It's Over.......Now What?
A big shift in the House, a strong Republican showing in the Senate, seven Democratic gains in the Gubernatorial races. Significant gains by the Democrats in many state legislatures. Left turn votes on issues that were on the ballot. A few marquis races that are too close to call are still out there. What does it all mean?
1. The nation prefers a divided government. This is not new. Ever since the end of WWII, voters have almost always preferred government where one party provided a check and balance over the other party. It does appear that the Republicans and the Democrats are going to move to the center in order to get any substantial legislation done.
2. There are fewer and fewer moderates in both Houses. A reality is that both the left and right will move toward the center.
3. The 2020 election cycle is now much more interesting. The Republicans face a Senate electoral map much like the Democrats did this year. Twenty two Republicans vs. eleven Democrats are up for election in a Presidential year. It is now much more likely that a moderate Republican such as Kasich will primary Trump.
4. The redistricting of America is going to be much more difficult for Republicans with the Democrats making major gains in the states, both on a gubernatorial and legislative level.
5. Intelligent politicians are going to be more bi-partisan in passing legislation.
6. As the demographics of the country change, more and more people are voting Democratic. This election showed almost 10,000,000 more Democratic votes over Republicans.
7. The courts will continue to become more conservative as the nation becomes more liberal. Holding the Senate was the key victory for Republicans and the most satisfying area for President Trump. Courts will be stacked with as many conservatives as possible.
8. Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania went strongly Democratic. Only Mike DeWine in Ohio won his electoral bid. Every other major political office in the rust belt went Democratic. If the 2020 elections hold on to this trend, President Trump might be a one term President.
9. Public sentiment on the many issues of the day is becoming more left. Questions on Medicare expansion, legalization of recreational marijuana, transgender and gay rights, all won in states as diverse as South Dakota and Massachusetts.
10. It is likely that the "wall" is dead. Since the Democrats won the House, they also control the spending of this nation. There is going to be a more reasonable tone on these issues.
11. Some of the reddest states in the Union are moving toward purple status. The overall results of this election signify that. Texas, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and other former Republican bastions are moving toward, or have already moved toward purple status. This may be the largest take away from this election.
12. There will be a number of investigations from the House that were stymied during the first two years of the Trump Presidency. House Oversight, Ways & Means, Judiciary, etc. will be bringing some old and some new scandals of this administration to the forefront. There might even be a shift of the Mueller investigation under the Judiciary committee.
13. The election demonstrated a marked shift in gender. More women than any time in history have been elected to office.
This is, of course, not a comprehensive list of take-aways from the election. There are numerous other possibilities that abound. This election, however, does signal a new day in American political history. The playing field is changing. We'll see how much it does change in the next two years. Bottom line, it's on to 2020 and the continued d/evolution of the United States.
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One of the big questions that is still out there is whether the President is going to work with, or fight with Congress on the many issues of the day. I hope that this resolves quickly. The nation must go forward. Obstructionism, either by the Democrats or the Republicans, or President Trump himself won't be tolerated by the American public.
I have a feeling he will be working with Congress, which may shock the American public. Of course, there will be a few fights...but that's to be expected since he's fought with Republicans in Congress since taking office.
Thanks, Doc, for the nutshell analysis. As I admit I'm not an expert in American Government (and am constantly being reminded of that by members on this site) I appreciate the concise and simple explanation of what may well have resulted from the election.
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Part of me would like to see that. Just as a human being, I like Kasich a lot more than I like Trump. However, I don't really expect it to happen, and historically - though it doesn't happen a lot - the few times that such challenges were strong, that party ended up losing the White House in November. For example, Ted Kennedy vs. Jimmy Carter in 1980, Reagan vs. Ford in 1976, McCarthy/Bobby Kennedy vs. Johnson in 1968.
Sorry but Kasich is more democrat than Republican. If I was going to votes for him I mind as well go vote for a real democrat .
