really wants to push it off to next year. But my hubby is worried that his dad won't be here next year. 

So on a very personal level, this really sucks. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
7.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @7    2 weeks ago

The payroll tax stoppage idea is becoming less and less appealing to... about anybody. The real idea was to give companies more cash to tide them over and the selling point was more in each paycheck. We are now entering the who has a paycheck phase, imo.

On the wedding plans... you sure used "we" alot. Were "we" going on the honeymoon too? You might ask the grandparents on their thoughts. Hopefully, they aren't into guilting anyone.