Baron Creek

Confusion Says...

  
By:  Baron Creek  •  Nonsense and Ramblings  •  3 weeks ago  •  34 comments

Confusion Says...
Every improvement in communication, makes the bore more terrible. - Frank Moore Colby

Predictions

Seeing predictions that the recession might be over soon or by the end of the year. Considering a recession is over when the bottom is found, it is possible, given the speed and depth of the decline. However, a recession being over and an economy that has recovered are two distinct situations.

The great recession bottomed or ended in the 2 nd quarter of 2009. It did not get back to 3 rd quarter 2007 levels until 2 nd quarter of 2011. The service sector took until 3 rd quarter of 2012 to regain its footing, after contracting approximately 5%. At this point in time, the service sector has contracted about 17%. About half of that is leisure and hospitality, which clearly would take an exceptionally long time to recover. For the record, this sector sank 5% during the great recession and recovered a year before the rest of the economy. It has dropped 50% this time around and represents about 8M jobs lost.  These jobs might be at the lower end of the pay scale, but they still represent individuals which will purchase other goods. There will be a slow recovery across the board, imo.

The great depression bottomed in early 1933 but required until 1936 to regain most of the 1929 footing. At which time there was another recession, shortly thereafter.

In both cases there was fear of many things, but fear of health was not as pervasive as is now, as it is the very reason for the economic collapse.

Predictions at this point in time…

Electoral College – Biden: 243; Trump: 161; Tossup: 134. It is a very long time until November. It has been barely a month since Sanders dropped out of the race, although it seems an eternity.  Not complaining, as I have long since stopped wanting time to fly by.

Times have changed (or maybe the truth of us... is finally revealed)

I can remember when we honored those that were willing to sacrifice their lives, to preserve our liberties. Now we have those willing to sacrifice the lives of others, to preserve their own liberties. Have times really changed or is the truth finally on full display.

Try wearing a mask in buildings or at least around me. I’ve got rights too!

Speaking of which, I had my virus test today and wore my own mask. Apparently, they would have given me a mask if I didn’t have one. I said apparently... as I did see people being issued masks and after I exited, I noticed a few strewn on the ground. I guess they lacked the energy to find a trash can. They could have at least gotten out of sight of the front door, imo. 

Energy

Last week the crude prices jumped as the crude build slowed… or so the headline said.

The refineries were filling up the pipelines and storage with various products, as the top number of Crude, petroleum products and Strategic Petroleum Reserve climbed by 30M barrels.

The week the crude prices are easing as concerns about a quick recovery wane as refiners reduce operating rates… or so the headline said.

The industry which ran out of most land-based storage and started holding crude offshore in ships, had moved to storing the finished product offshore, as well. That’s fast filling up all ships… coming and going.

CPI

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm#cpipress1.f.1

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.8 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly decline since December 2008, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.”

The BLS acknowledged difficulty in data collection during the April period.

A massive shift in spending habits has skewed the data, imo. Overall, prices could be down, but within the sectors some sizable shifts away from previous spending. An example being gasoline is down 16.5% from previous month, but I doubt the average consumer is still shelling out 2.957% of expenses on gasoline in April, when gasoline consumption fell by nearly 33%.

Before seasonal adjustments, the y/y CPI-U was just 0.3% and monthly was -0.7%. The FED’s Median CPI was 2.7% Y/Y and 0.1% from last month. I'm picking the FED's Median to be the most accurate this time around... for no other reason than it is nearest mine.

My own personal numbers were 1.92% Y/Y and -0.27% on the month.  Take your pick.

Type casting

We are down to watching re-runs of shows, we had never watched. Unfortunately, the actors playing the villains are still the same, so a lot of the suspense is gone once they appear!

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Baron Creek
1  author  Baron Creek    3 weeks ago

Getting bored?

 
 
 
bbl-1
1.1  bbl-1  replied to  Baron Creek @1    3 weeks ago

Yes.  I am bored.  COVID overload.

What is happening in the Middle East? 

How is Putin doing?   

Are the American taxpayers still paying 'heavy freight costs' for separating children from their parents down at the border? 

What is the real scoop on the Supreme Court concerning Trump family and Trump businesses and whether anyone will ever have a right to see the underpinnings of it all? 

When the Stock Markets go up or down are the fluctuations based on anything more than what this person or that person opined at any given moment?  Are there any 'real estimates' as to the ultimate cost of the COVID 19 on the nation and what the nation could do to pay for it all? 

These are just five questions.  I have dozens more.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
1.1.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  bbl-1 @1.1    2 weeks ago

All good questions.

Do want the real truth, the spin, a truth that you like? You have to decide which one you want, then the answers might be much easier, imo.