Very true. At the beginning of the 2016 primary season I thought that Kasich would have been a better candidate than Trump. Since then he has shown that he has no integrity and is nothing but another professional politician who cannot be trusted.
What I see coming is gridlock. I consider that to be a good thing. The less the Federal Government does, the more they leave us alone. Let them do their primary jobs, defending the borders and delivering the mail.
If you mean what a Democrat might have looked like 15 or 20 years, that's not totally wrong. He's definitely more moderate. But, I think the same is true of Trump. Almost everyone else who was running in 2016 was more conservative than Trump historically.
And I would have supported any of the others before and after he won the nomination. He was my lastchouce to go up against the hag.
Yeah, Kasich is an establishment republican someone from the Gingrich crowd that took over the republican party after Bush became president.
And we all remember the screwed up deals that Gringrich made with Clinton.... (nothing but a huge dog and pony show)
He is NOT a Goldwater/Reagan Republican, and would NEVER get my vote....
Oh MY Fucking GOD, you have got to be kidding me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You mean a real Republican, not one of these Teapublicans or, Trumplicans that have emerged since Obama became president
Yeah, you mean the bipartisan leadership that existed back then doesn't appeal to you because you want to see the country in the trash heap.
Well, I'll admit he's not a Goldwater Republican but, he is definitely a Reagan Republican, he's willing to work with people on the other side of the isle. Too bad that kind of Republican doesn't exist any more.
Something you might not be aware of, I was there.
I know how Reagan viewed Gringrich and there was a reason he didn't become the Speaker of the House until after Reagan was out of office..... He was not a member of the "Reagan Revolution"
Reagan greatly disliked the man.
Gingrich was Neo-Conservative, I doubt very seriously if the Democrats would have let a Neo-Conservative be Speaker of the House while they were in control of it.
Your absolutely correct. and when did Gingrich finally become Speaker of the House? 1995... after the Red Wave of '94, why did it take so long for him to get it after the republicans were swept into power in the house? Three months? Cause the Reganites still had control of the party. He became Minority whip in '89 after striking a deal with the reaganite controlled RNC. that is when he started a movement to bring the hard core religionists into the party actively. Gradually they started replacing Reagan people in the party offices. Bush eventually regretted supporting Gringrich for the Whip position cause Gringrich did not keep his bargain to get the office. At that point he formalized the "Contract with America" with huge support from the hard core religionists. based upon that he built his base within the party while Clinton was winning the presidency. it was at this time he unleashed his principles of talking about democrats as horrible people while talking about Republicans as the saviors of democracy. (many political scientists credit Gingrich of ushering in the era of hate we have today, and I agree with that idea) then came the red wave of '94, built on the "Contract with America" and the hate of all things democrat. It still took him three months to gain the votes for speaker. With Bob Michael retiring, Gingrich was the oldest serving republican in the house and arm twisted the rest into giving him the seat as speaker.
At that point the republican party was changed into a twisted mess of what it once was.
Not that it mattered to me, I was out of government by then and out of the party....
But what the establishment republicans are today is a direct result of Newt the toot. and no, it is not the party of Reagan not even close..... We tried to keep him out, we even tried to assist the democrats when they gerrymandered his district out of existence. Nothing worked....
Gingrich and Clinton were made for each other, two peas in a pod one green the other pale green...
Yeah I was there...
Here in Ohio, Kasich's largest accomplishments are cutting funding to the cities and attacking Planned Parenthood.
I had to get a high & tight and grow a beard to stop being mistaken for the Newt,
but I was stuck with the nickname for almost 2 decades...
I'd take that a step further and say that Trump is not a true Conservative. Nor is he a what used to be a real Republican. (And FWIW he really doesn't give a hoot about religion either).
But he has found a way to manipulate several groups to make them believe he will fight for their causes (which he has mainly done). He's actually an exceedingly clever politician.
But I don't think he believes in anything-- except himself.
