Trump’s Economy Is Failing Exactly Where He Needs It to Succeed

  
Via:  john-russell  •  3 weeks ago  •  49 comments

Trump’s Economy Is Failing Exactly Where He Needs It to Succeed
Weakness in manufacturing in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan could doom the president’s re-election chances.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


When shockingly  poor data on U.S. manufacturing  was released Tuesday morning, President Donald Trump was ready with his usual response to any bad economic news: He blamed Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. Increasingly, however, it is getting harder for the president to avoid responsibility for regional weaknesses in the economy — and the effects on his chances for re-election could be devastating.

The current economy is tracking   dangerously close   to the one that derailed Hillary Clinton’s candidacy in 2016. Regardless of whether the U.S. is headed for   a full-scale recession , according to this latest data it has almost certainly entered a sectoral or mini-recession similar to 2015’s. The latest readings of the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturers survey are actually below those of early 2016, and the trajectory is far steeper.

512

From January 2015 to January 2016, the index slid from 54.1 to 48. (Numbers above 50 indicate expansion, while those below 50 indicate contraction.) Over the past six months, the index has collapsed from 55.3 to 47.8. To make matters worse, the index of new export orders — which have served as a rough guide of future readings —   has fallen to 41 .


In fact, there is not much in the outlook that is encouraging. While most of the U.S. economy is insulated from trade, manufacturing is linked to the rest of the world through several channels. First and most obvious are direct exports of U.S. heavy machinery. They take a double hit from tariffs, which raise the cost of their materials and also reduce foreign demand from trade-driven economies such as China, Germany and Japan.

Weaker national economies are   also a drag on oil prices . Attacks in Saudi Arabia have given them a bit of a boost recently, but weak global demand has weighed on them since the summer.  Low oil prices lead to slower investment in fracking in the U.S., which in turn leads to lower demand for manufactured equipment.

Lastly, retaliation from China has hit U.S. agriculture hard. That means farmers have less demand for new equipment. Just as the slump in 2015 was driven by falling demand for oil and agriculture products as the Chinese economy slowed, so this current one is propelled by the trade war.

This slowdown might not seem like a big deal. Indeed,   most Americans barely noticed   the 2015 dip. With a closely divided electorate, however, the slowdown was probably enough to tip the scales against the Democrats. Even more important this time around, sluggishness in manufacturing and agriculture is hitting particularly hard in several important battleground states.

Manufacturing employment growth in Wisconsin and Michigan has already fallen below the 2015 rate. Pennsylvania is dangerously close. At best, this makes it difficult for Trump to claim that his policies have led to a revival. At worst, it suggests that his policies have backfired.

Trump could conceivably turn the situation around, but at this point it’s hard to see how. Even if he announced an official end to the trade war tomorrow, it would be months before farmers and businesses could be confident that he was serious. After that, there would be yet more delays before equipment orders rebounded, and still more before a rise in manufacturing employment.

So maybe it’s unsurprising that the president is sticking to his guns and blaming the Fed. And while that strategy might work with his die-hard supporters, swing voters tend to be   among the least informed about campaign narratives   and instead vote based on economic conditions they themselves experience. As those conditions deteriorate, so do the president’s chances for re-election.






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JohnRussell
1  seeder  JohnRussell    3 weeks ago

512

No wonder he wants to talk about Shifty Schiff all day. 

 
 
 
Jack_TX
1.1  Jack_TX  replied to  JohnRussell @1    3 weeks ago

Which Democrat are you attempting to put forward as my alternative option for next November?

 
 
 
Karri
2  Karri    3 weeks ago

Trump's economic policies have backfired?  Who wodda thunk! (/s/)

 
 
 
lady in black
3  lady in black    3 weeks ago

The pos liar in chief thinks the stock market took a dive because of the impeachment talk and the fed.  The asswipe doesn't get it's him and his trade bs and the tariffs that he said and I quote...tariffs will pay for themselves.  

 
 
 
XDm9mm
4  XDm9mm    3 weeks ago

And of course it's 

Bloomberg  Opinion
I'd suggest that the Bloomberg organization (as in Michael Bloomberg, aka Trump hating wannabe Democrat Presidential candidate) also look beyond our shores for the real cause of any American slowdown.
They can go here of all places, yet another Trump hating organization:
 

5 of the world's biggest economies are at risk of recession

By Charles Riley,   CNN Business

Updated 10:38 AM ET, Wed August 14, 2019

London (CNN Business) Five big economies are at risk of recession. It won't take much to push them over the edge.

