Baron Creek

No News is Good News!?!

  
By:  Baron Creek  •  Nonsense and Ramblings  •  3 months ago  •  26 comments

No News is Good News!?!
The gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. - Robert Kennedy

The 2nd Quarter GDP was released this morning and depending on political leanings, it was either magnificient or a bust. This from something that is revised on an annual basis and we just had that annual revision released as well. Oh well!

In any case, the real GDP has finally nudged ahead of Q4 2019 numbers. The sustainability going forward is a bit worrisome, as growth in personal consumption, especially goods... has been very robust. Durable goods are up 28%+ since 4Q 2019 and nondurables up nearly 12%. Service sector is still down 3.33%. Residential is up 16.32%. Non defense government spending up 10.58%.

Quarter to quarter indicates the goods sector is still strong, services gaining ground and residential down slightly. Non defense government spending is slipping.

After all that... I came up with nothing going forward, except we still have a way to go and we may or may not get there.

Masks v No Masks

Finally a policy from the CDC I can agree with. First off... I am fully vaccinated and support wearing a mask. The vaccination was injected into the tissue of my body and circulated throughout over a course of 2 weeks. The virus enters through the air passages into the lungs and then eventually working its way into the tissue. The vaccine does not float about in the air ways. Thus I could inhale the virus, have it lodged in my mucus and when exhaling... spread it about. I understood that for some time. Why it took the CDC so long is clearly due to politics. I am sorry to all those with defined political leanings. (Yes it is easy to be fully vaccinated and then test positive).

Of course the current policy revision has some drawbacks as we were told over and over that fully vaccinated did not need to wear masks. That was supposed to be the big impetus for the not vaccinated... to get vaccinated. Geeezzz.

There clearly had been extensive meetings to determine the best way to "F" things up. Congratulations on finally doing something that should have been done in the first place. 

Effectiveness of vaccine

I have been reading up on the Pfizer vaccine and the efficacy is around 85% at the 6 month level, which is where I am. The 85% is for the old Covid. The Delta variant efficacy is somewhere south of that and I have read Israel is suggesting about 40%. They are now recommending a 3rd shot for 65+.

I figure the FDA will eventually appove a 3rd shot, which may coincide with the discovery of the OMEGA variant. We are about half way there. 

Hoarding

I have been dialing back on the inventory and am beginning to wonder if I might need to halt the dial down. This is largely due to reading up on UK's PingAPP or whatever it is called. They sent out so many texts for people to quarantine, the store shelves started looking kinda empty. 

Granted, we don't have that in the U.S., but the "labor" shortage is firmly ingrained by now and at some point, someone at some grocery chain is going to say they don't have enough people and are worried about keeping the shelves stocked. Voila... shortages. 

Of course, something like that has never, nor will ever... happen in the U.S.

Article is LOCKED by author/seeder
 

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Perrie Halpern R.A.
Professor Principal
1  Perrie Halpern R.A.    3 months ago

Well, I think you have summed up everything pretty much to mark. Well done!

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
1.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @1    3 months ago

Thanks! You know what they say about a blind squirrel... or is it a stopped clock.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
Professor Expert
2  Bob Nelson    3 months ago

Your Kennedy quotation is impeccable. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
2.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Bob Nelson @2    3 months ago

I had to omit part of it, as it wouldn't fit.

The full quote...

The gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages; the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage; neither our wisdom nor our learning; neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country; it measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.

Leaving out the "the intelligence of our public debate of the integrity of our public officials" was pretty much a no brainer... on so many levels. jrSmiley_82_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
Professor Expert
2.1.1  Bob Nelson  replied to  Baron Creek @2.1    3 months ago

That's...  ...   hilarious...  or infinitely sad... 