(As more and more people catch on, his power will start to diminish...)
Man, i feel for ya, that isn't a name I would like to carry around for a second.
Gingrich's slime eventually caught up to him, he was forced to resign the Speakers seat and eventually his seat in congress.....
I always wondered why he and Clinton got along so well.....
Slime knows slime....
In another life he and Clinton would have been bosom buddies...
Of course I am, I was there too.
Ummm, no. The Red Wave of '94 didn't happen until Clinton was in office and, then the Republicans had to vote for Speaker of the House, which normally takes place after they are sworn in in January of the following year, in this case 1995 Gingrich was the "golden boy" of the Republican Party at the time, he was a sure win for Speaker.
This we can agree on.
I do believe, (since I "WAS" there) that Clinton took office in '93, (after the '92 election) wasn't he the one that came out of nowhere and beat the president with the greatest approval rating since Washington? Yeah that's right he was the one cause none of the democrat heavy hitters wanted to go up against such an approval rating. And then the republicans were swept in in '94 (the red wave) and Gingrich took the speakers seat in March.... three months after the house was seated.... (usually who the speaker is going to be is decided before the house is ever sworn in) Three months to nail it down...... I was fired from my campaign post in October and released from my white house duties the same week. I stuck around DC for a time but it wasn't easy to stay there without a good paying job and stayed in touch with friends that were still involved in the party.
Ancient history now..... But that is when the party of Lincoln died, late March 1995.....
Actually, I think it went into its death throws at that time, it was dead, burned and, buried by the time the Tea Party came to power in the GOP when Obama was elected. What we have now, calling itself the Republican Party is, IMO, the White Nationalists giving a poor imitation of the GOP.
Well this is where we are going to part ways. You believe that the party of Lincoln is the party that will give the democrats everything they want. That is what we on this side call the establishment republicans, the party of Gringrich and his slimy cohorts.
The tea party, who has been latched on to by everyone south of the north pole trying to keep itself for it's own purpose, trying to reset the party of Lincoln and get it's principles followed. The real hard part? is fighting the liberal intent to subvert along with the establishment of our own party who wants to deal on the liberal basis....
WE have had some success if the railing of the liberals in both parties are any indication.
No one wants to go back to the real party of Lincoln... No liberal that is....
But my personal belief? This will no longer be a single nation in the future if we don't start to heed the better angels of our nature... A nation divided upon itself cannot stand...
First, the party of Lincoln was in no way Conservative, the Conservatives coopted the party in early 1900's and, started the slow drain of Progressives from the party, history tells us that much. Lincoln was not a conservative and, neither was Teddy Roosevelt but, they were major players in the Republican Party in their lives. Eisenhower was the last true progressive in the Republican Party, all you have to do is look at what these men advocated during their presidency's to know that much.
Putting the words subvert and, Liberal in the same sentence creates an Oxymoron.
Who is WE?
Under Liberal ideas we saw the industrial revolution, the building of our interstate system, the space race, Civil Rights enacted, slavery abolished and, the creation of this nation and, most of that was done by the real party of Lincoln, not this thing that has coopted it in the past 30 years.
If we continue on our current path, I have to agree with you but, "compromise" as it is meant by the current Republican Party isn't compromise, it is submission, submission to ideas that were made out of date during the Jim Crow era, the women's movement back in the early 1900's, and, by the Constitution.
I don't disagree with the idea that all such things you mention were liberal in affect. In fact on many basis completely agree. Yes the Republican party was founded on the terms of classic liberalism without a doubt...
I submit that it is the democrat party and their establishment cohorts in the republican party that demand submission.... That they have no room in their ideals for anyone with a differing viewpoint.
Thomas Jefferson gave a long and detailed example and dissertation on the differences in the two opposing political philosophies His terms were Whigs and Tories..... He also charted throughout history the various great nations and their governments and how they developed and what the opposing sides were. Pointing out the Whigs and Tories of history.