 
 
 
bbl-1
1.1.2  bbl-1  replied to  Baron Creek @1.1.1    2 weeks ago

There is only one truth.  Unfortunately, 'alternative facts' are now a part of the discussion also.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
2  JohnRussell    3 weeks ago
We are down to watching re-runs of shows, we had never watched. Unfortunately, the actors playing the villains are still the same, so a lot of the suspense is gone once they appear!

There is more unique content on television now than ever in tv history. I bet you there are at least 50 series on tv right now on some far flung channel, that you have never heard of, let alone watched. 

I make that prediction because that is pretty much the case for me too. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  JohnRussell @2    2 weeks ago
There is more unique content

I might have to disagree about the "unique" part. They all seem to be just variations of similar plots, just with different actors, locations and dialogue and the very rare small plot twist. 

 
 
 
Freefaller
3  Freefaller    3 weeks ago
We are down to watching re-runs of shows,

Lol order some books, they're way better than tv plus way more variety and selection

 
 
 
Split Personality
3.1  Split Personality  replied to  Freefaller @3    3 weeks ago
Lol order some books

I haven't unpacked 2 dozen boxes of books since I moved here. 

But if I start reading them again, think of the enlightenment I might miss here, if I'm not paying attention.

jrSmiley_91_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
3.1.1  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Split Personality @3.1    3 weeks ago

jrSmiley_10_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Freefaller
3.1.2  Freefaller  replied to  Split Personality @3.1    2 weeks ago
think of the enlightenment

Lol enlightenment wouldn't be the word I'd chose, perhaps entertainment would be more suitable.  Meh to each their own

 
 
 
Krishna
3.1.3  Krishna  replied to  Split Personality @3.1    2 weeks ago
But if I start reading them again, think of the enlightenment I might miss here, if I'm not paying attention.

I'd call most of the crap I see here "endarkenment"  jrSmiley_5_smiley_image.png

(With a dew exceptions of course).

 
 
 
Baron Creek
3.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Freefaller @3    2 weeks ago
Lol order some books

I read all my fiction on the internet.

 
 
 
Split Personality
3.2.1  Split Personality  replied to  Baron Creek @3.2    2 weeks ago

butt, butt the x rays falling out of the monitor will grow hair, somewhere. jrSmiley_91_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Baron Creek
3.2.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Split Personality @3.2.1    2 weeks ago

That explains the nose and ear hair!!jrSmiley_9_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
CB
4  CB     3 weeks ago
Speaking of which, I had my virus test today and wore my own mask. Apparently, they would have given me a mask if I didn’t have one. I said apparently... as I did see people being issued masks and after I exited, I noticed a few strewn on the ground. I guess they lacked the energy to find a trash can. They could have at least gotten out of sight of the front door, imo. 

Jam on the brakes. . . there is the matter of this big gem that's outstanding. Just sayin'.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
4.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  CB @4    2 weeks ago

Not quite catching the drift.

 
 
 
CB
4.1.1  CB   replied to  Baron Creek @4.1    2 weeks ago

It's too personal. We don't need to know. All the same, it was left openended. So I 'swung' from it. Keep you confidential business safe and sound. Best wishes, either way!

 
 
 
Baron Creek
4.1.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  CB @4.1.1    2 weeks ago

No big deal, I have to have a bit of out patient surgery. It was put off due to the virus. To gain admittance to the operating room, I had to have a virus check. As I said in an earlier piece... you can't get into a hospital these days, unless you're healthy. 

 
 
 
Split Personality
4.1.3  Split Personality  replied to  Baron Creek @4.1.2    2 weeks ago

My wife's law firm is contemplating letting people work in the office again. ( How bold of a concept is that? )

However, everyday they have to be tested for temp and virus and sign an affidavit ( my word ) swearing that they have not coughed or sneezed, tested positive, traveled or been directed to quarantine......

It's exhausting.  I wanted to publish it without their name but was told it was proprietary....

Anyone attempting to come to work will have to sign this everyday and wear a mask in spite of the average 30 feet between offices and cubicles.

Everyone is encouraged to make the transition slowly, maybe coming in 2 days a week at first, then three etc.,

while continuing to work from home.

jrSmiley_72_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Baron Creek
4.1.4  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Split Personality @4.1.3    2 weeks ago

I did an informal survey, as I had many appointments this week. Of course I had to have the virus test, but also got to have blood tests done, 3 different doctors, nurses, etc. Only the lady drawing blood had been given a virus test. Even the virus testing lady that shoved the light pole in my nose and out the back of my head... had not been tested. Maybe an ever so slight exaggeration. jrSmiley_20_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
CB
5  CB     3 weeks ago
Electoral College – Biden: 243; Trump: 161; Tossup: 134. It is a very long time until November. It has been barely a month since Sanders dropped out of the race, although it seems an eternity.  Not complaining, as I have long since stopped wanting time to fly by.

