Morning Consult Polls Show Trump Approval Plummeting In Key States

  
Via:  john-russell  •  3 months ago  •  18 comments

Morning Consult Polls Show Trump Approval Plummeting In Key States
according to the Morning Consult polls, Trump’s approval is underwater by double digits in three states he won in 2016 and that he’ll need to win again if he has any hope of a second term.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


This is not good news for Trump’s reelection hopes.

According to Morning Consult’s daily  tracking  of Trump’s approval in all 50 states, Trump’s popularity in crucial swing states has plummeted since he took office in 2017.

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For example, according to the Morning Consult polls, Trump’s approval is underwater by double digits in three states he won in 2016 and that he’ll need to win again if he has any hope of a second term. They are:

  • Wisconsin, where just 42 percent of voters approve of his job in office, as opposed to 55 percent who disapprove. That’s a 19-point drop since Trump took office.

  • In Michigan, 42 percent approve of Trump while 54 percent disapprove — a 20-point decline in popularity since Trump took office.

  • And in Iowa, Trump has seen a 21-point drop in his popularity since taking office, with 42 percent of voters approving of his job performance and another 54 percent disapproving.








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Kyle Griffin

@kylegriffin1








Trump remains underwater in key battleground states, according to Morning Consult.

New Hampshire: -19 net approval
Wisconsin: -13
Michigan: -12
Iowa: -12
Pennsylvania: -7
Arizona: -6
Ohio: -4
North Carolina: -4
Florida: zero








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Trump is also underwater in approval ratings in Pennsylvania and Arizona, two other states he very narrowly won in 2016. If Trump also lost those states in 2020, there’s no path to him winning the White House.

Some of Trump’s problems may stem from his trade war with China and Mexico — which especially hurt Midwest and Rust Belt swing states, given that the tariffs are hurting  car manufacturers  and  farmers  that are concentrated in these swing areas.

Of course, it’s very early in the election cycle. There’s still more than a year until voters head to the polls, and Democrats have yet to pick a nominee.

But Trump’s lagging approval rating in these key states is not a great sign for his reelection chances in 2020.

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JohnRussell
1  seeder  JohnRussell    3 months ago

The fatal mistake optimistic Trumpsters are making in not understanding that people know Trump now in a way they didnt know him during 2016. And of course they dont like what they see. 

 
 
 
Tacos!
1.1  Tacos!  replied to  JohnRussell @1    3 months ago
people know Trump now in a way they didnt know him during 2016

Donald Trump has been a very well known person for 40 years. The notion that people didn't know who he was in 2016 is completely unbelievable.

 
 
 
Tessylo
1.1.1  Tessylo  replied to  Tacos! @1.1    3 months ago

[deleted]

 
 
 
JohnRussell
2  seeder  JohnRussell    3 months ago

www.nytimes.com

Trump Needs a Target to Stay Interested in His Campaign. For Now, It’s Biden.

By Annie Karni and Maggie Haberman
8-10 minutes

President Trump has complained about traveling, but then lashed out at aides, demanding to know, “Why am I not doing more rallies?” CreditEric Thayer for The New York Times

Imagemerlin_155172306_3aee1d6a-5bc8-461e-b490,https://static01.nyt.com/images/2019/06/10/us/politics/10dc-campaign/merlin_155172306_3aee1d6a-5bc8-461e-b490-9f37cb1b620f-jumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp 1024w,https://static01.nyt.com/images/2019/06/10/us/politics/10dc-campaign/merlin_155172306_3aee1d6a-5bc8-461e-b490-9f37cb1b620f-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp 2048w" sizes="((min-width: 600px) and (max-width: 1004px)) 84vw, (min-width: 1005px) 60vw, 100vw" width="482" height="335" >

President Trump has complained about traveling, but then lashed out at aides, demanding to know, “Why am I not doing more rallies?” CreditCreditEric Thayer for The New York Times

WASHINGTON — Late at night, using his old personal cellphone number, President Trump has been calling former advisers who have not heard from him in years, eager to discuss his standing in the polls against the top Democrats in the field — specifically Joseph R. Biden Jr., whom he describes in those conversations as “too old” and “not as popular as people think.”

After being briefed on a devastating 17-state poll conducted by his campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, Mr. Trump told aides to deny that his internal polling showed him trailing Mr. Biden in many of the states he needs to win, even though he is also trailing in public polls from key states like Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And when top-line details of the polling leaked, including numbers showing the president lagging in a cluster of critical Rust Belt states, Mr. Trump instructed aides to say publicly that other data showed him doing well.

Mr. Biden seems to have gotten into the president’s head — at least for now. And on Tuesday, the president will engage with him, if indirectly, for the first time during the 2020 campaign when they both make appearances in Iowa.