He related that the yin and yang of politics has always been with us from time immemorial and how that was represented in the politics of the new nation.
Once you learn and understand the background, it is not hard to deduce who the Tories are today...
And it sure isn't the independent wing of the republican party...
IMO, the really salient point to this election is the Rep gains in the Senate. Right behind it is the lack of a real "blue wave" in the house. A "wave" changes big numbers, like when over 60 seats changed hands like in 2012. A gain of 26 +/- is typical and like a ripple by comparison.
Other than that there wasn't really anything unusual to this election from what i can see. No matter how anyone tries to spin it otherwise. Well, except for the number of women who won. That was pretty exceptional and cool!
Why?
Before the election, The Republicans controlled both Houses of Congress. After the Election they control only one. A significant gain-- but for the Dems!
Adding a few seats in either House doesn't matter much-- who controls a House indicates who's in control-- which party controls the committees, which can do investigations, issue supoenas (even for tax returns, even for compelling someone to testify, etc).
Having a few more seats in the Senate will not significantly increase the Republicans' power in the Senate. However, losing control of a House will make a big difference in their power!
Yeah, that goes unsaid. And if the House does what some of them say they want to do ..... as in investigate and not legislate ..... there is one clear loser.
Us .... the people. In 2020 it flips back the other way and the wheel goes around and around ..... the joke is on all of us. Absolutely.
The House has to do walk and talk at the same time. The actually have two primary functions......to legislate on behalf of the people and to provide oversight to the Executive branch. Its been done in the past and can be done now.
True, but they actually have to DO both.
And guys, the democrats have so much 'hope' and many 'heartbreaks' to mend placed on them. Trump being the type of man that he is will not go easy on any one of 'em. Democrats you will need to 'stay woke,' be fierce and fearless, and nimble from now through 2021! Your long dry season is over - I sure hope all those faces in the January 2019 House are either brand-spanking new or 'well-rested up'!
Aww ..... heartbreaks "placed" on them??? ..... perhaps we can issue them a "mental mending" kit. We'll include, Preparation-H, PlayDoh, Gummy Bears shaped like Donkey's and juice boxes all around.
Yep that should help a little .....
That was not for you. So you can't have any of it!
Give your care pak to 2019 Republican House members. For if you have been "OK!" with President DJ© Trump lying up to now—hold your nausea bucket closeby. Trump's need for a personal filter is gone.
You might find your own point of view spat upon in a matter of days!
Lol, nice try ..... the right isn’t spazing out like the left has been for two years.
Thats your gig not ours. Hilarious!
Spaz, pizazz, razzmatazz.
That's all I got for ya!
(Hi DocPhil! This is the member formerly known as Calbab!)
There are good points being made all around in here, so far. Who knows what comes next as the day marches on?
It is kinda refreshing to see Ms. Pelosi "out and about" publicly. Trump has already demonstrated he is not willing to stop lying for the good of anybody, so we are required to accept his "baggage" and affront going forward.
Now the democrats can get exercised in doing proper, robust investigations and governing at the same time. Trump will be all to happy to trip the democrat-ran House up as he steps enters across the threshold to his planned reelection. Nothing is off the table - daggers are always out.
Every misstep will be fodder and "megaphoned" by Trump (aka. "The Mouth.") And the presidential lie machinery is already vacuumed, steamed, packaged, and delivered. Please democrats in Congress, double-check everything you are, say, write, and do going forward. Oh, and democrats do something great too!
Which is the key. If they decide to govern, we will be better for it.
One can only hope.
They need to dump the wicked witch of the west though as speaker to have any chance of doing it.
Wouldn't that be lovely, for a change.
If they decide to move towards the center. Doubtful IMO.
And regardless of what might be some wanting to do that-- Trump will do his best to keep them divided-- in fact to widen the divide! (That's one of his tactics-- keep them divided, even in chaos-- then its easier for a strong man to step in and "fix" the problem. Subtly create a problem, making sure it looks like some else created the problem. Then he "fixes" it and becomes a hero!