 
 
 
Sparty On
PhD Principal
3  Sparty On    3 months ago

Clarification, we do have a labor shortage but it is not due to a shortage of workers but rather too much unemployment benefit being given by States and the Fed.   Plenty of workers are available.   They just don't have a reason to work any more with all the free money being handed out

I have a different read on the economy though.   We are on the bubble just ahead of where high inflation and high consumer goods costs WILL pop the bubble of any positive news.   The only way to fix that now is for the Fed to stop printing massive amounts of money and get people back to work.   Then perhaps costs will come down and inflation can be brought under control.  

We've seen this before and it won't end well if that isn't done.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
Professor Expert
3.1  Bob Nelson  replied to  Sparty On @3    3 months ago

I think workers should be "housed" in barracks near their job. They could be fed nutritionally balanced meals in common lunchrooms. Common showers, of. course.

To prevent them from becoming bored because of too much free time, working hours should be raised to twelve per day, seven days per week.

 
 
 
Sparty On
PhD Principal
3.1.1  Sparty On  replied to  Bob Nelson @3.1    3 months ago
I think workers should be "housed" in barracks near their job. They could be fed nutritionally balanced meals in common lunchrooms. Common showers, of. course. To prevent them from becoming bored because of too much free time, working hours should be raised to twelve per day, seven days per week.

Sounds good Bob, you can come to work for me with the rules you are suggesting.   We'll even put up a tent city to house you, army cots, wool blanket, military outdoor shitters, give you pink boxers and jump suits to wear while working and all the dry bologna sandwiches on gummy white bread that you can eat.

Perfect, thanks for solving the labor crisis Bob.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
Professor Expert
3.1.2  Bob Nelson  replied to  Sparty On @3.1.1    3 months ago

I knew you'd like it. 

 
 
 
Sparty On
PhD Principal
3.1.3  Sparty On  replied to  Bob Nelson @3.1.2    3 months ago

What size are you and when can you start?

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
3.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Sparty On @3    3 months ago

I scour the income tax laws to ensure I get every credit/deduction available to me. I don't fault the unemployed for watching out for their own financial benefit. 

The federal portion of unemployment ends soon enough and we will then see how that money is no longer flowing into the economy. I expect inflation to moderate, but do not see an overall deflationary spiral in costs. Some areas maybe, but not overall. 

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
4  Ender    3 months ago

I wonder if the spending on goods more or less was generated from stimulus payments.

 
 
 
Sparty On
PhD Principal
4.1  Sparty On  replied to  Ender @4    3 months ago

Certainly a good part of it was.   One of my nephews worked at Best Buy for a couple years.   Want to know what one of the best days of the year always was for them?  

The day local Tribal members got the annual Casino money checks.

It's how it works

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
4.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Ender @4    3 months ago
I wonder if the spending on goods more or less was generated from stimulus payments.

Quite possibly, as goods only fell -2.5% in 2Q2020 compared to 4Q2019. The jump from 2Q2020 to 3Q2020 was 10.57%, holding steady through 4Q and then jumping in 1Q2021 by 6.24%. The 2Q2021 edged up 2.78%. Overlay the stimulus payments to those dates and you would have your answer, imo.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
5  JohnRussell    3 months ago

If two thirds of adults are vaccinated (and we are still short of that figure) that would still leave 65 million Americans (not counting children) susceptible to the virus, and that doesnt even count those who may still contract the virus even though they have been vaccinated. 65 million is a larger population than that of 85% of the world's nations.

The pandemic is not over and if somehow the new direction leads to more deaths than it is right now there could still be disaster looming. 

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Senior Principal
5.1  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  JohnRussell @5    3 months ago

We have had, at my last check, 38.2 million cases in the US. Couple that with 612,000 deaths. That leaves 37.6 million people who have theoretically lived through it and should have antibodies enough to survive. Granted, they should still probably get the vaccine and the numbers, due to the fact I was tested positive twice, may be off. a bit. 