Mr. Trump’s visit to an ethanol plant in Council Bluffs is an official White House event. But campaign aides see it, as well as a later appearance at a Republican dinner, as an opportunity to both troll Mr. Biden and invigorate a candidate who needs an identifiable opponent to keep his interest and who has been alternately engrossed in and detached from his re-election effort.

In a recent overarching state-of-the-race briefing in Florida with Brad Parscale, his campaign manager, Mr. Trump was consistently distracted and wanted to discuss other things, according to people familiar with the meeting. When it came to the campaign, his main focus was on his own approval numbers.

Unlike nearly every recent modern president who sought re-election, Mr. Trump rarely if ever speaks to aides about what he hopes to accomplish with what would be a hard-won second term; his interest is entirely in the present, and mostly on the crisis of the moment. He has shown no interest in formulating a new message for his campaign, instead continuing with the winning “Make America Great Again” slogan from his last race and adding that he also wants to “keep America great.”

Mr. Trump has griped about traveling too much, but then lashed out at aides, demanding to know, “Why am I not doing more rallies?” He insists on having final approval over the songs on his campaign playlist, as well as the campaign merchandise, but he has never asked to see a budget for 2019.

His lack of interest in the bones of his campaign is not wholly out of the ordinary for an incumbent running for re-election. “At this point in the cycle,” President Barack Obama “was pretty consumed by governing,” David Axelrod, a former top adviser to Mr. Obama, said of his re-election focus. “He was briefed on the start-up, but we didn’t have our first big campaign meeting until the fall of 2011.”

But with a limited policy agenda and little interest in governing, Mr. Trump has been running for re-election virtually since the day he won. For the most part, though, he has been letting his campaign operatives get things organized without immersing himself in the details.

Mr. Trump has been uninterested in the campaign’s mammoth online advertising efforts, which have surpassed $4.5 million. When it comes to digital advertising in general, his response is to ask aides, “Is this for television?”

Unlike his last presidential race, during which Mr. Trump was concerned about spending because it was his own money on the line, he has not pressed for details. And he has made it clear that he does not relish participating in fund-raisers, leaving much of the donor maintenance and hand-holding to Vice President Mike Pence.

Mr. Trump may be indifferent to the mechanics of running a presidential campaign, in part because he continues to view his 2016 victory as driven almost entirely by his own force of personality and messaging.

“His counterintuitive gut instinct that drove much of the 2016 race was spot on through the primary and the general elections,” said Jason Miller, who served as a communications aide on Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign. “I wouldn’t expect that to change going into 2020. He’s always going to be the one who drives the message and makes the important political decisions.”

Mr. Trump is also aware that his signature campaign promise — to build a wall along the border with Mexico — has not come to fruition. He has been looking for opportunities to demonstrate to his core voters that he is fighting to get it done, according to aides, and that he is being stopped by intractable political forces.

But many of his private, election-related conversations, aides said, tend to center on Mr. Biden.

In conversations with donors and allies, the president has continued to refer to him as feeble (Mr. Biden is 76; Mr. Trump is turning 73 this week) and noted that he was part of the Washington establishment, giving Mr. Trump the opportunity to run as the outsider even from his perch in the Oval Office.

“He views Biden as a failed vice president who’s going to be savaged by the left in the primary to the point of unelectability,” said Sam Nunberg, who worked on the 2016 campaign. “He also doesn’t believe he has energy.”

He has tried workshopping versions of those critiques as Twitter attacks, referring to Mr. Biden as “sleepy” and “swampman,” and blaming him for the 1994 crime bill that critics say increased mass incarceration. West Wing aides have been discussing another criminal justice reform event as a vehicle to underscore Mr. Biden’s support of the crime bill.

During a state visit in Tokyo, Mr. Trump appeared to side with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, by saying on Twitter that he, too, called Mr. Biden a “low IQ individual, & worse.”

In Iowa, Mr. Trump will finally be in a place where he will be expected to go after Mr. Biden, rather than be criticized for it. He will also attend a fund-raising dinner for the state Republican Party chairman, Jeffrey Kaufmann, an event his campaign aides said they had wanted to get on the books for months, as a way to incentivize other state party leaders to work hard on behalf of Mr. Trump.

“He didn’t win Iowa in our caucuses, but he still maintained Iowa as a special state for him,” Mr. Kaufmann said. “I’ve visited with him in the Oval Office, and every single time he not only shows his support for our state, but he shows he understands the issues out here.”

This event — along with a winter and spring of MAGA rallies, mostly in reliable states — will be a rehearsal for next week. Mr. Trump, hoping to turn the attention of the race back onto himself, will  officially kick off his re-election campaign  on June 18 with a mega-rally in Florida, a state he must win in 2020 but where his numbers are softer than the campaign would like.