Trump 2.0 begins with forcing out Attorney General Jeff Sessions on Wednesday and putting in place a new Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker who has written in the recent past of ways and means to starve The Mueller Investigation by taking away its essential funding. A solemn question:
1. Is President Donald Trump corrupt?
Is that a trick question?
No. It is meant to be today's front and center, of "....Now What?"
Do bears shit in the woods?
The 2018 midterm House shift wasn't as big as what other recent presidents experienced in their first terms.
Bill Clinton - lost 54 seats in 1994
George W. Bush - gained seats in 2002
Barack Obama - lost 63 seats in 2010
The 2018 midterm House tally isn't completed yet. So far, Trump's House lost only 23 seats. Hardly a "blue wave/tsunami".
Yep but let em have their moment in the sun ..... its been awhile.
And newbie Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the perfect woman to help them!
Now you're being a Silly Goose!
What is significant is who controls the House-- and most importantly that that control shifted from Republican to Democratic!
(If a party controls a House by 60 votes-- or 100-- or even ten-- that's irrelevant. What's important is which Party controls it!)
Sounds like you're getting desperate to turn a significant Democratic victory (turning control of House) into a non-event. (Perhaps you will realize what happened when Democrats begin controlling all the committees, and start subpoening people to testify, subpoening documents, etc. And the Republicans can no longer launch Committee investigation-- but the Dems can!
Be afraid-- be very afraid!
Correct. Take emotion out of the equation and the bottom line is who is in control.
About the only things that will be done is 'something tangible' on healthcare and the Trump will finally, once and for all, have to answer for something.
About the only things that will be done is 'something tangible' on healthcare and the Trump will finally, once and for all, have to answer for something.
Actually I think there's something else.
Now that the Dems will control the House, they will do what the Republicans did when they controlled the House.
They will control the Committees. And they will set the agenda for the committees.And they will use the committees' powers of supoena. In fact, the new Democratic House majority will do what the previous one did-- they will make the new house rules.
And...……..the new democratic house will ask questions that were never asked and should have been asked.
The Swerve. That's what comes next!
Trump, the Heel , to turn, the Face . House republicans did not get the job done! Trump can't work with 'losers.' Watch for it:
Trump laying waste to House Republicans 2019!
"Losers get pressed into Hell!"
Actually, they only won a slim majority, what will change is the Committee chairmanships will change hands and that is just about it.
The judiciary committee was 11-10 republican, it will now be 11-10 democrat.
All the committee's will have that happen.
The real issue here is will the democrats go on a tear like a dog scrapping for a bone, or will they come to their senses and try to work with the other side?
That is yet to be seen, but it is the same question I'm seeing on most of the more balances sites both conservative and liberal....
The democrats have gained control of the House, but don't think that they have really gained any real power cause they haven't. What we will see is life being made a little harder for T-rump naturally, but nothing that he shouldn't be able to handle....
It is now even more up to the democrats to show us if they wish to govern or still make foundational changes to this nation...
WE will see.
Meh. A midterm shift. They happen more often than not.
The nation prefers a government that does very little. I know this is not what progressives like to hear, but most Americans are skeptical about government action.
I'm curious how you marry the first sentence with the second. We have fewer people likely to move toward the center, so they're going to move toward the center?
What matters most is what the Dems do. Did they learn the Beto lesson? Do they realize that even a great candidate still isn't going to get elected if he's too liberal? Or are they going to cling to the angry Bernie Bot nonsense of yesteryear and see Trump re-elected? Trump will be as vulnerable as Cruz, and they can win if they seize the center. They can't win with Pelosi-esque leftism.
"Redistricting" is a great way for far left democrats to hide from the fact that nobody wants their craziness. Moderate Democrats don't have a problem getting elected.
That has always been true. But there just aren't many people around who fit that description.