The   British economy shrunk   in the second quarter, and growth flat lined in   Italy . Data published Wednesday   show Germany's economy , the   world's fourth largest , contracted in the three months to June.
"The bottom line is that the German economy is teetering on the edge of recession," said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics.
Mexico   just dodged a recession— usually defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction — and its economy is expected to remain weak this year. And data suggest that   Brazil   slipped into recession in the second quarter.
Germany, Britain, Italy, Brazil and Mexico each rank among the world's largest 20 economies.   Singapore   and   Hong Kong , which are smaller but still serve as vital hubs for finance and trade, are also suffering.
While growth has been dragged lower in each country by a specific cocktail of factors, a global manufacturing slump and a sharp drop in business confidence have made matters worse.
China's massive economy is growing at the slowest pace in nearly three decades as the country   wages a prolonged trade war with the United States , which will impose new taxes on Chinese exports in September and December.
"The common feature is the weak global backdrop," said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics.
The International Monetary Fund last month   cut its forecast for global growth   this year to 3.2%, the weakest rate of expansion since 2009 .   It also downgraded its expectations for 2020 to 3.5%.
Investors are increasingly worried. The   bond market   is flashing warning signs and more than a third of asset managers surveyed by Bank of America expect a global recession in the next 12 months.

Please read more here:  SOURCE:  https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/14/economy/recession-risk-economies/index.html

 
 
 
Dulay
4.1  Dulay  replied to  XDm9mm @4    3 weeks ago

So you're saying Obama wasn't to blame for the slow economy. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
4.1.1  XDm9mm  replied to  Dulay @4.1    3 weeks ago
So you're saying Obama wasn't to blame for the slow economy. 

I know you have a penchant for playing word games, but I really need to know SPECIFICALLY where did I mention "Obama"?   I know for a fact that I did not, so I must then surmise that you are once again pulling shit out of your ass in a pathetic effort at instigating a fight.  

I'm not playing.  Find another participant.

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.2  Texan1211  replied to  XDm9mm @4.1.1    3 weeks ago

A few "gifted" folks here are really, really good at stating exactly what they wanted you to state and then attempting to argue THAT instead of exactly what you DID state.

Intellectually dishonest and a very, very poor and weak attempt at actual debate.

Good on you for not participating in that crap!

 
 
 
XDm9mm
4.1.3  XDm9mm  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.2    3 weeks ago
A few "gifted" folks here are really, really good at stating exactly what they wanted you to state and then attempting to argue THAT instead of exactly what you DID state.

Intellectually dishonest and a very, very poor and weak attempt at actual debate.

Good on you for not participating in that crap!

Well, thank you young man!!

I'm seriously tired of the word game cole slaw that some try to engage in.  

I have noticed that when directly challenged, more often than not, they are never heard from again...  at least on that thread.

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.4  Texan1211  replied to  XDm9mm @4.1.3    3 weeks ago

And isn't it rather interesting that some of those who constantly bemoan "strawman arguments" are actually some of the biggest users of same?

I looked and looked and looked, and nowhere could I find the word Obama in your post!

 
 
 
Dulay
4.1.5  Dulay  replied to  XDm9mm @4.1.1    3 weeks ago
I know you have a penchant for playing word games, but I really need to know SPECIFICALLY where did I mention "Obama"?   

I know for a fact that I did not, so I must then surmise that you are once again pulling shit out of your ass in a pathetic effort at instigating a fight.   

I'm not playing.  Find another participant. 

Gee XD, I just thought that since you 'look beyond our shores for the real cause of any American slowdown', for Trump, you'd be willing to do the same for Obama. If not, it looks pretty hypocritical and sycophantic. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.6  Texan1211  replied to  Dulay @4.1.5    3 weeks ago

Strawman argument.

Any old way you try to 'splain it.

 
 
 
Dulay
4.1.7  Dulay  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.2    3 weeks ago
A few "gifted" folks here are really, really good at stating exactly what they wanted you to state and then attempting to argue THAT instead of exactly what you DID state.

A few cowardly folks here are really, really good at posting back door comments about other members. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.8  Texan1211  replied to  Dulay @4.1.7    3 weeks ago

Not my fault you engage in strawman arguments.

Check yourself!

 
 
 
Dulay
4.1.9  Dulay  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.6    3 weeks ago
Strawman argument.
Any old way you try to 'splain it.

No. 

First because asking whether one politician will be held to the same standard as another politician isn't a strawman. 

Secondly, because I didn't make an argument, I asked a fucking question which I note XD refused to answer. 

 
 
 
It Is ME
4.1.10  It Is ME  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.8    3 weeks ago
Check yourself!

"That one is dark, and can't see the light. Everywhere the one looks, it's dark, and can't see."

 
 
 
Dulay
4.1.11  Dulay  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.8    3 weeks ago
Not my fault you engage in strawman arguments. Check yourself!

It's your fault that you posted a back door comment AND that you consistently use a word even though you don't understand it's definition. 