But just a week before the rally, Mr. Trump continues to function without a chief political strategist, people involved in his campaigns said. The president’s lead pollster, Mr. Fabrizio, is someone Mr. Trump resisted hiring in 2016, and his blunt approach is not always welcome by a candidate who prefers good news and can take a shoot-the-messenger approach to receiving information he does not like.

Longtime aides and advisers said they expected him to hit his stride once he had a clear opponent in front of him like he will have, for one day, in Iowa.

“President Trump is always strongest when he has a direct foil,” Mr. Miller said. “I can’t imagine him not taking advantage of the opportunity to jab at Biden.”

A version of this article appears in print on

June 10, 2019 , on Page

A

16

of the New York edition

 
 
 
WallyW
2.1  WallyW  replied to  JohnRussell @2    3 months ago

[deleted]

 
 
 
Tessylo
3  Tessylo    3 months ago

'Morning Consult Polls Show Trump Approval Plummeting In Key States'

jrSmiley_24_smiley_image.gifjrSmiley_24_smiley_image.gifjrSmiley_24_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
4  Ed-NavDoc    3 months ago

According to mediabias.com, morning consult is blatantly liberally biased and is known to use deliberately leading and loaded questions. Hardly a objective or non biased site. As a rule I distrust any political or election polling as they are known to be decidedly inaccurate with end results based solely on the number of people polled and areas where the demographics favor the people initiating the polls as they can easily cherry pick the answers to suit the results they want and circular file those they do not. This is true of both conservatives and liberals.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @4    3 months ago

The operative "poll" is the 2018 mid term elections. American voters turned on Trumpism. I see no reason to believe that feeling won't escalate over the next year and a half. 

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
4.1.1  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1    3 months ago

That may very well be true, but I still refuse to trust poll results that say it is. As someone said in the next post, I'll wait for election day or the day after and get the real results.

 
 
 
lib50
4.1.2  lib50  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @4.1.1    3 months ago

I agree, I don't believe anything until its over officially.  But there are ways to understand the trending and public interest in certain things that come along.  Its easy to see how Trumps shtick is losing its glow.  We all know he lies, we all know he is hateful, we all know he doesn't even know wtf he is doing, preferring to remain ignorant rather than take the time to listen and learn about the topic.   They don't need to bother trying to pretend he does.  I just don't think the conspiracy theories will take root in Americans outside the base.

 
 
 
It Is ME
6  It Is ME    3 months ago

I'll wait until election day and after.....thank you very much.

We all know how well polls did …… when they were really, really, really "Popular" in 2016 ! jrSmiley_98_smiley_image.gif

All "Polls" are now, is some resurrection of a failed sitcom !

 
 
 
JohnRussell
6.1  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  It Is ME @6    3 months ago
After being briefed on a devastating 17-state poll conducted by his campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, Mr. Trump told aides to deny that his internal polling showed him trailing Mr. Biden in many of the states he needs to win, even though he is also trailing in public polls from key states like Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And when top-line details of the polling leaked, including numbers showing the president lagging in a cluster of critical Rust Belt states, Mr. Trump instructed aides to say publicly that other data showed him doing well.
 
 
 
It Is ME
6.1.1  It Is ME  replied to  JohnRussell @6.1    3 months ago

From an Anonymous Source again ?

"The Princeton Election Consortium Survey finds Hillary Clinton has ‘more than 99% chance’ of winning election over Donald Trump"

 
 
 
JohnRussell
6.1.2  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  It Is ME @6.1.1    3 months ago

Keep holding on to that happy thought as reality sets in over the next 18 months. 

 
 
 
JohnRussell
6.1.3  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  It Is ME @6.1.1    3 months ago
From an Anonymous Source again ?

The pollsters name, Tony Fabrizio,, is in the text you copied.  Don't let facts interfere with your fun though. 

 
 
 
It Is ME
6.1.4  It Is ME  replied to  JohnRussell @6.1.3    3 months ago
The pollsters name, Tony Fabrizio,, is in the text you copied.

It was …… WRONG ……. RIGHT ?

I don't give fruit where any poll comes from. 

Now how 'bouts YOUR little poll ?

Actually right ….. wrong …… or just another ……. nyah (some source) for ratings ! jrSmiley_87_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
It Is ME
6.1.5  It Is ME  replied to  JohnRussell @6.1.2    3 months ago
Keep holding on to that happy thought as reality sets in over the next 18 months. 

I've heard that somewhere before …… hmmmmmmmm jrSmiley_87_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Sparty On
7  Sparty On    3 months ago

I guess some haven't learned their lessons from 2016.

C'est la vie ...... this too shall pass ...... again apparently.

 
 
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