As the demographics of the country change, more and more people will vote Republican. Older demographics always do, and the Millennials will be no exception.
Not a bad thing. It's good to have stability in the court system.
Trends in politics don't last two years.
I agree. In many ways that's a good thing.
There will NOT be a more reasonable tone any time in the near future. Not a chance. But the wall is officially dead, instead of "mostly dead", which is also a good thing.
Texas and Florida have always been purple. Anybody who has actually spent any time here knows that.
CNN may as well change its name to "The Presidential Scandal Network".
I can't speak for the rest of the country, but here in Texas, we've never had a problem electing high quality women. We've had a problem getting them to run.
If Barb and Laura and Claudia were any indication of Texas women in politics, I would say it's cause they don't want to get down in the hog swaller with their husbands. All three were very classy ladies, with backbones of steel. (despite what their husbands were)
Most Texas women are.
Now we need to keep building on what is obviously going to work. Do the groundwork, the outreach, prove that Democrats are willing to work, that the policies are going to work for far more people than just corporate welfare handouts by the GOP.
The trend toward younger candidates with new ideas and enthusiasm has been refreshing, while in Ohio the GOP went back to the same old dirty politics of "swift boating" a great candidate like Cordray, sadly the lies and negative ads worked.
We need to show positive ads, keep being positive, keep on top of the inclusive message and stick to policies and the truth. Eventually I believe what has started will be the way forward for everyone.
What absolutely has to happen is restoring voting rights, preserving voting rights, fair voting maps, and better accountability in elections which is the foundation of any democracy.
Get out the vote, restore the vote, preserve the vote and make the vote fair. Whoever wins, wins.
It is painfully clear that the GOP does not want a majority of voters to vote, they want to pick and choose and manipulate the vote in their favor to maintain one party rule. That is not democracy.
Starting in January 2019, democrats will have to stay on task :
Democrats continue to weave in and out, bob up and down, and stay nimble! Trump is old and tired, but there is still activity happening "in 'em limbs."
The Nation does not prefer a divided government. It is just that in order to get Congress to listen to The People the government has to be divided. Each party when they get into power and have both Houses of Congress and the Presidency tend to become tone-deaf and arrogant, at least since 1993. In this process, they stop following through on the promises made and instead focus on stuff they did not campaign on or decided not to be completely open about. In 1992, the Democrats had won all 3 on "It's the Economy, Stupid." and proceeded to raise taxes and muck about trying to take the country to the left, despite most Americans wanting a Center-leaning government that actually listens to the constituents. In 1994, Clinton and the Democrats were shocked with Republicans taking the House and Senate, and the Republicans kept both Houses until 2001, when Jeffords switched parties from Republican to Independent. Then, the Republicans were given back the Senate and kept both Houses until 2007, and again it was a loss due to the party in power not listening to the people. In each and every case, it was because the people in power did not follow through with their promises and/or focused on items that the people were focused on. The same thing happened in this election. House Republican leadership actually failed to listen to the people. What they promised was repeal of the PPACA (Obamacare) and didn't do anything to actually repeal it. They, then, proceeded to spend like Democrats did in 2008 and 2009 under both Bush and Obama via TARP. Which was not something the Republican base likes to see. These things came back to bite them as they failed to listen to the people. The reason why Republicans hold the Senate and expanded their control over it was due to how Democrats showed they do not care for people by how they attacked Brett Kavanaugh and considering that every Democrat Senate candidate in states that Trump won and voted against Kavanaugh lost, that should be plain to see that those constituents did not believe any of the last minute accusers (including Ford).
Some do. Socialists regularly employ a "divide and conquer (rule)" tactic. So make no mistake.
That is the exact tactic many are trying to apply today. It's worked before and it could work again. They hope no one pays attention to the man behind the curtain. I just hope a majority of Americans aren't stupid enough to fall for such nonsense.
It certainly prefers an inactive government.