Trump is a member of "the dirtiest players in the game club"- It is not a wonder if Biden is going to get stabbed in his political heart, kicked in his political groin," or a finger jammed into his political eye-socket, the points needing demonstration (and a vote of confidence) is how does Biden build a fortress of immunity against the ensuing onslaught of Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, Corey Lewandowski, Rudy Giuliani, and Steve Bannon, "the Band," invasion force!

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  CB @5    2 weeks ago

They are all dirty, imo. I'm not a connoisseur of odors, so I try not to differentiate between the characters. 

 
 
 
CB
5.1.1  CB   replied to  Baron Creek @5.1    2 weeks ago

Baron, really? Biden is not a member of the dirtiest players in the game club, in my opinion. There remains values I, you, can depend and recognize there. Trump and his "gang" are going to lie, cheap, and steal this election (even more so than in 2016), because as a matter of principle that is what such character reckless men (and women) do. I don't to age another four years under a deceitful, vicious, and stupendously rabid leader who wants us to let him do to me, you, us, whatsoever he wills.

Biden is no Trump and Biden supporters will not metastasize this country's political cancer!  Somebody has to say it: Why not me?!

If this election fall and beyond sees me losing my life (dying) under a cowardly president like Donald Trump; it will not be a noble death, in my opinion!

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5.1.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  CB @5.1.1    2 weeks ago

I have found that politicians are telling the truth, when pointing out the evils of their opponent. I've not seen any massive changes in policies by office holders that would lead me to believe they are any different from the person they ousted. 

Probably why I keep politics at arm's length and look for the humor of it all. 

 
 
 
It Is ME
6  It Is ME    2 weeks ago

"Times have changed"

For now anyway.

Once folks REALLY get out and about, it will be like nothing ever happened, like has always been.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
6.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  It Is ME @6    2 weeks ago
Once folks REALLY get out and about, it will be like nothing ever happened, like has always been.

I agree, it is probably the timeline of when the folks get out and about... that we likely differ. Hang on to that optimism. 

 
 
 
It Is ME
6.1.1  It Is ME  replied to  Baron Creek @6.1    2 weeks ago
it is probably the timeline of when the folks get out and about... that we likely differ.

I really don't think we can ALL hang on until a Real Vaccine is available, or it's eradicated altogether.

How many allowable sick folks walking around is acceptable, before one can all get back to "Regular Stuff" anyway ?

 
 
 
Baron Creek
6.1.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  It Is ME @6.1.1    2 weeks ago
How many allowable sick folks walking around is acceptable, before one can all get back to "Regular Stuff" anyway ?

Which came first... the 14 day downward trend in cases or the sudden drop in tax revenues. As with the seasonal flu, the age range (60 and over) of deaths encompassed 85%~90%, albeit at much larger numbers. 

I would think any sane person my age, would understand what is taking place. I've said this before... there are essential jobs and thereby as a result... non essential jobs. Then there are the retired folks, etc. Providing statistics of race and gender was quickly accompanied by age. When it became available, the curves seem to have flattened, imo.

 
 
 
bbl-1
6.2  bbl-1  replied to  It Is ME @6    2 weeks ago

With the exception of those who may become ill, unnecessarily.

 
 
 
It Is ME
6.2.1  It Is ME  replied to  bbl-1 @6.2    2 weeks ago
With the exception of those who may become ill, unnecessarily.

Like takes place every "season". 

 
 
 
bbl-1
6.2.2  bbl-1  replied to  It Is ME @6.2.1    2 weeks ago

"Like."  ? ?  Explain.

 
 
 
CB
6.2.3  CB   replied to  bbl-1 @6.2.2    2 weeks ago

It Is Me would have you believe this nation is okay with a new killer disease for which we will 'give a lung' to free and clear. I wonder how the it's like flu (season of 40-60K dead stacks up as equal to a coronavirus season of over 100K dead within 6 month or less! Epic fail. Republican/conservative/Fox News talking BS.

 
 
 
It Is ME
6.2.4  It Is ME  replied to  bbl-1 @6.2.2    2 weeks ago

Influenza....even with a so-called …… "Vaccine" !

That wasn't hard now…. was it ?

 
 
 
It Is ME
6.2.5  It Is ME  replied to  CB @6.2.3    2 weeks ago
It Is Me would have you believe this nation is okay with a new killer disease for which we will 'give a lung' to free and clear.

The "Assumers". Gotta love 'em anyway. They try ! jrSmiley_24_smiley_image.gif