I was tested last November and was positive but asymptomatic. April was a much different story. I spent 7 days in ICU, additional 9 days in "regular population", and 11 days of inpatient at home care. I have since gotten both of my Moderna shots with some side effects as a sort of booster I guess. My doctor said it couldn't hurt.

I wonder how many of those 38.2 million went on and got the vaccine and how much of an influence that has on the overall picture.

 
 
 
Sparty On
PhD Principal
5.1.1  Sparty On  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @5.1    3 months ago

People need to start accepting that this is our new Flu, it's not going away just like the Flu hasn't gone away for over 100years.

People need to stop freaking out about it and start treating it the same as the Flu.   Not everyone gets Flu shots, in fact most don't get flu shots.    Heard little bitching about that from the talking heads

It is what it is

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
5.1.2  Ender  replied to  Sparty On @5.1.1    3 months ago

The flu doesn't kill 650,000 people.

 
 
 
Sparty On
PhD Principal
5.1.3  Sparty On  replied to  Ender @5.1.2    3 months ago

Only because of herd immunity developed over decades.  

Look, we've got a majority of the population immunized against COVID-19 in the US.    It either works or it doesn't.   Turning into a tyrannical country that forces immunizations on it's people may work in places like China but it won't here.   It's past time to let people make their own choices and let the cards fall where they may.

Get busy living or get busy dying .....

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
5.1.4  Ender  replied to  Sparty On @5.1.3    3 months ago

I wouldn't say a majority. My state hasn't hit a 40 percent mark.

We already force immunizations. It is nothing new. Why people are making hay out of this one, I don't get. Grandstanding.

 
 
 
Sparty On
PhD Principal
5.1.5  Sparty On  replied to  Ender @5.1.4    3 months ago
We already force immunizations.

No we don't, not nationally anyways.   There is almost always a choice unless you sign it away by say joining the military.

Liberty is never grandstanding in the USA.   At least not to me it's not.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
5.1.6  Ender  replied to  Sparty On @5.1.5    3 months ago

And there is no way it could be done at a national level.

It can be done however by requiring military to be vaccinated. Hospitals can require staff...etc.

One persons liberty ends where another's begins.

 
 
 
Sparty On
PhD Principal
5.1.7  Sparty On  replied to  Ender @5.1.6    3 months ago

Nah, the only way one gives up that liberty right now in the US is if they sign it away, like joining the military.

A hospital can require vaccinations but a person doesn't have to work there.   They can't force them to get it if they don't work there

And the old double edged sword:

Where one persons liberty begins, is not necessarily where another persons liberty ends.

Incidentally i just looked it up  and about 164 million have been immunized in the USA.   That's about 50% of the population but a much higher percentage of people who they recommend get immunized since they don't yet for younger people.   Prolly closer to 60-70% in that regard

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
5.1.8  Ender  replied to  Sparty On @5.1.7    3 months ago

Depends on where you are. I think the most vaccinated state is barely that amount.

They can't force them to get it if they don't work there

They can tell them to wear a mask or get out...

 
 
 
Sparty On
PhD Principal
5.1.9  Sparty On  replied to  Ender @5.1.8    3 months ago
Depends on where you are. I think the most vaccinated state is barely that amount.

Like i said, it's easy to game the numbers.   I'd like to see the real percentages.   The percentage of people, who they recommend to get a vaccination, that have been vaccinated.   Those numbers are out there and are significantly higher than the numbers we see every day in all States but we'll never see them.   Because they don't push an agenda but rather only point out facts.

They can tell them to wear a mask or get out...

And they can choose to work someplace else.   Again, with freedom of choice on boths sides, liberty wins and tyranny loses.  

One of the worst losses of liberty in our lifetimes?   The Patriot Act.   I was against it then and i'm still against it now.   That one was a win for Bin Laden.   No doubt about it.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
5.1.10  Ender  replied to  Sparty On @5.1.9    3 months ago
One of the worst losses of liberty in our lifetimes?   The Patriot Act.  

Have to agree with that.