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
4.1.13  Trout Giggles  replied to  Dulay @4.1.11    3 weeks ago

"backdoor comment"

I like that.

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.14  Texan1211  replied to  Dulay @4.1.11    3 weeks ago
It's your fault that you posted a back door comment AND that you consistently use a word even though you don't understand it's definition. 

A straw man is a common form of argument and is an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent's argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not presented by that opponent.

Sounds EXACTLY like what you posted in regards to Obama--which he NEVER mentioned!

Yes, I fucking know what a strawman argument is--and I looked at yours! A classic example of one!

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.15  Texan1211  replied to  Dulay @4.1    3 weeks ago
So you're saying Obama wasn't to blame for the slow economy. 

Where do you think he stated any such nonsense? Please, please, PLEASE, QUOTE HIM STATING WHAT YOU NOW CLAIM HE STATED.

I am willing to bet a week off of here that you can't because it is obviously a strawman argument.

Prove me wrong!

Take the bet!

 
 
 
It Is ME
4.1.16  It Is ME  replied to  Trout Giggles @4.1.13    3 weeks ago
"backdoor comment" I like that.

Small !

OR

Large !

 
 
 
It Is ME
4.1.17  It Is ME  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.15    3 weeks ago
Where do you think he stated any such nonsense?

"Word Salad" to follow in

3

2

?

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.18  Texan1211  replied to  Dulay @4.1.9    3 weeks ago

Keep on 'splaining!

It just makes it worse with every inane post and denial of what is obviously posted by you.

You didn't ask a question. Look at your post again. Read it carefully.

Here it is so you don't have to look too hard for it:

So you're saying Obama wasn't to blame for the slow economy. 

NOT A FUCKING QUESTION. IT IS A STATEMENT YOU CLAIMED HE MADE.

Take my bet. Quote him and I will shut up and take a week off.

 
 
 
Dulay
4.1.19  Dulay  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.15    3 weeks ago
I am willing to bet a week off of here that you can't because it is obviously a strawman argument.

Well Tex, I don't have to bet because you've proven that you don't know what a strawman argument is. I can't understand it for you. 

 
 
 
Dulay
4.1.20  Dulay  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.14    3 weeks ago
Yes, I fucking know what a strawman argument is--and I looked at yours! A classic example of one!

Yes, you READ the definition but you don't UNDERSTAND what it MEANS Tex. 

Tell you what, block quote where I refuted:

an argument that was not presented by that opponent.
 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.21  Texan1211  replied to  Dulay @4.1.19    3 weeks ago
Well Tex, I don't have to bet because you've proven that you don't know what a strawman argument is. I can't understand it for you. 

Oh, FFS.

Take a look at post 4.1.14 

I posted what a strawman argument is. Do you now dispute that definition? WTF?

You won't bet because even you recognize that what you posted is, indeed, a STRAWMAN ARGUMENT, and that you asked him NO QUESTION despite your ridiculous claim otherwise.

In the meantime, keep on 'splaining!

it is rather entertaining to see the pretzel logic!

 
 
 
Dulay
4.1.22  Dulay  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.21    3 weeks ago
Gee XD, I just thought that since you 'look beyond our shores for the real cause of any American slowdown', for Trump, you'd be willing to do the same for Obama. If not, it looks pretty hypocritical and sycophantic. 

Gee XD, I just thought that since you 'look beyond our shores for the real cause of any American slowdown', for Trump, you'd be willing to do the same for Obama. If not, it looks pretty hypocritical and sycophantic. 
 
 
 
XDm9mm
4.1.23  XDm9mm  replied to  Dulay @4.1.5    3 weeks ago
Gee XD, I just thought that since you 'look beyond our shores for the real cause of any American slowdown', for Trump, you'd be willing to do the same for Obama. If not, it looks pretty hypocritical and sycophantic. 

Gee Dulay,

I see you still can't cite specifically where I said anything about Obama and are now trying to play your word games.  I'll say it again and hopefully this time you will understand it's meaning.

I'm not playing.  Find another participant.

Or failing that, show me SPECIFICALLY where I mentioned Obama.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
4.1.24  XDm9mm  replied to  Dulay @4.1.9    3 weeks ago
Secondly, because I didn't make an argument, I asked a fucking question which I note XD refused to answer. 

Maybe if you answer my question, I might consider your "fucking question".

 
 
 
XDm9mm
4.1.25  XDm9mm  replied to  Texan1211 @4.1.21    3 weeks ago
In the meantime, keep on 'splaining! it is rather entertaining to see the pretzel logic!

At the risk of being accused of repeating myself, I'll provide the following posted above:

Well, thank you young man!!

I'm seriously tired of the word game cole slaw that some try to engage in.  

I have noticed that when directly challenged, more often than not, they are never heard from again...  at least on that thread.

And to support that position, look no further than 4.1.23 and 4.1.24 below.

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.26  Texan1211  replied to  Dulay @4.1.22    2 weeks ago

Completely unresponsive and irrelevant to anything--anything at all-that I have posted to you.

gee, I am shocked!

oh, here---/S

 
 
 
Texan1211
4.1.27  Texan1211  replied to  Dulay @4.1.20    2 weeks ago

Nice word games.

All you have to do is simply post a quote where he stated what you claimed.

Can't do that, we are done here!

LMMFAO!!!

 
 
 
JohnRussell
5  seeder  JohnRussell    3 weeks ago

I hope the people of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania remember the old saying 

"Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me."

 
 
 
MUVA
5.1  MUVA  replied to  JohnRussell @5    3 weeks ago

I hope they remember make america great again or one bird in hand is worth two in the Bush or maybe a friend with weed is a friend indeed.  

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
5.2  Dean Moriarty  replied to  JohnRussell @5    3 weeks ago

I certainly hope they won't be fooled by the socialists and their free crap or higher taxes again.  

 
 
 
JBB
5.2.1  JBB  replied to  Dean Moriarty @5.2    3 weeks ago

Surely you do not mean giveaways like Trump's giant tax cuts for the already uber wealthy and big multinational corporations that blew up the deficit to more than a trillion dollars during relatively good economic times? 

 
 
 
MUVA
5.2.2  MUVA  replied to  JBB @5.2.1    3 weeks ago

I got a tax cut I’m not Uber wealthy just extremely comfortable.

 
 
 
MUVA
5.2.3  MUVA  replied to  JBB @5.2.1    3 weeks ago

And no.

 
 
 
Sunshine
5.3  Sunshine  replied to  JohnRussell @5    3 weeks ago

I hope they remember...

"A fool and his money are soon departed"

 
 
 
lib50
5.3.1  lib50  replied to  Sunshine @5.3    3 weeks ago

I'll remember the cost of tariffs to my budget, no worries.  Tariffs and trade are a reason for the stalling economy.  Oh, and check out how many dairy farms in Wisconsin went under just since Trump has been president.  Manufacturing also down.  The deficit has exploded with the tax cuts to the top and the lower and middle classes are hit by both the tax cuts (didn't help them and they were temp if they did) and tariffs, which go into most consumer goods purchased by Americans. 

 
 
 
MUVA
5.3.2  MUVA  replied to  lib50 @5.3.1    2 weeks ago

No

 
 
 
Ronin2
5.3.3  Ronin2  replied to  lib50 @5.3.1    2 weeks ago

So maybe you would care to answer why the renegotiated NAFTA deal is cooling on Nancy's desk? Mexico and Canada have both signed it months ago. That is also a part of the problem. Of course the Dems can't give Trump the win.

As for the Tariff wars. What is the Democrat's plan to deal with the massive trade imbalances with China and our so called "allies" in Europe? Drop them all and beg forgiveness? Pretend that the US is not being robbed blind while being the military for the world?

Trump bad. Got it. At least he is trying to fix the damn mess.  Which is more than can be said for the establishment politicians on both sides of the isle.  

 
 
 
Krishna
6  Krishna    3 weeks ago

Anyone remember this?

Trump said trade wars were ‘good’ and ‘easy to win’

I wonder how  going to take for him to figure out the actual facts?

 
 
 
JBB
6.1  JBB  replied to  Krishna @6    3 weeks ago

Tariffs Are Taxes and Everybody Loses In Trade Wars...

 
 
 
†hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh
6.1.1  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh  replied to  JBB @6.1    3 weeks ago

If the ultimate goal is free trade and the country you are trading with is sticking it all up in you, you have no choice but to tit for tat until they remove the tariffs.

Global trade 101

Providing trade welfare to China does not serve the people.

 
 
 
It Is ME
6.1.2  It Is ME  replied to  JBB @6.1    3 weeks ago
Tariffs Are Taxes and Everybody Loses In Trade Wars...

Only those that insist on buying the products that had a "Tariff" put on them.

Other companies and countries make the same stuff too ya know !

Buy their stuff instead !

Remember.....Buy American ? No Tariffs there.....right ?

 
 
 
lib50
6.1.3  lib50  replied to  It Is ME @6.1.2    3 weeks ago

Says someone who doesn't understand the global economy.

 
 
 
It Is ME
6.1.4  It Is ME  replied to  lib50 @6.1.3    3 weeks ago
Says someone who doesn't understand the global economy.

Says someone that actually is in Business, and actually owns that business ! 

Your accomplishment on Global business Knowledge, or just business knowledge in general, is …..what again ? jrSmiley_87_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
MUVA
6.1.5  MUVA  replied to  lib50 @6.1.3    2 weeks ago

And you do to funny

 
 
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